trust, social capital and human capital

26
www.qog.pol.gu.se Bo Rothstein The Quality of Government Institute Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg and The Blavatnik School of Government and Nuffield College Oxford University Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Page 1: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

www.qog.pol.gu.se

Bo Rothstein

The Quality of Government Institute

Department of Political Science

University of Gothenburg

and

The Blavatnik School of Government and Nuffield College

Oxford University

Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

Page 2: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The Quality of Government Institute

Started in in 2004 (building database)

Major funding from 2007, 2009, 2013, about 12 mil. euro.

About 20 researchers + 6 PhDs + 6 assistents

Two world leading open access major cross-country

databanks

Regional databases

QoG Expert Survey

Working papers, published articles, data at

www.qog.pol.gu.se

Page 3: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Aim and Focus

• To carry out and promote research about the

importance of trustworthy, reliable, impartial,

competent, non-corrupt, non-discriminatory

government institutions = QoG

• QoG is about the exercise, not the access of political

power

• Central focus is not to explain politics or public policy,

but what politics and public policy imply for human

well-being

Page 4: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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This talk is based on three papers:

• Uslaner, Eric M., and Bo Rothstein. 2016. "The Historical

Roots of Corruption. State Building, Economic Inequality, and

Mass Education." Comparative Politics 49

• Charron, Nicholas, and Bo Rothstein. 2016. “Does Education

Lead to Higher Generalized Trust? Testing the Mechanism of

Institutional Quality on Trust.” QoG Working Paper 2016:1

• Rothstein, Bo, Marcus Samanni, and Jan Teorell. 2012.

"Explaining the welfare state: power resources vs. the Quality

of Government." European Political Science Review 4

Page 5: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The Questions

• How to explain the huge variation in social trust

between individuals, regions and countries

• How to explain the huge variation in corruption

between countris

• Understanding the nexus of education, social

trust and corruption (low QoG)

Page 6: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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• Education 1870 and Corruption 2010

NIG

ANG

NGRZIMCAM

ETH

MYN

MLI

GHA

CIVUGAINS

MOR

MOZ

SUD

SENBEN

PAK

IND

BNG

IRQ

MAL

SLPHLMAD

EGY

THA

KEN

TUR

PRU

IRNSYR

TUN

ALG

MLW

POR

BRZ

DOMJAMGUA

NIC

MEX

ELS

PARHON

PANCUBITA

CRI

RUS

CHL

JPN

CHN

SAF

VNZ

SKR

GRE

FIN

ARG

SPN

URU

BUL

HUN

IRE

AUS

AST

UK

NZ

FRA

SWE

BEL

DEN

HOL

WGR

USA

NOR

CANSWZ

24

68

10

Corru

ption

20

10

0 2 4 6Mean School Years 1870

r2 = .699 N = 78

Corruption 2010 by Mean School Years 1870

Page 7: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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A decisive break with the past

• Mass education “signaled a decisive break with the voluntary

and particularistic mode of medieval and early modern

education, where learning was narrowly associated with

specialized forms of clerical, craft and legal training, and

existed merely as an extension of the corporate interests of

the church, the town, the guild and the family. Public

education embodied a new universalism which acknowledged

that education was applicable to all groups in society and

should serve a variety of social needs. The national systems

were designed specifically to transcend the narrow

particularism of earlier forms of learning. They were to serve

the nation as a whole” (Green 1990)

Page 8: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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All About State Capacity

• Why the logic of economic theories does not work

• If Marxist theory (demand from the capitalist logic of

production) or Modernization Theory (demand from logic of

industrialization) would explain the introduction of mass

education, the UK would have been the first country to

introduce such reforms

• But the UK was a late comer to free mass education

• Instead, it is semi-feudal, militaristic, junker-dominated

Prussia that is the pioneer and who’s system becomes the

”role model” for the industrialized world.

Page 9: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The QoG Regional Surveys

• 2010 survey of 34000 people in 174 EU regions

• 2013 survey of 84000 people in 212 EU region

• Telephone survey with ”next birthday method”

• Questions aimed at capturing citizens’ perceptions

and experiences with corruption, and the extent to

which they rate their public services as impartial and

of good quality + the social trust question

Page 10: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Page 11: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The Trust – Education Puzzle

• Uslaner: ”The single best predictor of social

trust and virtually every type of participation is

education.”

• Helliwell and Putnam: “increases in average

education levels improve trust and do not

reduce participation”

• BUT NOT EVERYWHERE!

• So, why does education have a positive impact

on trust in some societies but not in others?

• Education is only measured in the amount of

time, not what happens during the education

Page 12: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The QoG survey questions

• How would you rate the quality of public education (health

care system, police force) in your area?

• The public education (etc..) gives special advantages to

certain people in my area.

• All citizens are treated equally in the local public

schools(etc.) in my area

• Corruption is prevalent in my area’s local public school

system (etc.)

• How often do you think other people in your area use

bribery to obtain other special advantages that they are not

entitled to?

Page 13: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Experience based question

• In the past 12 months have you or anyone living in

your household paid a bribe in any form to (a)

Education services? (b): Health or medical services?

(c): Police? d) any other public service?

• Generally speaking, would you say that most people

can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in

dealing with people in your area?”

Page 14: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Education is a public policy that is very

vulnerable to ”bad implementation”

• 59 percent of the population in Eastern Europe perceives

education in their country to be corrupt or extremely

corrupt

• Shadow schools, teacher absenteeism and “ghost

teachers,” bribes for access to education, the buying of

grades, nepotism in teacher appointments, fake

diplomas, private tutoring in place of formal teaching,

bribery for on-campus accommodation, misuse of funds,

and sexual exploitation in exchange for grades and

exams, etc. etc.

Page 15: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Results I

Stunning differences in social trust in Europé between and within countries

• Between EU regions from 8 percent trusters in the Východné Slovensko region in Slovakia to 80 percent in the Copenhagen region in Denmark

• Within country differences, Schleswig-Holstein 66 percent, Saarland 36 percent

Page 16: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Blue/black = high QoG – Yellow/green=low QoG

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SESESE DKDKDKDKDK

UKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKUKFIFIFIFIFI ATATATATATATATATAT IEIE NLNLNLNLNLNLNLNLNLNLNLNL

ITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITITDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDEDE

ESESESESESESESESESESESESESESESESES

ROROROROROROROROPTPTPTPTPTPTPT

BEBEBEHRHR

PLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPLPL

BGBGBGBGBGBGGRGRGRGR FRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFRFR

HUHUHU

CZCZCZCZCZCZCZCZSKSKSKSK RSRSRSRSRSmean: 0.42

standard dev.: 0.19

0.2

.4.6

.8

0 5 10 15 20Trust by Country Rank

regional estimates pop. weighted country estimates

Social Trust in 22 European Countries and Regional Variation

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Results II

Education in general spurs social trust

But not everywhere. Educations has a negligible (or even a slightly

negative) effect in several countries in the study - Serbia, Turkey,

Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Ukraine, and Ireland.

At low values of QoG, the probability of generalized trust is

remarkably low, irrespective of education level attained (less than 0.4

in all cases), while at high levels of QoG, even respondents with the

lowest level of education (less than secondary) are greater than 50%

likely to display social trust.

Page 19: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Results III

Someone with a post-tertiary education in a low QoG

region would only be roughly 42 percent likely to “trust

others,” while an otherwise similar respondent with post-

tertiary education in a high QoG region would be 66

percent likely to “trust others.”

The difference between otherwise similar respondents

between post-tertiary and less than high school education

in the low region in Belgium (Wallonia) is 0.18, while in

the high QoG region (Flanders), the gap in trust is more

than double, 0.42

Page 20: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Theory: The Causal Mechanisms

• People will have to use heuristics when defining their attitude about social trust

• When answering the general trust question, people make a moral evaluation of the society in which they live

• Reasonable to believe that this evaluation of people in general is informed by heuristics information about local public servants

• ”Der Fisch Stinkt vom Kopf her”

Page 21: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The Natural Experiment from Denmark

• “”The results show that having experienced fair teachers has a

much stronger impact on trust than parental socialization of

values for first and second generation immigrants. In other

words, immigrants’ perceptions of fairness of Danish

institutions appear to be primarily rooted in concrete

experiences with teachers – some of the first street-level

bureaucrats that children encounter – treating everyone

equally. This further substantiates the experiential perspective

on trust.” (Dinesen, Peter Thisted. 2012: When in Rome, Do

as the Romans Do. Diss. Aarhus

Page 22: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Getting to good schools. What does it take?

• Activity in voluntary associations?

• Hardly any empirical support

• Center-left governments?

• Some evidence from public spending but only explains part of

the variation

• High QoG ?

• For public spending on social programs explains as much as

political dimension

Page 23: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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The results from the European Social Service

• A person in Europe who agrees that the government should take

measures for reducing difference in income levels and who agrees

that income differences should be small

• But who thinks that the tax administration and/or the public health

system is incompentent, inefficient and unfair in treating people

equaly, this person is more likely to

• Support lower taxes and less public spending

• And the opposite is also the case !

• Thus, ideology is not enough for support for more public spending on

education if QoG is low.

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Ethnic Diversity, QoG and Social Trust

• Many and very varied empirical results

• QoG Regional Survey plus data from Eurostat

• Ethnic Diversity measured as percentage in region born

outside Europe

• In general, more ethnic diversity less social trust

• But, the whole effect of ethnic diversity disappears when we

control for QoG

• In high QoG regions, ethnic diversity does not decrease social

trust – this only happens in low QoG regions

Page 25: Trust, Social Capital and Human Capital

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Conclusions

• Free, reasonably high quality mass education do increase

social trust

• This goes also for immigrant students in high trust

countries that are form countries with very low social

trust

• But, education is a policy sector that is vulnerable to

many forms of corruption

• Experiencing much education in low QoG countries has a

negative impact on social trust

• Political mobilization for increased spending on education

will be very difficult in low QoG countries

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