trend spotting in china
TRANSCRIPT
PT Black
Consumer behavior in China
Trend Spotting
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How we spot trends
Desk Research
Focus Groups
Ethnography
Expert Interviews
Quant Surveys
In-depth Interviews
3
How we spot trends
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TheAnatomyof a Trend
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Phenomena
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Phenomena
Parkour
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Phenomena
Martian & Brain-disabled
Language
Phenomena
- Tangible
- Limited in scope
- Niche (often)
- Short-lived(often)
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Root
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Root
Self-expression
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Root
Eco-consciousness
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Root
- Fundamental - Slow changing
- Broad implications
- Generic
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Trend
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Trend
A specific perspective on a changing phenomenon that identifies its reasons for being and provides (some) prediction for where it is going
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Martian Language
Self-Expression
??
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(Re) Mastering Writing- Playful expression- Exclusive / tribal- Written word
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Trend Thinking
I.Find Connections
II.Dig for Reasons
III.Embrace the Future
But…China is of course unique
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I. A different pathway of influence: yesterday
Mainly overseas Outward-looking
Metros and big Cities
Eclectic and out of context
Originator Mediator Adopter
Mainstream
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I. A different pathway of influence: today
Originator Mediator Adopter
Mainstream
Increasingly Chinese
Inward looking Same-time access as
internationalConnected and participating
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II. Dominance of New Media
Leapfrogging over traditional media
Fueled by infrastructure investment
Legal and Distribution
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III. Elastic Definitions of Value
Age Gap
Economic Gap
Legal and Distribution
Uneven change
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IV. Geography: yesterday
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IV. Geography: yesterday
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A Few Worthwhile Trends
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Simplicity, Health, Sophistication
Stripped-down aesthetics
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Digital Rise, Generation Gap, Self Expression
Isolated spheres
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Sophistication, Value gap, Luxury Trickle Down
Amateur Tutorial
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Simplicity, More cars, Mobile tech
Urban Escape
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Self-expression, Tribalism, Generation gap
More Trends!
Web in-jokes,Language Shift, Splash hits
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Final Thoughts
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Tips for trend spotting- Look at the margins – fanatics and laggards
- Lifestyles trickle down; start with the wealthy
- Cast the net wide
- Challenge your thinking
Thank You!