truetrends

9
June 16th, 2010 by Automotive intelligence covering new car prices, best car deals and more. The Truth Will Prevail The TrueTrends monthly report includes TrueCar’s unique Price Flex Score, identifying new cars with the most negotiating room, as well as best deals by Greatest Percentage below MSRP, Total Incentives, Greatest Price Drops and Days in Inventory. Highlights included: The Greatest Discount section features makes and models that offer the highest discounts on 2010 and 2011 models. Model year 2010 domestic makes including Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Chrysler, and Lincoln offer the biggest discounts. Foreign automakers including Toyota, Honda, Kia, and BMW are offering the biggest discounts on 2011 makes. Wednesday, June 30th will be the day consumers can expect the best buys for the month, with a projected 9.05% discount from MSRP. In addition, the first half of July will see steady discounts over 7% with the 4th of July holiday providing discounts over 7.5%. BMW is leading the way in sales of 2011 models, with 47.7% of their month’s sales coming on 2011 models. Most of BMW’s offerings are available in 2011 models, including the 3, 5 and 7 Series, M3, X5, X6 and Z4. Convertibles, wagons and coupes are where the best potential inventory-based discounts will be seen. On average, convertibles are staying in inventory for 65 days, while wagons and coupes are on-lot for 62 days. Meanwhile, SUVs continue to move off the lots quickly, with an average inventory stay of 34 days. The Hyundai Sonata is a potential steal, remaining in inventory at an average of 166 days. However, it will be tough finding a GMC Terrain, which has an average stay of 13 days. In this edition we’ve added a new section highlighting gender differences in female registrations. This new section displays the nine vehicles with the highest percentage of female registrations along with the pricing and discount information. All brands have been ranked in order by the percentage of female registrations and the percent discount possible for that make. The brand with the highest percentage of female registrations was Kia (45.8%), followed by Suzuki (44.2%) and Mini (43.9%). There were ten total makes with a female percentage over 42%, including Subaru, Hyundai and Volvo, which are all brands known for safety and/or value. These TrueTrends findings will provide consumers with the insights necessary to be better prepared before purchasing their vehicle.

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Page 1: TrueTrends

June 16th, 2010

by

Automotive intelligence covering new car prices, best car deals and more.

The Truth Will PrevailThe TrueTrends monthly report includes TrueCar’s unique Price Flex Score, identifying new cars with the most negotiating room, as well as best deals by Greatest Percentage below MSRP, Total Incentives, Greatest Price Drops and Days in Inventory. Highlights included:

• The Greatest Discount section features makes and models that offer the highest discounts on 2010 and 2011 models.

• Model year 2010 domestic makes including Chevrolet, Ford, GMC, Chrysler, and Lincoln offer the biggest discounts. • Foreign automakers including Toyota, Honda, Kia, and BMW are offering the biggest discounts on 2011 makes.

• Wednesday, June 30th will be the day consumers can expect the best buys for the month, with a projected 9.05% discount from MSRP. In addition, the first half of July will see steady discounts over 7% with the 4th of July holiday providing discounts over 7.5%.

• BMW is leading the way in sales of 2011 models, with 47.7% of their month’s sales coming on 2011 models. Most of BMW’s offerings are available in 2011 models, including the 3, 5 and 7 Series, M3, X5, X6 and Z4.

• Convertibles, wagons and coupes are where the best potential inventory-based discounts will be seen. On average, convertibles are staying in inventory for 65 days, while wagons and coupes are on-lot for 62 days. Meanwhile, SUVs continue to move off the lots quickly, with an average inventory stay of 34 days.

• The Hyundai Sonata is a potential steal, remaining in inventory at an average of 166 days. However, it will be tough finding a GMC Terrain, which has an average stay of 13 days.

• In this edition we’ve added a new section highlighting gender differences in female registrations. This new section displays the nine vehicles with the highest percentage of female registrations along with the pricing and discount information. All brands have been ranked in order by the percentage of female registrations and the percent discount possible for that make.

• The brand with the highest percentage of female registrations was Kia (45.8%), followed by Suzuki (44.2%) and Mini (43.9%). There were ten total makes with a female percentage over 42%, including Subaru, Hyundai and Volvo, which are all brands known for safety and/or value.

• These TrueTrends findings will provide consumers with the insights necessary to be better prepared before purchasing their vehicle.

Page 2: TrueTrends

Score

TrueCar Price Flex Score

1

Least Flexible 2010 Models

ModelMake Score

Most Flexible 2010 Models

ModelMake

Least and Most Flexible 2010 Vehicles ( by Body Type )

Least Flexible ModelBody Type Most Flexible Model

What is the TrueCar Price Flex Score?

The TrueCar Price Flex Score measures the elasticity of transaction price by model. The Price Flex Score calcula-tion dynamically incorporates the factors that affect price variance including the model’s transaction price range, current inventory and sales data. A vehicle experiencing extremely low inventory and a small range of transaction prices will have a low Price Flex Score. Don’t expect much of a discount from the TrueCar average transaction price on a vehicle with a low Price Flex Score. If a vehicle has a high Price Flex Score, however, you have the potential to strike

a deal significantly below (or above, if you’re not careful!) the TrueCar average transaction price. Here are the 2010 models with the highest and the lowest Price Flex Scores. We also show the models with the highest and lowest Price Flex Score within each vehicle category. The scores range from 1 to 100. A score of 1 corresponds to the lowest Price Flex Score and indicates a very small -if any- negotiation power. A score of 100 indicates the highest Price Flex Score, meaning there is a big range of transaction prices for that model.

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Audi

Ford

GMC

Chevrolet

Mercury

Ford

Infiniti

Acura

Mazda

Lincoln

Audi A5 (Score: 1)

Audi R8 (Score: 1)

Ford Explorer Sport Trac (Score: 15)

Lincoln Town Car (Score: 10)

Ford Expedition EL (Score: 2)

Toyota Sienna (Score: 19)

Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen (Score: 34)

Convertible

Coupe

Pickup

Sedan

Sport Utility

Van

Wagon

Mitsubishi Eclipse (Score: 99)

Volvo C30 (Score: 90)

Toyota Tundra 2WD Truck (Score:94)

Honda Insight (Score: 100)

Jeep Liberty (Score: 97)

Volkswagen Routan (Score: 95)

Hyundai Elantra Touring (Score: 99)

Honda

Hyundai

Mitsubishi

Infiniti

Mazda

Audi

Jeep

Subaru

Chrysler

Volvo

Insight

Elantra

Eclipse

M35

RX-8

A8

Liberty

Impreza Sedan

PT Cruiser Classic

C30

R8

Expedition EL

Terrain

Equinox

Mountainer

Edge

FX35

MDX

CX-9

Town Car

1

2

2

4

6

7

7

8

8

10

100

100

99

98

98

97

97

97

95

90

Only one model per make was selected for the least and most flexible models.

Page 3: TrueTrends

Greatest Discounts

1

Make

Top Discounts: 2010 Makes Top Discounts: 2011 Makes

Top Discounts: 2010 Models Top Discounts: 2011 Models

Rank % Below MSRP

2

3

4

5

1

MakeRank % Below MSRP

2

3

4

5

1

Make / ModelRank % Below MSRP

2

3

4

5

1

Make / ModelRank

2

3

4

5

2

% Below MSRP

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Chevrolet

Ford

GMC

Chrysler

Lincoln

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Hyundai Sonata

Ford Ranger

Toyota Avalon

Toyota Camry

Honda Pilot

Volvo C70

BMW 7 Series

Kia Sorento

21%

19%

18%

17%

15%

10%

8%

8%

7%

7%

Toyota

Honda

Kia

BMW

Volvo

9%

8%

7%

7%

6%

14%

14%

12%

11%

11%

Makes with Greatest Discounts on 2010 Vehicles

% B

ELO

W M

SRP

5%

7%

9%

11%

15%

13%

ChevroletFordGMCChryslerLincoln

February March April May

How Do I Use This?

The greatest percent below MSRP helps identify the biggest consumer discounts of the month. Below, TrueCar ranks 2010 and 2011 vehicles with average transaction prices that comprise the greatest percent off the make or model’s average MSRP.

Top discounts for 2010 Models are based on the top discounts for each brand.

Page 4: TrueTrends

Greatest Discounts (continued...)

3

Top 2010 Models ( by Body Type ) Top 2011 Models ( by Body Type )

ModelBody Type% Below MSRP ModelBody Type

% Below MSRP

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Best Day of the Month to Buy a Car

Chevrolet Silverado 1500

Jeep Grand Cherokee

Hyundai Sonata

Ford Focus

Kia Sedona

Chevrolet Corvette

Hyundai Elantra Touring

Toyota Camry

Honda Pilot

Toyota Sienna

Volvo C70

BMW M3

Subaru Outback

Pickup

Sport Utility

Sedan

Coupe

Van

Convertible

Wagon

Sedan

Sport Utility

Van

Convertible

Coupe

Wagon

21%

19%

18%

15%

13%

12%

11%

10%

8%

8%

8%

7%

5%

Consumer Tip of the Month

Our projections for the best and worst day to buy a new vehicle are rooted in an analysis of historical sales as well as short-term forecasts. While July 4th is bound to be a great day for discounts, our projections over the next 31 days suggest that the best day to buy a car is actually Wednesday, June 30th, so plan on buying your car before the July 4th weekend to beat the rush. The worst day to buy a car will likely be on Tuesday, June 22nd.

Best Day to Buy a VehicleJune 30th, 2010Average Discount: 9.05%

Worst Day to Buy a VehicleJune 22nd, 2010Average Discount: 5.99%

*The pickup category has been purposely excluded due to insu�cient data.

PRO

JEC

TED

AVE

RA

GE

DIS

CO

UN

T

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

6/17/10 6/21/10 6/25/10 6/29/10 7/03/10 7/07/10 7/11/10 7/15/10

June 30th, 2010

June 22nd, 2010

Page 5: TrueTrends

Top Vehicles ( by Body Type )

Top Vehicles (overall)

Greatest Price Drop Month Over Month

4

1

Year / Make / Model / TrimRank $ Drop From Last Month

2

3

4

5

Year / Make / Model / TrimBody Type

For each body type, TrueCar tracks the average transaction price for each trim and lists vehicles with the greatest drop in price month over month.

TrueCar also ranks the trims for unique makes with the overall greatest drop in price from May 7th, 2010 to June 10th, 2010.

$ Drop From Last Month

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Largest Total Incentives for June

Sedan

Convertible

Sport Utility

Pickup

Coupe

Van

Station Wagon

2010 Mercedes Benz S-Class 4dr Sedan 5.5L V8 4MATIC

2010 BMW 3 Series 2dr Conv 328i

2010 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 4WD 4dr SC

2010 GMC Sierra 1500 4WD Crew Cab 143.5” SLT

2010 Volkswagen GTI 2dr HB Man

2011 Toyota Sienna 5dr 7-Pass Van V6 Ltd FWD

2010 Subaru Outback 4dr Wagon H4 Auto 2.5i

2010 Mercedes Benz S-Class 4dr Sedan 5.5L V8 4MATIC

2010 BMW 3-Series 4dr Sedan 328i xDrive AWD

2010 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 4WD 4dr SC

2010 GMC Sierra 1500 4WD Crew Cab 143.5” SLT

2010 Chevrolet Avalanche

($1,413)

($1,242)

($793)

($688)

($641)

($1,413)

($1,023)

($793)

($688)

($274)

($253)

($95)

This table shows the highest incentive for each brand ranked. Generally, incentives are active throughout the month in which TrueTrends by TrueCar is released. Though active at the time of the reports’ release, incentives are subject to change without notice. Check for updates on the TrueCar price report for each model and with your dealer.

Models with Largest Total Incentives

1

Make / ModelRank Customer Cash Rebate

2

3

4

5

BMW M6

Infiniti QX56

Volvo XC70

GMC Sierra 1500

Nissan Titan

$0

$0

$0

$5,000

$5,000

$12,500

$6,000

$5,000

$0

$0

Dealer Cash

Page 6: TrueTrends

5

2010 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2010 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory

1

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

Shortest to Longest ( by Body Type )

Industry Wide Average Days in Inventory for May: 50 Days

Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory

1

7

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

2

3

4

5

6

2011 Vehicles: Shortest Days in Inventory 2011 Vehicles: Longest Days in Inventory

1

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1

Make / ModelRank Days in Inventory

May’s Shortest and Longest Days in Inventory

TrueCar ranks the vehicles that spend, on average, the shortest and longest days on the lot before they sell. We rank by both overall shortest / longest days in inventory and by category. Vehicles that spend little time in inventory are in high demand, while vehicles that spend an extended time in inventory are in low demand.

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

GMC Terrain

Toyota Highlander

Audi Q7

Chevrolet Equinox

Toyota RAV4

Hyundai Tucson

Lexus LX570

Mercedes Benz GL350 Bluetec

Audi S4

Subaru Outback

Mercedes Benz E550C

Subaru Outback

BMW 535i

BMW X6

Mercedes Benz E350C

BMW 335D

Ford Taurus

Toyota Avalon

Ford Mustang

Toyota Camry

Toyota Camry Hybrid

Volvo C70

Volvo C30

Mercedes Benz SL550

Kia Sorento

Toyota Sienna

Infiniti M37

Honda Pilot

Hyundai Sonata

BMW 535i

Mitsubishi Galant

Ford Mustang

Toyota Camry

BMW 128i

Ford F-350

Scion xD

Honda Pilot

Jaguar XK8

Sport Utility

Van

Sedan

Pickup

Coupe

Wagon

Convertible

34

47

57

61

62

62

65

13

14

14

14

15

15

16

17

17

18

6

6

7

7

8

9

9

11

11

40

39

38

36

32

31

27

22

18

166

139

137

135

128

128

125

114

106

106

Page 7: TrueTrends

6June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

2

3

4

5

Lowest Percentage of 2010 Vehicles Sold

Make Rank % of Sales

1 smart*

BMW

Kia

Hyundai

Jaguar

33.8%

51.2%

57.9%

61.9%

69.2%

2

3

4

5

Highest Percentage of 2011 Vehicles Sold

1

MakeRank % of Sales

BMW

Hyundai

Kia

Jaguar

Toyota

47.7%

35.2%

29.2%

28.8%

25.8%

Although still early in the year, 2011 model year vehicles started showing up in decent numbers within the last few weeks and already make up 9.5% of total vehicle sales.*The smart car has 66.2% of the 2009 model year share.

Percent Industry Share of Model Year Vehicles

Model Year Share shows the percentage share of 2010 model year vehicles sold within the last month versus vehicles of any other model year sold. Generally, the higher the model year share value, the higher the discount a consumer can expect to receive on that given model. It also reflects that dealers are more likely to cut deals on a 2010 model in order to make room for a 2011. At this time of year, many brand’s model year mix are predominantly comprised of 2010’s. The makes with the highest percentage of 2010 model year share are Lexus, Mazda, and Jeep.

Model Year Share

Between 2009, 2010, and 2011 vehicles, 2010 shares 89.1% of total sales.

89.1% 2010 VEHICLES

20091.3%

201089.1%

20119.5%

Page 8: TrueTrends

7June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc.

Female Registrations & Discount % by Brand (continued)

Make % Female Registrations

Chrysler

Jeep

Buick

Lincoln

BMW

Infiniti

Cadillac

Audi

Jaguar

Land Rover

Ford

Chevrolet

Dodge

GMC

Porsche

Discount

11.0%

8.5%

6.2%

10.9%

7.7%

7.0%

4.9%

5.2%

6.9%

5.7%

13.8%

14.2%

7.9%

12.2%

6.0%

36.8%

35.9%

34.9%

34.7%

34.4%

32.9%

32.7%

32.0%

30.2%

30.1%

29.8%

28.7%

27.0%

21.8%

18.4%

Female Registrations & Discount % by Brand

Make % Female Registrations

Kia

Suzuki

MINI

Subaru

Nissan

Hyundai

Honda

Volvo

Lexus

Mitsubishi

Mercury

Mazda

Volkswagen

Toyota

Acura

Mercedes Benz

45.8%

44.2%

43.9%

43.2%

43.1%

43.0%

42.8%

42.4%

42.3%

41.5%

41.4%

40.9%

40.2%

39.6%

37.8%

36.9%

Discount

8.3%

9.6%

3.8%

5.2%

7.4%

10.0%

8.4%

6.4%

8.2%

6.0%

10.6%

5.9%

6.5%

9.5%

8.0%

9.0%

Models With More Than 50% Female Registration

Make % Female RegistrationsModel MSRP

Volkswagen

Nissan

Hyundai

Volkswagen

Volvo

Honda

Kia

Toyota

Nissan

$20,540

$21,260

$20,790

$34,240

$27,050

$22,325

$21,690

$24,175

$17,900

Invoice

$19,596

$20,307

$20,041

$32,001

$25,478

$20,836

$20,985

$22,654

$16,749

Average Paid

$19,925

$20,048

$20,281

$32,497

$23,988

$21,342

$21,731

$23,153

$16,992

Incentives

none

$1,750

none

none

none

none

$2,000

none

$2,000

Discount

3.0%

13.9%

2.4%

5.1%

11.3%

4.4%

9.0%

4.2%

16.2%

56.1%

53.5%

53.0%

53.0%

51.9%

51.3%

50.5%

50.4%

50.1%

New Beetle

Rogue

Tucson

EOS

S40

CR-V

Sportage

RAV4

Sentra

Gender Differences in Vehicle Registrations

TrueCar’s study was based on over 13 million actual vehicle registrations, covering the last two years. Additionally, TrueCar.com was able to identify current discount percentages for each of these makes and models.

In looking at the gender of the name on the registration alone, and not driver or decision maker, the data shows that more men than women – at a rate of 64% to 36% – register vehicles in the U.S., even though females make up 51% of the U.S. population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The brand with the highest percentage of female registrations was Kia (45.8%), followed by Suzuki (44.2%) and Mini (43.9%). There were 10 total makes with female ratio of over 42%, including Subaru, Hyundai and Volvo, which are all brands known for safety and/or value.

The highest percentage of male registrations included primarily exotics and truck heavy brands. There were six brands at 10% or less for female registration, including Bugatti (0%), Ferrari (5.6%), Lamborghini (6.5%), Tesla (9.8%), Aston Martin (9.9%) and Lotus (10%).

The discount percents are in reference to the 2010 models.

Page 9: TrueTrends

June 16th, 2010 - TrueTrends™ by TrueCar™ - © 2010 TrueCar, Inc. 8

Appendix

About Us

TrueCar is the authority in new-car pricing. We show car buyers and car dealers how much people actually paid for a particular car in a specific local area. With TrueCar pricing, both new car buyers and new car dealers can know at any time what is considered a good or great price on a new car. Consumers no longer need to walk into a dealership partially informed and fully suspicious – using TrueCar they walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers benefit by TrueCar’s real-time, unbiased information about

Contact Us

TrueCar Inc.225 Santa Monica Blvd, 6th FloorSanta Monica, CA 90401(800) [email protected]

Visit us at www.truecar.com

marketplace pricing, helping them price cars for increased sales, and ultimately gaining market share over other dealers. Our innovative new car pricing service is offered free of charge on our website at www.truecar.com, on our mobile site at mobile.truecar.com, and via syndication of our tools and pricing data to leading automotive research sites throughout the web.

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein is for your noncommercial, personal use on an “as-is, as available” basis and may be used by you for informational purposes only. TrueCar makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the information contained in this report and the results of the use of such information, including but not limited to implied warranty of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The information contained in this report may

include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors. Neither TrueCar nor any of its parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, or their respective partners, officers, directors, employees, or agents shall be held liable for any damages, whether direct, incidental, indirect, special, or consequential, including without limitation lost revenues or lost profits, arising from or in connection with your use or reliance on the information presented in this report.