trends in fleet and aircraft retirement - asa · passenger fleet products operators ownership...

COPYRIGHT © 2015 THE BOEING COMPANY

Proprietary: The information contained herein is proprietary to The Boeing Company and shall not be reproduced or disclosed in whole or in part except when such user possesses direct, written authorization from The Boeing Company. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.

Helen Jiang Associate Technical Fellow, Airline Economic Analysis

Boeing Commercial Airplanes June 2015

Trends in Fleet and Aircraft Retirement


Agenda

Passenger fleet Products Operators Ownership

Freighter fleet

New and used airplanes

Aircraft retirement

Program update: ecoDemonstrator


Unprecedented, two models ( 737 / A320 ) will dominate single-aisle fleet

• ~80% of in-service passenger fleet

• ~85% of single-aisle backlog

• Combined production rates approaching 100/month

Data source: Western jets with >90 seats; Flightglobal Ascend May-18-2015; Boeing analysis


Widebody fleet will become more concentrated

Backlog (Flightglobal Ascend as of May-25-2015)

777 / 777X 787 A330ceo/neo A350 552 826 316 777


• 777 & A330 account for ~60% of in-service pax widebodies


Geographical diversity calls for global parts distribution

• Growth of middle class in emerging economies

• Liberalization and sixth freedom carriers

• LCC global expansion


Single-aisle

1984

4,000 units

1,400 units

1999

7,500 units

2,800 units

2014

13,500 units

3,700 units Widebody


Increasing operating lease share in passenger fleet


28%

6%

45%

Single-aisle Passenger Fleet

30% 17% 5%

Widebody Passenger Fleet


Changes in freighter fleet

• Widebody share of freighter fleet has nearly doubled since 1999

• 757s and 737-300/400s led recent uptick in narrow-body conversion

• Average age for 737-300/400 conversion has risen to 23 years

35% 64%

18%



Emerging markets are taking a greater share of both new and used airplanes


New Airplane Deliveries

2/3

Destination of Used Airplanes

1/2


Growing retirements drive strong demand for recycling capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

Airplanes retired (western jets with >90 seats, excluding hull losses)

Single-aisle

Widebody


15,000 aircraft to be retired in the next 20 years


Retirement age averaged 25-28 for pax and 31-38 for freighters over the past 15 years

Pax 28 years

Freighter 38 years

Single-aisle excl. hull losses

Pax 25 years Freighter 31 years

Widebody excl. hull losses


Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.

ecoDemonstrator Program Accelerate, Collaborate, Inspire

• Accelerate technology

− Learn by doing, reduce risk

− Speed implementation

− 18 to 24 month rhythm

• Collaborate with government, suppliers and industry

• Inspire action and innovation

Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.

• Maximize residual value of aircraft materials for aerospace and other industries

• Disassemble, dismantle and recycle the 757 ecoDemonstrator airframe

• Demonstrate environmental solutions for aircraft at End-Of-Service (EOS) to gain key knowledge on airframe reuse and recycle processes

BEGINS JULY 2015

Airframe Recycling at End-Of-Service 757 ecoDemonstrator


Takeaways

• 737NG/MAX and A320ceo/neo will dominate the single-aisle fleet

• Widebody fleet will become more concentrated

• 757s and 737-300/400s led recent uptick in narrow-body freighter conversion

• Worldwide fleet and increasing operating lease demand global parts distribution

• Emerging markets are taking a greater share of both new and used airplanes

• Growing aircraft retirements drive strong demand for recycling capacity

• Boeing is dedicated to bettering aircraft end-of-service solutions

Additional info: Key Findings on Airplane Economic Life http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/commercial/aircraft_economic_life_whitepaper.pdf

http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/commercial/aircraft_economic_life_whitepaper.pdf



trends in fleet and aircraft retirement - asa · passenger fleet products operators ownership...

Documents