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Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council Luncheon September 2004

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Page 1: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing

Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing

DR. ROBERTA COOKDept. of Ag and Resource Economics

University of California Davis

Fresh Produce and Floral Council Luncheon

September 2004

Page 2: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

$498.3 billion food retailing (excluding non-food grocery store sales)

53% of total $445 billion food service (including

$17.8B foodservice sales made by food retailers)

47% of total around 844,000 outlets

TOTAL 2003 U.S. FOOD* SYSTEM: $943.3 BILLION

*Excludes alcoholic beverages and other grocerySources: ERS/USDA and The Food Institute

Page 3: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

10.2

3.6

9.1

4.3

7.7

4.3

7.5

4.3

7.4

4.3

7.2

4.3

7.2

4.3

7.3

4.3

7.4

4.2

7.0

4.2

6.8

4.3

6.9

4.4

6.7

4.3

6.6

4.2

6.7

4.4

6.6

4.4

6.2

4.1

5.4

4.7

5.5

4.7

5.4

4.7

5.4

4.7

70 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 2001 2003

Source: ERS/USDA

At-home Away-from-homeAt-home Away-from-home13.413.4

12.012.0 11.711.711.511.5 11.511.511.611.611.611.6 11.211.211.111.1 11.311.3 11.011.010.810.811.111.1 11.011.0 10.310.3

11.8

13.813.8

10.110.110.210.2

U.S. FOOD EXPENDITURES as a SHARE

of DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME, 1970-2003

10.110.1 10.110.1

Page 4: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

11

,57

4

9,6

32

9,6

99

9,4

17

9,8

14

11

,13

1

12

,50

3

13

,26

6

16

,86

3

15

,00

6

12

,89

3

12

,39

8

10

,30

1

8,1

83

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1988 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

NonfoodFood

Source: The Food Institute Report, 2-2-04; Column totals in white represent combined food and nonfood new product introductions.

19,458

16,56216,695

18,04319,331

20,076

17,56616,143

13,244

10,558

19,572

22,572 22,374

U.S. Grocery Industry New Product Introductions, 1988-2003

23,181

Page 5: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

3.2% 3.4%

4.6% 4.3%3.8% 3.9%

0%1%2%3%4%5%

Food At Home Food AwayFrom Home

Total

1990-2000 2001-2010

Trends in US Food Expenditures

CAGR

Page 6: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Source: ERS/USDA 2004

US Foodservice Segment Shares, 2003

8%

37%

3%

36%

4%

4%

6%

Fast- food Full- Service Restaurant

Retail store Other Commercial

Education Recreation

Other Noncommercial Hotel/motel

Full-Service Restaurant

Fast-Food1%

Page 7: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Since 1992 consumer spending at restaurants is up 56%

Consumers are trading up, contributing to higher sales in full service restaurants and fast casual (like Baja Fresh, Chipotle, Panera)

Consumers search for VALUE, 62% say they are “willing to spend more time and money for better quality food.”

91% of consumers say “It’s worth it to wait a little for food customized to my liking.”

Foodservice fresh produce and fresh-cut demand rising.

FOODSERVICE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FRESH PRODUCE

Page 8: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

1996

Source: FMI Trends in the Supermarket 2003, 2004

Sources of Takeout* Food in the US, Supermarkets Gaining!

2004

5%

1%35%

1%

27%18%

10%

Fast- food rest. Restaurant

Supermarket Other

Gourmet/specialty store C- Store

Don't know

25%12%

1%4% 48%

3%

6%

Fast-food rest.Fast-food rest.

RestaurantRestaurantSupermarketSuper-

market

*Takeout only, not all foodservice

Page 9: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Estimated Fresh-cut Produce Sales, All Marketing Channels, $

Billion

Source: DoleSource: Dole

6.03.3

15.011.8

9.07.1

02468

10121416

1994 1997 1998 1999 2003 2005 Over 60% estimated to be sold via foodservice channels Sources: IFPA and IRI

$ billion

$4 plus at retail

Page 10: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Value Chain,

2002 Estimated Billions of Dollars institutional wholesalers food service

establishments

supermarkets and other

retail outletsconsumers

exports

farms shippers integrated wholesale-

retailers

produce and general-line wholesalers

farm & public markets

imports

$3.4$3.4$19.2$19.2

$5.9$5.9

$40.0$40.0

$81$81$39.7$39.7

Source: Estimated by Dr. Roberta Cook, UC Davis, based on numerous public and private sources

$1.3$1.3

Page 11: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

415716 831 981 1,1691,3281,4771,671

2,0302,453

197

Source: IRI

U.S. SUPERMARKET FRESH-CUT

SALAD SALES, Million $

Page 12: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Fresh-Cut Vegetable Facts

• Fresh-cut veggies represented 31% of all pre-packaged produce retail sales in 2003.

• Carrots were about half the $1.3 billion fresh-cut veggie category, followed by spinach ($108 million), potatoes ($87 million), celery ($85 million) and mixed vegetables ($69 million)

• 77% of consumers purchase fresh-cut veggies, but on average, only once every 9 weeks

Source: IRISource: IRI

Page 13: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Fresh-Cut Fruit Facts • Fresh-cut fruit is still a small share of total fresh-cut

sales, retail sales were estimated by IRI at $238 million in 2002, with total fresh-cut sales (incl. foodservice) estimated at at least $600 million. Forecast by IRI to reach $1 billion by 2008. Household penetration of only 17% in 2003.

• Great potential for fruit in both retail and foodservice channels

• McDonald’s offering apple slices as alternative to French Fries in Happy Meals

• Quick-service restaurants and fast casual segment keep adding fresh produce, including fresh-cut

Page 14: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Supermarket Trips Per US Household Per Year

85 83 78 75 73 72

0

20

40

60

80

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council of N. America 2004

Page 15: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

81%62%

54%31%

33%23%

Cereal

Paper Products

Nonprescriptiondrug

US Supermarket Share Continues to Decline for Key Grocery Categories

Source: FMI Trends in the US, Consumer Attitudes and the Supermarket, 2004

20042001

20042001

2004

2001

(% Shoppers Who Generally Buy That Item at the Supermarket)

Page 16: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Top Factors in US Consumer Selection

of Primary Supermarkets, 2004

88%

85%

80%

79%

74%

73%

72%

68%

66%

65%

65%

62%

Source: FMI Trends 2004

Items on sale or specialsStore layoutFast CheckoutPersonal safety outside the storeAccurate shelf tagsUse-before/sell-by-date markedConvenient locationCourteous/friendly employeesLow pricesHigh-quality meatHigh-quality fruit/veg.Clean, neat store

Page 17: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Quality of Shopping Experience by Channel, TRI*M Index (Differences of 3 or more are

signficant)

Warehouse Club, 101

Limited- Assortment, 106

Dollar Store, 100

Supercenter, 93

Mass Merchandiser, 93

Supermarket, 91

Drug Store, 87

C- Store, 80

Source: Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council of N. America 2004

Page 18: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Quality of Shopping Experience by SUPERMARKET TYPE, TRI*M Index (Differences of 3 or more are

signficant)

Natural/Organic, 109

Total Supermarkets, 91

Upscale, 100

Main- Tier, 89

Price- Oriented, 96

Source: Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council of N. America 2004

Page 19: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Store Format Growth Trends and 2003 Sales*

2003 Sales$Million

2003 #Stores

2003 $% Share

2008 $% Share

Traditional $422,791 41,530 56.3 48.3

Nontraditional $235,100 40,721 31.3 39.7

Total C-Stores $93,518129,00

0 12.4 12.0

GRAND TOTAL $754,408213,98

1 100.0 100.0•Grocery sales only, excludes electronics, prescription drugs, toys, jewelry, sporting goods, gas, clothing, footwear, knickknacks, and hardlinesSource: Competitive Edge, June 2004

Page 20: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Store Format Growth Trends and 2003 Sales*Traditional Grocery Channel

2003 Sales$Million

2003 #Stores

2003 $% Share

2008 $% Share

Total Traditional $422,791 41,530 56.3 48.3

Conventional $97,110 12,450 12.9 11.6

Superstore $164,268 8,100 21.9 18.5

Food/Drug Combo $114,400 5,000 15.2 13.1

Limited Assortment $16,107 3,150 2.1 2.1

Super Warehouse $14,331 530 1.9 1.6

Other (Small Grocery) $16,575 12,500 2.2 1.5

* Grocery sales only, excludes electronics, prescription drugs, toys, jewelry, sporting goods, etc.Source: Competitive Edge, June 2004

Page 21: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Store Format Growth Trends and 2003 Sales*

Traditional Grocery Channel

* Grocery sales only, excludes electronics, prescription drugs, toys, jewelry, sporting goods, etc.Source: Competitive Edge, June 2004

Total Store Area

Average Total SKUs

AverageWeekly Sales $

Grocery & Consumab

les % of Sales

Total Traditional 195,777 100

Conventional 25,800 22,000 150,000 100

Superstore 51,200 30,000 390,000 100

Food/Drug Combo 55,700 52,000 440,000 100

Limited Assortment 11,200 1,900 98,333 100

Super Warehouse 59,500 33,000 520,000 100

Other (Small Grocery) 9,000 3,000 25,500 100

Page 22: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Store Format Growth Trends and 2003 Sales*Nontraditional Grocery Channel

2003 Sales$Million

2003 #Stores

2003 $% Share

2008 $% Share

Total Nontraditional $235,100 40,721 31.3 39.7

Wholesale Club $51,953 1,030 6.9 8.7

Supercenter $85,155 1,840 11.3 17.0

Dollar Store $10,686 15,000 1.4 2.9

Drug $33,189 18,500 4.4 5.2

Mass Merchandise $49,873 4,170 6.6 5.3

Military $4,243 181 0.6 0.6* Grocery sales only, excludes electronics, prescription drugs, toys, jewelry, sporting goods, etc.Source: Competitive Edge, June 2004

Page 23: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Store Format Growth Trends and 2003 Sales*

Nontraditional Grocery Channel

Total Store Area

Average Total SKUs

AverageWeekly Sales $

Grocery & Consumab

les % of Sales

Total Nontraditional 124,466

Wholesale Club 135,000 5,500 970,000 59**

Supercenter 190,000 125,000 890,000 60**

Dollar Store 8,000 4,000 13,700 66

Drug 12,000 20,000 34,500 34

Mass Merchandise 100,000 95,000 230,000 23**

Military 29,400 15,000 450,800 100

* Grocery sales only, excludes electronics, prescription drugs, toys, jewelry, sporting goods, etc.** Does not include gasoline salesSource: Competitive Edge, June 2004

Page 24: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

SUPERCENTER INDUSTRY SALES and UNITS, 1993-2007, (About 35-40% estimated to be grocery-

equivalent)

305

419 592

708

816

951

1,5

73 1

,971

1,3

01

2,4

57

2,2

12

1,7

77

1,0

93

2,7

12

2,9

87

$132$117

$98$84

$72$52

$41$34$26$16$13

$153$175

$228

$200

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03* 04* 05* 06* 07*

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250Units Sales (billions)

un

its

Sales

*forecastSource: The Food Institute’s Food Industry Review 2003

Page 25: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Domestic and International U.S. Membership Club Sales and Unit Growth Slowing, 1993-2007, (61% estimated to be grocery-equivalent)

1,1481,2101,3201,3701,420

1,270

1,078

886932

845786 822805

989

728

1051019691

37 40 41 46 48 5460 67

74 8087

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

*

2004

*

2005

*

2006

*

2007

*

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120Units Sales (billions)

un

its

Sales in $ billion

*forecastSource: The Food Institute’s Food Industry Review 2003

Page 26: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Competing in a Value-Driven Market

• Channel blurring has caused the retail landscape to be overstored.

• Plus, foodservice channels compete with all forms of food retailing which tend to offer ingredients to prepare instead of meals to eat.

• Retail Home Meal Replacement helping somewhat and fresh produce value-added products benefiting.

Page 27: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Competing in a Value-Driven Market

• Grocery retailers have been losing share to foodservice for decades, now to value retailers

• Conventional grocery retailers must identify value propositions they can own if they are to remain competitive! (fresh produce can be a point of differentiation)

• Bottom line: more structural change expected in the US grocery industry and more pressure on suppliers!

Page 28: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

The Revealing PercentagesConven’l Super Disc. ClubGrocery Center Drug Store

Gross 25.3 25.0 20.0 11.0Oper Exp 21.8 17.5 16.0 7.5

Net Margin 3.5 7.5 4.0 3.5 (Before taxes)

Source: Glen Terbeek

Page 29: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

U.S. FOOD BUSINESS MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS

1981-2003

666

588645

583

658724

599652

556

415365

468485522529

538

734

813753

641

516

413415

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Source: The Food Institute’s Food Industry Review, 2003

Page 30: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Percent of U.S.

grocery store sales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1987 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Top 4

Top 8

Top 20

U.S. Grocery Retail Concentration*

Source: Phil Kaufman,ERS/USDA; US Retail Census

33

4758

*Includes grocery-equivalent supercenter sales ONLY. Excludes sales of c-stores with gas. Excludes the portion of any grocery chain’s sales corresponding to their drug store, jewelry store or other non-grocery store sales.

Page 31: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

U.S. Fruit and Vegetable Supply-SideMarketing Structure Becoming Less Fragmented, 2002

Fruit, berry and nut farms* 26,571Vegetable and melon farms* 15,355

Number of fresh shippers 5,000Total chains, grocers, wholesalers 1,079Retail chains 267Produce wholesalers 188*Selling over $50,000/yr.; Total of 107,707 fruit, berry, nut farms and

59,044 total vegetable and melon farms, all sizes – US 2002 Census of Ag

Page 32: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Stock Price Performance, Top 5 US Stock Price Performance, Top 5 US Grocery RetailersGrocery Retailers

1/1/99 – 2/23/041/1/99 – 2/23/04

Chain % Change

Wal-Mart + 48%

Kroger -32%

Safeway -61%

Albertson’s -57%

Ahold -75%

Dow +15%

Page 33: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Wal-Mart 9.04% 3.48% 2.60

Kroger 5.18% 1.96% 2.64

Safeway 1.61% 0.78% 2.06

Albertson’s 4.11% 1.74% 2.36

Return on Asset Comparison, Top 4 US Return on Asset Comparison, Top 4 US Grocery RetailersGrocery Retailers

ROA = Profit/Sales X Sales/Assets

Page 34: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

• The experience from the merger trend of the late 1990’s has shown that getting bigger wasn’t enough to meet the new competitive benchmark imposed by Wal-Mart’s success in logistics, data management and cost reduction.

• President of Safeway just announced a move to net, net pricing, moving away from allowances, following on the Wal-Mart model. But, as always, fresh produce lags grocery.

Conventional Retail Chains Reconsidering their Models

Page 35: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

• The challenge for retailers is to effectively utilize scanner, customer loyalty card and other data in order to identify the right product mixes at the individual store level.

• Food retailing is inherently local, and as retailers get larger and consumers more diverse, intensive data management is critical!

Conventional Retail Chains Reconsidering their Models

Page 36: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

The FutureWal-Mart will be the mainstream retailer for the foreseeable future but there will also be lots of new winners.

New price driven retailers will increase competition for Wal-Mart and Wal-Mart’s growth may slow as it tackles issues faced with expansion in urban areas (high land costs, unions, local regulatory policies).

Consumer research conducted by The Hartman Group indicates that consumers don’t express excitement or devotion about shopping at Wal-Mart. Many just view it as a way to save on staples without taking over their shopping lives. Lukewarm support creates opportunities for competitors.

Page 37: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

The FutureThe winners will compete on various dimensions of value: price, product, service, and selection.

There are a number of formats successfully defining “white space” market opportunities. Examples include Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, Dollar Stores, and conventional chains like Wegman’s and HEB, as well as independents.

Retailers can deliver value to consumers at both the high and low ends of the price spectrum, depending on product selection and quality levels, and format design, by understanding the needs and wants of target segments for specific shopping occasions.

The middle, unclearly defined ground – retailers with no clear value proposition – will be increasingly challenged.

Page 38: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

• “Quality is yesterday’s news. Today we focus on the emotional impact of the product.” (Dilbert comic strip)

• Research from Cornell and U of Colo. show that income level is positively associated with experiential over material possessions. (Van Boven and Gilovich)

• Ego – Starbuck’s – an affordable luxury for all income levels

Products Distinguishing Themselves More Through Aesthetics, Adding Emotional Value to

Practical Use – Food Especially!

Page 39: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

• Travel; eating out, increasingly in restaurants providing more memorable experiences; and differentiated foods purchased at retail are gaining. “Upscale” positioning may be bundled with several perceived emotional values - organics benefit. Fresh produce is a part of the trend.

• But, to afford these “extras” people are often making a greater effort to economize in their routine grocery purchases, hence, growth in value retailers.

Products Distinguishing Themselves More Through Aesthetics, Adding Emotional Value to

Practical Use – Food Especially!

Page 40: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Consumers are Becoming More Eclectic: Unabashed Wal-Mart Shopper Speaks

The writer found a brown stretch top with a ruffle drizzling down the V- neck, for about $9, and jeans made of two-inch-wide strips of washed corduroy, denim and a blue lace print, reminiscent of Dolce & Gabbana, $17.98, at Wal-Mart. She wore them with Celine platforms, $420.

Adapted from Food Marketing Institute 2002

Value Propositions and Needs! This also applies to food. Flavor Density re calories.

EATING OCCASIONS MATTER!

Page 41: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US PER CAPITA VEGETABLE CONSUMPTION, POUNDS, 1976-2004F

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1976 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

ProcessedVegetables

ProcessedPotatoes

FreshPotatoes

FreshVegetables

Source: USDA/ERS, Vegetables and Specialties Outlook, July 2004

Pou

nd

s p

er

cap

ita

17646

90

126

438

359

115150

119

76

49

‘04

(Excl. potatoes)

Page 42: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US PER CAPITA FRUIT CONSUMPTION, POUNDS 1976-2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

ProcessedCitrus

ProcessedNoncitrus

FreshCitrus

FreshNoncitrus

Source: USDA/ERS, Oct. 2003

Pou

nd

s p

er

cap

ita

28387

96

2476

264

5529

78

102

Page 43: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

0%20%40%60%80%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04

very concerned about nutritional content

my diet could be healthier

Shoppers’ concern about nutritional content

and evaluation of diet

4562

Source: FMI Trends in the US Consumer Attitudes and the Supermarket 2004

Page 44: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Changes for healthier diet

Source: FMI US Consumer Trends and the Supermarket 2004

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '02 '03 '04

more fruits/vegetables

less fats/oils

less meats/ redmeats

less sugar

more poultry

more fish

more organic,natural

Page 45: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, 2002

U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS, 2002

Sources: US Bureau of Census; Food Institute Demographics of Consumer Spending 2004 for food spending only

111.3 million households 289 million inhabitants 2.6 persons average household size Average household income of $57,852 Median household income of $42,409 Average household food spending of

$5,375 (including $3,099 at-home and $2,276 away-from-home)

Page 46: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

SEGMENTATION/TARGET MARKETS• Variables commonly used to categorize consumer

differences to focus marketing activities– geographic– demographic– psychographic--based on attitudes & activities

• STATUS SEEKERS, CHASE & GRABITS, ENVIRONMENTALISTS

»Mass individualization!»Problem solving is key!»Understanding needs and constraints in individual eating occasions essential!

Page 47: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

US Household Composition, 2002

Ave. Household Size: 2.5 People

US Household Composition, 2002

Ave. Household Size: 2.5 People

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

Husband & WifeHusband & Wife

Single ParentSingle Parent

SingleSingle

OtherOther

50%

6%29%

15%

Husband & Wife with Children

under 1819% of Total Households

Husband & Wife with Children

under 1819% of Total Households

Page 48: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

$910 $1

,356

$855

$1,1

88

$876

$754

$546$1

,240

$1,5

58

$1,1

99

$1,4

72

$1,2

44

$1,1

08

$937

Average One Two OrMore

Two Three Four Five OrMore

U.S. Per Capita Food Expenditures, 2002, by household size – Small households

spend more per capita!

U.S. Per Capita Food Expenditures, 2002, by household size – Small households

spend more per capita!

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

Food at homeFood at home Food away from homeFood away from home

Page 49: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

$70,000+23%

<$15,00021%

$50,000-69,999

15% $30,000-49,999

22%

$15,000-29,999

21%

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

% of total at home food expenditures contributed by

each income group

% of total at home food expenditures contributed by

each income group

Average fresh produce expenditures per income

group $

Average fresh produce expenditures per income

group $

$520 /32%$520 /32% $235 /13%$235 /13%

$303 /18%$303 /18%$342/21%$342/21%

$384 /16%$384 /16%

DISTRIBUTION of US HOUSEHOLDS, SHARE of TOTAL AT HOME FOOD EXPENDITURES/INCOME LEVEL and FRESH

PRODUCE EXPENDITURES, 2002

DISTRIBUTION of US HOUSEHOLDS, SHARE of TOTAL AT HOME FOOD EXPENDITURES/INCOME LEVEL and FRESH

PRODUCE EXPENDITURES, 2002

Share of householdsShare of households

Page 50: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Consumer Food Expenditures, by Household

Income Level 2002

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Food At Home: 2,116 $2,483 $2,768 $3,006 $3,241 $3,555 $4,524

Food Away From Home 1,034 $1,286 $1,581 $1,875 $2,261 $2,994 $4,350

<$15,000$15,000 - $19,999

$20,000 - $29,999

$30,000 - $39,999

$40,000 - $49,999

$50,000 - $69,999

$70,000 Plus

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

Page 51: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

$184$181

$136$128

$242$247

White/Other

African-American

Hispanic

US Fresh Produce Consumption by Race

2002, $ Per Household

Source: Demographics of Consumer Food Spending 2004, The Food Institute

VegetablesFruits

Vegetables

Vegetables

Fruits

Fruits

Page 52: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

U.S. Hispanic Population Projections,

Millions

38.2 43.7 49.3

0204060

2005 2010 2015

Source:US Bureau of Census

Page 53: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Hispanic Population Boom,

1%12%

11%4%

72%

HispanicAfrican- AmerAsiansOtherNon- Hisp. Whites

1%

14%

23%10%

52%

HispanicAfrican- AmerAsiansOtherNon- Hisp. Whites

2000(U.S. Census)

2050(Projected)

Page 54: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Conclusions

Page 55: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Streamlining the Distribution Channel

How best practice retailers are

using information: Identifying and merchandising product affinities associated with popular items.

Grooming vendor capability to provide useful insights.

Source:Willard Bishop Consulting, Ltd.

Page 56: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Streamlining the Distribution Channel

New tools using data-mining capabilities

are entering the market to provide:

Cost-effective consumer-centric business processesCustomer purchase patternsProduct promotions

Source:Willard Bishop Consulting, Ltd.

Page 57: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

SHELF CAPTAINS• Leading, technologically savvy

vendors—sometimes brokers

• Take category interface responsibility for section

• May work in retailers’ headquarters

• Recommend shelf sets, product placement

• Very influential to category management

Page 58: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

Basic Strategies for Shippers• Low-cost grower/shipper• Differentiated year-round grower/shipper marketing a

premium product or product with identifiable preferred characteristics that are commercially perceived and valued

• First strategy increasingly difficult as buyers push more demands and services upstream to suppliers

• Increasingly shippers must add value and at the lowest cost – need strong core competencies!

Page 59: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

CONCLUSIONS: The Future?

• More and more, large year-round grower-shippers may become the sourcing entities for retailers, procuring volume above and beyond their own via geographic diversification, including imports.

• Smaller seasonal players will need to find niche markets.

Page 60: Trends in U.S. Fresh Produce Marketing DR. ROBERTA COOK Dept. of Ag and Resource Economics University of California Davis Fresh Produce and Floral Council

60

Quantity Quantity

FlexibilityFlexibility

CostsCosts

Tracking andtracing

Tracking andtracing

Quality:• taste!• freshness• temperature • shelf-life• nutrition value• consistency

Quality:• taste!• freshness• temperature • shelf-life• nutrition value• consistency

Specific requirements• packaging• pallets• size• tailor-made

Specific requirements• packaging• pallets• size• tailor-made

On-time deliveryOn-time delivery

Shippers

Safety: microbialand pesticides

Safety: microbialand pesticides

Fierce competition places multiple demands on fresh produce suppliers while product perishability continues to limit bargaining power... So more

shipper/supplier consolidation to come!

Fierce competition places multiple demands on fresh produce suppliers while product perishability continues to limit bargaining power... So more

shipper/supplier consolidation to come!

Source: Adapted from Rabobank MexicoSource: Adapted from Rabobank Mexico