trends in coffee consumption presentation to asoexport coffee summit cartagena, colombia on 6 th...
TRANSCRIPT
Trends in coffee consumption
Presentation to Asoexport Coffee Summit Cartagena, Colombia on 6th Nov, 2015
Gerard Stapleton, LMC International, Oxford, UK www.lmc.co.uk
Outline
• Emerging vs. mature markets
• Soluble consumption
• Outlook
Emerging vs. mature markets
In recent years, consumption growth has been dominated by emerging markets
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Consu
mption index
(19
90=10
0)
Mature Emerging
Growth has been strong in both coffee producing countries and non-coffee producing countries
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Consu
mption index
(19
90=10
0)
Emerging (Non-producers) Producers
This has reduced the importance of mature markets, although they are still the largest segment of consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1985 1995 2005 2015
Consu
mption (m
n b
ags)
Mature Producers Other Emerging
Over 2.5 mn bags are being added to consumption each year (80% of this growth is in the emerging markets)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Mature Producers Other Emerging
Annual
incr
ease
in c
onsu
mption (m
n b
ags)
1995-2005 2005-2015
Rising incomes are driving this growth (along with a growing middle class and urbanisation)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Consu
mption p
er cap
ita
Income per Capita ($)
Germany
Australia
Brazil
UK
France
Japan
Greece
Poland
S Korea
Russia
Germany
Australia
Brazil
UK
France
Japan
Greece
Poland
S Korea
Russia
but per capita consumption levels remain relatively low
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14F
inla
nd
Sw
eden
No
rway
Net
her
lan
ds
Leb
ano
nD
enm
ark
Slo
ven
iaA
ust
ria
Cro
atia
Ger
man
yB
razi
lC
ypru
sS
wit
zerl
and
Isra
elB
elg
ium
Fra
nce
Ital
yS
erb
iaG
reec
eH
un
gar
yC
anad
aC
zech
Po
rtu
gal
US
AS
lova
kia
Bu
lgar
iaP
ola
nd
Alg
eria
UA
ES
pai
nJa
pan N
ZR
om
ania
Au
stra
liaJo
rdan U
KK
ore
aM
alay
sia
Irel
and
Tai
wan
Co
lom
bia
Sin
gap
ore
Sau
di A
rab
iaR
uss
iaM
exic
oU
krai
ne
Eth
iop
iaT
hai
lan
dM
oro
cco
Arg
enti
na
Ph
ilip
pin
esV
ietn
amIn
do
nes
iaT
urk
eyC
hile
S A
fric
aF
ijiE
gyp
tIn
dia
Iraq
Ch
ina
kg p
er y
ear
Consumption growth tends to follow an “S” curve: slow start, rapid acceleration, stagnation
Japan
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102014
Per cap
ital consu
mptio
n (kg p
er capita)
Import
s ('0
00 to
nnes
)
Imports Consumption per capita
Tastes are also important, high soluble consumption is linked to high per capita tea consumption.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Per capita tea consumption (kg/annum)
Solu
ble
(%)
RussiaAustralia China
Chile
UK
Canada
Japan
India
FranceGermany
USBrazil
Finland
Per capita consumption is higher in the coffee producing countries than other emerging markets. Producers have a “taste” for coffee.
Asia (c)
Africa (p)
Asia (p)Africa (c)
CE Europe
Americas (p)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Per capita income ($)
Per
cap
ita
consu
mption (k
g)
Growth in emerging market demand has seen a large increase in robusta demand, both as a proportion of total consumption…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Mature Producers Other Emerging
Robust
a pro
portio
n (%
)
1995 2005 2015
…and in absolute volumes. This is due to growing conillon use in Brazil (until recently…) and higher soluble consumption.
0
10
20
30
1985 1995 2005 2015
Consu
mption (m
n b
ags)
Mature Producers Other Emerging
There is greater flexibility in terms of blend formation in the mature markets. Least flexibility in the coffee producing countries.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Jul
Import
s %
Washed Naturals Robusta
EU-28
In Japan, blends have been relatively stable over the last three years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Sep
Imports
%
Washed Naturals Robusta
In the US, specialty coffee now accounts for over one third of total consumption, compared to less than 25% in 2010 (less than 10% in the late 1990’s)
20%
25%
30%
35%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
spec
ialty
pro
portio
n o
f co
nsu
mption (%
)
The growth in US specialty consumption has sustained washed arabica imports…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug
Import
s %
Washed Naturals Robusta
… excluding specialty consumption, US mainstream blends are more flexible in their formation.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Aug
Import
s %
Washed Naturals Robusta
Over 25% of US households now own single-serve coffee brewers. According to the NCA most owners consume more cups per day than non-owners.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
hold
s ow
nin
g s
ingle
-ser
ve b
rew
er
German consumption saturated, but espresso and single-serve capsules remain growth segments.
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Segm
ent ('000 to
nnes, g
be)
Tota
l mar
ket ('0
00 tonnes
, gbe)
Soluble Espresso Pods Capsules Total market
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Exp
ort
s ('
000
ton
es)
Change in Exports R&G Exports
Italian R&G exports support strong growth in espresso-based consumption
Russian imports reflect consumption growth plus increased stocks…
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
million b
ags
Green R&G Soluble
… while Russian monthly total coffee imports fluctuating in 2015, no clear sign of slowdown yet.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Import
Gro
wth
(sam
e m
onth
12
month
s ag
o)
Starbucks comparable stores sales growth accelerating in Americas region.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chan
ge in
Sal
es o
n sam
e quar
ter 1
2 m
nth
s ea
rlie
r
In Japan, recent consumption growth seen in R&G and soluble segments.
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Cup
s per d
ay
Cup
s per
day
(%)
Soluble % Canned/liquid % R&G % Soluble cups/day
In Brazil, consumption growth has slowed in line with economic growth.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
GDP G
rowth (%
)
Con
sum
ption
(mn
bag
s)
GDP Growth Consumption
Soluble markets
Global soluble consumption growth over 3% per year between 2008 and 2013…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
ton
ne
s)
North Africa Africa Middle East North America
South America EU Eastern Europe East Asia
India China ASEAN Oceania
…with strongest growth seen in the emerging markets (notably in China, Africa and ASEAN)
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
North Africa
Africa
Middle East
North America
South America
EU
Eastern Europe
East Asia
India
China
ASEAN
Oceania
Freeze-dried consumption growth over 5% per year between 2008 and 2013.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
'000
to
nn
es
EU Eastern Europe North America East Asia Other
Outlook
Slightly higher global consumption growth (~1.9%) is expected in 2016, although this crucially depends on economic growth prospects.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
ProducingCountries
Americas WesternEurope
Central &East Europe
Africa &Middle East
Asia &Pacific
An
nu
al
Ch
an
ge
in C
on
sum
pti
on
(%
)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Soluble consumption is expected to continue growing at 3% per year.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
ton
ne
s)
North Africa Africa Middle East North America
South America EU Eastern Europe East Asia
India China ASEAN Oceania
Our longer-term forecasts point to global consumption of ~180 mn bags by 2025/26.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014/15 2020/21 2025/26
mn
bag
s
Western Europe Producing Countries
Americas Asia and Pacific
Central and Eastern Europe Africa and Middle East
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