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TSIA TTIP case study workshop

Focus on the social and environmental impact case studies

Brussels, 9 July 2015

Welcome!

Opening

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Goals of the meeting• We have pre-chosen 6 case studies – validate (or did we

miss the elephant in the room? – then swap)

• We want to shape the content/focus of the case studies

much more / ask for suggestions for direction;

• We like to cover ground on soc, env, human rights +

continue the follow-up.

Rules of the game – for today’s workshop• Tight agenda (next slide);

• State name + organisation you speak for each time;

• Each case study 15 minutes – then next case study (further

discussion – through contact details bilaterally).

Goals of the meeting

09.30 – 09.35 Opening and introduction

09:30 – 10:00 Methodology and introduction of

suggested case studies

10:00 – 10:30 General feedback on selected

topics of the case studies

10:30 – 11:30 Stakeholder discussion on

suggested social case studies

11:30 – 11:45 Coffee break

11:45 – 12:45 Discussion on suggested

environmental case Studies

12:45 – 13:00 Conclusions and way forward

Agenda

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Introduction

Introduction

Additional quantitative welfare and income analysis • Discussion of social impacts as disclosed by the CGE model

• Welfare and income analysis using EU household level data for the impacts

of TTIP on different population groups in the EU-28 as a whole

• “What will TTIP mean for the income and welfare of different

population groups in the EU?”

1. Income groups (five strata based on income – rich to poor)

2. Socio-economic status (manual and non-manual; self-employed;

unemployed; retired; inactive)

3. Densely populated and scarcely populated densities

Qualitative analysis• Case studies

SIA methodology social impact analysis

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Introduction

Quantitative impact on air pollution, climate change and

resource use • Introduction of E3MG scenario

• Discussion and analysis of results on:

– Energy consumption (by user and fuel)

– CO2 emissions by user

– Decomposition of CO2 effects into technique, composition and scale

– Impacts on other GHG emissions

– Estimates of economic damages from local air pollutants

– Raw material demand

Qualitative impact analysis• Environmental baseline description

• General impacts expected from regulatory cooperation

• Three case studies

SIA methodology environmental impact analysis

Introduction

• Overall aim of the case studies

– To provide a clear, factual and objective representation of the

potential impacts of TTIP of selected issues in the environmental and

social domain

– not separately analyzed in other parts of the SIA

– for which significant impacts are expected from TTIP

– About which civil society has expressed particular concerns

• 3 social case studies and 3 environmental case studies

• Methodology social and environmental case studies:

1. Stakeholder feedback and input

2. Input from negotiation positions and ambitions

3. Desk research [literature, data – if available – and CGE input]

4. Expert feedback

Social and environmental impact case studies

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Introduction

Expected structure of the case study • Approximately 3-4 pages

1. Introduction to the problem/issue

2. Discussion of related (potential) provisions in TTIP

3. Discussion and explanation of potential adverse and beneficial impacts

for the EU (citizens and economy)

4. Discussion on most likely impacts to materialise based on the

information on the negotiations so far

5. Conclusions and recommendations for negotiators– Flanking measures for potential negative effects

– Policy options for possible positive effects

Social and environmental impact case studies

Suggested social case studies

1. TTIP and labour standards– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on the eight ILO Core Labour

Conventions?

◦ Bilateral impacts on the EU or US

◦ Multilateral impacts from the ambition to set a global ‘standard’

2. TTIP and labour mobility– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on labour mobility between

sectors and which factors need to be considered to realise this mobility?

◦ Analysis of contracting and growing sectors

◦ Analysis on current policies in place to facilitate these predicted movements [e.g.

training, education, job matching]

3. TTIP and human health/public health services– To what extent could TTIP lead to indirect impacts on human health?

Through improved access to (generic) medicines;

Through increased availability of cheaper processed foods, alcoholic beverages

and tobacco from the US

– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on the provision of public health

services in the EU?

– Through ‘regulatory chill’ expected from ISDS or through expected

competition from non-public health services

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Suggested environmental case studies

1. TTIP and renewables/energy efficiency– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on energy-efficient goods through

cooperation on environmental labelling?

◦ Cooperation on voluntary labelling programs

◦ Harmonisation of energy performance test procedures (eco-label Directive)

2. TTIP and fossil fuels– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on trade in unconventional fuels

(shale oil and gas)?

◦ The expected impact of a potential lift in export restrictions and the likely expected

impacts on increased exports to the EU

◦ Including associated discussion on expected environmental impacts in the EU

3. TTIP and trade in legal and sustainable natural resources– What would be the expected impact of TTIP on trade in illegal (logged) timber

and wildlife?

◦ Expected impact of joint cooperation on curbing market access of illegal natural

resources on both EU and US markets from third countries

General stakeholder feedback on suggested topics

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Stakeholder discussion on suggested social case studies

TTIP and labour standards

• TTIP & Core Labour Standards

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on the eight ILO Core

Labour Conventions?

◦ Bilateral impacts on the EU or US

◦ Multilateral impacts from the ambition to set a global ‘standard’

◦ Potentially including ‘work safety’

• Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

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TTIP and labour mobility

• TTIP & labour mobility

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on labour mobility

between sectors and which factors need to be considered to realise

this mobility?

◦ Analysis of contracting and growing sectors

◦ Analysis on current policies in place to facilitate these predicted

movements [e.g. training, education, job matching]

• Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

TTIP and human health/public health services

1. TTIP & human health

To what extent could TTIP lead to indirect impacts on human health?

◦ Through improved access to (generic) medicines;

◦ Through increased availability of cheaper processed foods, alcoholic

beverages and tobacco from the US

2. TTIP & public health services

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on the provision of

public health services in the EU?

◦ Through ‘regulatory chill’ expected from ISDS or through expected

competition from non-public health services

Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

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TTIP and human rights – follow-up

Ecorys also carries out short ‘TTIP and human rights’ analysis

1. (Possibly related to social dimension) What Human Rights issues

are most important to focus on?

2. What are your concerns/worries regarding Human Rights impact

of TTIP?

3. Any sources/documentation you have / know of and want to share

with us?

4. Leave your contact details with Janiek Eising – for follow-up and

further discussions.

Break

Break

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Stakeholder discussion on suggested environmental case studies

TTIP and renewables/energy efficiency

• TTIP and environmental labelling

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on energy-efficient

goods through cooperation on environmental labelling?

◦ Cooperation on voluntary labelling programs

◦ Harmonisation of energy performance test procedures (eco-label

Directive)

• Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

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TTIP and fossil fuels

• TTIP and unconventional fuels

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on trade in

unconventional fuels (shale oil and gas)?

◦ The expected impact of a potential lift in export restrictions and the

likely expected impacts on increased exports to the EU

◦ Including associated discussion on expected environmental impacts

in the EU

• Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

TTIP and legal and sustainable natural resources

• TTIP and trade in illegal timber and wildlife

What would be the expected impact of TTIP on trade in illegal

(logged) timber and wildlife?

◦ Expected impact of joint cooperation on addressing market access of

illegal natural resources on both EU and US markets from third

countries

◦ Sustainability of fisheries (sharks)

◦ Exotic pet trade

• Your suggestions and/or specific focus?

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Conclusion and way forward

Conclusion and way forward

Let’s stay in touch

1. Email tsia-ttip@ecorys.com

2. Website www.trade-sia.com/ttip

3. Facebook TSIA TTIP [page]

4. Twitter #EcorysTrade

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