trims technical risk identification and mitigation system

TRIMSTRIMS

Technical Risk Identification Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation Systemand Mitigation System

Presented By:

Ralph SickingerRalph SickingerPMWS Development ManagerPMWS Development [email protected]@bmpcoe.org

25 August, 200825 August, 2008

www.bmpcoe.org Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System 2

The BMP ProgramThe BMP Program


Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)

Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense

Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments)

BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)

BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template

First version of PMWS is created

BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD

BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman)

1960-1980

1983-1984

1985

1986

1987

1991

1993

2000

History of the BMP ProgramHistory of the BMP Program


Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overrunsMany programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)








1960-19801960-1980

1983-1984

1985

1986

1987

1991

1993

2000



Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns

Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”)








1960-1980

1983-19841983-1984

1985

1986

1987

1991

1993

2000



Money Phasing

Design Reference Mission Profile

Design Requirements

Trade Studies

Design Policy

Design Process

Design Analysis

Parts & Material Selection

Software Design

Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

Design for Testing

Built-In Test (BIT)

Configuration Control

Design Reviews

Design Release

Integrated Test

Failure Reporting System

Uniform Test Report

Software Test

Design Limit

Life

Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)

Field Feedback

Manufacturing Plan

Qualify Manufacturing Process

Piece Part Control

Subcontractor Control

Defect Control

Tool Planning

Special Test Equipment (STE)

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)

Manufacturing Screening

Transition Plan

Modernization

Factory Improvements

Productivity Center

Logistics Support Analysis

Manpower & Personnel

Support & Test Equipment

Training Materials & Equipment

Spares

Technical Manuals

Manufacturing Strategy

Personnel Requirements

Data Requirements

Technical Risk Assessment

Production Breaks

Problem Areas Identified by DSBProblem Areas Identified by DSB


FUNDING:FUNDING:

Money Phasing

DESIGN:DESIGN:

Design Reference Mission Profile

Design Requirements

Trade Studies

Design Policy

Design Process

Design Analysis

Parts & Material Selection

Software Design

Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

Design for Testing

Built-In Test (BIT)

Configuration Control

Design Reviews

Design Release

TEST:TEST:

Integrated Test

Failure Reporting System

Uniform Test Report

Software Test

Design Limit

Life

Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)

Field Feedback

PRODUCTION:PRODUCTION:

Manufacturing Plan

Qualify Manufacturing Process

Piece Part Control

Subcontractor Control

Defect Control

Tool Planning

Special Test Equipment (STE)

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)

Manufacturing Screening

TRANSITION:TRANSITION:

Transition Plan

FACILITIES:FACILITIES:

Modernization

Factory Improvements

Productivity Center

LOGISTICS:LOGISTICS:

Logistics Support Analysis

Manpower & Personnel

Support & Test Equipment

Training Materials & Equipment

Spares

Technical Manuals

MANAGEMENT:MANAGEMENT:

Manufacturing Strategy

Personnel Requirements

Data Requirements

Technical Risk Assessment

Production Breaks

Problem Areas Identified by DSBProblem Areas Identified by DSB


“Willoughby Templates”

DoD 4245.7-MDoD 4245.7-M


NAVSO P-6071NAVSO P-6071

“Best Practices Book”


NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)


• Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons

• Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are Due to Inadequate Design

• February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition & Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate

– Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24%– Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40%

• March 2005 GAO Report:• Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years– Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology,

with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...”

• With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks

Some Things To ConsiderSome Things To Consider

Do NotNot Get Technology Tunnel Vision


TRIMSTRIMS


• TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System): A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based, Process-Oriented Risk Management

• Includes Set of Software Tools to Help Implement the Methodology (Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle)

• Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates

• Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry Systems Engineering Model

• Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training,On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk

What Is TRIMS?What Is TRIMS?

Process Based And Predictive


TRIMS Proactive MethodologyTRIMS Proactive Methodology

TRIMS

Probability Effect

• Risk Management

• Snapshot Assessments

• Multiple Program Rollups

• Automatic Updates

Milestone Dates

PersonnelAssignments

QuestionWeighting

Due Dates

References

ComplianceStatus

Risks

Next Actions

Responsibilities

Action ItemTracking

Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost

Guidance Documents

EngineeringProcess Model

Statistics

PastExperience

Planning &Tracking

SystemArchitecture

Risk Management

Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

Risk Assessment


TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

Proactive vs. ReactiveProactive vs. Reactive

Technical Issues

Schedule Slippage

Cost Overruns

Process Risks

Reactive

Proactive


Process Risks Problems

Product Risks

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

“A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

Evolution of RisksEvolution of Risks


Time

Cos

t to

Miti

gate

Design Test Production

$1

$100

$10

Cost To Mitigate Increases ExponentiallyCost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially


Process Risks

Product Risks

Problems

Risk Management or Damage Control?

Cost To Mitigate Increases ExponentiallyCost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially

Time

Cos

t to

Miti

gate

Design Test Production


PRODUCT TQM

FUNDING MoneyPhasing

DESIGN TEST PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT

TRANSITION PLAN

• Design Refer. Mission Profile

• Design Requirements

• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis

• Parts & Mater. Selection

• Software Design

• Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

• Design for Testing

• Built-In Test (BIT)

• Configuration Control

• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Integrated Test

• Failure Reporting System

• Uniform Test Report

• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life

• Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF)

• Field Feedback

• Manufacturing Plan

• Qualify Manufacturing Process

• Piece Part Control

• Subcontractor Control

• Defect Control

• Tool Planning

• Special Test Equipment (STE)

• CAM

• Manufacturing Screening

• Modernization

• Factory Improvements

• Productivity Center

• Logistics Support Analysis

• Manpower & Personnel

• Support & Test Equipment

• Training Materials & Equipment

• Spares

• Technical Manuals

• Manufacturing Strategy

• Personnel Requirements

• Data Requirements

• Technical Risk Assessment

• Production Breaks

TRIMS Baseline TemplatesTRIMS Baseline Templates


PRODUCT TQM



TRANSITION PLAN



• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis


• Software Design





• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Integrated Test



• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life


• Field Feedback





• Defect Control

• Tool Planning


• CAM


• Modernization







• Spares








CAM•Manufacturing Screening


PRODUCT TQM


CostAssessment


TRANSITION PLAN

New PMWSTemplatesNew PMWSTemplates



• Trade Studies

• Design Policy

• Design Process

• Design Analysis


• Software Design





• Design Reviews

• Design Release

• Concept Studies & Analysis

• Bread Board Development

• Brass Board Development

• Specification Dev/Allocation/ Validation

• Design for Assembly

• Prototype Development & Review

• Integrated Test



• Software Test

• Design Limit

• Life


• Field Feedback

• TEMP Development/ Execution

• Software Simulator





• Defect Control

• Tool Planning


• CAM


• Production Fabrication

• Environmental Issues

• Modernization



• Field Visits/Site Surveys





• Spares


• Logistics Analysis Documentation






• Determining Defining Need for System

• Prepare Requirement Documents

• Quality Assurance

• Design/Milestone Review Planning

• Make or Buy Decisions

• Technology Base Analysis

• Schedule & Planning

• Dim. Manuf. Sources & Mat. Shortage (DMSMS)


CAM•Manufacturing Screening

•Production Fabrication•Environmental Issues


UserAdded

Templates

UserAdded

TemplatesUser

AddedQuestions

UserAdded

Questions

3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Base

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

TRIMS Hierarchy

Design Test Production Facilities LogisticsManagementFunding TransitionPlan

User Added

Categories

User Added

Categories

TRIMS TailoringTRIMS Tailoring


3 Tiers: Category

Template

Knowledge

Base

Question

4.0 Design

4.6 Design Analysis

4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

TRIMS TailoringTRIMS Tailoring

User CreatedModel

User CreatedModel


• Identify Risks Before they Become Problems

• Build YOUR Knowledge into TRIMS– Use the Systems Engineering Knowledge Base as a Starting Point for

A Good Engineering Process

• Create a Concrete, Repeatable Process for Evaluating & Comparing Programs & Contractors

• Ease the Learning Curve for New Employees

• Retain Knowledge of Lost Employees

• Share Knowledge

• To Maximize Benefits of Using TRIMS– Apply as Early as Possible in Program Life– Apply to All Subcontractors, Divisions & Vendors Involved– Use Tool Regularly to Prioritize Resources & Make Decisions

Tailoring TRIMS To Your NeedsTailoring TRIMS To Your Needs


TRIMS Has Many Applications

• Existing (Released) Models– Systems Engineering

– Software Risk Engineering (Carnegie Mellon)

– Circuit Card Testability

– Interoperability and Integration

• Existing (Beta) Models– Human Factors Engineering

• Development (Prototype) Models– Management

– Port Security/Force Protection

– SBIR ◄ ◄ ◄

TRIMS Knowledge ModelsTRIMS Knowledge Models


TRIMS Version 4TRIMS Version 4


TRIMS - Total Risk ManagementTRIMS - Total Risk Management

PP33RMRM

Problem, Product & Problem, Product & ProcessProcess Risk Management, Risk Management,

in a Single Tool!in a Single Tool!


ConclusionConclusion


How To Get Help Using TRIMSHow To Get Help Using TRIMS

• Use the Help menus

• Use the Computer-Based Training (CBT) Videos – Available on PMWS CD and on BMP’s Website– These are Animated & Narrated Tours Showing Each Step of

Using TRIMS

• Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963

• E-Mail the BMP Center at [email protected]

• Arrange a Training Session

Help Is Available


3 Things To Remember…3 Things To Remember…

• DoD 4245.7-M / NAVSO P-6071

– The Transition from Development to Production

– The Best Practices Book

• TRIMS

– Free Tool

– P3RM – Supports Problem, Product, and Process Risk Tracking!

• BMP Enterprise / BMP Center of Excellence

– An Available Resource – www.bmpcoe.org

– Call our 24 Hour Helpdesk 301-405-9963

[ End of Presentation ]