Jennifer Jackson Homeland Security Tsunami Paper

Risk Assessment: Tsunami

Tsunamis are large “tidal waves” or large amounts of water, which are displaced

by an ocean event. These waves are propelled across the ocean with deadly force at

phenomenal, jet engine speeds (Collins, 2005; NOAA, 2008). Tsunamis come in a series

of long wavelengths that travel over a period of time rather than a single destructive

wave. The tsunami, which comes from the Japanese words tsu, or harbor, and nami or

wave, can not be seen from the air or felt aboard ships (NOAA, 2008).

Earthquakes of 7 or above on the Richter Scale can produce a major tsunami.

These earthquakes occur when continental oceanic plates slide under other plates and

thus build up pressure. Eventually, this pressure erupts and pushes a section of the sea

floor upwards thus transferring energy to the sea, which results in the giant harbor waves

(Cervelli, 2005; Rajamanickam et al, chpt 1, 2006).

As the tsunami approaches shallow coastal areas its speed slows, its height

increases, and it can become a great wall of water, sometimes miles across. As the

coastal area becomes inundated, deposits of the ocean floor such as mud is left and much

erosion occurs as the water retreats (Rajamanickam et al, chpt 1, 2006; NOAA, 2008;

Nelson et al, 2008; McMurtry etal, 2004).

The threat of tsunamis has been a largely underestimated phenomenon. Though

ocean dwelling earthquakes generally cause the most destructive waves, tsunamis are also

produced by volcanic eruptions, underwater landslides, and meteors or asteroids (Lay,

2006; Cervelli, 2005; Nelson, 2008; Jones, 2002). McMurtry et al (2004) and Isomaki

(2006) contend that tsunamis may become more frequent with the onset of global

warming. As the climate warms, the Pacific subtropical regions get “wetter”, which

increases the water content being retained by porous volcanoes. Consequently, this

increase in magma/water mix can trigger giant submarine landslides (GSL) thus the

potential for huge tsunami development. Another, less acknowledged, generator of

tsunamis, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is a

nuclear explosion (NOAA, 2008).

On December 26, 2004, an earthquake hit Sumatra and the ensuing tsunami

ravaged several countries and killed more than 280,000 people. Cities, coastlines, and

villages were destroyed and many more suffered significant damage. This tsunami was

the most deadly of events and left millions homeless and without enough food and water

(Kelman, 2006; Lay, 2006). The tsunami was an alarming eye-opener for the United

States Government Agencies. Even though the threat of tsunamis is low, the

consequences can be devastatingly high. Many areas of the United States coastline are

vulnerable to tsunamis and the West Coast could, in fact, experience an event similar to

the one in Sumatra (NOAA, 2008). There is an ocean floor plate that is slipping under

the West Coast (Pacific Ocean), which has created a subduction zone in which there is

much strained pressure (Collins, 2005; Lay, 2006). Lay (2006) points out that there are

scientists who are currently studying the region to try to determine if the fault line will

blow any time soon or decades from now. There is also current fear that even an onshore

quake might cause pressure to release in the subduction zone thus creating a GSL, which

could possibly generate a tsunami (Collins, 2005).

There are several economic cost issues of disaster events that are of concern.

According to NOAA (2008), the United States has seen 200 tsunamis in the twentieth

century that took more than 500 lives and that have damaged almost $200 million worth

of infrastructure. These tsunamis have come from Japan, Russia, Chile, and Alaska.

There have been 221 tsunami deaths in Hawaii as well as $40 million of lost productivity

due to the 1986 false alarm evacuations in which there were no warning/buoy system

instruments in place at the time to help in analyzing the actual depth of the event

(NOAA-econ, 2008). Due to the newly focused attention on tsunamis, there has been

much collaboration and concern in regards to early warning systems development,

community preparedness, and response/recovery from tsunami events in the United

States.

In 2005, President Bush created a comprehensive United States tsunami early

detection and warning system, which included building infrastructure and maintaining its

operations (Morrissey, 2008). The NOAA also requested funding for long-term needs to

help support programs that would help with preparing for disasters and adapting to the

risk. Some of these programs include educating citizens, building public shelters, and

practicing evacuations via drills. NOAA also discussed possibilities of developing a

“multi-hazard” warning and response system (or even a global tsunami system) with the

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) (Morrissey, 2008).

Along with setting up detection and warning systems, some believe there was a

need for a resources sharing system among national, state, and local governments as well

as a “community resilience plan in which the community has the ability and resources to

restore economic normalcy and citizen well being as soon as possible after a tsunami

disaster” (NOAA, 2008/ Morrissey, 2008). Thus, there is now a network of buoys across

both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as well as tsunami detection forecasting, warning,

and mitigation policies due to the Tsunami Warning and Education Act that Congress

passed in 2006 (NOAA, 2008). The purposes of this act as listed on the NOAA website

are:

“To improve tsunami detection, forecasting, warnings, notification, outreach, and mitigation to protect life and property in the United States.

To enhance and modernize the existing Pacific Tsunami Warning System to increase coverage, reduce false alarms, and increase the accuracy of forecasts and warnings, and to expand detection and warning systems to include other vulnerable States and Mexico areas.

To improve mapping, modeling, research, and assessment efforts to improve tsunami detection, forecasting, warnings, notification, outreach, mitigation, response, and recover.

To improve and increase education and outreach activities and ensure that those receiving tsunami warnings and the at-risk public know what to do when a tsunami is approaching.

To provide Technical and other assistance to speed international efforts to establish regional tsunami warning systems in vulnerable areas worldwide, including the Indian Ocean.

To improve Federal, State, and International coordination for detection, warnings, and outreach for tsunami and other coastal impacts.” (www.economics.noaa.gov, 2008).

The economic benefits of disaster mitigation are many. One such benefit came in

2003 when buoys or tsunameteres were able to determine that a tsunami wave created by

a quake was not large enough to evacuate Hawaii thus saving some $68 million. Another

example is that the hazard assessment, warning system, and disaster mitigation were

tested in 2005 in a non-substantial tsunami event produced by a quake off of the coast of

California and all were effective (NOAA-econ, 2008).

The major contributor to early tsunami detection is the relatively new Deep Ocean

Assessment of Tsunamis (DART) developed by Dr. Eddie Bernard (Director of the

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory at the NOAA). This deep-ocean detection

system can provide data for 90% accurate tsunami forecasts. As a tsunami travels across

the DART buoys the system sends information to the warning centers where it is

analyzed and used to issue watches, warnings, and evacuations (Service to America

Medals, 2008).

Other aspects of prevention, protection, and response programs include assisting

“at-risk” communities “in developing local tsunami emergency plans, including citizen

education-in-disaster preparedness and response, as part of the National Weather Service

(NWS) TsunamiReady Program” (Morrissey, pg: CSR-8, 2008). The United States

Geological Survey (USGS) has also updated the Global Seismic Network (GSN) and

monitoring stations, while tsunami warnings are now being broadcast via radio, cell

phone, and Internet to ensure widespread communications of warnings. There are 127

global stations that monitor the strength or energy of quakes and thus determine the

potential threat of tsunamis (Morrissey, 2008).

On a more local level, Collins (2005) believes that there is a need for a more

immediate warning system such as posting signs in multiple languages as well as audible

sirens. These ideas have in fact been put into practice on the west coast. Another local

issue would be to make sure local dispatchers are in the first loop of communication

about tsunamis so that they can immediately and continually notify first responders on

how to react appropriately to the impending disaster (Collins, 2005).

All risk analysis or assessment should ultimately consider local context in

implementation of warning systems for each community. Kelman (2006) feels that

procedures should be relevant to the people. A good example of relevance is in an

incident where people in Bangladesh would not use flood shelters because they feared

looting as well as worried about being charged a rental fee for utilizing their local shelter.

The consensus to acknowledge the issue of risk assessment of tsunamis has been

on the rise since December 26, 2004. Warning Systems and detection equipment have

been implemented and upgraded, as have community policies and programs along the

vulnerable coastal communities in the United States. The continued discussions on

sharing data and resources will only further the understanding and reactions or responses

to future disasters and thus mitigation. The accuracy of predicting probable threats is

important in order to determine the true vulnerability of communities. This will help to

ensure future effective protections in each community, while assuring awareness thus

appropriate response to disaster consequences. These policies and procedures help to

cushion the direct and indirect economic costs of assessing/mitigating disasters (NOAA,

2008).

References

Cervelli, Peter. "The Threat of Silent Earthquakes." Scientific American, Special Edition

(2004). Print. The author contends that a new understanding of silent earthquakes

reveals new threats of possible huge landslides that could crash into the ocean and

creat large tsunamis. This is relevent to the subject of this research.

Collins, Larry. "Tsunamis: A Wakeup Call for the U.S. Part 1." Fire Engineering 158.9

(2005): 63-74. Print.

Collins, Larry. "Tsunamis: A Wakeup Call for the U.S. Part 2." Fire Engineering 158.10

(2005): 89-94. Print.

Isomaki, Risto. "Giant Tsunamis and Nuclear Power." Coalition for Environment and

Development. Updated 29, January 2006, 17 Jan. 2005. Web. 19 Sept. 2008.

<http://www.hitsaajat.com/hyoky/vielalisaa.php>. This author is an award

winning (Findland) activist and author of fiction and non-fiction works related to

science. The author discusses discoveries of past Giant tsunamis and possible

causes of the "megatsunamis" including past thoughts of asteroids, underwater

earthquakes, and post-ice age global warming. The latter half of the article deals

with the threat of tsunamis in the context of cosastal nuclear power plants, which

may not be utilized in this paper.

Jones, Nicola. "Get Ready for a Killer Wave." New Scientist 175.2360 (2002). Print. The

author is graduated in chemistry and oceanography as well as has a master's in

journalism and is an award winning author of scientific writing. The article is

based on the imprints of tsunami impacts and the threat of meteors causing

tsunamis -quite relavent to my topic.

Kelman, Ilan. "Warning for the 28 December 2004 Tsunamis." Disaster Prevention and

Management 15.1 (2006): 178-89. Print.

Lay, Thorne. "When the Sea Comes Ashore." Phi Kappa Phi Forum Journal of the

Honor Society. Apr. 2006. Web. 29 Oct. 2008.

<http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa4026/is_/ai_n161184?tag=artbody;co/1>.

McMurtry, G. M., P. Watts, G. J. Fryer, J. R. Smith, and F. Imamura. "Giant Landslides,

Mega-tsunamis, and Paleo-Sea Levelin the Hawaiian Islands." International

Journal of Marine Geology, Geochemistry, and Geophysics 203 (2004): 219-33.

Print. The authors of this article come from a variety of professions including the

School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology and The Department of

Tsunami Engineering at Tohoku University. They discuss the fact that large

volcanic failures create mega-tsunamis and that climate change will "unleash

large volcanically active oceanic island" in the present times.

Nelson, A. R., Y. Sawai, A. E. Jennings, L. Bradley, L. Gerson, B. L. Sherrod, J. Sabean,

and B. P. Horton. "Great-earthquake Paleogeodesy and Tsunamis of the Past 2000

Years at Alsea Bay, Central Oregon Coast, USA." Quaternary Science Reviews

27 (2008): 747-68. Print. The authors of this article come from a variety of

professions including Geologic Hayards Team, Institute of Aritc and Alpine

Research, and the Department of Earth and Space Sciences. The authors explore

sand sheets deposited by tsunamis of Cascadia's four most recent large earth-

quakes. The article also mentions quake cycles and hazard reduction/management

and will provide information may paper. However, the article is highly analitical

and thus will be utilized sparingly.

Rajamanickam, G. V. 26th December 2004 Tsunami; Causes, Effects, Remidial Measures

Pre and Post Tsunami Disaster Management: A Geoscientific Perspective.

Daryaganj, New Delhi: S. K. Puri for New Academic, 2006. Print. This book is an

anthology of research papers from a variety of scholarly authors (professors,

scientists, researchers, etc). The papers (chapters) discuss the effects , causes, and

the political disaster management elements of tsunamis as well as some future

projects that target post tsunami activities being conducted by academic

institutions and national agencies and is thus highly relavent to my paper.

"2008 Homeland Security Medal Recipient." Service to America Medals. Government,

2008. Web. 27 Oct. 2008.

<http://servicetoamericamedals.org/SAM/recipients/profiles/hsm08_bernard.shtm

l>.

United States. Congress. Knowledge Services Group. CRS Report for Congress. By

Wayne A. Morrissey. 25 Sept. 2008. Web. 20 Oct. 2008.

<http://italy.usembassy.gov/pdf/other/RL32739.pdf>.

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. National Weather

Service. User's Guide for the Tsunami Warning System in the West Coast/Alaska

Tsunami Warning Center Area-of-Responsibilty. NOAA/NWS/WCATWC, July

2008. Web. 15 Oct. 2008. <http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/ops/opsmanual.pdf>.

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Economics.

2008. Web. 29 Oct. 2008. <http://www.economics.noaa.gov/?

goal=weather&file=events/tsunami>.

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Physics of Tsunamis.

2008. Web. 27 Oct. 2008. <http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/physics.htm>.

United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Tsunami Story.

2008. Web. 29 Oct. 2008. <http://www.tsunaim.noaa.gov/tsunami_story.html>.