tropical cyclone operations & research mary m. glackin deputy under secretary for oceans &...

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Tropical Cyclone Operatio ns & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008 Priorities for the Future

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Track and Intensity forecasts  48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year Storm Surge Rainfall / Flooding Storm Structure Sea State Observations Success and Challenges Collaborative Partnerships Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 3 UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction) Storm Surge/Flooding

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Page 1: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone

Operations&

ResearchMary M. Glackin

Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)

March 3, 2008

Priorities for the Future

Page 2: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

OutlineSuccesses and Challenges

Collaborative Partnerships are vital Data Collection Modeling Transition of Research to Operations

Outreach and Education

Community Hazard Resiliency

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 2

Page 3: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Track and Intensity forecasts 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average

since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year

Storm Surge

Rainfall / Flooding

Storm Structure

Sea State

Observations

Success and ChallengesCollaborative Partnerships

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 3UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction)

Storm Surge/Flooding

Page 4: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Collaborative Partnerships

Data CollectionEntire observations system depends on partnerships

Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR’s) being transitioned from research to operations

UAS partnerships (NASA, DOE)

Ocean Surface Vector Winds

In Situ Observations

COSMIC

Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 4

SFMR or “SMURF”

Altair

Page 5: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Collaborative Partnerships

Modeling and Prediction

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 5

Hurricane Katrina HWRF Model—8/2005

Navy COAMPS Model of Significant Wave Heights in Western Pacific

GFDL Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere

Model

HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane

Prediction System Operational in 2007; GFDL will run in

parallel

Navy GFDN & COAMPS Tropical Cyclone Systems

Multi-Model Ensembles /Model Consensus

Important to tropical cyclone forecast and warning operations

NUOPC

Page 6: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Collaborative Partnerships

Transition of Research to OperationsJoint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)

Modeling NCEP / EMC Developmental Testbed Center Navy/FNMOC

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 6

Joint Hurricane Testbed Center

Page 7: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 7

Map of StormReady Communities

Outreach and Education

StormReady

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Multi-Agency collaboration

including Department of Education Department of Homeland

Security Department of Commerce/NOAA

Work with FEMA, States and Local Agencies, NGOs, Academia, Private Companies

Media

Hurricane Liaison Team

Seasonal Forecasts and PreparednessMap of NWR Coverage

Page 8: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Collaborative Partnerships

Hazard Resiliency For Coastal Communities

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 8

“High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure” National Science Board report

Figure: County Population Change

(1970 – 2000) in 1000’s of people

Red: coastal counties Green: non-coastal

counties

Impact of Tropical Systems on Ecosystems

Partnership needed to meet resource demands

Page 9: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 10

Questions?

Page 10: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone

Operations&

ResearchMary M. Glackin

Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)

March 3, 2008

Priorities for the Future

Page 11: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 12

Collaborative Partnerships

Response

Hurricane Liaison Team

Media Pool

HLT (FEMA/NOAA) discussing tidal surge heights for Hurricane Lili (2002)NHC Meteorologist Updating HLT

Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program

Page 12: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 13

Collaborative Partnerships

Recovery

Land falling tropical cyclones will occur again

Assistance from Federal Agencies will be critical to recovery efforts

Status of Transportation-related Recovery

Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program

Page 13: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 14

The Path AheadWhat have we learned?

Multiple Hurricane Proposals1. Partnerships and coordination 2. Operational requirements 3. Advancements in operational

numerical weather prediction models

4. Advanced observations and data assimilation

5. An efficient transfer of research to operations plan

6. Critical Mass is crucialPath and Intensity Track of Hurricane Katrina

(2005)

Page 14: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 15

The Path AheadInteragency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

Excellent Plan Comprehensive Strategy Key Areas Relevant R&D

Page 15: Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research Mary M. Glackin Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 16

Collaborative Partnerships

Global Earth Observation System of Systems

A distributed system of systems Improves coordination of

strategies and observation systems

Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks

Identifies gaps in our global capacity

Facilitates exchange of data and information

Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues