trends in real estate - ncr 2012_vats

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NCR 2012


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MRIGANK VATS / SPA / UD / 2012

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NCR 2012

Abstract

Delhi is the capital of India and a

centers of employment, business and trade of the country and its

surrounding regions, and thus attracts migration, which has put

immense load on its infrastructure. To ease of the pressures of the city,

planned decentralization of the city to adjoining areas was done, which

forms the National Capital Region (NCR) .Owing to the proximity with

New Delhi, there has been a tremendous growth in the infrastructure

and economy of these cities.

Till a few years back, these adjoining cities and towns were either small

industrial towns or small villages with little or no infrastructure but today

the

landscape has been completely with the construction of new

commercial buildings and offices, mass- housing (high end and

affordable), shopping malls, skyscrapers, roads and flyovers, with big

and small real estate players plying in the market.

The research paper tries to uncover this NCR phenomenon, which has

been instrumental in the development of these cities as well as in

terms of the residential, economic and social aspects. The paper

concentrates in analyzing the way in which this phenomenon has beenadvantageous in the development of the cities of Ghaziabad and Noida

and also their subsequent reality markets.

The Case of the National Capital Region (NCR)

Delhi, enjoying the political status of being the capital city of India, was

previously a Union territory but is now a state. Situated in northern India

on the banks of River Yamuna, Delhi is looked upon as the second

largest metropolis in India after the busy city of Mumbai.Designed by aleading 20th century English architect, Sir Edwin Landseer Lutyens,

Delhi houses a number of famous places narrating the grandeur of the

yore. Be it the exclusive markets of Karol Bagh, Connaught Place,

heart of the tourists with its unparalleled charms.

REAL ESTATE(REGULATIONS &DEVELOPMENT)BILL, 2011

Of late, theGovernment

reintroduced the RealEstate (Regulations &Development) Bill,2011, the exposuredraft of which wasavailable forcomments. The billseeks to establish theReal EstateRegulatory Authorityfor regulation andplanned development

in the real estatesector. The objectiveof the Authority shallbe to take all possiblemeasures for thegrowth and promotionof a healthy,transparent, efficientand competitive realestate sector.

The Bill also provides

for establishment of anAppellate Tribunal toadjudicate disputesand hear appeals fromthe decisions or ordersof the Authority.


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Witnessing major historic developments, Delhi is without doubt a city with enormous tourist potential,

for it offers a variety in every aspect. Tourism in Delhi is principally directed to its historic monuments,

which have always attracted tourists from home and overseas. Whether talk about India Gate,

has its own clearly marked individual character.

Delhi has clearly emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in India, and has grown at a CAGR

of 10% between 1994 and 2003. The physical infrastructure in Delhi is counted among the best in the

country and the state government is proactive in bringing contribution of private sectors to give a real

realty boost in the state.

Since a decade ago, Delhi has been the numero uno hub for all foreign direct investment. A multitude

of multinational companies have placed their headquarters in Delhi and NCR, which accounts for the

real estate success of the state. There is no doubt that industry connoisseurs believe; making

investments in Delhi real estate can yield marvelous returns, as what looks to be the scenario of the

business here, which is currently driven by investors than by end users.

A lot of NRI investments are seen coming to the Capital city and a major portion of industry watchers

feel that Delhi and its suburban neighborhood will consolidate their recent profits in real estate prices

and shoot up further. Delhi holds third position in the list of inve

Driven by a positive growth, the real estate in Delhi is zooming in wake of upcoming real estate

activities in different parts of the state.

There are endless reasons that make the city a lucrative investment hub like:

High per capita income Excellent infrastructure Good connectivity to all the national and international cities High returns on property investment In last ten years, Delhi has also become a hub for huge financial investments and still continues

to garner the attention of global investors.

made Delhi, one-stop destination for real estate investment.

Why Delhi holds a distinct p lace?

Delhi has been and continues to be the major attraction for tourists, students and professionals from all

over the country owing to the reputed universities and colleges, the tourist places and the mushrooming

IT/ITES sector it has. Hence, there is a huge demand for residential, commercial and industrial plots in

Delhi and in its adjoining areas, the NCR region i.e., Faridabad, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad and Noida.

Though Delhi is believed to be the best place for property investments, but a lot of thought goes before

you plan to buy a property in Delhi.


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Intricacies about Delhi property market:

The prices of the property have been skyrocketing and are not within the reach of a common man.

South Delhi is one of the most posh but expensive areas for real estate investment. The prices of

property are tagged at such exorbitant prices that the property is bought and sold at crores of rupees.

This trend has moved towards other areas too like Dwarka, Rajouri Garden, Janakpuri, Paschim Vihar

etc. Moreover, people nowadays opt for high luxurious apartments, penthouses and builder apartments,which comprises of all the modern facilities and amenities rather than residential flats.

Icing on the cake

With Delhi all set to host the biggest sporting extravaganza in October, Commonwealth Games 2010, it

has made the city take a huge boom in commercial real estate market too. The city is gearing up to

welcome a large number of tourists, which is certainly leading to the growth of the hospitality industry in

sector. Delhi is expected to witness mushrooming of a large number of hotels this

seeing huge growth in terms of shopping malls that are coming up at a rapid pace in various parts of

estate sector.

Being the capital of India and major hub of all the IT and other corporate firms, Delhi is highly preferred

to be the ideal destination for investment in real estate sector. Though the prices of the property have

escalated to a large extent, but that has not deterred people from investing in real estate market. Of

course a lot of search and planning needs to be done, if you are planning to buy any kind of property be

it residential or commercial in Delhi.

Delhi Real Estate Market

A report says that the NCR will have a total demand of nearly 10.2 lakh residential units, 249 lakh sq ftof office space and 66.6 lakh sqft of retail space by 2013. With rising demand in residential, office,

retail, and hospitality sectors, Gurgaon tops the demand charts. Forthcoming world-class projects,

proximity and good connectivity to Delhi are a few factors driving these figures.

Due to a lack of infrastructure and the surge in prices of available land in other parts of the NCR,

Gurgaon and Noida are at the fore in catering to the demand for affordable and luxury housing. In fact,

for the sheer volume of residential units launched in these places, the NCR has a higher number of

units compared to the other five metropolitan cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata and

Hyderabad put together. According to a report released by Knight Frank India, nearly 86,000 residential

units entered the market in financial year 2011-12. The developers and promoters were able to gauge

the pulse of the market and launched more affordable and mid-segment projects than premium projects

in this period. As of March 2012, nearly five lakh units are under various stages of construction in the

NCR market. The vacancy levels have improved and stand at 36% in quarter four of the last financial

year, as compared to 40% in quarter two financial of last financial year.

that the market shows a positive outlook as sales have picked up in quarter four of the last financial

year. Even though the quantum of units launched in the NCR market is very high, a complete analysis

shows that unsold inventory will be absorbed two quarters ahead of the completion based on long-term

sales velocity at an aggregate level. The property rates in Delhi and the NCR were on a steady upward


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rise till 2008, showing an increase of 25%, but fell sharply during the global slowdown which affected

the real estate sector. They have shown an upward trend since mid-2009 and there has been a

constant increase in property prices with prices growing 50% since 2007.Under the new Gurgaon-

Manesar Master Plan-2025, the availability of land for development and avenues for new growth

corridors has opened up. The new master plan allocates 14,930 hectares of land for residential use;

this is good enough for over 58 new sectors. Most of the new developments are taking place in these

sectors.Records show that 35% of the proposed residential land is under the process of licensing. Themajor new growth corridors in Gurgaon include extended Golf Course Road, Sohna Road, Pataudi

Road, Manesar, Jaipur Highway and a concentrated growth in Bhiwadi and Dharuhera. Around the NH-

8, the sectors of New Gurgaon like 37, 37D, 80, 81, 82, 85, 86, 90, 92, 93, 95, and 99 are registering a

tremendous response.

Excerpts from ICICI Real estate study (Nov 2011)

Delhi micro-market witnessing significant redevelopment projectsThis micro-market is witnessing a large number of redevelopment projects, especially in the form ofindependent villas and row houses. Also prevalent in the market is the concept of builder floors, where the

builder buys a piece of land, constructs a building and then sells the floors to independent buyers.Properties are mostly available for resale purposes and the presence of private builders is very limited.

Delhi An end-user marketAn approximate 75% end-user presence makes this a largely end-user driven market. However, there is aheavy financier presence in this micro market.

Transactions sealed at higher rates than defined circle ratesAcross Delhi it has been observed that the transactions are at rates much higher than the designatedcircle rates. Circle rates are the minimum rates for the valuation of land and immovable properties inDelhi. These rates are taken into consideration for registration of instruments related to land andimmovable properties in Delhi by all the registering authorities. Land transactions are estimated at ratesover 10 times of the circle rates in most parts of the capital city.

Improved transportation networksAccording to the Delhi Master Plan 2021, 'greater efficiency and benefits through a unified metro transport

authority' are being targeted. Acknowledging the increased vehicle density, the government is trying torope in the private sector to develop parking facilities through multi-level and underground parkingspaces. It is also planning an integrated multi-modal public transport system to reduce the pressure ofprivate transport on the road. Cycle tracks, pedestrian- and disabled-friendly features in the arterial andsub arterial roads are also being planned.

Gurgaon

Gurgaon markets have reached a high level of appreciation. This year launches have been slow andthe transaction volumes have been low. However, over a 4-5 year period the Gurgaon market will seegood appreciation. This will be because of employment opportunities, heavy investor appetite and astrong broker community presence in this micromarket. While Golf Course Road (GCR) and GolfCourse Road Extension areas are seeing the launch of a few high end properties and builders arelooking at higher margins, areas like Dwarka Expressway are seeing interest on account of affordabilityand the bet on the future infrastructure in that area.

Noida

The market has ample supply and the demand has moderated. While the fall of Greater Noida and

Noida Extension markets has benefited Noida (rates have moved up marginally in certain projects), the


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situation is one of wait and watch. Over a long term horizon, the Noida markets will see a 10-15% YoY

appreciation on the basis of the healthy infrastructure story in Noida and its heavy end-user base.

Greater Noida and Noida Extension

Farmer protests over land acquisition in Greater Noida and Noida Extension have slowed down the

market. We see a downside risk in capital value over the one-year horizon due to land issues and an

oversupply situation. However, over the long term this sector will recover on account of good

infrastructure and continued demand from the sub INR 3,000/sq.ft. category home buyer.

The real estate markets in Gurgaon and Noida are driven by very different dynamics; they are in

fact at contrasting ends of the real estate spectrum in certain aspects.

Differentiation based on the respective governments

The Gurgaon real estate market falls under the jurisdiction of the Haryana government whereas the Noidamarket comes under the purview of Uttar Pradesh. Buyers tend to invest their money based on thecomfort level with the respective governments.

Contrasting methods of land acquisition followed by the respective jurisdictions

The Haryana government in Gurgaon allows developers to directly acquire land from farmers. Later, thebuilder applies to the government for infrastructure support for his project. So here, acquisition is followed

by the completion of the project and subsequently, infrastructure support from the government. However,

the Uttar Pradesh government in Noida follows a different model. Here, the government directly acquires

land from the farmers, after which it draws a plan in terms of infrastructure support for the area, and

earmarks plots. The last stage involves auctioning the plots to builders. So, infrastructure support comes

before the residential project.

Infrastructure issues

Gurgaon's infrastructure issues in terms of water, power and roads are a cause of concern. The city lacks

proper amenities to support the rising new supply. In comparison to Noida, the degree of planning and

road connectivity in Gurgaon appears to be flat. As discussed earlier, this comes from the model of land

acquisition followed by the government. In Noida many of the erstwhile infrastructure issues have beenresolved with better road connectivity, better water supply in most pockets, well laid out drainage

systems, and reduction of load shedding from 8-10 hours to just 1-2 hours. The Metro has penetrated till

sector 50, with the end station being 'Noida City Centre'.

Commercial presence in both the micro-markets

Owing to its close proximity to the Indira Gandhi International Airport, and the business-friendly stance ofthe Haryana government, Gurgaon has emerged as one of the most prominent outsourcing and offshoring hubs in the world. It is a major hub for the telecom, automobile and garment manufacturingindustries. Its proximity to Delhi and its status as a Special Economic Zone have made Noida a major hubfor MNCs outsourcing IT services. Noida also houses the head office of the Software Technology Parks ofIndia, established by the government of India to promote the software industry. Noida has also emergedas a centre for automobile ancillary units and major news channels and studios.


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Price Trends: -

North Delhi

South Delhi


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East Delhi

West Delhi


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Gurgaon

Noida


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Greater Noida


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Recent Data Analysis

NEW DELHI: Housing sales fell by 42 per cent in the national capital region during the first eight

months of 2012 calendar year and developers are looking at offloading their housing stocks in the

festival season, according to realty research firm PropEquity.

REGULARISATION OF UNAUTHORIZED COLONIES: Real estate prices in the national capital are set

to soar with regularization of 917 unauthorized colonies. With the issuance of notification by the center,

sale and purchase of properties in these colonies will now become legal.

Conclusion

The concept of the NCR has been a great one and on fruition it proves to be successful too. On one

hand it has decentralized the city of Delhi and considerably reduced the loads on the same ,on the

other hand it has also, provided the basis for development of other cities which are comparativelyaffordable as compared to Delhi. The major reason for all this development has been the proximity to

Delhi. The lesson which can be taken from this is, development more of such regions, which cater to

the rapidly urbanizing population of India. On the flip side, the recent Noida land controversy also,

leaves a lesson for the government to keep a tab on the market moves and the buyers to be cautious.

All said and done, it proves very clearly that real estate has been the guiding forces for the towns of

Ghaziabad and Noida.

trends in real estate - ncr 2012_vats

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