trends for the future salmon farming -how can the industry...
TRANSCRIPT
14.08.2013
Trends for the future salmon farming
-how can the industry grow? Precentation
by/ Lars Liabø
AquaGen seminar 2013
August, 14th 2013
Rica Nidelven Hotel, Trondheim
14.08.2013
Atlantic Salmon, why success?
• High market image, red flesh color, potent fish
• High fillet yield, low cost per kg editable meat
• Easy to handle in low cost production facilities
• Stable productivity, feed conversion rate, loss rate, growth rate
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Atlantic salmon 2012, the fastest growth ever! 1000 tonnes wfe
2011 2012E Change Change %
tonnes
Norway 1 006 1 183 177 18 %
Chile 221 364 143 65 %
UK 156 156 - 0 %
Canada 110 124 14 13 %
Faroe Islands 56 70 14 25 %
Australia 36 36 - 0 %
USA 18 20 2 11 %
Ireland 15 16 1 7 %
Others 16 17 1 6 %
Totalt 1 634 1 986 352 22 %
country
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Increased consumption, where?
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Atlantic salmon 2013: No volume growth,
soaring prices
• Estimated harvest quantity w.w. 2013 2 020 000 tonnes wfe
• Harvest quantity ww 2012 1 971 000 “ “
• Increase just 2,6%
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5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
8,00
8,50
9,00
9,50
10,00
10,50
Jan
May
Sep
Jan
May
Sep
jan
.02
May
Sep
jan
.03
May
Sep
jan
.04
May
Sep
jan
.05
May
Sep
jan
.06
May
Sep
jan
.07
May
Sep
jan
.08
Mai
Sep
jan
.09
Mai
Sep
jan
.10
Mai
Sep
jan
.11
Mai
Sep
jan
.12
Mai
Sep
jan
.13
Mai
EU
R/k
g
Retail Prices; FranceFresh Atlantic salmon
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EU; consumption per capita
(total population 503 mill.)
Change in consumer pattern?
2011 E 2012E Chg
• Poultry 24,1 kg 23,9 kg - 0,2kg -1%
• Pork 43,3 kg 42.9 kg - 0,4 kg -1%
• Atl.sal. 1,55 kg 1,82 kg + 0,27 +17%
+ 0,1 kg = 50.000 tonnes
+ 0,5 kg = 250.000 ”
Source: ZMP/ Kontali Analyse AS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Poultry Pork Atlantic salmon
KG
per
cap
ita
2008 2009
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Salmon Farming, a very profitable
industry (At least in Norway)
2003 to 2012:
Average pre tax margins for Salmon
Farming Companies in Norway:
18 %
The markets are growing, but who can serve future demand?
• Norway?
• Chile?
• UK?
• Canada?
• Others?
• Russia?
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Growth potensial Chile
• Area available 23 100 km2
• Max tonnes per km2 (?) 25 tonnes
• Max biomass ca 580 000 tonnes
(Biomass end July 2013 all species: 430 000 tonnes)
• Max production(biomass*1,8)ca 1 000 000 tonnes/year
Estimated harvest quantity all species 2013 ca 780 000 tonnes
17.2 2011
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Growth potensial Norway
• Available seasites for salmon farming 76 410 km2
• Max biomass today MTB 775 000 tonnes
• Tonnes per km2 10
• Potential tonnes per km2 25(?)
• Max biomass 1 900 000 tonnes
• Maks produksjon (Biomasse*1,5) 2 900 000 tonn
Harvest quantity 2012 salmon and trout 1 256 000 tonnes
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MTB (MAB), Norway
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
2009 2010 2011 2012
Ton
ne
s W
FE,
(ro
un
d, b
led
we
igh
t)
Total Biomass - Salmon & Trout MAB - Capacity
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Salmon production Norway
2009 - 2013E
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
S1+S2 131 000 139 000 6 % 153 500 10 % 154 500 1 % 159 000 3 %
S0 106 000 117 000 10 % 127 000 9 % 127 500 0 % 131 000 3 %
Total Release 237 000 256 000 8 % 280 500 10 % 282 000 1 % 290 000 3 %
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
Feed Consumption 1 202 100 1 234 800 3 % 1 370 400 11 % 1 519 700 11 % 1 475 900 -3 %
Losses (Tonnes wfe) 72 100 67 000 -7 % 70 600 5 % 78 600 11 % 76 900 -2 %
BFCR - per kilo live weight 1,14 1,15 1 % 1,15 0 % 1,13 -2 % 1,14 1 %
EFCR - per kilo wfe 1,31 1,32 1 % 1,31 -1 % 1,29 -2 % 1,30 1 %
Avg. Harvest Weight 4,87 5,14 6 % 5,17 1 % 5,20 1 % 5,21 0 %
Biomass Ultimo 598 400 607 000 1 % 668 900 10 % 689 400 3 % 705 000 2 %
How to get growth in Norway?
• According to the government of today no increase in MAB will take place before the industry can show
- Reduction in number of escapes
- Reduction in number of sea lices
Actions to be taken within the system of today
• Increased smolt weight
• Faster growth independent of seawater temperatures
• Reduced loss rate
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Increased Productivity?
• Loss rate
• Growth rate
• Feed conversion rate
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Yield per smolt
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
2002G 2003G 2004G 2005G 2006G 2007G 2008G 2009G
kg/w
fe
Generasjon
UK Chile
Færøyene Norge
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10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
40 %
87G 88G 89G 90G 91G 92G 93G 94G 95G 96G 97G 98G 99G 00G 01G 02G 03G 04G 05G 06G 07G 08G 09G 10G
Atlantic Salmon Norway – Loss rate %
G E N E R A S J O N
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Yield per egg - Norway
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
kg
wfe
per
rog
nko
rn
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0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
87G 88G 89G 90G 91G 92G 93G 94G 95G 96G 97G 98G 99G 00G 01G 02G 03G 04G 05G 06G 07G 08G 09G 10G
kg
wfe
Atlantic salmon Norway;
Yield per smolt released (kg wfe)
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Feed conversion rate Atlantic Salmon Norway
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
1,60
1,70
92G 93G 94G 95G 96G 97G 98G 99G 00G 01G 02G 03G 04G 05G 06G 07G 08G 09G 10G
Biologisk fórfaktor levende vekt Økonomisk fórfaktor sløyd vekt
Changes in the Norwegian production structure?
• Increased cooperation fresh water and ocean farming necessary
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The Norwegian salmon farming
regulation system
1973 A preliminary law for fishfarming passed
the Norwegian Parliament:
- Licenses for start up only granted by the
Government, both for freshwater (smolt) and ocean
production (ongrowing).
- Limitation on ownership
- A split between smolt and ongrowing
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1985: Smoltproduction free!
• 1985 to 1990 an enormous growth in number of smolt producers.
• 1990: 558 production sites registered!
• 1997: 283 “ “ “
• 2011 : 247 “ “ “
• 2012: 235 in operation (According to the Directorate of Fisheries)
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Status Norway salmon fresh
water production (smolt) • Most plants Are part of (integrated) a
company with licenses for ocean farming or
the smolt plant has a long term contract with
a farming company
• To utilize the MAB system, all smolt plants try
to deliver a bigger smolt.
• Increased tank capacity, recirculation
systems
• Increased production per plant
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Wrong focus?
• Is yield per egg measured as number of
smolt a correct productivity factor?
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0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
Smolt per egg
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Final remarks
• High salmon prices can cause
establishing of non sustainable
production
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Advanced breeding systems are an important part of
the salmon industry developement
• Can breeding make the salmon immune against sealice
and a sterile fish will be no treat against the wild salmon
And in addition give a more healthy and fast growing fish,
Yes,
then the future will be much brighter for the salmon
industry!
Thank you!