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Trend BarometerReal Estate Investment Market
Switzerland 2017
Page 3
Overview of content
Trend Barometer Real EstateInvestment Market Switzerland2017
Swiss real estate transaction market, pages 6-7
Survey structure and methodology, pages 10-11
Market outlook and strategies Switzerland 2017, pages 12-30
Key messages Switzerland 2017, pages 32-33
Your contacts, page 35
Swiss Real Estate Transaction Market
Page 6
Selected Swiss commercial real estate transactions...
Quarter Seller Buyer Target Properties Price (CHF m)
Q1 Swiss Prime Site SPA Immobilien Schweiz Business park in Solothurn 12 90
Q1 Swiss Prime Site SPA Immobilien Schweiz Office building in Lucerne 1 59
Q1 Implenia UBS Office building in Muri (Bern) 1 38
Q1 Swiss Prime Site SPA Immobilien Schweiz Retail property in St. Gallen 1 27
Q1 Swiss Prime Site SPA Immobilien Schweiz Hotel in Geneva 1 26
Q2 Heinz Häusler Real Estate InvestmentAG Swiss Prime Site Office building in Baar 1 62
Q2 Unknown Swiss Finance & Property Office building in Zurich 1 58
Q2 Banque Heritage Swiss Life Office building in Geneva 1 57
Q2 Publica Swiss Prime Site Retail property in Lucerne 1 53
Q2 Fortress Paper GAM OBO Procimmo Swiss CommercialFund II Business park in Landquart (Graubünden) 1 45
Q3 Unknown PSP Swiss Property Office building in Zurich 1 145
Q3 Procimmo Swiss Commercial Fund I UBS Office building in Eysins 1 58
Q3 Swiss Prime Site Swiss Life Retail property in Geneva 1 43
Seller groups Buyer groups► The active seller groups in 2016 include
real estate companies.
Transaction size► Investment foundations and real estate
companies are the primary buyers.► Commercial property transactions range
from small to midsize in volume.
Page 7
Quarter Seller Buyer Target Properties
Price (CHFm)
Q1 Swiss Prime Site SPA Immobilien Schweiz Residential property in Zurich 137 96
Q2 Unknown Residentia Residential property in Monte Carasso (Ticino) 76 27
Q2 Swiss Finance & Property Unknown Residential property in Winterthur Unknown 23
Q3 Unknown SF Sustainable Property Fund Residential property in Spreitenbach (Aargau) 52 20
Q3 Unknown SF Sustainable Property Fund Residential property in Lausen (Basel) 50 19
Q3 Unknown CSA Real Estate Switzerland Residential property in Walenstadt (St. Gallen) 36 17
Q3 Unknown SF Sustainable Property Fund Residential property in Richterswil (Zurich) 31 16
Q3 Unknown Raiffeisen Futura Immo Fonds Residential property in Burgdorf (Bern) 44 16
...and residential property transactions in 2016
Seller groups Buyer groups► Information on the seller is not usually
published.
Transaction size► Real estate funds are the main buyer group. ► The transaction volumes for residential
properties ranged from small to medium-sized.
► Larger portfolio transactions remain theexception in Switzerland.
Trend Barometer Real EstateInvestment Market Switzerland 2017
Page 10
► The results of the study are based on our survey conducted in October 2016. Around50 investors who have been active on the Swiss real estate market in recent years tookpart.
► The survey mainly covers the following issues:
► General assessment of the real estate investment market in Switzerland in 2017by active market participants
► Investigating investors’ strategies for real estate market developments inSwitzerland
Trend Barometer Real Estate Investment MarketInvestor groups► Banks
► Closed-end real estate funds► Real estate companies/REITs
► Institutional investors
► Asset managers► Opportunity/private equity funds
► Private/family offices► Housing associations
► Others
► EY Real Estate Switzerland conductedthe survey for the 7th time since 2011.
► During October and November 2016,around 50 investors gave their views ontheir expectations for the coming year.
Background Objectives► As well as the predefined answers, participants
were able to provide individual comments oneach question.
► The statements shown in the next slide arereproduced in anonymized form and some havebeen combined with similar assessments.
Statements► Views on the Swiss real estate investment
market in the coming year.► Insight into the strategy that investors will
pursue in Switzerland next year.
Our trend barometer covers a broad spectrum of investor groups
Page 11
Views on the Swiss transaction market in recent years
► Prices of office and hotel properties inprime locations are expected to remainstable.
► Prices of residential properties in primelocations are expected to rise.
Price trend International► Switzerland is viewed almost unanimously as an
attractive location for real estate investments.
Attractiveness► Switzerland continues to be regarded as an
attractive country for real estate investmentscompared with other countries.
► Pressure to deliver returns could mean thatSwitzerland loses some of its appeal goingforward, however.
2015
“Switzerland remains a safehaven for real estateinvestments.”
1
3 “There will be growing pressureto cut costs further and increaseefficiency.”
2 “The office and retail propertymarket will see downwardcorrections in prices.”
2016
“Switzerland remains an attractivedestination for real estateinvestments.”
1
3 “Switzerland’s stability has apositive impact on the market’sattractiveness and is unlikely to bejeopardized by politicaluncertainty.”
2 “Prices for premium propertieshave passed their peak.”
2017
“Switzerland is still an attractivelocation for real estateinvestments.”
1
3 “Demographic change will have aconsiderable impact on pricetrends.”
2 “The price of office and retailproperty will stabilize.”
Page 12
17%
73%
10%
not very attractiveattractivevery attractive
Switzerland’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments
Wording of the question: “In absolute terms, how do you rate Switzerland’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2017?”
90% of respondents rate Switzerland as an attractive or veryattractive investment location...
Key messages► The vast majority of respondents
(90%) continue to view Switzerlandas an attractive or very attractivelocation for real estate investmentsin 2017.
► Attractiveness is expected todecrease year-on-year (2016: 91%considered Switzerland attractive orvery attractive).
Statements► “Political stability, a solid economic situation and sustained price levels are some of the reasons why Switzerland is still extremely attractive
for long-term investments.”► “As long as interest rates remain low, returns on the real estate market will remain on the decline.”► “The earnings situation is very sustainable and offers a wide range of attractive financing options.”
Page 13
Wording of the question: “How do you rate Switzerland’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2017 compared with other European countries?”
… also in comparison with other European countries
Switzerland’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investmentscompared with other European countriesKey messages
► A majority (73%) of respondents seeSwitzerland as an attractive or veryattractive investment locationcompared to other Europeancountries.
► Here too the result is a little lesspositive than last year’s survey(2016: 76%).
► ”Pressure on returns is causing the Swiss market to lose some of its appeal in European comparison. On a Swiss level, however, the real estatemarket still has some interesting potential.“
► ”The mass immigration initiative and the departure of expats are severely depressing demand.“► ”Real estate prices in other European countries (with the exception of Germany) are generally lower, relatively speaking, than in Switzerland.
Given a moderate uptick in the eurozone, real estate investments in selected European countries will likely gain in appeal.“
Statements
19%
very attractive attractive not very attractive
54%
27%
Page 14
Influence of the real estate market environment in 2017
Key messages
► The vast majority expect the lowinterest rate environment to continue in2017 (96%).
► Most of those surveyed believe thatstrategic alliances between real estatecompanies and PropTech start-ups willincrease in 2017 (81%).
► The majority of respondents think thatpolitical over-regulation will also triggeruncertainty on the Swiss real estatemarket (79%).
► The majority of those surveyed expectthat property management will beinfluenced by smart home technologies(69%).
► Most respondents do not think thatcrowdfunding will be a significant formof financing and investment (75%).
Wording of the question: “Which of the following statements about the Swiss real estate market environment in 2017 do you agree with?”
The low interest rate environment will continue in 2017.
The impact of IFRS 16 (accounting for leases) is not yet onthe radar of many market participants.
Project developers are the winners of the positivemarket environment.
Strategic alliances between established real estate industrycompanies and innovative PropTech start-ups will increase.
Political overregulation will also trigger uncertainty on theSwiss real estate market.
Asset management is becoming more and more important tojustify the currently high real estate prices.
Property management is becoming more efficient, sustainableand cost-effective on the back of smart home technologies.
Crowdfunding will become an important form of financing andinvestment in the real estate industry.
75% 21% 4%
17% 72% 11%
15% 66% 15% 4%
13% 68% 19%
41% 38% 21%
40% 32% 19% 9%
17% 52% 31%
2% 23% 52% 23%
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Page 15
The Swiss real estate transaction market
Key messages
► The majority of those asked expect non-traditional asset classes to gain traction(89%).
► Like in the previous year, a highpercentage of participants expect Swissinvestors to step up their foreigninvestment activities (79%; 2016: 79%).
► Product shortages will continue to driveup prices, and initial returns on core realestate will see a further decline (80% ineach case).
► Two-thirds of those surveyed think that2017 transaction volumes will be belowthe level seen in 2016 (66%).
► Just under two-thirds believe that thereal estate market in the major Swisscities could be headed toward a bubble(64%).
Wording of the question: “Which of the following statements about the Swiss real estate transaction market in 2017 do you agree with?”
Non-traditional asset classes (parking garages, nursing homes,student dorms, micro apartments) will...
Foreign investments remain attractive for Swiss investors givenhigher return expectations.
Product shortages will continue to drive up prices.
Initial returns on core real estate will see a further decline in 2017.
Asian investors come into play in Switzerland primarily for large-scale transactions.
The willingness to conclude forward-funding/forward deals tosecure properties will increase.
The overall transaction volume in 2017 will be below the 2016level.
A bubble may form in the major Swiss cities.
The size of real estate deals will decrease in 2017.
Brexit will have a tangible effect on the real estate transactionmarket in 2017.
16% 73% 11%
16% 5%52%27%
25%
25%
55% 18% 2%
55% 20%
14% 63% 21% 2%
28%49%23%
18% 48% 34%
34% 2%48%16%
12% 43% 45%
2% 28% 63% 7%
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Page 16
Expectations for price trends vary sharply depending on locationand usage category (1/2)
Wording of the question: “What is your expectation for property prices in Switzerland in 2017, depending on usage category and location?”
Office RetailKey messages
► Just under one half of thosesurveyed expect prices for officeproperty in prime locations to remainstable (53%). The other half thinksprices will increase (20%; 2016: 12%)or decrease (27%; 2016: 36%).
► Declining prices are likely for officebuildings in subprime locations (59%,2016: 70%) and peripheral zones(86%, 2016: 88%).
► The trend for retail properties issimilar: stable (43%; 2016: 61%) orfalling (48%, 2016: 27%) prices inprime locations, but a negativeoutlook for subprime locations (68%,2016: 73%) and properties inperipheral zones (86%, 2016: 85%).
SubprimePrime Peripheral
20%
5%0%
Rising Stable Falling Rising Stable Falling
53%
36%
27%
86%
9%
0% 0%
43%
32%
14%
48%
68%
86%
14%
59%
Page 17
Expectations for price trends vary sharply depending on locationand usage category (2/2)
Wording of the question: “What is your expectation for property prices in Switzerland in 2017, depending on usage category and location?”
ResidentialKey messages
► Expectations for the residentialconstruction sector in primelocations are more optimistic, withrising (52%; 2016: 42%) or stable(39%, 2016: 58%) prices expected.
► Just under two-thirds of thosesurveyed expect stable prices forresidential buildings in subprimelocations (61%, 2016: 76%) andperipheral zones (59%, 2016: 42%).
► As regards hotels, the majority ofrespondents anticipate a stable pricetrend in prime locations (69%, 2016:53%), but falling prices in subprimelocations (54%, 2016: 62%) andperipheral zones (78%, 2016: 81%).
Hotels
SubprimePrime Peripheral
Rising Stable Falling Rising Stable Falling
52%
25%
14%
39%
61%59%
9%
14%
27%
11%
5% 2%
69%
41%
20% 20%
54%
78%
Page 18
Which groups of sellers will be most active in 2017?
Wording of the question: “In your opinion, how active will the following groups of sellers be in Switzerland during 2017?”
Seller groups
Active Moderately active Cautious
Key messages
► Banks are expected to take anincreased and thus the primary roleas sellers in 2017 versus theprevious year (31%; 2016: 21%).
► As in the prior year, the most activeseller groups are also expected toinclude opportunity/PE funds (24%,2016: 30%) and real estatecompanies (14%, 2016: 22%).
► These are followed in 4th place byhousing associations (14%; 2016:12%) and insurers and pension funds(14%, 2016: 22%).
► According to expectations, the publicsector (5%, 2016: 6%) will be lessactive as a seller group.
Banks
Opportunity/PE funds
Real estate companies
Housing associations
Insurers/pension funds
Open-ended funds Corporates
(Non-property) Other
International funds
Closed-ended funds
Public sector
31% 55% 14%
24%
50%
48%
55%
41%
29%
29%
39%
49%46%
56%
64%
61%
49%
31%
38%
36%
52%24%
14%
14%
14%
10%
10%
7%
5%
5%
Page 19
Which groups of buyers will be most active in 2017?
Wording of the question: “In your opinion, how active will the following groups of buyers be in Switzerland during 2017?”
Buyer groups
Active Moderately active Cautious
Key messages
► As in the previous year, insurers areexpected to be among the most activebuyers (79%, 2016: 73%).
► Compared with the previous year, buyeractivity is expected to be significantlyhigher (52%, 2016: 36%) for open-ended funds, and lower (33%, 2016:44%) for real estate companies.
► In line with the prior-year trend, privateinvestors/family offices are anticipatedto remain active buyers (45%, 2016:55%).
► Sovereign wealth funds and the publicsector are again expected to be lessactive buyers in 2017, at 24% and 5%respectively (2016: 15% and 9%).
Insurers/pension funds
Open-ended funds
Private individuals/family offices
Housing associations
Opportunity/PE funds
Real estate companies/REITs
Closed-end funds
Banks
Sovereign wealth funds
Other international funds
Public sector
79%
52%
45%
45%
44%
33%
29%
27%
24%
24%
5% 36% 59%
50%
43%
32% 41%
33%
26%
56%
57%
46%
45%
48%
41% 7%
21%
7%
10%
10%
10%
15%
Page 20
What will be the greatest impediments to transactions in 2017?
Wording of the question: “What do you think will be the greatest impediments to successful transaction closings in Switzerland in 2017?”
Greatest impediments to deal flows
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Key messages
► The mismatch in price expectationsbetween buyers and sellers (96%,2016: 100%) is seen as the biggestimpediment to deal flows.
► Like last year, the level of equityrequired by debt providers is notviewed as a major hurdle (52%,2016: 49%).
► Limited availability of subordinatedor senior debt funding is seen as lessof an impediment to deal flows (38%,2016: 33% and 29%, 2016: 21%).
Price mismatch between buyers and sellers
Level of equity required
Limited availability of junior debt funding/mezzaninecapital
Limited availability of senior debt funding
56%
21%
5% 33% 45% 17%
2447%24%5%
31% 31% 17%
40%
Page 21
How are real estate credit conditions expected to evolve in 2017?
Wording of the question: “How will real estate credit conditions evolve in 2017?”
Change in real estate credit conditionsKey messages
► A slight majority (55%) expect loanterms to tighten (2016: 70%).
► The majority of respondents do notanticipate a change in interest ratesor margins in 2017, at 69% and 71%respectively (2016: 79% and 52%).
► About two-thirds of those surveyedalso think the collateral value willremain the same (66%).
Increase Remain unchanged Fall
Loan terms 55% 45%
19% 69% 12%
12%71%17%
10% 66% 24%
Interest rates
Margin
Collateral value
Page 22
The following property classes will be popular with investors in2017
Wording of the question: “How heavily do you envisage focusing on investments in the following property classes in 2017?”
Strong or moderate investment focusKey messages
► Investors will continue to focusheavily on residential real estate(61%, 2016: 60%).
► One-third of those surveyed willplace a moderate focus on officeproperties (32%, 2016: 44%), downon the prior-year figure.
► As in the previous year, only aminority of investors will be putting amoderate to strong focus on retailproperties in 2017 (17%, 2016:19%).
Retail Residential OthersOffice
17%
2%
Strong
61%
17%
32%
15%22% 21%
Moderate
Page 23
For office and retail the focus is Zurich
Wording of the question: “Which cities in Switzerland will your investments mainly focus on in 2017?”
Office and retail*
*Respondents could choose more than one option
Key messages
► As in the previous year, Zurich is themost attractive location forinvestment in offices and retail, at23% and 24% respectively (2016:26% and 22%), followed by Geneva,both at 17% (2016: 14%), and Basel,at 16% and 17% (2016: 20% and18%).
► Investor demand for retail propertieshas fallen in Bern (9%), Lucerne (4%)and St. Gallen (7%) compared with2016 (12%, 16% and 8%respectively), but has risen inLausanne (15%; 2016: 12%). 12%).
23%
17%16%
8%
4%
11%
2%
12%
7%
24%
17% 17%
9%
4%
15%
2%4%
7%
Zurich Geneva Basel Bern Lucerne Lausanne Lugano Zug St. Gallen
Office Retail
Page 24
No clear focus in residential real estate
Wording of the question: “Which cities in Switzerland will your investments mainly focus on in 2017?”
Residential*Key messages
► As in 2016, demand for residentialreal estate is not focused on any onelocation.
► Zurich, Basel, Bern and Lucerneremain popular with investors, at15%, 14%, 14% and 15% respectively(2016: 19%, 16%, 13% and 16%). 15%
7%
14% 14% 15%
7%5%
Residential
Zurich Geneva Basel Bern Lucerne Lausanne Lugano
*Respondents could choose more than one option
Page 25
Most attractive exit options for real estate investments in 2017
Wording of the question: “Which exit strategies do you envisage in 2017?”
Key messages
► The majority of those surveyed arenot planning an exit in 2017 (57%,2016: 77%); for 2017, the preferredoption, if at all, would seem to bedirect sale as a single property (29%,2016: 37%).
► Strategies such as portfolio directsales (10%; 2016: 13%) and issues ofpublic funds (2%) are becoming lessimportant as exit options.
29%
10%
0% 2% 2% 0%
57%
Dire
ctsa
le—
sing
leas
set
Dire
ctsa
le—
portf
olio
Clo
sed-
end
fund
s
Rea
lest
ate
com
ps./R
EIT
s(IP
Os)
Mut
ualf
unds
Spe
cial
fund
s
No
exit
Potential exit strategies*
*Respondents could choose more than one option
Page 26
Key messages
► The vast majority of those surveyedagreed with the statement thatdemographic change will have asignificant impact on the propertymarket in 2017 (88%).
► 74% of respondents regard interestrates as a relevant megatrend for thereal estate market.
► Other perceived trends on the realestate market include politicalinstability (71%), digitization (61%)and the globalization of investmentflows.
Most important megatrends in 2017
Wording of the question: “Which megatrends will have the biggest influence on the Swiss property market in 2017?”
Megatrends 2017*
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Demographic change
Interest rate developments
Political instability/uncertainty
Urbanization/rural depopulation
Digitization
Globalization of investment flows
Climate change
26%
40%
23%
10%
20%
5%
5% 15% 53%
44% 43%
27%
8%
7%
7%26%
32%41%
57%
48% 21% 8%
2%24%34%
62% 12%
*Respondents could choose more than one option
Page 27
15%
52%
33%
21% 21%
58%
30%
8%
16%
11%24%
46%65%
Wording of the question: “What will be the leading trends in the residential category in 2017?”
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Residential trends:
“Modular building needsto be taken seriously
again for new housingconstruction projects.”
“The gap between pricefalls in rural regions and
rent/housing priceincreases in urban areas
is widening.”
“Smart buildingtechnology is the
future of the housingindustry.”
“A tightening of rentalprice policy in theportfolio is to be
expected.”
Page 28
24%
39%
37%
24%
56%
20%
55%
25%20%
49%
2%
49%
Wording of the question: “What will be the leading trends in the office category in 2017?”
Office trends:
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
“Space savings canprimarily be achieved
through modern officespace concepts.”
“New user groups (e.g.,start-ups) are
becoming more andmore important as
renters versustraditional sectors.”
“Office design andamenities are becoming
increasingly important forattracting and motivating
staff.”
“Rentable co-workingspaces have
established themselvesas a niche product.”
Page 29
58%
11%
33%
56%
28%
60%
6%6%14%
25%
3%
Wording of the question: “What will be the leading trends in the hotel category in 2017?”
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Hotel trends:
“The budget andmidscale segment will
replace the upscalesegment
as the most popularinvestment segment.”
“Purchases ofmidsized hotel chains
and brand-independent hotels
continue to determinethe growth of large
hotel groups.”
“The ContinentalEuropean hotel markets
will not see anysignificant increase intheir key performance
indicators as a result ofBrexit.”
Page 30
3% 15%
47%
35%
42%
5%18%
35/
54%
28%18%
54%
3%
43%
Wording of the question: “What will be the leading trends in the retail category in 2017?”
Retail trends:
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
“Delivery services arecapturing significant
market shares in foodretailing.”
“Shopping tourism willincrease even further inborder-adjacent areas(CHF/EUR exchange
rate).”
“Online retailing hasalready claimed its first
victims in the retailsector.”
“Competitive pressurein the retail industry is
leading to creativeshopping experience
concepts.”
Key messagesSwitzerland 2017
Page 32
Attractiveness
► A clear majority of participants believe Switzerland will remainan attractive or very attractive location for real estateinvestments in 2017.
Real estate market environment
► The low interest rate environment will very likely continue in2017.
► Smart home technologies are expected to have an impact onproperty management.
► It is not anticipated that crowdfunding will gain ground as aform of financing and investment.
Real estate transaction market
► Non-traditional asset classes will be accorded majorimportance in 2017.
► Investments abroad will retain their appeal.
► An additional price increase is expected due to productshortages.
► Transaction volumes are expected to be lower than in 2016.
Price expectations
► Prices of office buildings and retail properties in subprimelocations and peripheral zones are expected to trenddownward.
► Prices of residential properties in prime locations willremain stable or increase.
► The majority of those surveyed expect prices forresidential properties in subprime locations to remainstable.
Seller and buyer groups
► Alongside banks, opportunity/private equity funds andreal estate companies will be among the most activegroups of sellers in 2017.
► On the buyer side, insurers/pension funds, open-endedfunds and private investors/family offices will be the mostactive players on the market.
► Sovereign wealth funds and the public sector will play amarginal role as buyers.
Summary (1/2)
Page 33
Greatest impediments to deal flows
► Differing price expectations between buyers and sellers areseen as the main impediment to successful deals in 2017.
Real estate loan terms
► Real estate loan terms could tighten in 2017.
► The interest rate level is likely to remain constant.
Investment focus by usage type
► The spotlight will be on residential real estate in 2017.
► Only a minority of participants stated that they would put theirinvestment focus on retail properties in 2017.
Preferred investment locations► Zurich, Geneva and Basel are popular regions for investments
in office properties.► Demand for residential properties is highest in Zurich, Lucerne
and Bern.
Exit strategies► A majority of respondents consider that an exit in 2017 is
unattractive in general.
Top trends
► Those surveyed expect demographic change and interesttrends to have a significant impact on the Swiss propertymarket.
► Political instability, urbanization and digitization are alsoregarded as relevant megatrends.
Summary (2/2)
Page 34
Notes ...
Page 35
Your contacts
Claudio Rudolf FRICSPartner
Ernst & Young AGMaagplatz 1P.O. BoxCH-8010 ZurichPhone +41 58 286 39 [email protected]
Daniel Zaugg MRICSPartner
Ernst & Young AGMaagplatz 1P.O. BoxCH-8010 ZurichPhone +41 58 286 46 [email protected]
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