trends in laundry by 2030 -...

22 H&PC Today - Household and Personal Care Today, vol. 10(5) September/October 2015

KEYWORDS: laundry, megatrends, future, textiles, detergents, hygiene.

Abstract Megatrends are global changes in individual, social and technological structures that shape our lives. The aim of this paper is the identification of trends that will shape laundry washing by 2030, and their effects

on it, based on the expert judgment of the members of the Board for Washing Excellence. The conclusions indicate that the demand for washing will rise; laundry hygiene will be a major issue; laundry machines will be technologically advanced and interconnected; textiles will be more functional, based on not only new fibre blends but also on nano- and micro- technologies, and will have electronic tags interacting with the laundry machines; the share of bio-based detergents and textiles will increase as an answer to the resource restrained World.

Trends in laundry by 2030

INTRODUCTION

The term ‘‘megatrend’’ was coined by Naisbitt in 1982 (1) to describe the significant social, economic, political and/or technological movements that shape our lives. Megatrends are global changes in individual, social and technological structures which are thought to have a major impact on the future markets (2). Megatrends are larger in magnitude, longer in duration, and deeper in their effects than normal trends, fads or fashion. Mittelstaedt et al. (3) treat megatrends as social science constructs, because they: (I) are complex combinations of economic, political, cultural, philosophic, and technological factors, in their origin, (II) are seismic in their effect, both in time and space, and (III) emerge in the context of their times, as a product of the residue of previous megatrends. Since the introduction of the original megatrends (1), various organizations and authors have introduced their own megatrends, based on the specific scientific field that they examine. Based on the review of relevant literature (2-6), the following global megatrends that will shape the World by 2030 can be identified: (I) population growth and demographic change, (II) urbanisation, (III) rapid technological change, (IV) natural resources scarcity, (V) climate change and environmental pollution, and (VI) health and risks of pandemics.

The aim of this paper is to explore and present the trends that will shape the future of laundry washing up to 2030, based on the megatrends identified, focusing mainly on Europe. This assessment is based on the current status of laundry and on the expert judgement of the authors, members of the Board for Washing Excellence (7).

TRENDS IN LAUNDRY

Laundry performance depends on four factors, described by the Sinner circle (depicted in the inner core of Figure 1), namely: chemical action, mechanical action, temperature effect and time (8). If the role of one factor is reduced, the reduction must be compensated for by increasing one or more of the other factors to maintain the same level of washing performance. On the other hand, water has always been the most important commodity in any type or size of laundry. Thus, water has been introduced as a fifth factor to show its importance as the essential element in wet cleaning (9). Indirectly, laundry washing consumes other natural resources used in the manufacturing of washing machines,,detergents, washing additives and in water treatment. Laundry washing uses natural resources to deliver the cleanliness and hygiene to consumers’ textiles. These interactions are presented in the second circular layer in Figure 1. Finally, consumers’ behaviour, and governments’ environmental policies, affect all of these factors.

Laundry washing represents a consumption area to contextualize global megatrends into forecasts for the automatic washing process that we Europeans consider as an essential part of everyday housekeeping activities. Therefore, we have to identify among the aforementioned megatrends, those that are associated with laundry washing practice and how they are likely to affect it up to 2030. Based on the review of literature, the following megatrends are proposed as the key drivers that will shape the future of washing in Europe: (I) demographics, (II) resource scarcity and climate change,

KONSTADINOS ABELIOTIS1*, CAROLINE AMBERG2, CEVZA CANDAN3, ADA FERRI4, MIGUEL OSSET5, JEREMY OWENS6, RAINER STAMMINGER7

*Corresponding author1. Harokopio University, Department of Home Economics and Ecology, El. Venizelou 70, 17676 Athens, Greece

2. Swissatest Testmaterialien AG, Lerchenfeldstrasse 5, CH-9014 St.Gallen, Switzerland3. Technical University of Istanbul, Department of Textile Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

4. Politecnico di Torino, Department of Applied Science and Technology, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy5. Independent Researcher, Ignite Technologies, Barcelona, Spain

6. iWash Laundry Consultancy, 20 Penn Road, Fenny Stratford, Milton Keynes. MK2 2AU, United Kingdom7. Bonn University, Household and Appliance Technology Section, Nussallee 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany

DETERGENTS

23H&PC Today - Household and Personal Care Today, vol. 10(5) September/October 2015

washing machines that operate with minimum impact on the environment, particularly with respect to energy and water consumption. The energy labelling regulations have been in force for nearly 20 years and have spurred very substantial improvements in water and energy efficiency. However, these levels of efficiency are confined to one programme out of the 20 or more that many washing machines offer. This means that the consumer can operate the washing machine efficiently if they want to use that particular programme. Unfortunately that programme is not very widely used for a number of reasons, such as the programme time being too long; the programme setting being difficult to identify; wash temperature being too low; and general lack of understanding by the consumer. Changes to the regulations currently being considered will focus on making the efficient programme more applicable to consumer needs and providing clearer information about how to use the washing machine in the most efficient way.

As the global population is predicted to continue to rise between now and 2030 (16), even taking into account the predicted growth in renewable energy sources (17), it is clear that the provision of energy and water will continue to be an issue. Policies will therefore have to be developed to maximise the efficiency of appliances such as washing machines. This means that regulations will be likely to require the washing machine as a whole to meet certain efficiency criteria, rather than just one particular programme. How this level of efficiency will be achieved on all programmes will depend on the progress of new technologies. Current washing technology is generally considered to have reached its technical limits for efficiency so it may be overtaken by new approaches such as the polymer bead process. Alternatively, current washing technology may be able to take advantage of a shift in the way consumers relate to their appliances. Traditionally consumers have wanted the ability to take control of the washing machine and decide on variables such as wash temperature, wash duration and spin speed. In future, consumers may grow to accept that many products they interact with are best left to work on ‘autopilot’ such as driverless cars. Consumers may then become more relaxed about letting the washing machine decide how to do the wash. And with the introduction of a new range of sensors capable of identifying load size and fabric types as well as soil level and type, it may be possible for the washing machine chose the appropriate programme without any operator intervention. This could allow far greater control of water and energy than is currently possible.

The exact requirements of the regulations for washing machines in 2030 will depend on the technology available and the attitudes of consumers. The regulations will be addressing the same issues as they are today – energy and water consumption. If the regulations apply consumption limits to every programme, this could imply a need to test every programme, which would be very costly both for the manufacturer declaring compliance and the regulator verifying compliance. Instead it could be that washing machines would be required to be fitted with a device that limited energy and water consumption on every programme in much the same way as heavy goods vehicles are fitted with speed limiters. This should make implementation of the regulation simple, comprehensive, effective and affordable.

and (III) technological developments in general, and specifically in laundry machines, detergents and textiles. The picture of laundry in 2030 will be based on the current technological status and consumer practices, and on the global megatrends that will shape the world in 2030.

Regarding the demographics, the average annual growth rate of the European population currently is 0.22%, and will be 0.12% from 2020 to 2030 (16); therefore, the demand for washing is expected to increase.

During the past 40 years, electricity consumption per wash cycle in Europe has decreased three-fold while water use per wash cycle has decreased four times (11). Washing machine technology will continue to develop in terms of water and energy efficiency. Washing machines must be treated as water-saving devices. Water scarcity is an increasingly frequent and worrying phenomenon that affects at least 11% of the European population (10).

Note, however, that as a side effect of the higher energy efficiency achieved in Europe by the improved domestic clothes washing technology and consumer practices during the past 3 decades, little attention has been given to the possible implications for hygiene (12).

Although new technologies are emerging, such as the use of ozone for household washing (13), the traditional washing model with the use of a washing machine is not expected to change by 2030. Horizontal axis technology is expected to be adopted in other regions of the world such us the U.S. and Far East, besides Europe, due to its better washing performance and lower water consumption. In addition, closer cooperation between washing machine and detergent manufacturers, for issues such as detergent auto-dosing, is anticipated in the near future. In the following paragraphs, different aspects of the megatrends of laundry washing in 2030 are presented in more detail.

How will product and consumer policies evolve?Product and consumer policy in the European Union are expressed through various regulations covering the design and construction of washing machines. Principal among these are the energy labelling regulation (14), and the ecodesign regulation (15). The purpose of these two regulations is to encourage and guide the development of

Figure 1. Holistic shell model of laundry washing (HSMLW).


technologies and biomaterials have continued to evolve to new stages of maturity, there is an extraordinary range of new possibilities for enhanced functionalities within textiles, from new fibre structures, composite materials and coatings at the nano and micro levels to the visible integration of wearable electronic assemblies into clothing. Now, as a range of technologies, for instance, biochemistry and polymer chemistry meet computer processor miniaturisation to produce new forms of textile sensors, actuators and other smart textiles for truly functional and wearable computing. New conductive yarns have been developed which can be woven, knitted and even embroidered into electronically enabled textiles to provide innovative soft textile interfaces that are highly acceptable to the end user (22, 24). The intelligent character of a textile material can be introduced at different levels. It can occur at fibre level, a coating can be applied, other threads can be added to the textile material, it is even possible to closely connect completely independent appliances with textile. Full success, however, will be achieved only when the sensors and all related components are entirely converted into 100% textile materials. This is a big challenge because, apart from technical considerations, concepts, materials, structures and treatments must focus on the appropriateness for use in or as a textile material. This includes criteria like flexibility, water (laundry) resistance, durability against deformation, radiation, etc. (22). It is clear, therefore, that the era of ambient intelligence has not been tomorrow’s reality yet.

Current and emerging technologies for the development of smart (intelligent)/functional materials which are specifically adapted for use in the manufacture of textile products, include the technology enablers and drivers given in Table 1.

Functional properties can be defined as all the effects that are beyond the pure aesthetic and decorative functions (see Table 2). They include a large range of properties that in some cases can be also classified as “smart properties”, which means that they grant to the textiles the capacity of acting according to an external stimulation. The stimulus as well as the response can have an electrical, thermal, chemical, magnetic or other origin. The extent of intelligence can be divided in three subgroups: a) passive smart textiles can only sense the environment, b) active smart textiles can sense the stimuli from the environment and also react to them, c) very smart textiles take a step further, having the gift to adapt their behaviour to the circumstances (22, 24, 27-28).

Internet of thingsIn 2030 the Internet of Things will be well established (18). For laundry treatment, this means that most of our textiles will be tagged. Future textile tags will look similar to today’s care labels, but they will be much more powerful. These tags will not only contain all the information on how the textile is confectioned; they will also contain certain computational power which can locate where the textile is worn (via GPS or WLAN). When it comes to laundry treatment, the information contained in the tag will be read out by the laundry machine (today we call it washing machine). This information will be combined with recorded tracking information, i.e., where was it worn. By combining these information, cases such as sport shirt worn during a jogging session (sweat), shirt during working location (lightly soiled depending on type of profession), overall at the garage (oil and grease from car repair), skirt in the kitchen (food soils), etc., will allow the machine to predict what kind of soil might be present and decide what kind of treatment is needed. This predictive power of the laundry machine will be combined in the future with sophisticated sensors so that not only will scan it the textile tags as they are loaded (exactly like RFID (19)) but it will also be able to take spectroscopic scans of the wash liquor (20). This spectroscopic information will, along with the information on the predictive soiling, be forwarded to globally available databases (in the ‘cloud’) were they will be analysed by comparing them with information on previous wash cycles of all the other users of this type of machine.

Doing so continuously, it will tell the machine if most stains are sufficiently eliminated or if additional action is required. At the end of the programme, consumers will tell the machine (and the ‘cloud’) if the washing result did satisfy their need by pressing ‘I like it’. The additional actions the machine may take may consist of releasing special components either produced in-situ by the machine or dosed from an existing reservoir. In-situ production may be achieved for enzymes using a kind of micro-robot which has cultures for various enzyme types and means for fermenting them (21) or “benign” microorganisms may be added to help prevent biofilm formation and hygiene problems. As washing temperatures will be low, washing programmes will tend to get longer,and this will increase the risk of wear on textiles. To avoid abrasion of the textile and micro-fibres being released to the environment, the mechanical action will need to be reduced drastically. Therefore, the Sinner circle will shift (I) from thermal energy towards chemical/biological energy, and (II) from mechanics towards programme time. With these, the demands of the consumer and policies encouraging maximum reduction of environmental impact can be achieved simultaneously whilst maintaining a high level of textile care, cleanliness, and hygiene.

Future trends in textilesThe first decade of the 21st century has seen the emergence of new multi-disciplinary approaches to textile research. As micro-, nano-, bio- and information

Table 1. Technology Enablers and Drivers (22).

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for recycled products. -- New techniques and

materials will evolve to help resolve problems and create better products. Solventless techniques will be commercialized as performance improves and costs are lowered. Improved material properties requiring less material to do the same job is expected.

-- New brands, new visual identities and innovative graphical communication helping to provide awareness and information on new smart clothes and wearable technologies will be seen.

-- With groups involved in the new dynamics of ageing being established and networks building

Over the next 15 years, it is likely that there will be more than a billion extra people living on the planet, with global population growing from 6.9 billion to reach 8.1 billion by 2025. Population in developing countries is expected to rise rapidly, whilst population in the developed world will remain largely stable. Against the backdrop of population growth, the key resources needed to support that growth are becoming scarcer. By 2025, 1.8 billion people are expected to be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity. Agriculture is especially very vulnerable to climate change impacts and it is likely to suffer from the predicted rising temperatures, decreased soil moisture and more extreme weather events and flooding. Cotton is the most commonly produced natural fibre in the world and represents about 31 percent of the world textile market. It is produced in more than 100 countries in the world, but six of them - China, India, Pakistan, USA, Brazil and Uzbekistan - contribute about 80 % of production whereas 28-EU does only contribute 1 % of production. On average 33-34 million hectares are planted to cotton annually around the world, producing about 26 million tonnes of lint. Increased cotton production has resulted from intensive use of inputs, comprising of water, fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides, etc. While increasing use of some inputs such as water have resulted in exhaustion of some natural resources, increasing use of other inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides are adversely impacting environment through increased CO2 emissions, salination due to run off chemicals in ground water, etc. By 2030, cotton production is expected to become increasingly constrained as water becomes scarcer, and pesticides more expensive and regulated. In addition to the farming practices, there are various stages, such as dying and others, in the cotton supply chain which raise environmental concerns in the recent years.In the light of the technological developments, as well as the challenges related to natural fibers especially cotton, it may be foreseen that in the near future (22-28, 50-57):-- Environmental issues will have more impact on the

industry. The increase in world population and the exhaustion of renewable resources will increase the need

Table 2. Classes for Functional Clothing (49).

towards an inclusive and people-centred approach to good design, the development of people-centred products will increase.

-- Developments in three-dimensional printing have the potential to radically alter the way garments of the future will be made.

Future trends in detergent ingredients The increasing pressures on ecosystems, leading to resource scarcity, and recent technological developments are the main Megatrends that drive the most relevant developments of ingredients in the area of laundry washing. The rising environmental awareness of consumers, in addition to a stricter regulatory context, encourages product developers to make use of greener alternatives. From a technical point of view, almost all ingredients from fossil sources can be substituted by their bio-based counterparts.

There are three basic trends for new detergent ingredients:-- Increased consumption of high performing, fully

renewable and biodegradable raw materials of natural origin with less aggressive profile.

-- Increased use of ready-made ingredient mixes -- Increased flexibility of ingredients for new application

fields.

Promising ingredients such as surfactants from algal oil origin (29, 30), glycolipids (31) or microbial surfactants of marine origin (32) will make sense in a context of intensive, technology-driven use of renewable sources and will become commodities in the mid term. This will become a priority in R&D efforts to foster innovative products opening the door to vertical integrations of some companies (raw material producers, formulators and marketers).

Innovative fermentation products from sugar platforms, such as glutamic acid, aspartic acid, succinic acid or itaconic acid are spreading their presence as ingredients for detergents in recent years (33) and will also be commonly used.

27H&PC Today - Household and Personal Care Today, vol. 10(5) September/October 2015

The growing use of sugar-based derivatives (34) and polysaccharides obtained by biorefinery processes from crop residues offer a wider variety of functional applications (builders, surfactants, rheology modifiers, etc…) that also fit to these trends. Sugar-based ingredients will be an area of further development and is expected to gain more and more relevance along time.

Cross-category uses of new raw materials with increased demands of biodegradability as, for instance, functionalized silicones (35) or terpolymers (36), will gain significance by combining a wider flexibility in new application fields with a simultaneously enhanced performance profile. Economies of scale will, however, be critical to select the most promising options.

Preserving efficacy of liquid products based on natural raw materials also will further gain relevance due to an increasingly tougher regulatory frame (REACH, updates of European Directives, voluntary agreements, etc….) On the other hand, suppliers will tend to offer ready-made solutions to formulators, bluring the lines between parties and fostering joint developments in an open innovation pattern in order to minimise the time to market. New laundry treatments to comeThe conventional knob-and-button machines will disappear and touch-screens will be implemented even in middle-cost appliances. It is not only a matter of aesthetics: nowadays the number of washing programmes implemented in a conventional washing machine is limited by how many can fit around the knob. With the touch-screen technology this limit will be overcomed, and virtually countless programmes could be developed. We would call this phenomenon “mass customization of the washing machine”, namely users will personalize their washing experience by combining different temperatures, spinning speed, duration and so on to create their favourite cycles. Nevertheless, too many options could lead users to a frustrating feeling of disorientation; therefore, technology will be requested to provide assistance in this regard: the washing machine will retrieve frequently used cycles (some machines already do this) or will suggest the best cycle by sensing the type of garments, for instance with a Radio Frequency (RF) antenna able to read RFID-tags placed on the garment labels (RFID tags are already put in garment labels to avoid theft in the shop (37)).

Formation of odours due to biofilm growth into the washing machine is another major concern of consumers (38): it is likely that self-cleaning programmes will be implemented in future washing machines. These programmes will run using special machine cleaner additives, already available on the market.

Washing machine programmes will change as garment composition in 2030 is expected to change. Actually, garment composition is already so diversified that the classic dichotomy in “cotton” or “synthetic” programmes is obsolete. Let’s take for instance the composition of a sweater in the Fall/Winter collection 2014-15 of the leading European garment retailer. It contains five different fibre types, belonging to four different categories: synthetics (27% polyamide, 42% acrylic), elastomers (3% elastane), regenerated cellulose (14% viscose) and animal (14% wool). Such variability was inconceivable a few years ago, but

nowadays progress in textile technology has made blending of fibres more creative.

Blending will also be involved in new fibres that are expected to gain market share in the next decade. Much research effort is today dedicated to developing new sustainable plant-based fibres to replace crude oil-based synthetic fibres. Some fibres, such as polylactic acid fibres derived from corn, are already on the market (39, 40).

Another interesting trend that will be getting a foothold in 2030 is functionalisation of apparel. Special functionalities such as antibacterial, water and oil-repellency, fragrance and active principle release, flame retardancy, etc. will add value to garments (41, 42). Sometimes these treatments are susceptible to decay with care cycles and use. Special cycles could be conceived to restore the functionality with proper chemicals added in the washing cycles.

Laundry hygiene between resource scarcity and infection preventionThe hygienic requirements on a textile laundering process in 2030 will stand in an area of interaction of mainly two megatrends: the scarcity of the energy and water resources, and the increasing need for infection prevention measures. The latter is in the first place needed due to demographic changes in Europe, the increase in elderly people. Elderly have a reduced immunity to infection, an increased risk of death from gastro-intestinal disease and more aged will need special care at home (60). Problems of faecal incontinence create an environment in which enteric and food-borne pathogens can be easily spread also via an insufficient laundering process (61).

Secondly, hygiene measures are needed to face the potential scenario that antibiotic resistances in bacteria will rise and spread and no substantially new effective antibiotics will be discovered.

In a brighter scenario it is thinkable that antibiotic resistances are stable or even declining due to a restricted and targeted use of antibiotics. This can only be reached by a high effort in education campaigns, globally applied public health policies and consequent hygiene measures to prevent infections and latter medications (43). The need to take measures against the transmission of antimicrobial resistances was discussed on the G7 summit 2015 in Germany (58) and the World health organization (WHO) has recently released an action plan to face the problem (59). Sensible and targeted hygiene measures are crucial to prevent infections (46) before a medication is necessary.

Since multi-resistant bacteria are more and more present in the household environment like for example the so-called community-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (44), also a household laundering process can help to break the chain of infection and prevent the unnecessary use of antibiotics (45).

Due to intensive education and campaigns, future consumers will be better informed how they could do laundry in a sustainable way in a normal health situation and when they should apply a hygienic washing cycle and use an antimicrobial product. The use of an antimicrobial detergent

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or additive is beneficial in certain situations also in the home e.g. for protecting an immunocompromised member of the family. However, a general application of antimicrobials in household products is a burden to the environment and increases the problem of antimicrobial resistance (53) as mentioned before.

The consumer awareness of the necessity of targeted hygiene measures, leads to the need of new products for specific situations like malodour in a washing machine (washing machine cleaner) or a family member with flu (antimicrobial detergent or additive). Those products need to be tailored to the corresponding washing programs. Therefore innovation of detergents and washing machine programmes will be coordinated more than today.

Washing machines of the future will have a hygiene washing programme that maintains a 60εC temperature level for a certain time. The energy consumption of this cycle will be a part of the energy label or even a new ‘Hygiene’ label might be introduced defining the efficiency of the process to remove microorganisms and the energy consumption of this cycle. This cycle allows the consumer to maintain the washing machine hygiene better in preventing biofilm formation and ensures the efficiency of the targeted hygiene measures by using as less antimicrobials as possible.

Since targeted hygiene in the home needs a high level of knowledge from the consumers, technical features will support the consumer in acting sustainable and safe. A biofilm sensor (as already recently available for water systems, pools, and Legionella control (47)) will tell the washing machine when a cleaning cycle is needed. Dosage systems with different detergent types, along with sensors for soil load and microbial load (e.g. sensing of critical microorganisms or even antimicrobial resistances (48)), will let the washing machine chose the right washing cycle and detergent combination.

CONCLUSIONS

Global megatrends shape the world we live in. Laundry washing is an everyday household activity that will change in the near future following the global megatrends. Consumer policies will evolve to address human hygiene and resource scarcity, while laundry machines will be highly technologically advanced and will interact with each other via the internet. Textiles will be functional while electronic textile tags will contain usage, stain and cleaning information. Regarding the detergents and other laundry additives, it is expected that the share of bio-based products will be increased, in order to address the resource restrained world and water pollution.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Financial support from an unrestricted educational fund by Reckitt-Benckiser is greatly acknowledged.

REFERENCES AND NOTES

1. Naisbitt, J., Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. Warner Books, New York, NY, USA (1982).


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