Trends of Agricultural Production,

Technology Adoption and Trade

Presented by

Dr Jones Govereh

2nd September 2011

Outline

• Data Issues

• Production Trends

– Food & Export Crops

– Fisheries

– Livestock

– Forestry

• Trends in Technology Adoption

• Trends in Agricultural Trade

Data Issues

Comparison of Production Trends

Maize Cassava

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2002 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pro

du

ctio

n (

'00

0 t

on

s)

TIA EWS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2002 2005 2006 2007 2008P

rod

uct

ion

('0

00

ton

s)

TIA EWS

Growth in Output (%/yr)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Maize Sorghum Paddy rice Beans Grounduts Cassava

Av

era

ge

gro

wth

(%

/yr)

TIA EWS

Production Trends

Relative Economic Importance

Export crops

27%

Cereals

23%

Cassava

41%

Legumes

9%

Trends in Economic Importance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pe

r ce

nt

(%)

Export crops Cereals Cassava Legumes

Growth in Area Planted & Production

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Maize Rice Sorghum Groundnuts Cassava Beans Total

Av

era

ge

gro

wth

(%

/yr)

Area Output

Growth in Output of Export Crops

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Raw cotton Cashew nut Sugar cane Tea Citrus Coconut Tobacco

Gro

wth

(%

/yr)

2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008

Fisheries

Trends in Economic Importance of Fish

Sub-Sectors

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pe

r ce

nt

(%)

Crustaceans Sea Fish Fresh water fish

Average Growth Rates (%/yr)

2000 – 2008 fish sub-sectors

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Crustaceans Sea Fish Kapenta Forestry

Gro

wth

(%

/yr)

2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008

Livestock & Forestry

Growth in livestock herd population

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Cattle Goats Chickens Sheep Pigs

Gro

wth

(%

/yr)

2000 - 2004 2005 - 2008

Forest Harvest Trends 2000 - 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cu

bic

me

tre

s

Licenses Harvest

Technology Adoption

Yield Trends for Selected Crops

Yields Maize Rice Sorghum Groundnuts 2002 0.707 0.279 0.396 0.312 2005 0.508 0.203 0.300 0.202 2006 0.839 0.273 0.497 0.262 2007 0.681 0.284 0.435 0.255 2008 0.618 0.284 0.329 0.223 Average yields 0.671 0.265 0.391 0.251 Potential yields 5.0 – 6.5 2.5 – 6.0 0.8-2.0 Average growth (%/yr) 0.10 1.60 0.01 -1.90

Smallholder Technology Adoption

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Pe

r ce

nt

(%)

Irrigation Animal traction Organic fertilizer Pesticides Chemical fertiliser

Trends Agricultural Trade

Trends in Agricultural & Non-

Agricultural Trade

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

US

D b

illi

on

US

D m

illi

on

Total agric imports Total agric exports Non-ag-imports Non-ag exports

Importance of Agricultural Trade in

Economy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pe

r ce

nt

(%)

agric exports as % of total agric imports as % of total imports

Trends in Importance of Agricultural

Exports

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pe

r ce

nt

(%)

Cashew nut Prawns Cotton Timber sugar

Growth in Value of Exports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cashew Prawns Cotton Timber SugarAv

era

ge

Gro

wth

Ra

te (

%/y

r)

1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009

Agricultural Imports

Composition of Agricultural Imports

Meat, 2Fish,

crustaceans,

molluscs, 10 Dairy products,

eggs, honey, 6

Food

preperations,

meat, cereal,

milk, veg, 8

Sugars and

sugar

confectionery, 5

Fats and Oils

(animal or

vegetable), 12

Wheat and

meslin, 20

Maize (corn), 5

Rice, 32

Growth in Agricultural Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Av.

Gro

wth

(%

/yr)

OBRIGADO