Trends in Higher Education:Internationally, Nationally, State-

wide, & Locally

Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak

Coconino Community CollegeStrategic Planning Retreat

September 26, 2007

Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education

The World is Flat….T. Friedman

Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz

The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida

The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore

Etc….

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada

JapanK

oreaS

weden

Belgium

IrelandN

orway

Un

ited S

tates S

painF

rance F

inland

Australia

Denm

ark U

nited Kingdom

Netherlands

IcelandL

uxembourg

Sw

itzerlandN

ew Z

ealand

Greece

Poland

Germ

anyA

ustriaM

exicoH

ungary P

ortugal

Italy S

lovak Republic

Czech R

epublic T

urkey

25 to 3445 to 54

The Aging U.S. Workforce

Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

25 to 54

55+

6 to 24

Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education

Growth in Demand -

In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders...

66 graduate from high school

31 enter college

20 are still enrolled by sophomore year

15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years

NCHEMS Information Center, 2002

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1998 2008 2018 2028

Th

ou

san

ds

Jobs requiring some postsecondary experience Workers with some postsecondary experience

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business

Education Required

Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028

Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges do well—into

knowledge workers.

What are knowledge workers?

… those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce.

Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally:Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006

Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005

48.7

%46

.0%

45.7

%44

.6%

44.2

%44

.0%

43.7

%43

.7%

43.3

%42

.8%

42.4

%41

.7%

41.3

%40

.7%

40.4

%40

.1%

38.9

%38

.8%

38.6

%38

.4%

37.4

%37

.4%

37.4

%37

.3%

37.2

%37

.1%

37.0

%36

.6%

36.4

%36

.1%

36.0

%35

.9%

35.8

%35

.3%

33.9

%33

.7%

33.6

%33

.6%

33.2

%33

.2%

33.0

%31

.8%

31.2

%30

.8%

29.8

%29

.0%

28.6

%28

.5%

26.8

%26

.5%

25.0

%

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Colorado

New

JerseyM

innesotaN

ew H

ampshire

Verm

ontM

arylandN

ew Y

orkV

irginiaN

ort h Dakota

Washington

Rhode Isl and

Haw

aiiN

ebraskaIl linoisC

aliforniaU

tahK

ansasS

outh Dakota

Iowa

United S

tatesW

isconsinO

regonM

aineD

elaware

Pennsylvania

Florida

Montana

Alaska

Nort h C

aroli naM

ichiganG

eorgiaA

rizonaW

yoming

IdahoO

hioN

ew M

exicoS

outh Carol ina

Missouri

TexasO

klahoma

IndianaA

labama

TennesseeM

ississippiN

evadaK

entuckyL

ouisianaA

rkansasW

est Virginia

Source: 2005 American Community Survey

Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment -

87.1%

30.2%

83.8%

25.5%

84.1%

27.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Coconino Arizona U.S.

Percent of 25 Year Old Population by Educational Attainment Level

H.S. Grad

Bach Degree

U.S. Census, 2006

ARIZONA TRENDS:

• College in AZ has become less affordable

Average Family Net College % Income Cost Needed

$12,000 $7127 59%$26,912 $7608 28%$42,946 $8013 19%

Coconino County has a relatively low income level -

$53,642

$55,709

$58,526

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Coconino Arizona U.S.

Median family income (in 2006 inflation-adjusted dollars)

U.S. Census, 2006

State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005

12,3

5411

,342

9,66

69,

150

8,60

27,

890

7,71

27,

641

7,44

57,

240

6,99

56,

851

6,76

86,

350

6,26

36,

169

6,13

66,

097

5,98

25,

969

5,92

55,

911

5,90

65,

873

5,84

45,

833

5,71

05,

687

5,51

45,

495

5,38

45,

287

5,28

25,

280

5,20

04,

934

4,90

24,

874

4,85

44,

849

4,70

24,

691

4,56

14,

544

4,31

94,

221

4,19

63,

873

3,36

03,

296

3,01

9

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000W

yom

ing

Ala

ska

Haw

aii

Con

nect

icut

New

Jer

sey

Nev

ada

Mas

sach

uset

tsN

ew M

exic

oG

eorg

iaN

ew Y

ork

Nor

th C

arol

ina

Illi

nois

Idah

oD

elaw

are

Tenn

esse

eR

hode

Isl

and

Kan

sas

Wis

cons

inM

aine

Ken

tuck

yA

rizo

naN

ebra

ska

Mis

sour

iW

ashi

ngto

nC

alif

orni

aN

atio

nS

outh

Car

olin

aM

ichi

gan

Pen

nsyl

vani

aM

inne

sota

Texa

sU

tah

Indi

ana

Iow

aL

ouis

iana

Vir

gini

aA

laba

ma

Okl

ahom

aF

lori

daM

issi

ssip

piO

hio

Ark

ansa

sS

outh

Dak

ota

Mar

ylan

dN

orth

Dak

ota

Ore

gon

Wes

t Vir

gini

aM

onta

naC

olor

ado

New

Ham

pshi

reV

erm

ont

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers

STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004:

• 217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher Education Enrollments.

Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans.

CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate -

CC Primary Property Tax Rate FY 2007

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Coconino

Maricopa

Mohave

Pima

Navajo

Yavapai

Cochise

Yuma/La Pz

Pinal

Graham

An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since 2002. The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a 70.4 percent increase.

If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years.

Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006

Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid

Through 2005-2006 (last year for comparative data) --

Need-based aid: $2.8 million (43rd nationally) 23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally) $8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally)

14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region WICHE average: $170 National average: $415

Arizonans rely more heavily on loans: Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762

Average loan amount in top states – $2,619

State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment. Arizona/Federal Investment: 0%

Top States/Federal Investment: 89%

Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2006-07, National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006, 2006, NCPPHE

To Summarize…..

Increased globalization of workforce Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in

Hispanic h. s. grad #s Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd

Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to

community colleges AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely

heavily on loans

In Addition….. National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability &

Affordability

So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges? How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program?

competitively market? competitively recruit?

How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive?

W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond?

W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US (25-34 yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond?

W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond?

How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened?

Others?????