truetrends
TRANSCRIPT
June 16th, 2010
by
Automotive intelligence covering new car prices, best car deals and more.
The Truth Will PrevailThe TrueTrends monthly report includes TrueCar’s unique Price Flex Score, identifying new cars with the most negotiating room, as well as best deals by Greatest Percentage below MSRP, Total Incentives, Greatest Price Drops and Days in Inventory. Highlights included:
• The Greatest Discount section features makes and models that offer the highest discounts on 2010 and 2011 models.
• Model year 2010 domestic makes including Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Chrysler, and Lincoln offer the biggest discounts. • Foreign automakers including Toyota, Honda, Kia, and BMW are offering the biggest discounts on 2011 makes.
• Wednesday, June 30th will be the day consumers can expect the best buys for the month, with a projected 9.05% discount from MSRP. In addition, the first half of July will see steady discounts over 7% with the 4th of July holiday providing discounts over 7.5%.
• BMW is leading the way in sales of 2011 models, with 47.7% of their month’s sales coming on 2011 models. Most of BMW’s offerings are available in 2011 models, including the 3, 5 and 7 Series, M3, X5, X6 and Z4.
• Convertibles, wagons and coupes are where the best potential inventory-based discounts will be seen. On average, convertibles are staying in inventory for 65 days, while wagons and coupes are on-lot for 62 days. Meanwhile, SUVs continue to move off the lots quickly, with an average inventory stay of 34 days.
• The Hyundai Sonata is a potential steal, remaining in inventory at an average of 166 days. However, it will be tough finding a GMC Terrain, which has an average stay of 13 days.
• In this edition we’ve added a new section highlighting gender differences in female registrations. This new section displays the nine vehicles with the highest percentage of female registrations along with the pricing and discount information. All brands have been ranked in order by the percentage of female registrations and the percent discount possible for that make.
• The brand with the highest percentage of female registrations was Kia (45.8%), followed by Suzuki (44.2%) and Mini (43.9%). There were ten total makes with a female percentage over 42%, including Subaru, Hyundai and Volvo, which are all brands known for safety and/or value.
• These TrueTrends findings will provide consumers with the insights necessary to be better prepared before purchasing their vehicle.
Score
TrueCar Price Flex Score
1
Least Flexible 2010 Models
ModelMake Score
Most Flexible 2010 Models
ModelMake
Least and Most Flexible 2010 Vehicles ( by Body Type )
Least Flexible ModelBody Type Most Flexible Model
What is the TrueCar Price Flex Score?
The TrueCar Price Flex Score measures the elasticity of transaction price by model. The Price Flex Score calcula-tion dynamically incorporates the factors that affect price variance including the model’s transaction price range, current inventory and sales data. A vehicle experiencing extremely low inventory and a small range of transaction prices will have a low Price Flex Score. Don’t expect much of a discount from the TrueCar average transaction price on a vehicle with a low Price Flex Score. If a vehicle has a high Price Flex Score, however, you have the potential to strike
a deal significantly below (or above, if you’re not careful!) the TrueCar average transaction price. Here are the 2010 models with the highest and the lowest Price Flex Scores. We also show the models with the highest and lowest Price Flex Score within each vehicle category. The scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 corresponds to the lowest Price Flex Score and indicates a very small -if any- negotiation power. A score of 100 indicates the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
Audi
Ford
GMC
Chevrolet
Mercury
Ford
Infiniti
Acura
Mazda
Lincoln
Audi A5 (Score: 1)
Audi R8 (Score: 1)
Ford Explorer Sport Trac (Score: 15)
Lincoln Town Car (Score: 10)
Ford Expedition EL (Score: 2)
Toyota Sienna (Score: 19)
Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen (Score: 34)
Convertible
Coupe
Pickup
Sedan
Sport Utility
Van
Wagon
Mitsubishi Eclipse (Score: 99)
Volvo C30 (Score: 90)
Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck (Score:94)
Honda Insight (Score: 100)
Jeep Liberty (Score: 97)
Volkswagen Routan (Score: 95)
Hyundai Elantra Touring (Score: 99)
Honda
Hyundai
Mitsubishi
Infiniti
Mazda
Audi
Jeep
Subaru
Chrysler
Volvo
Insight
Elantra
Eclipse
M35
RX-8
A8
Liberty
Impreza Sedan
PT Cruiser Classic
C30
R8
Expedition EL
Terrain
Equinox
Mountainer
Edge
FX35
MDX
CX-9
Town Car
1
2
2
4
6
7
7
8
8
10
100
100
99
98
98
97
97
97
95
90
Only one model per make was selected for the least and most flexible models.
Greatest Discounts
1
Make
Top Discounts: 2010 Makes Top Discounts: 2011 Makes
Top Discounts: 2010 Models Top Discounts: 2011 Models
Rank % Below MSRP
2
3
4
5
1
MakeRank % Below MSRP
2
3
4
5
1
Make / ModelRank % Below MSRP
2
3
4
5
1
Make / ModelRank
2
3
4
5
2
% Below MSRP
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
Chevrolet
Ford
GMC
Chrysler
Lincoln
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Jeep Grand Cherokee
Hyundai Sonata
Ford Ranger
Toyota Avalon
Toyota Camry
Honda Pilot
Volvo C70
BMW 7 Series
Kia Sorento
21%
19%
18%
17%
15%
10%
8%
8%
7%
7%
Toyota
Honda
Kia
BMW
Volvo
9%
8%
7%
7%
6%
14%
14%
12%
11%
11%
Makes with Greatest Discounts on 2010 Vehicles
% B
ELO
W M
SRP
5%
7%
9%
11%
15%
13%
ChevroletFordGMCChryslerLincoln
February March April May
How Do I Use This?
The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2010 and 2011 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make or model’s average MSRP.
Top discounts for 2010 Models are based on the top discounts for each brand.
Greatest Discounts (continued...)
3
Top 2010 Models ( by Body Type ) Top 2011 Models ( by Body Type )
ModelBody Type% Below MSRP ModelBody Type
% Below MSRP
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
Best Day of the Month to Buy a Car
Chevrolet Silverado 1500
Jeep Grand Cherokee
Hyundai Sonata
Ford Focus
Kia Sedona
Chevrolet Corvette
Hyundai Elantra Touring
Toyota Camry
Honda Pilot
Toyota Sienna
Volvo C70
BMW M3
Subaru Outback
Pickup
Sport Utility
Sedan
Coupe
Van
Convertible
Wagon
Sedan
Sport Utility
Van
Convertible
Coupe
Wagon
21%
19%
18%
15%
13%
12%
11%
10%
8%
8%
8%
7%
5%
Consumer Tip of the Month
Our projections for the best and worst day to buy a new vehicle are rooted in an analysis of historical sales as well as short-term forecasts. While July 4th is bound to be a great day for discounts, our projections over the next 31 days suggest that the best day to buy a car is actually Wednesday, June 30th, so plan on buying your car before the July 4th weekend to beat the rush. The worst day to buy a car will likely be on Tuesday, June 22nd.
Best Day to Buy a VehicleJune 30th, 2010Average Discount: 9.05%
Worst Day to Buy a VehicleJune 22nd, 2010Average Discount: 5.99%
*The pickup category has been purposely excluded due to insu�cient data.
PRO
JEC
TED
AVE
RA
GE
DIS
CO
UN
T
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
6/17/10 6/21/10 6/25/10 6/29/10 7/03/10 7/07/10 7/11/10 7/15/10
June 30th, 2010
June 22nd, 2010
Top Vehicles ( by Body Type )
Top Vehicles (overall)
Greatest Price Drop Month Over Month
4
1
Year / Make / Model / TrimRank $ Drop From Last Month
2
3
4
5
Year / Make / Model / TrimBody Type
For each body type, TrueCar tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month.
TrueCar also ranks the trims for unique makes with the overall greatest drop in price from May 7th, 2010 to June 10th, 2010.
$ Drop From Last Month
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
Largest Total Incentives for June
Sedan
Convertible
Sport Utility
Pickup
Coupe
Van
Station Wagon
2010 Mercedes Benz S-Class 4dr Sedan 5.5L V8 4MATIC
2010 BMW 3 Series 2dr Conv 328i
2010 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 4WD 4dr SC
2010 GMC Sierra 1500 4WD Crew Cab 143.5” SLT
2010 Volkswagen GTI 2dr HB Man
2011 Toyota Sienna 5dr 7-Pass Van V6 Ltd FWD
2010 Subaru Outback 4dr Wagon H4 Auto 2.5i
2010 Mercedes Benz S-Class 4dr Sedan 5.5L V8 4MATIC
2010 BMW 3-Series 4dr Sedan 328i xDrive AWD
2010 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 4WD 4dr SC
2010 GMC Sierra 1500 4WD Crew Cab 143.5” SLT
2010 Chevrolet Avalanche
($1,413)
($1,242)
($793)
($688)
($641)
($1,413)
($1,023)
($793)
($688)
($274)
($253)
($95)
This table shows the highest incentive for each brand ranked. Generally, incentives are active throughout the month in which TrueTrends by TrueCar is released. Though active at the time of the reports’ release, incentives are subject to change without notice. Check for updates on the TrueCar price report for each model and with your dealer.
Models with Largest Total Incentives
1
Make / ModelRank Customer Cash Rebate
2
3
4
5
BMW M6
Infiniti QX56
Volvo XC70
GMC Sierra 1500
Nissan Titan
$0
$0
$0
$5,000
$5,000
$12,500
$6,000
$5,000
$0
$0
Dealer Cash
5
2010 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2010 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
Shortest to Longest ( by Body Type )
Industry Wide Average Days in Inventory for May: 50 Days
Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory
1
7
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
2
3
4
5
6
2011 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2011 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory
May’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory
TrueCar ranks the vehicles that spend, on average, the shortest and longest days on the lot before they sell. We rank by both overall shortest / longest days in inventory and by category. Vehicles that spend little time in inventory are in high demand, while vehicles that spend an extended time in inventory are in low demand.
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
GMC Terrain
Toyota Highlander
Audi Q7
Chevrolet Equinox
Toyota RAV4
Hyundai Tucson
Lexus LX570
Mercedes Benz GL350 Bluetec
Audi S4
Subaru Outback
Mercedes Benz E550C
Subaru Outback
BMW 535i
BMW X6
Mercedes Benz E350C
BMW 335D
Ford Taurus
Toyota Avalon
Ford Mustang
Toyota Camry
Toyota Camry Hybrid
Volvo C70
Volvo C30
Mercedes Benz SL550
Kia Sorento
Toyota Sienna
Infiniti M37
Honda Pilot
Hyundai Sonata
BMW 535i
Mitsubishi Galant
Ford Mustang
Toyota Camry
BMW 128i
Ford F-350
Scion xD
Honda Pilot
Jaguar XK8
Sport Utility
Van
Sedan
Pickup
Coupe
Wagon
Convertible
34
47
57
61
62
62
65
13
14
14
14
15
15
16
17
17
18
6
6
7
7
8
9
9
11
11
40
39
38
36
32
31
27
22
18
166
139
137
135
128
128
125
114
106
106
6June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
2
3
4
5
Lowest Percentage of 2010 Vehicles Sold
Make Rank % of Sales
1 smart*
BMW
Kia
Hyundai
Jaguar
33.8%
51.2%
57.9%
61.9%
69.2%
2
3
4
5
Highest Percentage of 2011 Vehicles Sold
1
MakeRank % of Sales
BMW
Hyundai
Kia
Jaguar
Toyota
47.7%
35.2%
29.2%
28.8%
25.8%
Although still early in the year, 2011 model year vehicles started showing up in decent numbers within the last few weeks and already make up 9.5% of total vehicle sales.*The smart car has 66.2% of the 2009 model year share.
Percent Industry Share of Model Year Vehicles
Model Year Share shows the percentage share of 2010 model year vehicles sold within the last month versus vehicles of any other model year sold. Generally, the higher the model year share value, the higher the discount a consumer can expect to receive on that given model. It also reflects that dealers are more likely to cut deals on a 2010 model in order to make room for a 2011. At this time of year, many brand’s model year mix are predominantly comprised of 2010’s. The makes with the highest percentage of 2010 model year share are Lexus, Mazda, and Jeep.
Model Year Share
Between 2009, 2010, and 2011 vehicles, 2010 shares 89.1% of total sales.
89.1% 2010 VEHICLES
20091.3%
201089.1%
20119.5%
7June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.
Female Registrations & Discount % by Brand (continued)
Make % Female Registrations
Chrysler
Jeep
Buick
Lincoln
BMW
Infiniti
Cadillac
Audi
Jaguar
Land Rover
Ford
Chevrolet
Dodge
GMC
Porsche
Discount
11.0%
8.5%
6.2%
10.9%
7.7%
7.0%
4.9%
5.2%
6.9%
5.7%
13.8%
14.2%
7.9%
12.2%
6.0%
36.8%
35.9%
34.9%
34.7%
34.4%
32.9%
32.7%
32.0%
30.2%
30.1%
29.8%
28.7%
27.0%
21.8%
18.4%
Female Registrations & Discount % by Brand
Make % Female Registrations
Kia
Suzuki
MINI
Subaru
Nissan
Hyundai
Honda
Volvo
Lexus
Mitsubishi
Mercury
Mazda
Volkswagen
Toyota
Acura
Mercedes Benz
45.8%
44.2%
43.9%
43.2%
43.1%
43.0%
42.8%
42.4%
42.3%
41.5%
41.4%
40.9%
40.2%
39.6%
37.8%
36.9%
Discount
8.3%
9.6%
3.8%
5.2%
7.4%
10.0%
8.4%
6.4%
8.2%
6.0%
10.6%
5.9%
6.5%
9.5%
8.0%
9.0%
Models With More Than 50% Female Registration
Make % Female RegistrationsModel MSRP
Volkswagen
Nissan
Hyundai
Volkswagen
Volvo
Honda
Kia
Toyota
Nissan
$20,540
$21,260
$20,790
$34,240
$27,050
$22,325
$21,690
$24,175
$17,900
Invoice
$19,596
$20,307
$20,041
$32,001
$25,478
$20,836
$20,985
$22,654
$16,749
Average Paid
$19,925
$20,048
$20,281
$32,497
$23,988
$21,342
$21,731
$23,153
$16,992
Incentives
none
$1,750
none
none
none
none
$2,000
none
$2,000
Discount
3.0%
13.9%
2.4%
5.1%
11.3%
4.4%
9.0%
4.2%
16.2%
56.1%
53.5%
53.0%
53.0%
51.9%
51.3%
50.5%
50.4%
50.1%
New Beetle
Rogue
Tucson
EOS
S40
CR-V
Sportage
RAV4
Sentra
Gender Differences in Vehicle Registrations
TrueCar’s study was based on over 13 million actual vehicle registrations, covering the last two years. Additionally, TrueCar.com was able to identify current discount percentages for each of these makes and models.
In looking at the gender of the name on the registration alone, and not driver or decision maker, the data shows that more men than women – at a rate of 64% to 36% – register vehicles in the U.S., even though females make up 51% of the U.S. population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The brand with the highest percentage of female registrations was Kia (45.8%), followed by Suzuki (44.2%) and Mini (43.9%). There were 10 total makes with female ratio of over 42%, including Subaru, Hyundai and Volvo, which are all brands known for safety and/or value.
The highest percentage of male registrations included primarily exotics and truck heavy brands. There were six brands at 10% or less for female registration, including Bugatti (0%), Ferrari (5.6%), Lamborghini (6.5%), Tesla (9.8%), Aston Martin (9.9%) and Lotus (10%).
The discount percents are in reference to the 2010 models.
June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc. 8
Appendix
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Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein is for your noncommercial, personal use on an “as-is, as available” basis and may be used by you for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this report and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained in this report may
include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this report.