trends and opportunities in the u.s. home and ......2018/10/30 · u.s. new housing mix (based on...

TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE U.S. HOME AND

REMODELING MATERIALS MARKET

Pro Dealer Industry SummitOctober 18, 2018

Home Innovation Research Labs Founded in 1964 as wholly-owned subsidiary of NAHB Independent, for-profit researchers assisting development

and commercialization of new building technologies Engineering research & development Market & field research Laboratory testing

Leader in green home building movement (NGBS)

Key role in building codes and standards development

Partnership with ICC-ES to fast-track issuance of ESRs

Annual Building Product Tracking, Custom Market Research Studies

Home Innovation has been tracking annual materials purchases since 1995 Builder Practices Survey of 1,500 U.S. Builders

Consumer Practices Survey of 100,000 households

Decades of custom market research, sponsored by hundreds of building materials manufacturers

Observational research of materials installation issues

U.S. New Housing Mix (based on annual starts)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Apartment/CondoSFD MoveupSFD StarterSFD LuxuryTownhouse/Duplex

Source: Annual Builder Practices Reports and NAHB Housing Starts

Characteristics of New U.S. Homes, 2017 – Size, Price, and Value

Source: Annual Builder Practices Reports

Average Living Area

Average Price

Total Sq.Ft. Added

(millions)Total Sales (billions)

TOWNHOUSE/DUPLEX 1,702 sf $332,742 172 $32

APARTMENTS/CONDOS 1,136 sf $171,149 414 $62

SFD STARTER 1,674 sf $187,728 384 $42

SFD MOVEUP 2,435 sf $356,829 862 $127

SFD LUXURY 3,647 sf $777,181 583 $126

Average Annual Growth Forecast of Housing Starts, 2017 - 2022

SFD Starts MF StartsNEW ENGLAND 2% -1%

MID-ATLANTIC 2% 1%

EAST NORTH CENTRAL 3% 1%

WEST NORTH CENTRAL 2% -1%

SOUTH ATLANTIC 5% 2%

EAST SOUTH CENTRAL 3% 0%

WEST SOUTH CENTRAL 4% 0%

MOUNTAIN 5% 0%

PACIFIC 5% 0%Source: NAHB Housing Starts + Forecast (May 2018)

Shares of New Home Builders Purchasing at Lumber Yards

Source: NAHB HMI Survey, Special Questions Nov. 2015

Remodeling General Contractor responsesin similar NAHB survey mirror this graph.

Shares of Purchase Decisions Made by Home Builder

Source: NAHB Remodeler Survey, 4th Quarter 2015

Single Family Detached (SFD)Above-Grade Wall Construction, 2017

0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%1.3%1.4%2.1%

5.2%9.4%

79.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Autoclaved aerated concrete Precast concrete

Logs Other concrete or masonry Structural insulated panels

Insulated concrete forms Modular - light frame

Post & beam Poured concrete

Concrete block Panelized - light frame

Site built - light frame


Trends in SFD Above-GradeWall Construction

91% 89% 87% 89% 86%90% 91% 89% 89% 90%

5% 6%10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 7%

2% 3%1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Site built Panelized Modular


2018 Builder Survey on Anticipated Adoption of Labor-Saving Alternatives

Haven't used, Don't plan to

Plan to use it less often

Plan to use it about the same

Plan to use it more often

Roof trusses 12% 6% 65% 17%

Pre-cut framing package 66% 6% 20% 8%

Factory-built open wall panels 67% 8% 20% 5%

Factory-built closed wall panels 73% 7% 18% 3%

Panelized, pre-assembled floors 75% 7% 14% 4%

Modular 77% 6% 13% 4%Turn-key framing 51% 10% 33% 6%Precast floor, wall, or roof panels 73% 6% 18% 4%

Question: CONSIDERING ONLY THE NEW HOMES YOUR COMPANY BUILDS, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU PLAN TO USE LESS OFTEN, ABOUT THE SAME, OR MORE OFTEN IN THE COMING YEAR COMPARED TO LAST YEAR?

Source: Home Innovation Research Labs Survey

2018 Survey of Builders Sheds Light on Labor Saving Alternatives

Haven't used, Don't plan to

Plan to use it less often

Plan to use it about the same

Plan to use it more often

Roof trusses 7% 7% 61% 25%

Pre-cut framing package 53% 7% 26% 14%

Factory-built open wall panels 53% 16% 26% 5%

Factory-built closed wall panels 53% 11% 35% 2%

Panelized, pre-assembled floors 63% 9% 21% 7%

Modular 61% 7% 25% 7%Turn-key framing 40% 14% 37% 9%Precast floor, wall, or roof panels 60% 9% 26% 5%

Question: CONSIDERING ONLY THE NEW HOMES YOUR COMPANY BUILDS, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU PLAN TO USE LESS OFTEN, ABOUT THE SAME, OR MORE OFTEN IN THE COMING YEAR COMPARED TO LAST YEAR?

Large Builders Only—25 or more Starts/Year

Source: Home Innovation Research Labs Survey

Exterior Wall Framing inSFD Homes: 2 x 6 vs. 2 x 4 Studs


70%63%

71%65%

61%55%

61%62%

56%60%

56%

29%35%

29%33%

38%45%

39%37%

44%40%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2 x 42 x 6

Exterior Wall Framing InMultifamily Homes: 2 x 6 vs. 2 x 4 Studs

59% 60%

51%

49%

54% 51%

45%

41% 40%

49%

50%

46% 48%

54%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2 x 42 x 6


Exterior Wall Sheathing Materialsfor New SFD Homes

Includes Primary & Secondary Layers

13% 13% 13% 13% 15%

16% 16%

69% 69% 71% 72%66%

69% 67%

14% 15%13% 13%

17%

12% 14%

4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PlywoodOSBFoamOther

Among foam, Polyiso leads secondary sheathing market, and XPS leads primary sheathing market


Huber ZIP System/GP ForceField total about 8%

Shares of Insulating Foam Wall Sheathing in New SFD Homes


5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5%

5%6%

6% 7%

9%7% 8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Foam as Primary Layer Foam as Secondary Layer

Exterior Foam Wall Sheathing by Thickness, New SFD Homes

63%52%

35%44% 45%

37% 35%

7%

12%

14%

9%16%

7% 8%

24%26%

44%29%

31%

45%42%

3%9% 2%

10%

4%6% 13%

2% 2% 5% 8% 4% 5% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2 inches1 1/2 inches1 inch3/41/2


Trend in Wall Height of New SFD Homes


39%35%

31%32%

26%

32%

42%44%

47%45%

51%49%

20% 21% 22% 22% 23%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8' or Less8.5' or 9'10' or More

Ceiling Heights inNew SFD Homes, 2017

26%

52%

23%

48%

42%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

8' or Less

8.5' or 9'

10' or More

Upper Floors First Floor


Wood Trusses Trending Upward (Again) in New SFD Homes


35%39%

41%

47%49%

42%

35%

40%

35% 35% 35% 35%33% 33%

63%61%

56%

50%

46%

55%

63%

55%

61% 62% 63% 63% 64%66%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Rafters Trusses

Trend in Roof Shapesin New SFD Homes (based on sq.ft. roof footprint)

55% 53% 52% 51% 51%54% 55% 55% 54% 53% 52% 51% 50%

52%

43%47% 46% 46% 45%

42% 42% 42% 44% 43% 44% 44% 45% 43%

2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Gable Hip Gambrel Flat


Trend in Roof Shapes in New Multifamily Homes (based on sq.ft. roof footprint)

62%58% 60% 58%

64% 62% 61%58% 58%

56%58% 57% 57%

50%

32%36% 35%

38%

31% 31%34% 36% 36% 35%

32%29% 28%

32%

4% 5% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%7% 7%

11% 11%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gable Hip Gambrel Flat


Roof Sheathing onNew SFD Homes

21%25% 24% 25% 26% 26%

30% 30%

2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4%

75%71% 73% 71% 71% 71%

66% 65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

PlywoodZIP SystemCommodity OSB


Shares of Structural Floors in New SFD Homes (based on sq.ft. of floor space)


38% 38%40% 39% 38% 39%

37%36% 36% 37% 37% 36%

35%32%

25% 24%22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20%

22%24%

26% 27% 27%28%

30%29%

31% 32% 31% 31% 30%32% 32% 31%

10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12%11% 10%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Concrete Lumber joists Wood I-joists Open-web joists

Floor Joist Depthin New SFD Homes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

8 inches 10 inches 12 inches 14 inches+


Premium & Commodity OSB Subflooring in New SFD Homes, 2017


Commodity Panels, 29%

AdvanTech (Huber), 34%

EdgeGold (Weyerhaeuser),

24%Pinnacle (Norbord),

3%

Durastrand PointSix (Norbord), 1%

TopNotch 350 or 450 (LP), 8%

Others, 5%

Insulation Usage in New SFD Homes (based on sq.ft. area insulated of walls, floors and roof)


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Fiberglass batt Fiberglass blown Cellulose blown Spray foam Foam board All Others

Spray Foam Insulation Market Shareby Assembly in New SFD Homes, 2017


2%

6%

8%

9%

11%

12%

12%

14%

15%

24%

26%

31%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Floor Above BasementFloor Above Crawl Space Foundation

Garage CeilingRoof Above Flat Ceiling

All InsulationExterior Wall Cavity Insulation

Basement Wall InsulationGarage Wall Cavity

Roof Above Cathedral CeilingFloor Sound InsulationWall Sound Insulation

Crawl Space Wall

Shares of Housewrap, in New SFD Homes, 2017


0.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%1%1%1%2%3%3%3%4%

9%10%10%

53%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Kimberly-Clark Tremco Barrier Solutions

Benjamin Obdyke Perma R Products

Grip-Rite James Hardie

REX Wrap Grace

Owens Corning Green Guard

Barricade Building Products DOW

CertainTeed Others TYPAR

DuPont Tyvek

Homes with Housewrap: 78%…with Self-Adhered Wrap: 16%…with Liquid-Applied: 4%

Is the Remodeling Market Opportunity Primarily for Pros or DIYers?DIY Share of Remodeling Materials Purchases

Source: Annual Consumer Practices Reports

18%32%

38%39%

45%47%

50%53%

58%58%

69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

RoofingStructural Walls, Floors & Roofs

CabinetsSiding

Exterior DoorsExterior Decking

Fences/Landscape WallsFaucets

Deck & Porch RailsAppliances

Interior Paint

Residential Roofing: New Homes and Home Replacements/Additions, 2017

(millions of sf)

328

338

1,832

150

252

333

1,048

577

1,615

5,963

4,819

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Composite

Slate

Single Ply

Cedar shingles & shakes

Clay or Concrete Tile

Metal

Asphalt--3-tab

Asphalt--architectural

New Homes

Remodeling

Residential Roofing is about an 18 billion sq.ft. per-year market

Source: Annual Builder & Consumer Practices Reports

Roofing Materials Installed in New SFD Homes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Asphalt--Three TabAsphalt--ArchitecturalWood Shakes/ShinglesConcrete and Clay TileMetalPlastic CompositeOther


Roofing Material Installedin Home Replacements

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Asphalt--Three TabAsphalt--ArchitecturalWood Shakes/ShinglesConcrete and Clay TileMetalPlastic CompositeOther


Siding in New SFD Homes


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Vinyl & PolymerFiber CementEngineereed WoodStuccoBrickStoneNatural Lumber

Siding in Home Remodeling

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Engineered WoodNatural WoodBrick & BlockStoneStuccoVinyl & PolymerFiber CementMetal and Other


New Home and RemodelingWindow Installations, 2017 (1000’s)

494

1,214

1,710

1,093

4,951

1,313

2,740

2,117

2,388

2,170

5,254

6,962

3,640

8,097

2,191

3,364

2,700

4,081

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

New EnglandMid-Atlantic

E N CentralW N Central

S AtlanticE S Central

W S CentralMountain

Pacific

New Home Windows Home Remodeling Windows

An estimated 58 million windows were installed in residential properties in 2017

Source: Annual Builder & Consumer Practices ReportsSource: Annual Builder & Consumer Practices Reports

Trends in New SFD HomeWindow Frame Materials

52% 50% 50% 48%

60% 60%64% 65%

67% 66%

60%

65%68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Wood (no cladding) Wood, aluminum clad Wood, vinyl clad Aluminum Vinyl Composite or fiberglass

Source: Annual Builder Practices ReportsSource: Annual Builder Practices Reports

Window Purchases byNew Home Price-Point

20%

13%

39%

13%

4%7%

65%

79%

46%

2% 3%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Starter Moveup Luxury

WoodAluminumVinylComposite & Other


New Home Window Purchasesby Size of Home Builder

37%

23%

13%9% 7%

4%

47%

65%

81%

7% 5%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Builds 1 - 10Homes/Year

Builds 11 - 50Homes/Year

Builds 51+Homes/Year

WoodAluminumVinylComposite & Other


Trends in Home RemodelingWindow Frame Materials

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wood

Aluminum

Vinyl

Composite &Other

Source: Annual Consumer Practices ReportsSource: Annual Builder Practices Reports

Exterior Door Purchases inNew Homes, 2017 (thousands)

253

293

673

149

100

570

218

786

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Other

Wood -- raised panel

Wood -- flush

Steel -- raised panel

Steel -- flush

Fiberglass

Front Entry Other Entry

An estimated 8 million entry doors were installed in residential properties in 2017 (new homes + remodel) and 3 million in new homes.


Exterior Entry Door Purchase Trends, New Homes

13% 12% 13%16%

11%8%

13%12%

15% 15%17%

14%13%

4% 3% 4%7%

3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%6%

4% 5%

44%42%

40%38%

36%40%

35% 35% 35%32%

30%32%

27%

8%7% 6%

5% 6% 6% 5%7%

4%

7%5% 6%

8%

30%

36% 36%33%

42% 41% 42% 41% 40% 40% 41% 42%

46%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Wood -- raised panel Wood -- flush Steel -- raised panel Steel -- flush Fiberglass


Front Entry Doors, New U.S. Homes 2017

Wood --raised

panel, 19%

Wood --flush, 4%Steel -- raised panel, 22%

Steel --flush, 2%

Fiberglass, 50%

Other, 2%


Other Entry Doors, New U.S. Homes 2017

Wood --raised panel,

8%

Wood --flush, 5%

Steel --raised panel,

31%Steel --

flush, 12%

Fiberglass, 42%

Other, 1%


Front Entry Doors by Builder Size, New SFD Homes, 2017

32%

23% 25%22% 23%

10%

44%

53%

65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

BUILDERS OF 1-10HOMES A YEAR

BUILDERS OF 11-50HOMES A YEAR

BUILDERS OF 51+HOMES A YEAR

WoodSteelFiberglass


Front Entry Doors by Price-Point of New SFD Homes, 2017

17%

25%

40%

25%

16% 14%

58% 58%

43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Starter Move-up Luxury

WoodSteelFiberglass


Front Entry Doors,Home Repair & Remodeling, 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

WoodSteelFiberglass

Source: Annual Consumer Practices ReportsSource: Annual Consumer Practices Reports

Other Entry Doors,Home Repair & Remodeling, 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

WoodSteelFiberglass

Source: Annual Consumer Practices ReportsSource: Annual Consumer Practices Reports

Decking Volumes by Material Typein New Homes and Remodeling, 2017

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Treated lumber

Cedar

Redwood

Other untreated lumber

Plastic composite

PVC & other plastics

New Homes Remodeling

(Millions of Sq.Ft.)

About 1.2 billion square feet of decking was installed on residences in 2017, ~85%for remodeling

Source: Annual Builder & Consumer Practices Reports

Shares of Raised Porch and Decking Material in New SFD Homes

40%

17%

35%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Treated WoodUntreated WoodCompositePVC


Shares of Raised Porch and Decking Material in Residential Remodeling

50%

23%

17%

2%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Treated lumberUntreated LumberCompositePVC & Other Plastic


THANK YOU

Home Innovation Research Labs400 Prince George’s Blvd |Upper Marlboro, MD 20774

P: 301.430.6194 | F: 301.430.6180HomeInnovation.com

Ed [email protected]

trends and opportunities in the u.s. home and ......2018/10/30 · u.s. new housing mix (based on...

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