instant trend expert

INSTANT TREND EXPERTEverything you need to persuade colleagues and clients of the power of consumer trends.

GLOBAL TREND BRIEFING

AUGUST 2014

Trends are no longer trendy.They (like pretty much all types of content ;)

are now everywhere. But despite their ubiquity

– indeed, because of the very forces driving it

– trends are more valuable than ever.

Yes, information overload, hyper-accelerated change and the

innovation frenzy (which you may well be helping to drive)

mean endless overwhelm; but endless opportunity, too, if you

can harness them.

That, in short, is what consumer trends are for. They provide

a handle on the information onslaught and a framework by

which to understand rapid change. They allow you to process,

and focus.

Trends help you find the right insight or opportunity, generate

the right ideas, and then execute them in the right way.

The result? Delighted consumers.

INTRODUCTION

INSTANT TREND EXPERT 2www.trendwatching.com/trends/instant-trend-expert

www.trendwatching.com/trends/instant-trend-expert/

We know, you’re smart.You probably know all this already. But that

will mean you get asked these questions

almost as often as we do. Especially if

you’re trying to build a trend-spotting (and

opportunity-seizing) innovation culture in your

organization. Here are our answers. Hopefully

they help you convince skeptical colleagues

or clients too.

INTRODUCTION



Because no one wants to be these guys:

Thanks to the always awesome Tom Fishburne.



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BECOME AN INSTANT TREND EXPERTVia these 10 critical trend questions and their answers.



Spell it out already: what is a consumer trend?

QUESTION # 1



A new behavior. A new attitude or opinion. A new expectation.

Any of these can form the basis of a consumer* trend.

Underneath our definition lies a model that juxtaposes

external change – technological, social, economic and more

– against human nature, which, at its most fundamental,

doesn’t change. That model will let you understand how new

consumer trends emerge, and how to know a trend when you

see one.

Interested? Then scroll down.

A consumer trend is a new manifestation among consumers – in behavior, attitude, or expectation – of a fundamental human need, want or desire.

ANSWER

* We’re obsessed with consumer trends. Not industry trends (smartphone screen

sizes, car interior colors, airline seat legroom, etc). Not macro trends (think aging

populations, climate change, increasing economic inequality, etc). Unless of course

they affect consumer behavior, attitudes or expectations. Then we’re interested.



So Tinder* is a trend, right? Or is that just a fad?

QUESTION # 2

*Insert hot new mobile/social app of your choice here.



The difference between a trend and a fad? Trends emerge

when external change unlocks new ways to serve age-old

human needs and desires.

So: Tinder. The internet unlocked new ways to serve the age-

old human desire for human connection. Now, there’s the

expectation that the instant connection and social gratification

available online will be a part of offline social lives, too.

That’s a trend. Tinder is just one, hugely successful example of

that trend.

Is the service a fad, or will young urbanites still be swiping

furiously in 2035? We don’t have a crystal ball. It’s not

important anyway: trends aren’t about the success or failure of

individual innovations (see Q5).

But will consumer desire for instant connection and social

gratification continue? Yes. And will there be new opportunities

to serve that desire? Absolutely.

Fads come and go. Trends emerge and evolve.

ANSWER



So trends are market research? Then where are the stats?!

QUESTION # 3



Traditional market research is a powerful tool when it comes

to many questions: market size, brand perception, audience

share, and more.

But traditional market research is inherently backward-

looking, because it is based on data about what consumers

were doing and saying yesterday. And it is typically bounded

by what consumers themselves are able to articulate about

their wants, needs and behavior (and we all know what

innovators from Henry Ford to Steve Jobs thought about

relying on that).

Of course, data can support trend analysis. But trend watchers

understand that if they rely only on conventional market

research – that is, data on yesterday’s consumer choices and

statements – they’ll risk missing powerful future opportunities.

Traditional market research is inherently backward-looking. Trends are about right now (and, yes, tomorrow).

ANSWER



Okay, okay: human nature, external change. But what’s the point of the examples that come with every trend you publish?

QUESTION # 4



Examples are central to how we spot new trends and keep

track of the ways that existing trends are evolving. Here’s how

we do it (of course, it’s not the only way):

Our network of spotters sends us hundreds of local innovation

examples every month. They allow us a unique window on

global consumerism as it evolves in real time.

New products, services and campaigns are ‘bets on the

future’ – taken on aggregate, they allow us to access

the wisdom of the business crowd, and draw powerful

insights on new directions of travel in the consumer arena.

These insights can help us spot new trends, or help us

update existing trends. To see that in action, read TRENDS

REFRESHED.

There’s an added benefit, too. Examples bring a trend to life

by showing how the trend is being applied. Perfect for helping

inspire you to apply a trend in your context (and for persuading

colleagues that it can be done).

Spotting, analyzing and learning from new B2C innovations is at the heart of trend methodology.

ANSWER


http://trendwatching.com/trends/trendsrefreshed/

http://trendwatching.com/trends/trendsrefreshed/


But some of your featured innovations fail! Doesn’t that invalidate the trend?

QUESTION # 5



When taken on aggregate new products, services and

campaigns can help signal future directions for consumerism.

But trying to draw broad conclusions based on the success or

failure of individual innovations just won’t work.

A single example is simply one attempt to adapt a trend for

a specific context: that is, the target market and consumer.

There are simply too many variables (logistics, financing,

execution, etc.) at work to draw conclusions about entire

trends from one or even a handful of examples.

Plenty of peer-to-peer startups failed in recent years. But try

telling the founders (and users) of Airbnb that this invalidates

the ongoing trend for peer-to-peer consumerism.

Clusters of examples help suggest future directions for consumerism. Individual success or failure doesn’t tell us much.

ANSWER



Trend content is EVERYWHERE now. What competitive advantage is left to be gained?

QUESTION # 6



Countless online and offline publications in every conceivable

niche are creating a GLOBAL BRAIN of trend content that’s

accessible to all.

But here’s what countless magazines won’t tell you: trends are

not the point. Trends are just a means to an end: successful

(and profitable) innovation. It’s all about applying trends:

that’s where you win your competitive edge.

Which trends to run with? That depends on you! Know your

brand, capabilities and (potential) customers, and adapt the

trend accordingly. Let deep human needs and wants be your

anchor.

When to run with a trend? You can jump into almost any trend

at any time, if you’re aware of how it is evolving (tip – start with

the latest examples).

Want to start applying trends? Just see the bonus question (Q

11) at the bottom of this Briefing ;)

In the end, trends aren’t the point. The opportunities they highlight are. So get going!

ANSWER



But surely only some trends apply in my region or market?

QUESTION # 7



Baseline answer: trends are informed by fundamental human

needs and wants that we all share, and that means any trend

can (with relevant adaption) be applied in any region.

What’s more, we’re amid a convergence that sees consumers

from Boston to Beijing lust after the same smartphones, wear

the same fast fashion, and drink (dare-we-say-almost-the-

same ;) craft beer.

Just look at the wave of global on-trend examples (from

Portugal to the Philippines) featured in our recent INNOVATION

CELEBRATION publication. How many of them couldn’t be

adapted for your local market?

Of course, regional differences do still exist. How to adapt?

Ask: is the external change driving this trend different here?

How will the underlying consumer expectations combine with

local culture and values?

Local context is important. But (now more than ever), people are people.

ANSWER


http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovation-celebration/

http://trendwatching.com/trends/innovation-celebration/


Shouldn’t I focus on trends in my own industry?

QUESTION # 8



Focusing on trends and innovation inside your industry alone

is a sure way to lose. Why? Because you’re not competing

only against other players in your industry; you’re competing

against everyone.

Today, information and excitement about new products or

experiences travels near-instantly. Consumer expectation – on

what is possible, and who is doing it best – is set and reset at

light speed. So who are your competitors now? Your industry

colleagues? Or the brands in other industries that are finding

new ways to surprise, delight, and raise expectations?

There’s huge power in looking across industries. See how

other brands are using trends to innovate. Learn the underlying

lessons. Then adapt the trend to apply in your context.

Consumers don’t live inside industry silos. Neither should you.

ANSWER



How do I know if a trend applies to my target demographic?

QUESTION # 9



We know lots of marketers are still obsessed with traditional

demographic segments: baby boomers, millennials, luxury

consumers, and more.

First, with aspiration becoming increasingly globalized and

age-agnostic, demographic segments are becoming less

meaningful predictors of consumption patterns. If anything,

four broad segments remain: tech vs. non-tech. Rural vs.

urban.

More important, applying trends is all about adaption. When

targeting specific consumer groups, ask yourself: how is the

external change driving the trend manifested for this consumer

(their income level, age etc.)? How does this shape their

expression or experience the deep needs in play?

One good example: look at the way the INTERNET OF CARING

THINGS trend is being applied to multiple tribes, from exercise

junkies, to parents, to motorbike riders, to seniors.

Forget traditional demographics (they mean less and less). Instead, think adaptation.

ANSWER


http://trendwatching.com/trends/internet-of-caring-things/

http://trendwatching.com/trends/internet-of-caring-things/


I have no budget/ I am not in charge of innovation – what use are trends to me?

QUESTION # 10



You don’t need a budget to use trends. Nor do you need to be

in charge of innovation.

It only needed one waiter and a piece of chalk to launch the

SYMPATHETIC PRICING innovation that saw French cafe La

Petite Syrah offer discounts to polite patrons. If you have any

contact with consumers, you can use trends.

If you really have no opportunity to apply trends in your current

role, then there’s never been a better time to launch a side

project that has impact and can reach a limitless potential

audience. Crowdfund, and you don’t even need to leave your

job until you know it’s a success. Still looking for excuses? ;)

If you have any contact with consumers, trends can be your (not so) secret weapon.

ANSWER


http://trendwatching.com/trends/sympathetic-pricing/


PHEW! CAN I GET A SUMMARY OF ALL THAT?

We’re glad you asked! Here’s a recap, as TEN TREND TRUTHS.



TEN TREND TRUTHSThe first five...

Truth #1. A consumer trend is a new manifestation among

consumers – in behavior, attitude, or expectation – of a deep

human need or want.

Truth #2. Fads come and go. Trends emerge and evolve.

Truth #3. Traditional market research is inherently backward-

looking. Trends are all about right now (and, yes, tomorrow).

Truth #4. Spotting and analyzing new B2C innovations is at

the heart of trend methodology.

Truth #5. Clusters of innovations can signal future directions

for consumerism. Individual success or failure doesn’t mean

much.



TEN TREND TRUTHSThe remaining five...

Truth #6. In the end, trends aren’t the point. The opportunities

they highlight are. So get going!

Truth #7. Local context is important. But (now more than ever),

people are people.

Truth #8. Consumers don’t live inside industry silos. Neither

should you.

Truth #9. Forget traditional demographics (they mean less and

less). Instead, think adaptation.

Truth #10. If you have any contact with consumers, trends can

be your (not so secret) weapon.



BONUS QUESTION!Okay, I understand trends. How do I apply them to come up

with innovations of my own?



That’s the spirit!To get started applying trends today,

use our free CONSUMER TREND

CANVAS: a tool to help you unpack a

trend, contextualize, and ideate.

NEXT


http://trendwatching.com/trends/consumertrendcanvas/

http://trendwatching.com/trends/consumertrendcanvas/


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PAUL BACKMANChief Client Officer [email protected]

ABoUt UsEstablished in 2002, trendwatching.com is the world’s leading trend firm, scanning the globe for the most promising consumer trends, insights and related hands-on business ideas. Our Premium Service counts

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