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Trip to Middle East and Europe 12/29/77-1/6/78. No 2 Folder Citation: Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder: Trip to Middle East and Europe 12/29/77-1/6/78. No. 2; Container 57 To See Complete Finding Aid: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/library/findingaids/Staff_Secretary.pdf

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Trip to Middle East and Europe 12/29/77-1/6/78. No 2

Folder Citation: Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder: Trip to Middle East and Europe 12/29/77-1/6/78. No. 2; Container 57

To See Complete Finding Aid: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/library/findingaids/Staff_Secretary.pdf

F,OF;IM Of DOCUM(:NT

W.ITHDRAWA,L SHEE:r (PRESIDENJIA·L .LIBRARIES) 0

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FILE LOCATION

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12/30/77

:: :1!2/29/7]

1/Q/78

1/2/'78

12/30/77

1/2/78

12/29/77

UNDATED

.1/'4/77

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·carter Presiden.ti.al Pa,pe;rs- s'ta;f;f.":Of;f.icel:).,. 0;f;fice Qf ... tne Stp,f;f, S~c. 1 P;res. Hand-writing File Til:'ip: to: the Mideast arid Europe 12/29/77.-l/'~/78. No. ''l,.

1[[2] ;. . . '.

·RESTRICTION CODES

·(AI . Cl'osed by Executive Order 12356'governing.access to national security infofmatiori. (BI Closed by statute or by ·the agency which originated the document. . (C) closed ·in accordance with restrictions contained in the donor's deed of glfe ·

"~'I·

NATIONAL ~RCHIVESAND RECO.RDS AD·MI·NISTRATJON. . "..;

NA FOfi.M 1429 (e-:as):

MEMORANDUM FOR:

FROM:

SUBJECT:

THE PRESIDENT ,

Cyrus Vance e,-vJ Y:our Meeting with Robert F'abre

(Pronounced: FAB-RUH Speaks_ no English Address as: Monsieur le Depute)

Your Objectives - To affirm our desire to see demo­cratic forces in Europe, inclading the Left Radical Party, flourish and', while emphas'iziag our serious. concern at the prospect of any Communist participation in the French Government, to encourage Robert Fabre in his role as a voice of realism and moderatioa on the French left. • 0

. Fabre's Objectives - To ·maintain and enhance .his poli-t·ical identity as leader of the "other component" of the

. democratic left and to assure you that the Le.ft Radicals will not be coerced by either s·ocialists or Communists to support policies which are not their own.

The Left Radicals and the Union of the Left - Robert Fabre 1.s one of the· true "·personalities" on the French political scene, a pharmacist (still practicing) turned national politician. Mayor of his small hometown in south­central France since 1953 and deputy since 1962, Fabre's real reputation stems from his role as President of the Left Radical Party (MRG), the junior member (2-3% of the vote, 13 out of 491 deputies), in the Union of the Left with the much larger Socialist and Communist parties. Although signatories of the Common Program; the Left Radicals differ from their political allies in being at heart more centrist and much less Marxist-oriented,. particularly on economic questions (where they emphasize the private sector) and international affairs (where they are more Atlanticist). However, the MRG is ready to govern in a Left coalition in­cluding Socialists and Communists.

Fabre's problem since 1972 has been to preserve the identity of his movement in the midst of a political union where his electoral importance is small, but poteatially cr±tical. He has done so with some success, largely through high visibility public actions which demoastrate that the MRG is an independent actor on the political scene. It was Fabre, for example, who literally pushed Communist leader

.•.. - 2 -

Marchais away from the microphone on September 14 to announce .. that the Left Radicals were breaking off neg,otiations on

- the Common Program because of Communist intransig,ence. Since . that time, Fabre''·s popularity· has climbed while that of Mitt~rand and Mar.chais. has steadily declined.

The Left Radicals, althoug.h small, have a potentially important role to play in French poli tic·s·, regardless of who wins ne:xt March. Within a Le-ft governmen~, the, MRG would se~ve. as a conservative r_estrainirig force on · Soc.ialist programs, using as leverage the "hinge" votes necessary for

.?1 parliamentary majority. .Should the Left fail, the Left 'Radicals cou·ld be enticed to leave the Union of the Le·ft. . (although the party would almost surely .split into factions) in favor of·President Giscard's idea of an expanded and centrist-oriented majority.

Your Meeting - _Fabre wants. simply to pay his respects while marking his independent stature as a political leader who does not live·in Mitterand's shadow. He may seek tn convince y<;m that the Left Radicals share many of our basic concerns':' a distrust of th~ Communists, emphasis ~ oi)·iithe free enterprise system, and a. strong commitment to Western defense efforts and to European development.

Points to be Made:

-- Bec~use Fr~nce occupies such a vital positi6n, we would regre-t. any development which divided or _weakened -France, ~reated uncertainty regardin~ France's basic orien~ tation or limited France'S ability to work with its frli.!~nds and allies •.

--- At the same time we firmly believe that· Western society must move toward more egalitarian social and economic forms if it is to retain its vigor and crea ti vi ty •.. We are promoting change in our own country, and we have no intention of seeking to frustrate it in others.

-- Whil'e of cn:urse we will respect any democratic deci­sion in any country, as you know we are concerned about Communist participation in an allied government.

' '

--AMEMBASSY -NEW DELHI

UNCL\SSifU~.D ACTION

INCOMING

NNNNVV l.GO 6.39 · 00 RUEHND DE RUEHFO 00011.5 0011645

==.r-"f"--t ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZYN 0 P 011611Z JAN 78 ZF'F-4 FM USINFO WASHDC TO RUEHND/PRESIDENT'S PARTY IMMEDIATE INFO RUEADWW/WHI TE HOUSE PRIORITY RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY BT UNCLAS

ODC PRESIDENT'S PARTY FO-R POWELL AND SCHECTER ~DA=O~--op:-;. IN15EFURTH FOR DR. BRZEZINSKI SCI SECRETARY'S PARTY FOR TRATTNER LAB

CN ____ _

DATE ____ _

. : :· (

.. : .. i

~AA-=0--+--t WHITE HOUSE FOR WURF'EL, AARO·N, SHAVER AN.D M'AXINE B·URNS PRIORITY .ADM STATE-DEPT. FOR. CHRISTOPH:ER AND CAHILl PRIORITY PER BF FOREIGN MEDIA REACTION REPORT -- PRESIDENT'S TRIP -~<TAKE ONE OJi USDO FOUR) . _,.- · GSO =SY~--f<--1· FOLLOWING IS A REPORT OF FOREIGN MEDIA REACTION AS OF NOON EST =.CR=o~-+-; JANUARY 1, 1978, PREPARED BY THE UNITED STATES INFORMATION AGENCY. =CR=-=-T--t-1 THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP CONTINUED TO DRAW TOP ATTENTION IN THE MEDIA, =CE=O~-+-;. WITH MOST EMPHASIS BEING GIVEN TO MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIA.TIONS AND THE =CE=O~T~-+--t PRESIDENT'S ASSISTANCE IN THAT AREAo . MED

CONS FRONTPAGE COVERAGE ATO

=Tc:<.::u~-t--; BRIT! SH QUALITY PRESS GAVE FRONTPAGE COVERAGE TO MR. CARTER'S TRIP =Nc=o~rc~+-; SUNDAY. THE SUNDAY TIMES FRONTPAGED A PHOTO OF THE PRESIDENT AND .:...;:FB=O~-+-::at THE SHAHS OTHER PAPERS GAVE SH1ILAR TREATMENT BUT PLACED MOST =CHR==ON~-+--t EMPHASIS ON MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATIONS. BOM

' -==-'-----+--t MID-EAST EVENTSI "MOVING AT DIZZYING SPEED"

I

~~-+---:.~ CORRESPONDENT STEPHEN BARBER IN TH·E SUNDAY ·,TELEGRAPH SAID THAT --=F~.....__.__, "EVENTS ON THE GROUND· IN THE SHAPE OF NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN EGYPT

AND ISRAEL ARE MOVING AT SUCH DIZZYING SPEED AS TO TIE IN RATHER NEATLY WITH THE'TOUR." REPORTER QUOTED FROM PRE-TOUR BRIEFING BY DR. BRZEZINSKI, SAIDa "THE DRIFT OF CARTER-BREZEZINSKI THINKING

-IN-T-. -----1 CAN BE JUDGED FROM THE FOLLOWING PASSAGE FROM THE POLICY ADVISER'S DATE BRIEFING 1 'l.T SO HAPPENS THAT BY THE END OF' THIS CENTURY, AMONG THE

TOP 12 COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD IN TERMS OF POPULATION AND, PERHAPS OTHER INDICES, THERE WILL NOT BE A SINGLE WESTERN POWER EXCEPT THE UNITED STATES.'"

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Pi3ge~ UNCLASSIFIED

THE SUNDAY TIMES SAID MANY PERSONS ARE WRONG IN FEELING THERE HAS BEEN NO MOVEMENT SINCE THE SADAT-BEGIN CHRISTMAS MEETING. THE PAPER SAID ONE MAIN CHANGE IS THAT SOME ·PERSONS "CAN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MOST OF THEIR LIVES, MEET ~NO TALK TO EACH OTHER AS FELLOW. HUMAN BEINGS ••• " THE PAPER REMINDED READERS THAT PLANS NOW PUT FORWARD ARE "NEGOTIATING POSITIONS, A~D THAT THESE WJLL IMPROVE AS THE BARGAINING PROCEEDS •• oA FULL-SCALE INDEPENDENT PALESTINE, UNDER ANY LEADERSHIP AT PRESENT LIKELY, IS, WHATEVER THEY MAY SAY IN PUBLIC 11 AS UNACCEPTABLE TODAY TO SYRIA, JORDAN 11 LEBANON AN.O EGYPT <NOT TO MENTION THEIR BANKER, SAUDI ARABIA) AS IT WOULD BE TO ' ISRAEL."

"COURAGEOUSLY TACKLING LONG-TERM PROBLEMS"

THE INDEPENDENT LONDON OBSERVER WROTE THAT THE PRESIDENT "IS COURAGEOUSLY TACKLING LOfiG-TER~ PROBLEMS OF AMERICAN POLICY THAT HIS PREDECESSORS IGNORED OR DEFERRED AS POLITICALLY INSOLUBLE OR MERELY CHIPPED AWAY AT ROUND THE EDGES." THE PAPER MENTIO~ED WELFARE AND URBAN RENEWAL AT HOME ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS SUCH AS A NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL loREATY o · .

(NOTEs NO LONDON NEWSPAPERS WlLL PUBLISH JANUARY 2)

@Nc0 TRIP MAJOR FRENCH TOPIC

PRESIDENT CARTER'S TRIP WAS THE MAJOR FOREIGN TOPIC IN FRENCH MEDIA ON SATURDAY o <NO FRENCH PRESS PUBLISHED JANUARY 1 o) SAMPLE HEADLINES a "DRAMATIC DEVELOPMENT; CARTER EXPECTED TO GO TO EGYPT CLE MATIN)"J .. MIDDLE EASTs CARTER OUT'TO RESCUE PEACE Q..E QUOTIOIEN>"a "CARTER'S MOMENT OF EMOTION BEFORE THE MONUMENT

TO THE WARSAW GHETTO <FIGARO)". o

THE VISIT WAS GIVEN F'ULL FACTUAL COVERAGE WITH BOXES ANNOUNCING THAT THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE A CONVERSATION WITH MR. MITTERAND . JANUARY 5.

RICHARD LISCIA IN LE QUOTIDIEN DE PARIS WROTE THAT "THE REAL MAJOR INTERNATIONAL PROBLEM AT THIS TURN-OF-THE-YEAR PERIOD IS N.EITHER POLAND, NOR INDIA ,NOR EVEN IRAN o IT IS THE MIDDLE EAST •• o <THE PRESIDENT> HAS NOT BEEN LOING IN REALIZING THAT 0 IF' HE WANTED TO MAKE HIS TRIP AN EVENT, HE HAD TO INSERT IT INTO A MORE IMMEDIATE 0 MORE THRILLING ISSUE IN THE NEWS." · .

LE MAliN SAID THAT THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO POLAND ""ESPECIALLY RESULTS IN THE GRANTING OF A RELATIVE GOOD CONDUCT CERTIFICATE TO WARSAW lN-THE MATTER OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND IN A TWO-HUNDRED MILLION DOLLAR EXTENSION TO THE THREE HUNDR,ED MILLION DOLLARS WHICH THE u.s. HAD PLANNED TO GIVE TO POLAND. THIS AID CAN ONLY HELP TO STABILIZE THE REGIME. •

<END TAKE ONE> BT

UNCLASSlf~lED

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. u.s. WOULD NEVER INTENTIONALLY START A WAR

WEST BERLIN PAPERS GAVE PROAl NENT COVERAGE TO PRESIDENT'S DEPARTURE FROM WARSAW, CITING HIS DINNER REMARK THAT u.s. WOULD NEVER INTENTIONALLY START A WAR AND HIS EXPCSSSED BE.LIEf THAT SIMILAR HUNGER FOR PEACE WOULD KEEP POLAND AND US~R FRnM STARliN~ ONE. PAPERS ALSO MENTIONED PO:Ll SH CIVIL RIGHTS DEMONSTRATORS' SHOUTS OF "CARTER·, CARTER, SAVE t!S." PRO-SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC SPANDAUER VOLKS· BLATT ALSO CITED GIEREK'S CALLING TALKS CONSTRUCTIVE.

INDEPENDENT DER TA·GESSPlEGEL IN YEAR .. END REVIEW PICKED PRESIDENT CARTER AS FIRST OF THREE MOST OUTSTANDING MEN OF 1977 ALONG WITH SCHMIDT AND SADA I. THE PAPER SA lD "SPEAKING UP FOR HUMAN RIGHTS HAS BEEN CARTER'S MOST IMPRESSIVE INITIATIVE," MARKING HIS "WAY OF THINKING AND HIS MORAL INTEGRITY." PRESIDENT'S INITIATIVE HAS "D WEST OUT OF IDEOLOGICAL DEFENSIVE".AND '"STRENGTHENED SELF· CONFJDENCE OF WESTERN WORLD."

INDE.P'E'NDENT BERLINER MORGENPOST NOTED THE PRESIDENT FULFILLED •MANY. A PROMISE .. AFTER INAUGURATION, BUT SAID "IN SECOND HALF OF YEAR MANY OF HIS INITIATIVES WERE OVERRUN, CORREC.TED OR IGNORED BY DEVELOPMENTS." PAPER DECLARED "HUMAN RIGHTS ARE NO LONGER GIVEN SAME IMPORTANCE AS YEAR AGO." IN FOREIGN POLICY, PAPER SAlD •AMATEUR CARTER LACKS A. PROFESSlONAL OF" KISS! NGER TYPE .. WHO COULD •px N OOWN THE PRESIDENT TO A CLEAR COURSE ... PAPER CHARACTERIZED 1977 'S '"YEAR OF LEARNING" FOR PRESIDENT, CONCLUDING •wE KNOW HE IS lN ~ POSITION TO LEARN QUICKLY." .

@GERMANY")

CELEVISION PICTURE CO·VERAGE OF PRESIDENT ',S TRIP CONTINUED, ALONG '41TH NEWS REPORTS ON- PRESID~ENT SAO-AT'S ItiVITATION TO VISIT EGYPT.-rv COMMENTATOR GUENTER SCHUBERT SUMMED UP THE WARSAW VISIT a ... "I.F THERE WAS NO INCIDENT IT WAS ABOVE ALL DUE TO THE RESOLVE OF" 80TH SlOES NOT TO tN:DANG·ER THE PROCESS OF OETEN:TE •••• DURING THESE l.AST DAYS IN WARSAW THE IDEA. OF DETENTE- SURVIVED At't DANGERS STEMMING FROM IDEOLOGICAL FANATACISM. THIS IS .. PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT JUTCOME OF THIS VISIT.· ' .

NO MAJOR DAILIES .RE PUBLISHED ON SUNDAYS IN WtST GERMANY •

c§AO MEDIA APPLAUDED U.S.-IRAN FRIENDSHIP

• ,0:.-

' .. : •.

IRANIAN MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT WAS EXT.ENSIVE. ARRIVAL CEREMONIES, DINN.ER AND TOASTS AND DEPARTURE ACTI-VITIES WERE BROADCAST LIVE ON IRANIAN TELEVISION. MRS. CARTQJ WAS-. INTERVIEWED FOLLOWING HER VISIT TO THE ~EZA ABBASI MUSEUM~ TAPE OF INTERV.IEW WILL BE TELECAST JANUARY 1 •. COMMENTARY WAS HIGHLY LAUDATORY

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THE ENGLISH-LANGU.AGE TEHRAN JOURNAL ·PUBLISHED A 16-PAGE SUPPLEMENT EMPHASIZIPJG COOPER AT 10 N BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U oS • . THE LEAD EDITORIAL WAS TITLED "A WELCOME VISIT" AND EMPHASIZ£D THAT PRESIDENT•s STOP IN TEHR·AN _SHOWED IRAN"S EMERG.ENCE AS A MAJOR WORLD .POWER.

"AMERICA NEEDED A LEADER~

SATURDAY EVE Nl NG 'S PERSIAN·LANGUAGEO ETTELAAT APPLAUDED THE PRESIDENT • s EFFORTS TO CHANGE THE WORLD•s IMAGE OF AMERICA, SAYING THAT "AMER.ICA NEEDED A LEADER. WHO BELIEVED IN MORAL PRINCIPLES, FREEDOM, PEACE, AND HUMANITY. ON THE BASlS OF THESE NEEDS AMERICA ELECTED JAMES EARL CARTER ••• HIS ELECTION WAS JUSTIFIED. CARTER'S SINCERE SMILE SOON CHANGED THE SOUR FACES TO SMILING AND HOPEFUG ONES."

THE PAPER ADDED THAT "IN RESPECT TO IRAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE INOICATION OF A CONTINUOUS .FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. THE u.s., IN HER RELATIONS WITH IRAN, ALWAYS HAS BEE SINCERE FRIEND."

MOST RIYADH DAILIES HEADLINED DEATH OF KUWAIT RUlER AND RELATED . DEVELOPMENTS. PRESIDENT•s MEETING WITH HUSSEI.N- FEATURED .'IN ONLY ONE NEWSPAPER, OKAZ, WITH PRESIDENT'S STATEME~T THAT U.S •. WOULD NOT IMPOSE SETTLEMENT • -SAUDI RADIO AND DAILIES REPORTED .ASWAN STOP: WITHOUT COMMENT o ,_

/ INCREASING PESSIMISM -ON MIDDLE EAS~ DEVELOPMENTS- IS REFLECTED IN THE SAUDI PRESS. AL-RIYADH SAID "ARABS HAVE NOTHING LEFT TO OFFL" ,

.AND CALLED FOR "INTENSIVE EFFORTS TO REGAIN WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY LOST." AL•MEDINA STATED THERE WAS "NO ALTERNATIVE TO.TOTAL LIBERATION AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF' A PALESTINIAN STATE" AND

1NOTED THAT THE PALESTINIAN STRUGGLE IS: ~.PASSING THROUGH A VERY -DARK AND DELICATE PHASE ••• REQUlRlNG,EFFECTIVE STEPS." ANOTHER ARTICL E I . •

iiN THE SAME NEWSPAPER SAID THAT REGAINING- ARAB LANDS WOULD NOT END THE C.ON.FLICT, WHICH IT SEES AS BEING. ~BETWEEN TWO CULTURES. •• COEXI STENC·E IS IMPOSSIBLE.'" THE PAPER CONCLUDED THAQY'"PART IAL SOLUTIONS WILL LEAVE A GREAT TRAGEDY TO. FUTURE GENERATIONS." .

<END TAKE TWC)) ___ • ·-aT .....

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SOVIET UNION . :· .. ·

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PRAVDA: "CONTRA DI CTO,RY ELEMENTS~.· i. i'' : .· . ':· . (·' ~-: f : . . . :. . .· :\·

AS REPORTED BY TASS SUNDAY, P·R~VJ)A1!:~ NEWS ANALYST SERGEI VISHNEVSKY NOTED "CONTRADICTORY ELEMf,:NTS" ~lN U ~s. FOBE.IGN. POt.ICY o AND LINKED

. THESE TO THE PRESIDE.NT'S TRIP._:;',HE ASSERTEO'.THAT ALTHOUGH WESTERN 'LEADERS ARE "CO·M?ELLED" BY CI RCU MS.TA,NCES. ':TO. A DETENTE COURSE, THEY "EXHIBIT NOW AND Tl!f·EN NO·STALG'IA' FOR ~'.PAX AMERICANA • AND MAKE ATTEMPTS TO R-ECAPTURE LEADERSHIP AND ,TO HOLD BACK, WHEREVER POSSI~LE, THE ADVANCE o:F THE P~OGRESSIVE ,FORCES .• " ·AMONG T.HE "CONTRADICTORY" PURPOSES OF TH~ _'P.RESIQENT'~. ·TRIP, VISH.NEVSKY CITED DISCUSSIONS ON PROB•LEMS OF DETtlNTE, CA.P•I TAtlST ECONOMIC AND ENERGY DIFFICULTIES, "P·OINTLES l.. · · .· · · .• /+

S~;"DISCU.SSlONS'ON 'HUMAN RIGHTS'"· AS WELL AS TALKS ON STRE.NGTHE:NING NATO ·AND : .. DEPLOYING NEUTRON. WEAPONS I~ WESTERN EUROPEo" Uf.ADD.ITIO.N,' :tHE COMMENTAT.OR SAID, THE UNITED STATES IS "TRYING TO .IMPOSE THE .UNACCEPTABLE 'BEGIN PLAN' ON IN'DIVIDUAL ARA·B LEA.DERSo": .PRAVDA~ CONCLUDED THAT "NO MANEUVERS AND INTRIGUES CAN STqP:.IN THI$ AGE THE INVINCIBLE

. MOVEMENT OF THE PEO·PLES FOR NATIONAL LIBERATION •" . (,. . ~· ~ ·. ;-'' SATURDAY TA.SS REPORTED THE B·A NQlJET REMARKS ·;:QF G IE.REK A NO PRES I DENT CARTER·, LEADING OFF WlJ.H GIEREI('S .STATEMENt: TO THE EFFECT THAT. POLISH-AMERICAN COOPERATION SE~YES. MUTUA4 TNTERESTS AN·D INTENSIFIES THE DETENTE PROCESS •. THE REPORT. CITED THE PRESIDENT AS EXPRESSING HIS SATIS:FACTIO.N :ABOUT THE .V,ISIT AND QUOTED HIM

-~~~~~~~y S~~H s:~I~~E ·~otrs~0~N~O:·~~E D~~~i~t~a-~·~{~~~eE~H~~ ~~~O~~R·;~AT TO START WARS." IT ALSO C 1 D ~IS REMARKS O'N THE .:EXPANSION OF' CONSULTATIONS AND COOPERATIO:N s;~·~WEEN.·EA·st'·)ND WEST AND ON U.S.-SOVIET EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE NUCL6AR.;ARM$ ,CO,,.T,ROL o . . .·

~-::---...· : ;j ,"~ .'·,'f .... ': • ~ .·!_'· .• ··,··:·:, •. _

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A NEW AW·ARENESS o·r-HUMAN RIGHf:~ ·:';; • .. ,· ;;, .. r·

:•:,

j:, ; i •: ' , .- I , .. ·~'- ,

tNDEPENDENT-MODERATE .DAILY YO•MlUR~·.RA'N )'i: Y_EAR-E:ND ASSESSMENT OF iUiMAN RIGHTS DIPLOMACY IN ITS ENGLISH-LANGUAGE EDITION DECEMBER 29. rHE PAPER GAVE CR~DIT TO PRESIDENT 'CA~TER .Ji'OR WORLD-WIDE PUBLIC ~WARENESS OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUE~' DESPITE "ANXIETY AN.D ANGER" :NGENDERED INITIALLY BY HUMAN RIGHTS QIP·LO'MA.CY, THE PAPER SAID IN !ETROSPECT, "W·E HAVE TO CONCLUDE .. :THAT 'It NElTHE~ CAUSED GREAT· ~NFUSION NOR THE INTENSIFICAT~ON Of CONFRONTATION." IT ASSERTED rHAT ONE REASO·N FOR THIS WAS'Tt-(E LACK OF':~TOTAL COMMITMENT" IN iPPLICATION O•F THE POLICY, FOR tEXA MPLE ::WI THf.IVESPECT TO LARGE 0 IL-'RODUCING COU•NTRIES. IT STATED'THAT T.HE PFUtSIDE·NT.WAS "NOT REALLY 'IRM IN CONFR()'ti,TtNG •. THE COMMUiN~ST ·COU~TRJ.ES:i ON THE PROBLEM OF HUMAN IGHTS •" NEV~:R.THELESS, Tfi•E PAPE8 .. NOT~p S'-l.GH ·"BENEFICIAL RE~ULTS" .S "THE·RELEASE· ·oF MANY POLITICAL PRISO.NERS IN LATIN AMERfCA,. ~NDONESI'A AND .SOUTH KOREA o" IT, ,GlTED ·:ni~, NOBEL AWARD TO A·MNESTY NTERNATIONAL, THE GROWTH OF DI.SSIDENT .. r,o;~~·~ENTS IN COMMUNIST OUNTRIES, A.ND CHANGES O·F REGIME'/lN J.~~~~·-':~i~,ND PAKISTAN AS INDICATIVE I' A NEW AWARENESS OF HUMAN Rl~HTSc. · . ··· ~~ ,. ! t-" . .

. l . ' . ·, .· . ..~;. .·•

S?age •{p

.. IRAN

SHAH PRAISED CARTER VISIT

RADIO TEHRAN'S DOMESTIC PERSIAN-LANGUAGE SERVICE BROADCAST JANUARY .1. AN AIRPORT QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION WITH AMERICAN AND.IRANIAN REPORTERS WHICH TH~ SHAH HELD FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL PARTY. IN ANSWERS TO ~N AMERICAN CORRESPONDENT'S QUESTION, THE SHAH WAS QUOTED AS SAYING THAT KING HUSSEI~'S WILLINGNESS TO JOIN MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER HE IS GIVEN A MEANINGFUL ROLE.

' THE AMERICAN <CBS) CORRESPONDENT ASKED IF ,:THE SHAH "PERSUADED" KING HUSSEIN TO JOIN THE PEACE-TALKS. THE SHAH REPLIED: . "I WILL PERSUADE HIM TO JOIN THE PEACE TALKS IF HE IS GIVEN SOME . RESPONSIBILITY •.•• RESPONSIBILITY TO FULFILL THE~ROLE OF HIS COUNTRY~S REPRESENTATIVE. ·I .ALLUDE to UN "RESOLUtiONS IN THIS CONNECTION SO THAT THEY CAN BECOM~ A REALITY."

.. 4-:·--·· . •

AS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL VISIT, THE SHAH WAS QUOTED AS SAYING 'I AM REALLY SAtiSFIED, JUST AS I WAS SATISFIED WllH MY~ VISIT TO THE UN.ITED STATES. I THINK THAT A VERY FIRtiJ. RELATI,ONSHIP HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE IWO COUNTRIES./ THIS IS AN OLD TRADITION IN THE TWO COUNTRIES'. ~ELATIO~S._ IN ADDITidN TO T~E lWO COUNTRIES'.· RELATIONS AND THE RELATIONSHIP B'ETWEEN THEI.R LEADERS, WE ALSO HAVE AGREEMENTS; WE HAVE AkWAYS BEEN IN AGREEMENT AKD RARELY IN DISAGREEMENT." ... . .

.·~ .

..

. ;

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. . . . -..... '' .· · ... ,· ·'

.. \ .

itG RET.··

VIJ LH0.371 00 RUEHLF DE RU~HC J319 3541956 Z~~y . S2SSS ZZH ZZY i _ . /_ .. · 0 30t944Z DEC 77 ZFF4 .../ FT: SE~ST ATF. l.iff\SHDC TO RUEHLF /IJ8DEL SECRETARY Ir1MEQ I ATE 6223 . R!J?.HL~J/Ai·iE:r•lSASSY 'fEHR1)N It1f1EDIATE 1451 PIJ<:;~·l:\G/AM!:~lS!\SSY Ai·lMAN IMi1~DIAT~ 0813 PUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE 9473 RUZAD\v\~r /;vHITF. HOUSE Ir1MEDIATE Bt S E 0 RET STATE 310319 TOSEC 130046

NOD IS

• I

WARSAW FOR SECRETARY, BRZEZINSKI AND ATHERTON

FOLLO'<J!NG REPEAT TEL AVIV 11330 ACT ION STATE DEC 30.

QUOTt SECRET TEL AVIV 11300

NOD IS

. S. 0. 1165 2: XG DS- l r:ss: PGOV IS IR JO EG US SUBJ: DAYAN'S MEFTING WITH THE SHAH

t. DAYAN GAVE ME THIS t10RNING. DECEMBER 30, A BRIEF -PUNDO'lln ON HIS SEGRF.T MEETING ~HTH THE SHAH IN TEHRAN DEG 27 •

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2~ DAYAN SAID THE SHAH WAS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF BEGIN'S PfWPOSALS AND OF THE WHOLE SADAT•INITIATED NE:GOTIATING · PROCESS. THE SHAH RELIEVES IT IS IMPORTANT FOR HUSSEIN TO GET INTO THE NEGOTIATIONS SOON AND WOULD TRY 10 WORK ON HIM IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER, DAYAN REMAINS 1/?.RY DOUBTFUL THAT HUSSEIN WOULD BE PERSUADED IN THE NEAR FUTURE TO DO SO.

3. DAYAN SAID THAT tHE SHAH HAD TALKED TO HIM AT LE.NGTH ABOUT THE THREAT POSED BY INCRE:ASING SOVIET ARMS SHIP­r~EflTS TO IRAQ AND TO OTHER RADICAL ARAB STATES. THE SHAH SAID THAT THE SOVIETS HAVE ASSURED IRAQ THAT THE KURDS tHLL NOT MAKE ANY TROUBLE FOR THEM IF IRAQ AND SYRIA TAKE MILITARY ACTIONS AGAINST ISRAEL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. DAYAN CLAIMED THAT THE SHAH vJAS MUCH MORE . WORRIED A80UT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOVIET INSPIRED tHL lTARY MOVES AGAINST ISRAEL HI THE' NEAR FUTURE THAN H~ tJAS. THE SHAH WAS LOOKING AT THE \mOLE EVOLVING SITUATION AS HAVING A GOOD DEAL MORE OF A SOVIET THREAT DIMENSION IN IT THAN HAD BEEN DAYAN'S VIEW. HE SAID THE SHAH WAS VERY GLOOMY. HE HAD STRESSED THE SIGNIFICAtWE OF THE VISIT BY THE SOVIET DEFENSE

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MINISTER RECENTLY TO LIBYA, SOVIET ARMS SHIPMENTS AND ~:UPPORT OF OTHERS OF THE HADICAL ARAB STATES,. AND SO -t8 r:·r n e· FORTH -- AND ltftD INTERSPERSED HIS RE!·1ARJ<S HITH CO~H1ENTS e ~ 1'\ 1 -Ci.~ubo~~~ ~~fH~~G w~~ ~~~M.s¥~~~c~~6~,i~G cg~~5~~:0r~~D - ;Z -SHAH TOLD DAYAN THAT HE HAD AN OUTSTANDING INVITATlON. TO GO TO EGYPT, AND HE WAS SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING GOING SOON HIMSELF TO SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT AND JORDAN TO TRY TO POLSTER THE RESOLVE OF THE MODERATE LEADERSHIP IN THOSE COUNTRIES TO MOVE RAPIDLY IN THE DIRECTION OF P~ACE WITH ISRAEL. THE SHAH SAID, ACCORDING TO DAYAN, THAT '.•JH ILE HS DID NOT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A SEPARAtE EGYPT IAN-ISRAELI PEACE TREATY, HE ~JOULD SUPPORT IT AS A NECSSSARY Ft-~LL-BACK IN VIE'1/ OF THE GROHING SOVIET THREAT, mJLESS THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE COULD BE RESOLVED WITH JORDAN'S Pf1RT ICIPATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. DAYAN SAID HE 111AS SURPRIS~D THE SHAH NEV£R MENTIONED JZRUSALEM IN THIS CONVERSAtiON~ BUT THAT HE INSISTED REPEATEDLY THAT THE UEST BANI< PROBLEM HAD TO BE SETTLED IN A UAY WHICH 1:10 ULD PROVIDE A F Im1 LINK TO JORDAN. THE SHAH HAD B?.EN RELATIVELY LITTLE INTERESTED IN DAYAN'S EXPOSITION TO HIM OF THE D~T AILS OF' THE BEG IN PROPOSAL. HE ~/AS I PREOCCUPIED RATHER WITH THE BROADER STRATEGIC PROBLEM OF" THE SOVIET ''OF"F'ENSIVE VIA THE RADICAL ARABS."

4. I SUGGEST THIS MESSAGE BE REPEATED TO TEHRAN FOR AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN, TO WARSAW FOR THE SECRETARY, ~RZ~ZINSKI, AND ATHERTON, TO AMMAN FOR AMBASSADOR PICl~ER!NG AND TO CAIRO FOR AMBASSADOR EILTS. LEWIS UNQUOTE CHRISTOPHER BT

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INfO:

JX)NFIDENTIAb AMB j oc~~-----l

VV LF0280 00 RUEHLF DE RUEHC #0566 3542\212 Z NY CCCCC ZZH \ 0 302200Z DEC 77 ZFf4 FM SECSTATE WASHDC I

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TO USDEL SECRETARY IMMEDIATE 6231

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C 0 N F I D E N T I\A L STATE 310566 TOSEC 130051

FOR ATHERTON I FOL RPT AMMAN 9753 ACTION SECSTATE JIDDA TEL AVIV JERUSALEM 29 DEC 77

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INFO BE !RUT CAIRO. DA.MA SCUS ,._:C:;:J:p.~!R~· ·--I-:-~··-·""­QUOTE ~R~F--~r----­

KRAKOW A L AMMAN 9753 .. ; POZJ-1AN C 0 N F I D E N T/I

E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: PGOV, JO, IS, SUBJECT: BEGIN PLAN

EG, Xr ,; . t-.o.-..1--~/(/

-JORDANIAN REACTION

REF: FBIS JN 282125Y

1. REFTEL CONTAINS TEXT Or JORDANIAN GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCtMENT ' OF CABINET DECISION WHICH CONSIDERED BEGIN PLAN. NO ONE WILL BE SURPRISED TO LEARN THAT JORDANIANS ARE NEGATIVE. ONE INTERESTING POINT IS PHRASE IN FINAL PARAGRAP~ INDICATING THAT GOJ tHLL NOT COOPERATE IN IMPLEMENTING SUCH A SETTLEMENT. WE BELIEVE THIS IS IN REPLY TO BEGIN'S SIGNALS OF INTEREST IN HAVING JORDAN JOIN THE NEGOTIATING EFFORT AND AS WELL TO PRESS COMMENTS FROM EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES TO THE -SAME EF"F"ECT.

'

2. THE BEGIN PLAN AS PRESENTED TO THE JORDANIANS, VIA THE ISRAELI ?RIME MINISTER'S SPEECH IN THE KNESSET OF DECEMBER 27 9 WAS

·NOT THE BEST FORUM OR CONTEXT IN tmiCH TO HAVE IT VIEWED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AMMAN. CLEARLY OUR IMPRESSION HERE ~.lAS THAT SPEECH WAS LOADED WITH STATEMENTS TO RESPOND TO OR DEBATE BEGIN'S DOMESTIC CRITICS AND THUS REPRESENTED A PRESENTATION Or THE PLAN FOR THE ARABS AT ITS WORST. COURT CHIEF SHARAF ASSURED US

·. EVENING OF DECEM3ER 28 THAT JORD~.N HAD NOT RECEIVED A BRIEFING ON THE SADAT~DEGIN MEETINGS FROM THE EGYPTIANS.

3~ FOR THE JORDANIANS, THE KEY ELEMENT IN ANY FUTURE DECISION ON JOINING IN·ANY NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE THE DEGREE TO WHICH THEY FIND THAT·THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF RECOVERING TERRITORY ON THE WEST BANKe THEY SEEM ALSO TO HAVE RECOGNIZED THAT. INTER- ARAB NEURALGIA OVER A NY ROLE FOR THEM t.JILL BE HIGH, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE PLO AND THE SYRIANS AND HAVE THUS INSISTED THAT ANY ROLE THEY PLAY WlLL HAVE TO END IN SELF­DETERMINATION-FOR THE PALESTINIANSo WE BELIEVE THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF FLEXIBILITY IN THE JORDANIAN'S CONCEPTION OF WHAT WOULD CONSTITUTE SELF DETERMINATION, BUT IT IS A CONVENIENT SHtELD TO USE TO DEFEND THEMSELVES FROM EXPECTED ARAB ATTACK SHO~LD THEY LATER MOVE INTO A NEGOTIATING ROLE.

4o THE BEGIN PLAN FOR THE MOMENT WILL ALSO HELP THE JORDANIANS IN THEIR RECENTLY STRAINED RELATIONS:WITH SYRIANS. INDEED, JORDAN.." S DENUNCIATION OF THE PROPOSALS COMES RIGHT AFTER A TRIP TO DAMASCUS BY THE JORDANIAN 'PRIME MINISTER AND COURT CHIEF AND COULD lp!EU Hf\\lE gp·r,1 Ck\1 rill ATED TO RJ:;"ASSURE SYRIA THAT JORDAN WAS NOT TAKING A· PLUNGE OFF THE. DEEP END NOW WITH THE EGYPTtANS.

-uNQUOTE CHRISTOPHER BT #0566

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t. tHE EXCHANGE MARKETS HAVE BEEN VERY DISORDERLY TODAYt JANUARY ~o AND ~HE bOLLAR.HAS DEPRECIATED SHARPLY AGAI·NST THE OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES FOLlOWING S~VERAL DAYS OF-PERSISTENT

. DECL I NEo DURING THE COURSJf. 'OF THR DAY rs TH!1. SWISS FRANC ROSE .... ,.;;,ay NEARJ.. Y 4 PERCENT AGA. I NST THF; DOLLiHl, TK~iZ: ?0 UND STERl.lNG

AND Ft:!ENCH FRANC BY NEARLY 2 1/2 PERCE;.~T t AND. THE DM BY Al..NOST 2 ?ERO~:.N'I'o MARXET .1\CTIVITY WAS BELOV! N.OP.t-lf~L AND THERE WERE . SPECIAL ,ACTORS OPERAtiNG SUCH A~ THE FACT THIS WAS THE FIRST l'RAD! NG DAY FOLL0~1I NG. A LONG HOL.JDAY ?Err I 0.0 o NONETHEL,ESS t tXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS OF THESE MAGNITUDES ARE A CA~! OF CONSIDERABLE. CONCERN• AND I AM Gl!J!TE IVOBRIZO ABOUT THEM;; THr.;y .WILL BE THE SUBJECT OF A GREAT DEAL OF ATTENTION BY THE EURPOEAN PRESS AND THE OF'FI C I ALS YOU W !Ll.. IH: MEETING •

. ·' .

2• THE TREASURY/BUNDESBANX SWAP THAT TUNY SOLOMON BRIEFED YOU ON OVER THE WEEKEND HAS BEEN APPROVED BY THE BU~CESBANK BUT, AT THFIR ~EQ~ESTt V!LL NOT EE AN~OUNCED U~TfL THURSDAY ~OfiNtNG CWASHINGTON TIME) AT THE EARLIESTo YOUR ECONOM!C ADVISORS ARt CONSULTING ON THE SITUATION AND OPTIONS. I WILL OIVt YOU A FURTHER R[PORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS W!THIN 24 TO 48 HOURS~ . .

. ~~ MEAN\111-HL.Ee IN ANY DISCUSSIONS Wl!H GISCAHP AND OTHER OF.J"'CIAL.S ABOUT THIS SITUATIONt I WOULD SUGGEST YOU TAKE 1Hl FOLLOWlNU APPROACH I

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IN RESPONSE TO YOUR CABLE AND YOUR REQUEST FOR MY ASSESSMENT OF A POSSIBLE MEETING WITH SADAT, I WOULD OFFER THESE OBSERVATIONS:

1. BY THE TIME YOU COMPLETE THE TRIP TO SAUDI ARABIA, YOU WILL HAVE MET IN THE LAST MONTH WITH LEADERS 0~ ALL THE PRINCIPALS IN THE MIDDLE EAST tHAT HAVE BEEN WILLING TO MEET WITH YOU - BEGIN IN WASHI~GTON, THE SHAH IN WASHINGTON AND IRAN, KING HUSSEIN IN IRAN AND KING KHALID IN SAUDI ARABIA - EXCEPT FOR SADAT, THE MAN WHO IS PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR OPENING THINGS--UP.

2. IT HAS BEEN OVER SIX MONTHS SI~CE YOU MET PERSONALLY WITH SADAT. AS WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN, THERE WILL LIKELY BE. SOME ROUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR BOTH SADAT AND BEGIN. I BELIEVE THAT IT WOULD BE GOOD TO REESTABLISH AND ENHANCE YOUR PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP WITH HIM. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT CAN ONLY BE DONE IN A FACE-TO-FACE MEETING. I DON'T KNOW WHEN CIRCUMSTANCES WILL PERMIT YOU TO SEE SADAT AGAIN AND WOULD STRONGLY. RECOMMEND· THAT YOU TAKE ADVANTAGE OF YOUR PRESENCE IN THE AREA TO VISIT HIM.

3. AS RELATES TO THE LOCATION OF THIS MEETING, I WOULD THINK THAT IT HOULD BE MUCH BETTER FOR YOU TO GO TO HIM THAN ASX THAT HE. MEET YOU IN A THIRD COUNTRY. YOUR TRIP TO EGYPT WOULD COME AT A TIME WHEN THERE IS A GROWING REALIZATION AMONG THE PEOPLE-IN THIS COUNTRY AND PROBABLY IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT THE PROBLEMS FACING BOTH BEGlil A~iD St~DAT ARE REAL AND DO NCT LEND THEMSELVES TO EASY SOLUTIONS. YOtiR ALT~RING YOUR TRIP TO VISIT SADAT. :JOULD UNDOUBTEDLY HELP HIM IN EGYPT AND THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD.

4. AS RELATES TO AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION, I BELIEVE THAT THE Af1ER·ICAN P'ZOPLE SEE A i11UTUI-).LITY OF INTERESTS THAT ~J0\11 EXISTS BETWEEN S~DAT AND BEGIN. GIVEN BEGIN'S RECENT VISIT

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5. ANOTHER OBSERVATION I WOULD MAKE IS THAT THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NEWS COVERAGE IN THE. U.S. THE LEAD ON MOST OF THE NETWORKS TONIGHT WAS FOCUSED ON WHAT YOU SAID AND DID IN POLAND THAT RELATED TO THE MIDDLE EAST. SO, FOR BETTER OR WORSE, YOUR TRIP HAS TAKEN ON A MIDDLE EASTERN DIMENSION THAT COULD BE REINFORCED BY A STOP-OFF IN EGYPT. 0430

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AS YOU THIN:K ABOUT HO'w THE CROWN 'OF ST. 'S1EPHEN WILL BE RETUR~ED, I HOPE YOU WOULD CONSIDER WETHER IT. IS Wl.S'E TO SEND ROSALYN ALONG WITH CY. I K~O~ SHE WOULD DO A GOOD JOB BUT IT WOULD ALSO MAKE IT EASIER FOR CRITICS TO ATTACK YOU PERSONALLY. 0~ THIS ISSUE. I BELIEVE THAT CY WOULD GIVE THE RETUR~ APPROPRIATE STATURE AND DIGNITY WITHOUT OPENI~G UP ADDITIONA,L OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUR CRITICS. 0099

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MEMORANDUM FOR: THE PRES;IDENT' 'F . Cyrus v:~ce cJ FROM:

SUBJECT: Your Meeting with King H~ssein in Tehran

Your Objective

Your overall obj.ective in meeting with Hussein in Tehran will be to discuss with him when and on what terms Jordan should join Egypt and Israel_in their talks on the Palestinian question. Begin and Dayan have told us that they want Jordan to join the talks. Presumably Sadat do.es, too, though we do not yet know Sadat's· thinking on the precise circumstances and timing of Jordan's coming in.

The West Bank/Gaza problem will be the major issue con­fronting the Egyptians and the Israelis in their upcoming round of negotiations. Sooner or later, Jordan's presence at these ne.gotiations will be necessa-ry if a satisfactory solution is to be worked out, since only through linkage of the West Bank and Gaza with Jordan can Israel be assured that these areas will not become an independent state.

Hussein has already been thinking about when and how he might join the talks. He will stress the risks that this step will involve for him and the need to assure an outcome that a majority of Arabs would find just, i.e., ultimate self-determination and separation of the West Bank and Gaza from Israel. He will want to share these concerns with you and_get your views on the role that Jordan should play. The· Tehran meeting will give you the opportunity to help him t_hink the problem through and chart his course over the next few weeks.

Background

The Egyptian-Israeli negotiations put Hussein squarely on the horns of a dilemma. Basically he wants to join these talks, to play what he considers his rig.htful role and to g.et back the West Bank (he would take Gaza, too).

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But he fears the consequences of the break with Syria that this would involve, and he is reluctant to seem to be going against the December 1974 Rabat Arab Summit I:)ecision which recognized the PLO as the sole representative of the Palestinians. Hussein has vivid memories of the difficult times he went through in the. early 1970s when Jordan was first i.nvaded by Syria and then boycotted and incessantly attacked over the airwaves and in the press by Syria and Iraq •. It is very unlikely that he would have to face another Syrian invasion, but he knows that Syria and Iraq canmake

.life unpleasant for him without resorting to such extreme measures.

Hussein made clear in our meeting in Amman earlier this month that while he would face many difficulties in doing so, he would be willing to negotiate for the West Bank and Gaza under certain circumstances. He said he would. insist on .self-determination for the area; this would be necessary to give legitimacy to a renewal of ties with Jordan. And he says he would negotiate only if he could get back the entire territory, including Jerusalem. Clearly Hussein hopes to drive a hard bargain, for he will need to be able to show the Saudis and the Palestinians that he has gotten a good price for stepping into the negotiations'. He may believe that the Israelis and the Egyptians need him more than he needs them. But, on the other hand, Hussein feels·that Sadat's ·failure would be a disaster for the Arab moderates. He recognizes that it is in his inter.est tp help Sadat succeed.

The revised plan that Begin presented to Sadat on December 25 contains a provision for a Jordanian role i;n the proposed self-rule regime for the, West Bank/Gaza. Hussein does not regard the Israeli proposal as a basis for him to join the negotiations, but he will appreciate that it can with modifications provide a basis for his participation. For their part, the Israelis realize that they will. need Jordan if they are to be able to work out a solution to the West Bank/Gaza problem that would be satisfactory to Sadat. Israel will have a diffic;:ult enough time deciding to divest itself ultimately of the West Bank and Gaza; only if links between these areas and Jordan can be worked out will it be able to do so. Preparing the way for such an arrangement is likely :to be our m'1ljor task in the period ahead. · ·

-. SECRE'f

·, ·'1

Strategy With Hussein

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You will have only about an hour with Hussein and will thus not be able to g.o into g.reat detail. He will have word from Sadat on the December 25 meeting but what Sadat tells him may not be complete and, in any case, he will want our assessment of where things stand and what his next steps should be. Hussein will also want to share with you his concern over the difficulties he anticipates from Syria and the rejectionists if he does join the negotiations, and

·to have your assurance that we will support him. It will be particularly important to him to know that we understand the risks he will be taking and that he can count on our backing.

The following are points that you will want to cover in your talk with Hussein:

First of all, you will want to share with Hussein our appreciation of the December 25 Sadat-Begin talks and to stress that despite the differences that surfaced in that meeting we think the way is open for agreement. What is needed is time for the parties to negotiate and to make the necessary adjustments in their positions.

-- You will want to express understanding for the course Hussein has followed up to now. We have many times told him that·he: should keep his lines open to Syria and use his influence with Assad to help bring Syria into the negotiation~. As he knows, we are doing the same.

-- But a time will come - perhaps within the next few weeks - when it will be important for Jordan to assume a role in the negotiations. We have always fe.lt that the future of the West Bank lies in some form of union with Jordan.; we have repeatedly stated that we do not believe that an independent West Bank state is desirable. ·

We recognize that the Begin proposal for the West Bank and Gaza would not be viewed by Hussein as an acceptable basis for Jordan's joining the negotiations. The problem is how to bring about changes in this proposal and pave the way·for Jordan's entry into the negotiations.

SECRET

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-- What sort of arrangement would Hussein envisage in regard to Jordan's joining the negotiations? Would Jordan be willing, for example, to join with Egypt and Israel in a transitional regime for the West Bank and Ga,za pend,ing some form·of self-determination?

The Israelis and Egyptians have told us that they favor Jordanian participation in the talks. Hussein might want to use his private channels to discuss this directly with Sadat and the Israelis; alternatively, we would be happy to pass messages for them. But firs·t we think Hussein should consult with Sadat. It will be important for Hussein to have Sadat's views on how and when he should join in the talks. (Hussein may take a harder line with the Israelis than Sadat would; prior coordination between the two could help in moderating Hussein's stance.)

-- Finally, you should make clear that we understand the risks that Hussein will run in joining the negotiations and assure him that we will support him. He may ask for assurance that we will expedite shipment of certain items of military equipment - his present concern is artillery -and that we will continue our supporting assistance and our participation in Jordan's economic development programs at least at their current levels.

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