INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION

Tropical Timber Market Trends

Overview

• Export trends

• Import trends

• SPWP trade trends

• Current issues

EXPORT TRENDS – PRIMARY TROPICAL

Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vol

ume

(100

0 m

3 - R

WE

)

TROPICAL ROUNDWOOD EXPORT TRENDS

Malaysia

Papua New Guinea

Gabon

Indonesia0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

INDONESIA / CHINA LOG TRADE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 )

Indonesia Exports - China Indonesia Exports - Hong Kong China Imports

MALAYSIA / CHINA LOG TRADE

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 )

Malaysia Exports - China Malaysia Exports - Hong Kong China Imports

TROPICAL LOG FOB PRICE TRENDS

80

100

120

140

160

180

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2005 2006

Pric

e In

dex

(Jan

199

7=10

0)

Meranti SQ & Up Keruing SQ & Up African Maho gany LM-C

Wawa/Obeche/Ayo us LM-C Sape le LM-C Iro ko LM-C

EXCHANGE RATES VS. THE US DOLLAR

Euro

British Pound

Yen

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

Jan-

04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep-

04

Nov

-04

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05

Nov

-05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Exch

ange

Rat

e In

dex

(Jan

200

4 =

100)

CAMEROON LOG PRICE TREND

Sapelli/Sapele (Entandrophragma cylindricum) 80 cm plusUK Market

200

250

300

350

400

12/03 2/04 4/04 6/04 8/04 10/0412/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/0512/05 2/06 4/06 6/06 8/06

US dollar

Euro

TROPICAL SAWNWOOD EXPORT TRENDS

Malaysia

Thailand

Brazil

Indonesia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

INDONESIA / CHINA SAWNWOOD TRADE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 )

Indonesia Exports - China Indonesia Exports - Hong KongChina Imports Hong-Kong Imports

MALAYSIA / CHINA SAWNWOOD TRADE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vol

ume

(100

0 m

3 )

Malaysia Exports - China Malaysia Exports - Hong KongChina Imports Hong-Kong Imports

TROPICAL SAWNWOOD FOB PRICE TRENDS

100

110

120

130

140

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2005 2006

Pric

e In

dex

(Jan

199

7=10

0)

Meranti Jatoba/Courbaril Sapele Iroko Khaya

TROPICAL PLYWOOD EXPORT TRENDS

Indonesia (COMTRADE)

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 )

Malaysia Indonesia

DATA DISCREPANCY BETWEEN SOURCESINDONESIA TROPICAL EXPORTS

45247

71789

4009

3127

6

35

1

1

108

7347

85

85

2

63

0

0

2004***

282696807880699202GTA (adjusted)

5416910106694970168254GTA

221509255216003COM

3411394644004686JQ

Ply

2148GTA (adjusted)

1322031551307GTA

1445COM

1445JQ

Veneer

351205145GTA (adjusted)

9882716410354329269GTA

N/A266475217COM

14266476225JQ

Sawn

0932GTA (adjusted)

134317462871GTA

N/A0634COM

01635JQ

Logs

2005***2003**2002*2001*

*(source: JQ04) **(source: JQ05) *** (source: JQ06) Partial data

ITTO MEMBERS WITH NO 2004 DATA IN COMTRADE AS OF SEPTEMBER 2006

NepalHondurasSurinameTrinidad & Tobago

MyanmarPNGVanuatu

CARCongo, Dem.Rep. of

Congo, Rep. ofCôte d’IvoireLiberiaNigeria

CONSUMERSLATIN AMERICA

ASIAPACIFIC

AFRICA

TROPICAL PLYWOOD EXPORT TRENDS

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 )

Brazil China

TROPICAL PLYWOOD FOB PRICE TRENDS

75

85

95

105

115

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2005 2006

Pric

e In

dex

(Jan

199

7=10

0)

Indonesian 2.7mm Indonesian 6mm Brazilian Virola 5.2mmBrazilian Pine 9mm Malaysian 2.7mm Malaysian 9mm

GDP, YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGECONSUMER COUNTRIES

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*

U.S.A. Euro Area Japan China

MAJOR IMPORTER TRENDS - PRIMARY TROPICAL

China

EU

Japan

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Volu

me

(100

0 m

3 - R

WE)

JAPAN HOUSING STARTS AND PROJECTIONS (*)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1956

-1960

1961

-1965

1966

-1970

1971

-1975

1976

-1980

1981

-1985

1986

-1990

1991

-1995

1996

-2000

2001

-2005

2006

-2010

*20

11-20

15*

2016

-2020

*

Uni

ts (a

nnua

l ave

rage

)

GDP, YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGEPRODUCER COUNTRIES

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007*

Latin America Africa Asia Pacific

PRODUCER TROPICAL TIMBER IMPORTS

Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Vol

ume

(100

0 m

3 - RW

E)

ITTO CONSUMER IMPORTS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Valu

e (B

illio

n US

D)

Secondary

Primary

SPWP Exports

• 4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand) account for > 80% tropical exports

• same countries account for > 90% of $5 billion exports of tropical pulp, paper, reconstituted panels

• most of this $15 billion + export industrybased on plantations, incl. non-tropical conifers in Brazil

CURRENT ISSUES

• shift to plantations

• ecosystem services, carbon, etc.

• market access (certification, legality, PPPs, subsidies, etc.)

• new ITTA

THANK YOU

www.itto.or.jp