trendsurfing: catching the waves of the future
DESCRIPTION
How to identify key technology, demographic, social and business trends, and how use them to prepare for the future. Presented by Lee CowherdTRANSCRIPT
Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future
Lee Cowherd, SPHR
Where Were You in ’92?
Key Trend “Currents”
– Technology– Demographics– Culture/Global– Workplace– Industry– Profession
Technology Waves
Technology Waves
Convergence– Computers will disappear– Internet/Phone/Computer– Undermining old technology
Technology Waves
NetWorld– Where everybody knows
your name (and almost everything else!)
– Cloud computing– Internet of things
Demographic Waves
Demographic Waves
The Graying of America– US population 2010 = 300 million– US population 2020 = 325 million
8% increase
– US population 65+ 2010 = 40 million– US population 65+ 2020 = 54 million
35% increase
Demographic Waves
The Graying of America– Septuagenarian population
explosion– Squaring the age pyramid
Mexico 2010
Canada 2010
1980
2000
2010
2030
2050
Demographic Waves
A Nation of Immigrants– Asian and Hispanic
populations are projected to more than double by 2050
– Non-Hispanic White population is projected to decline 6%
Culture Waves
Culture Waves
Global vs. Tribal– Globalization of culture– Individuals seek identity in
“tribes” – social, cultural, ethnic, religious, virtual
Culture Waves
It Isn’t Easy Being Green– Peak oil– “Green Collar” jobs– Conspicuous frugality
Workplace Waves
Workplace Waves
Will you Boomers please retire?– Where have all the dollars
gone?– Social (In)-Security– The new old– Seniority squeeze
Workplace Waves
Workplace Yoga– How flexible can you be?– “Work is not a place you go,
it’s something you do.”– Millies & Boomers – There’s an app for that
Workplace Waves
Employees or contractors?– Want benefits with that?– Life in the projects– Me, Inc.
Riding the Waves
Riding the Waves
Identify certain or near-certain trends– Demography is Destiny– “You canna change the laws
of economics!”– You have to pay your bills
Riding the Waves
Hindsight is 20/20 (with the right lenses)– When were conditions
similar to today?– If they knew then what we
know now…– What’s different now?
Riding the Waves
Beware of linear projections– The future will be just like
today, only more of it.– Look for “trend-benders” and
“game-changers”
Riding the Waves
Ask “What if…”– …this trend continues?– …this potential event
occurs?– …this highly unlikely event
occurs?
Riding the Waves
Experiment with the future– If – and – and – then – so – But . . .
Riding the Waves
Preparation vs. Prediction– Packing your bags– Build “robust” strategies– Continually monitor trends
Resources• US Census Bureau
www.census.gov• US Dept. of Labor
www.dol.gov• Pew Research
pewresearch.org• Kentucky State Data Center
ksdc.louisville.edu• SHRM
www.shrm.org
• Workforce.comwww.workforce.com
• Harvard Business Reviewhbr.org
• Wired.comwww.wired.com
• UK iWinwww.uky.edu/Centers/iwin
• Newsmagazines• Newspapers• Blogs
Join the Conversation
http://trendsurferblog.com
Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future
Lee Cowherd, SPHR