Trends and Prospects:Lifelong Learning in Digital Era

The 2nd International Conference on Lifelong Learning for All, Sept 11-12 2014

Chulalongkorn UniversityBangkok, Thailand

Ichiro Miyazawa, Program Specialist

UNESCO Bangkok

1. Key Point 2. Why Lifelong Learning? 3. What are shifts in work and

life? 4. How could Lifelong learning

support?

Contents

1.Key Point 2. Why Lifelong Learning? 3. What are shifts in work and

life? 4. How could Lifelong learning

support?

Contents

Lifelong Learning 4

LIFE

WORK

1. Key Point

2.Why Lifelong Learning? (Background and Reality)

3. What are shifts in work and life?

4. How could Lifelong learning support?

Contents

2.1 Economic/social progress and implications

2.2 Demographic dynamics and challenges

2.3 Conflicts and Natural disasters

2.4 Technological Shifts

(Constant 2005 USD)

North America

Increased Share in World GDP

Source: World Bank Databank (http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators)

6

Asian Resilience in Recent Economic Crises

Source: International Monetary Fund (2014), IMF Working Paper WP/14/38: Why Was Asia Resilient? Lessons from the Past and for the Future. (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp1438.pdf)

Real GDP, 2012H1 (Percentage points, relative to pre-crisis peak)

8

The middle class in the Asia-Pacific is projected to continue to grow

Source: Brookings Institution (2012)

Rising Middle Class Population11

10

Source: OECD

Rising Middle Class Consumption of China and India

Source: Brookings Institution (2012)

Countries in Asia Pacific have seen widening income disparities.

Income inequality is a problem that many developed countries face as well.

Large shifts in the GINI coefficient14

12

Economic growth and structural changes

Source: United Nations (2011), Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific. (http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2011/ESCAP-SYB2011.pdf)

9

Source: ILO (2011), Global Employment Trends. (http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/@publ/documents/publication/wcms_150440.pdf)

  Agriculture Industry Services  Level Change Level Change Level ChangeWORLD 35.0 -5.2 21.8 1.2 43.2 4.0

Developed Economies & EU 3.7 -1.9 23.4 -4.1 72.8 6.0Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and Commonwealth of Independent

States 20.1 -6.9 24.6 0.2 55.2 6.7

East Asia 36.9 -11.0 27.8 4.0 35.3 7.0

Southeast Asia & the Pacific 44.3 -5.1 17.7 1.8 38.0 3.3

South Asia 53.5 -6.0 18.9 3.4 27.6 2.6

Latin America & Caribbean 16.3 -5.2 22.2 0.7 61.6 4.5

Middle East 19.1 -3.0 26.1 0.2 54.8 2.8

North Africa 27.8 -1.5 22.5 2.0 49.7 -0.5Sub-Saharan Africa 59.0 -3.4 10.6 1.8 30.4 1.6

Share of Employment by Sector (% (2009), % change past decade (1999-2009))

Structural shifts in the economy across Asia10

Jobless Recovery

2-2. Demographic dynamics, challenges and migration

16

Changes of Life Expectancy and Fertility

Source: World Bank Database 2012

Age

Source : UNESCAP (2013), Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2013. (http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2013/ESCAP-syb2013.pdf)

Population Pyramid Across Time: Aging Asia-Pacific24

Dependency Ratio (%)

Source: World Development Indicators.

(%under 15) +

( %over 65 )

% between 15

and 65

X

100=

Migration: Facts

214 million

Estimated number of international migrants worldwide The total number of international migrants has increased over the last 10 years from an estimated 150 million in 2000 to 214 million persons today.

3.1%Percentage of the world's population who are migrants In other words, one of out of every 33 persons in the world today is a migrant (whereas in 2000 one out of every 35 persons was a migrant).

5thMigrants would constitute the fifth most populous country in the world

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), IOM World Migration Report 2010

Mobility and migration of international migrants

Source: IOM (2012), Global estimates and trends: Facts and figures. (http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/about-migration/facts-and-figures/lang/en) UNDP (2009), Human Development Report 2009 – Overcoming barriers: Human Mobility and development.

Origin and destination of international migrants

25

2.3 Conflicts and Natural Disasters

Armed conflicts

Armed Conflicts in the Asia and Pacific Region (2014)

Source: conflicstmap.org

Source: Peace and Conflict 2012

Source: UNESCAP (2013), Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2013. (http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2013/ESCAP-syb2013.pdf)

Number of the occurrence of natural disasters over time

Natural disasters around the globe: how is Asia-Pacific doing?33

2.4 Technological Shifts

Source: Measuring the Information Society, ITU, 2012

2.3 Billion Internet

users

6 Billion mobile phone

subscribers

Connecting the world through ICT

By 2020, the primary device for Internet is the Mobile Device

Source: Future of the Internet report, 2008

By 2025, 5 Billion people will be connected

Source: Monitor Group's Global Business Network and Cisco, 2012

Digital Divide: Households with Internet Usage

Source : ITU (2013), The world in 2013: ICT facts and figures.

*CIS refers to Commonwealth of Independent States (e.g. Russia and Armenia)

29

Source: Singularity is Near http://www.singularity.com/charts/page70.html

33

35

http://youtu.be/i6jx42dMyxQ

YES, Android took/will take our Jobs

http://youtu.be/cXQrbxD9_Ng

Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?

1. Key Point 2. Why Lifelong Learning?

3.What are shifts in work and life?

4. How could Lifelong learning support?

Contents

41

42

“The element is the point at which natural talent meets personal passion. It is also an essential strategy for transforming education, business, and communities to meet the challenges of living and succeeding in the twenty-first century”

Ken Robinson

Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

44

45Consumption Society New Society

Motivation Physiological/Esteem Self actualization and Contribution to people/society

Value Consumption/ Competition

Creation/Collaboration

Main Player Big Company/Organization

Individual/Small team/Small Organization

Individual Consumers and Investors Creator/Maker/Citizen

Job opportunity Less Many

Production Model

Mass Production Flexible and Adaptable Production

Start up Money Community/Social Capital

Work and Life Community and Global Glocal Source: Hiroyuki Naganuma, Work Design 2013

1. Key Point 2. Why Lifelong Learning? 3. What are shifts in work and

life?

4.How could Lifelong learning support?

Contents

4.1 Trends in Lifelong Learning in Formal Education System

Higher Education

Source: UNESCO (2014), EFA Global Monitoring Report 2013/4. (http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0022/002256/225660e.pdf) UIS (http://data.uis.unesco.org/index.aspx?queryid=142&lang=en)

South and West Asia

Central AsiaEast Asia and the

PacificWorld

Indicator 1999 2010 1999 2010 1999 2010 1999 2010Gross enrolment ratio (%)

- 17 19 24 13 29 18 29

Gender parity index - 0.76 0.92 1.09 0.76 1.05 0.99 1.08G.J. Kim Asian Education in a Changing World: Emerging Trends and Policy Responses 12 June 2014

46

Gross enrolment ratios for Bachelor’s programmes by country or territory, 1980-2011

Source: UNESCO UIS (2014), Higher Education in Aisa

• Most middle and low income countries in the region have made much progress in widening access to Bachelor’s degree programmes

• In China, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Nepal and Sri Lanka, the gross enrollment ratios for Bachelor’s programmes have increased over 10 times over the past four decades

Access to higher education has expanded

Lao P

DR

Bh

uta

n

Pakis

tan

Ban

gla

desh

Bru

nei

Daru

ssala

m

Ch

ina

Myan

mar

Cam

bod

ia

Sri

Lan

ka

Ind

ia

Nep

al

Tim

or-

Leste

Ind

on

esia

Mala

ysia

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ch

ina,

Hon

g

Kon

g

Iran

, Is

lam

ic

Rep

.

Th

ail

an

d

Ch

ina,

Macao

Jap

an

Kore

a,

Rep

.

49

Higher Education Graduates by Field

Source: UIS (2012), Global Education Digest 2012 – Opportunities lost: The impact of grade repetition and early school leaving.

  Graduates by field as a percentage of total graduates (2010)

Australia Brunei CambodiaMacau, China

JapanLao PDR

Malaysia

New Zealan

d

Republic of

Korea

Viet Nam

Agriculture 1 - 2 - 3 6 1 1 1 8Engineering, manufacturing & construction

8 10 3 2 17 14 24 6 24 17

Humanities and arts 10 9 14 7 15 12 4 14 18 4Social science, business and law

44 12 66 64 27 51 31 32 21 33

Health and welfare 15 11 3 6 13 4 8 13 14 4Science 10 12 9 3 3 7 14 13 8 -Services 3 - - 13 9 5 3 4 6 3Education 9 42 2 5 7 1 17 12 8 28Not known or unspecified

- 4 - - 7 - 1 5 - 4

G.J. Kim Asian Education in a Changing World: Emerging Trends and Policy Responses 12 June 2014

48

• Across the region, many governments allowed and encouraged the expansion of private higher education in an effort to shift students away from the heavily-subsidized public sector.

• Some countries, such as Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines and the Republic of Korea, have a strong tradition of private higher education where the majority of students attend private institutions.

Source: UNESCO UIS (2014), Higher Education in Asia

Enrolment in private higher education institutions as a percentage of total higher education enrolment by country or territory, 2011 or most recent year available

Expansion of Private Higher Education

Korea, Rep.

Japan

Singapore

China, Macao

Philippines

Nepal

Indonesia

Cambodia

Bangladesh

Iran, Islamic Rep.

Timor-Leste

Malaysia

Pakistan

Lao PDR

Thailand

China, Hong Kong

Viet Nam

Brunei Darussalam

Afghanistan

51

School Expectancy Per Country

Source: UIS (2012), UNESCO Institute for Statistics database.

50

Basic Education

Higher Secondar

y

TVET/ Polytec

h

Bachelor

Master/

Doctor

Lifelong learning course

Working Experien

ces

Working experience and Non/In formal

Education

National Qualifications Frameworks and Lifelong Learning

MOOC?

Advantages

• Free • Anytime and

anywhere • Access to the top

quality lesson • Learn at own pace • Collaboration among

peers in/over the country/ies

Disadvantages

• No real world socialization • Risk of academic

dishonesty • Not all courses

accredited• Some course in poor

quality • No guidance for

students • Drop out

http://www.onlineuniversities.com/blog/2012/10/all-you-can-eat-education-30-month/http://www.onlinecolleges.net/2012/07/11/the-world-of-massive-open-online-courses/

4.2 Connected Lifelong Learning

1) Collaborative Connected Learning

2) Issue-based Learning/Doing 3) AI and Big Data

57

Social Learning/Connected Learning

59

60

61

France No teacher

Issue based learning

63

School without a teacher

How could we make information more accessible to all who wish to learn and get connected?

How can we use AI and Big Data to find our passion, curiosity, life-purpose, and competency?

Ichiro Miyazawa Literacy and Lifelong Learning

Program SpecialistUNESCO Bangkok

i.miyazawa@unesco.org