truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change ... · carbon budgets o gtco 2 1600 3200...
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Truthswemusttellourselvestomanageclimatechange
RobertSocolow
EnergyTechnologiesAreaSeminarLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory
February15,2018
Whatweproject,andhowfar
Whatweproject,andhowfar
DestinyStudiesisthesystematicexplorationofhumanity’scollectivefuture.
Ithasthepotentialtotransformtoday’stoxicpublicdiscourseandmutedacademicdiscourse.
CO2emissionsscenarios
TheFreshmanSeminar151capsules
Reunions: 0 10 25 50 2046isalsoPU#300.
“Timecapsulesforclimatechange,tobeopenedatyourreunions”
Student’stopics:SealevelriseandcitiesSolarradiationmanagementCarbondioxideremoval
SolarpowerBatteriesElectricCars
Eachstudentwroteabouttwoalternativefutures:Willtheelectriccardominateorfindonlyniches?Theyinterviewedpeoplewitharangeofviews:HowwilltheCatholicChurchdealwithgeoengineering?
“It’suptous.”
MuddLibraryPhotocredit:DeniseApplewhite
Theclimatechangeproblem
Doingordinarythings,wearechangingtheplanet.Becauseourclimatescienceissounsettled,thebestandworstoutcomesofwhatwearedoingaredramaticallydifferent.High-carbonindustrializationinthedevelopingcountriesistheNumberOneproblem.(Note:politicallycharged.)
Oursmallplanet
Ausefulapproximation:Thelong-termaveragetemperatureriseontheEarth’ssurfaceisproportionaltothecumulativeglobalemissionsofCO2.2oCisthemostdiscussedtarget.G=109.
Themultiplierfromemissionstotemperatureriserevealsthatourplanetissmall.Whenweasaspeciesdoordinarythings*globallywiththetechnologieswehave,weharmourselves.*Examplesofordinarythings:eatinghamburgers,commutingtowork,buildingwithconcrete,goingskiing.
1.WewishEarthwerelarger.
OGtCO2160032004800AAfewdecades Afewmore
decades1oC,already 2oC 3oC
Morethanacentury
CarbonbudgetsOGtCO2160032004800
AAfewdecades Afewmoredecades
1oC,already 2oC 3oCMorethanacentury
Ifwewerenotconfrontingclimatechange,theeraoffossilfuels(coal,oil,andgas)couldlasthundredsofyears.
Whatif,in2018,wehadstillnotfiguredoutCO2?
40≈2oC
1600 1600
40
1940 2020 2100
“Hubbertpeak”equivalent
1600 1600 1600
≈3oC
Addonerectangle:40billiontCO2/yr*40yrs
1940 2020 21402060
BudgetsdemandchoicesThebudgetconceptleadsinexorablytochoicesaboutwhichfossilfuelstoextractandwhichtoconsider“unburnable”:
When? Betteroptionssomeday?Whose? GeopoliticalstabilityUsedwhere? “Fairness”Forwhatpurpose? Whojudges?Whichfossilfuels? ThosewiththehighestH/Cratio?
2.Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.
Climatechangehasuncertain“tails”
Warming
Concen
tration
ThisFigurewaspreparedbyMartinManningforWorkingGroup1duringthepreparationoftheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(2007),buttheIPCCdidnotpublishit.Idid,withManning’spermission,inClimaticChange,2011.
TheIPCCfacedachoice.
Theuncertaintwitchinessoftheclimate
Warming
Concen
tration
Twitchyworld
Calmworld
TheIPCCchoice,2007
X
Later,intheFifthAssessmentReport(2012),thelackofconsensuswasnotdisguised:“Nobestestimateforequilibriumclimatesensitivitycannowbegivenbecauseofalackofagreementonvaluesacrossassessedlinesofevidenceandstudies.”
Wecouldbelucky…orunlucky
Thefourreddots:
550ppm:50%chanceof3oC,but1/6chanceof2oC.Lucky!
450ppm:50%chanceof2oC,but1/6chanceof3oC.Unlucky!
Warming
Concen
tration
Twitchyworld
Calmworld
Thebestandworstoutcomesofouremissionsareverydifferent.However,awellknownclimatescienceleader,whenIsaid,“Wecouldbelucky,”replied:“Youmustneversaythat.”
*3.“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.
1 meter 2 meters
4 meters 8 meters
Greenland ice sheet: 7 meters West Antarctic Ice Sheet: 5 meters
Reference pace for sea-level: +1 meter/century
Source: T. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. See: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/climate_impact_webpage.html#section4
Sealevelrise:When?
“Committedemissions”Futureemissionsinherentincurrentinvestments
Globalviewofelectricpowerfrom2012.Assumes40-yearlifeforpowerplants,updatedforretirementsandplant-lifeextensions.
Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014
Remainingcommitment
Remainingemissions,yearbyyear
Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014
Globalremaining“committedemissions”fromthen-operatingpowerplants,1950–2012.(Assumesa40-yearlifetime.)
CHINA
Apreliminaryanalysisupdatedbyfouryears(to2016)shows355GtCO2ofremainingcommitments,thusacontinued4%/yeargrowth(DanTong,unpublished).
Total:300GtCO2
20121950
COALCHINAU.S.
Committedemissionsfromnewbuildings
Shown:Yanjiao,China
Mostpower-plantelectronsgotobuildings.Lessdemandforheating,cooling,andappliances–fewerpowerplants.
*4.“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.
Leapfrogging
Developingcountriesusedtobeunwillingtodosomethingbeforeitwasprovenintheindustrializedcountries.Theydidn’twanttobeguineapigs.Thisischanging.Forexample,Chinaisleapfroggingovertherestoftheworldwithhigh-voltagetransmission.
5.Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.
Onebillionhighemitters
Source:http://www.climatescienceandpolicy.eu/2009/11/afocus-on-individuals-can-guide-nations-towards-a-low-carbon-world/
1114
9 5
3 1
0.7 0.5
1.9 0.8
3.6 0.7
1.2billion“highemitters”in2030.
Binboundariesat2tCO2/yrand10tCO2/yrarethe2003percapitavaluesforBrazilandEU.Mosthighemittersarenot“rich.”
2003 2003-30
Collaborators:ShoibalChakravartyandMassimoTavoni.
Wheredothehighemitterslive?
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2030
2003
2-10
<2
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
2030
2003
USA otherOECD China othernonOECD
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2030
2003
>10
Morethanhalfofthe2030highemittersareprojectedtoliveoutsidetheOECD.
Thehigh-emitterlifestyleissimilaracrosstheworld.Bestpracticespioneeredinonecountrycanspread.
The“Paris”processcanhelp:participantsshowofftheirbestdishes.
6.“Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.
Highemittersandabjectpoverty
Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2
1
The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels.
“Solutions”
Therearestillmanyoptions.Isitalreadytimetodeclareawinner?Optionscanbemoredangerousthanclimatechange.
Stabilizationwedges…in2004
2011KentuckyDerby,APPhoto/MattSlocum.https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/2011-kentucky-derby/7
Slidepair:courtesyofGretaShum,AndlingerCenter,PrincetonUniversity
wind/solar
H2 for fuel CCS
nuclear
biological
efficient coal plants
gas for coal
end-use efficiency
storage!
Stabilizationwedges…in2018
MelbourneCup,TheForeignCorrespondents‘Club,HongKong.https://www.fcchk.org/event/melbourne-cup
U.S.powerplants:Replacedbywhat?When?
Age:40.
Relicensing? Earlyretirement?
WindPower:Low-OutputAnalysis(LOA)
A,B,C,andDmarkthefourlongestperiodswithwindpoweroutputbelow3GW,halfoftheannualaverage(6GW).Installedcapacity:17GW.
FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.
Windaccountedfor15%of2016ERCOT(roughly,Texas)electricityproduction.WindexpansioncouldbethwartedbyeventslikeA-D.
50%ofannualaverage
OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)
Windspeed(SanMarcos,TX)
FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.
OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)
FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.
Back-upwasprobablymostlynaturalgas.
Itseemsinevitablethatwindandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandwillincreaseourengagementwithnature.
*7.Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.
RapidSwitch:Howquicklycanchangeoccur?
Howquicklycansolarandwindgainmarketshare?Howquicklycancoallosemarketshare?
Whatlimitshowquicklysocialnormscanchange?Windandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandincreaseourengagementwithnature.Howstronglywillweresist?
Historyisuseful:Howquicklydidautomobilesdisplacehorses?Whyneitherfasternorslower?Whatgoeswrongwhenchangeisattemptedtooquickly?
8.“RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.
Every“solution”isdangerous*.
EverystrategycanbeimplementedwellorpoorlyNuclearpower NuclearwarBiocarbon CompetingusesoflandGeoengineering Technologicalhegemony
“Cleancoal” Mining:workerandlandimpactsWindandsolar Unreliability Conservation Regimentation
Itisessentialtoidentifythe“conditionalities”thatmakeasolutionlessdangerous.
Riskmanagementreappears:Itispossibletoachieve2oCandregretdoingso.“Two-sidedreasoning”weighsboththethreatandthe“solutions.”
*IchoosethewordwithRioinmind.
Conditionality for nuclear powerNuclearpoweriscoupledinevitablytonuclearweapons.Alas,inthepasttwodecades,nuclearweaponshavebecomemoredesired.Thus,aconditionforthedeploymentofnuclearpowertoaddressclimatechangeneedstobethatitleadsawayfrom,nottoward,nationalnuclearweaponsprograms.TheIrandealshowstheextenttowhichsovereigntymustbecompromisedtosevertheconnectionbetweennuclearpowerandnuclearweapons.ThelogicoftheIrandealpointstowardtheinternationalizationofnuclearpower–especiallythe“fuelcycle”–includingfortheU.S.
9.Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.
Conditionality for biocarbon
Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?
Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…
Conditionality for biocarbon
Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?
Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…
Now,changeroles.Youarethepolicymakerinthesameworld.Whatconditionalitieswouldyouplaceonthecarbonmarketforbiostocksintheinterestofelicitingactionsyouwouldwelcomeanddeterringoutcomesyouwoulddecry?
10.Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tC02.
GeoengineeringbyimitatingvolcanoesOnJune15,1991(threedaysafterthisphoto),Mt.Pinatuboinjected10milliontonsofsulfurintothestratosphere.
TheEarth’saveragesurfacetemperaturewas0.5oCcoolersixmonthslater,thenrebounded.
CoolingtheEarthdeliberatelybyperpetuallyinjectingsulfurparticlesintothestratosphereisanexampleof“geoengineering”(alsocalled“solarradiationmanagement”).
EngineeredEarthInafullyengineeredplanet:
• Theremaybenowayback.
• Thereisnoobviouspoliticalprocessthatwillreconcilecontendinggoals.
• Takingotherspeciesintoaccountwillcreateconflict;manyspeciesdependontheextremeeventswefindunpleasantandcostly.
11.Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatetheevolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.
PatientEarth
“I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures that are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.”
Hippocrates
*ModernversionoftheHippocraticoath,LouisLasagna,1964,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html
*12.Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcautiontothewinds,arenotoptimal.
Twelvetruths1. WewishEarthwerelarger.2. Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.3. *“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.
4. *“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.5. Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.6. “Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.
7. *Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.
8. “RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.
9. Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.10. Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tCO2.11. Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatethe
evolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.12. *Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcaution
tothewinds,arenotoptimal.
Cansuchpointsofdeparture–andmanycomparableones–enableamoreconstructiveconversationaboutclimatechange?
RememberwhatsupportingscienceinAmericalookedlike?
1st WH Astronomy Night for Kids 1st WH Science Fair
Honoring outstanding K-12 science teachers
Mathletes in the Oval Office
Visiting MIT’s Energy Lab
SlidefromJohnHoldren,December2017
HomagetotheresearchcommunityItsvalues:Rigor,engagement,independence,globalreach,collegiality,irreverence,moralcompass.
Itsscholar-friends:JohnHarte,MarcRoss,ArtRosenfeld,FrankvonHippel,BobWilliams,StevePacala,andmanymore.
Itshomesforme:Harvard,LBNL,CERN,Yale,Princeton
Itsyoungpeople:undergrads,graduatestudents,post-docs.Theyreplenishthespirit(“it’suptous”).Theytakethebaton.
Whatwillbeintheirtalksin2068?