ttkprest_20120926

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ConsumerDurables September26,2012

TTKPrestige

Bloomberg:TTKPTINReuters:TTKP.BO SELL

InstitutionalEquities

IndiaResearch

INITIATIONREPORT

Recommendation

CMP: Rs3,787

TargetPrice: Rs3,173

Downside(%) 16%

StockInformationMarketCap.(Rsbn/US$mn) 43/780

52weekHigh/Low(Rs) 3,967/2,151

3mADV(Rsmn/US$mn) 413/7.6

Beta 0.95

Sensex/Nifty 18,694/5,674

Shareoutstanding(mn) 11

StockPerformance(%)1M 3M 12M YTD

Absolute 11.0 22.4 44.5 51.6

Rel.toSensex 5.8 11.7 28.8 30.7

Performance

Source:Bloomberg1YearForwardP/E

Source:KarvyInstitutionalResearchAnalystsContactJagadishwarPasunoori,CFA,FRM

+914044857912

[email protected]

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

S11

N11

J12

M12

M12

J12

S12

Sensex(LHS) TTKPrestige

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr

07

Apr

08

Apr

09

Apr

10

Apr

11

Apr

12TTKPrestige1yrForwardP/E

Mean

Mean+StdDev

23.0

APricy

Kitchen

King

TTK Prestige (TTKP) has transformed itself from a single product company

toatotalkitchenappliancescompanyinthelastfiveyears.Itisthemarket

leader in pressure cookers and also commands numero uno position ininductioncooktopswithamarketshareof20%.

DistributorSurveyRevealsDecelerationofSalesGrowth:Our distributor

surveyacrossIndiahasrevealedthatthevolumegrowthinPressureCookers

&NonStickCookwarehasdeceleratedtosingledigitsandvolumegrowthin

KEAincludingInductionCooktopshasdecreasedtomidteens.

CompetitiveAdvantage

in

Pressure

Cookers

may

not

be

extended

to

KEA:

WebelieveTTKPmaynotbeabletoenjoysimilarcompetitiveadvantagein

KEAsegmentasitenjoysinPressureCookerswhereitistheleaderwith40%

marketshare.TTKPenjoysmarketshareof20%inInductionCooktopsand

highsingle digits in rest of the KEA products. TTKP outsources most of its

KEAs.Moreover,theorganizedpressurecookermarketisclosertoduopoly

whereas KEA segment markets represent oligopolies. TTKP generates an

EBITDA margin of ~19% on inhouse manufacturing and ~12% on

outsourcedproducts.WebelievethecompanysmarginwillreduceasKEA

outgrowsrestofthesegments.

Returns Ratios to Decline Going Forward: TTKP has generated near 50%

ROEinthelastthreeyearsduetohigherassetturnoversandincreasedEBIT

Margin. Webelieve the ROE will decelerate to near 30% in FY16E due to

decreasedEBITMarginand lowerassetturnoversasthecompanyhasbeen

investingincapitalexpenditure.WebelievethatTTKPscapacityutilization

willpeakbyFY14E.InordertodrivesalesfurthertheCompanyhastohike

inhouse capacity or rely on outsourcing after FY14E. Both the options will

adverselyimpactTTKPscashflowsandreturnratiosfromFY15Eonwards.

Outlook&Valuation

RevenueandnetincomeofTTKPgrewby31%and57%CAGR,respectively

inFY0712period.WebelievethatTTKPstop andbottomlinestomaintain

25%CAGR

in

FY12

14E

period.

At

CMP

of

Rs.

3,787,

the

stock

trades

at

31.1x

and 24.4x of FY13E and FY14E EPS, respectively. Webelieve the stock is

expensive at current levels amid slower growth and expected lower return

ratios. We initiate coverage on TTKP with SELL recommendation and a

targetpriceofRs.3,173pershare,having16%downsidepotential.

KeyFinancials

Y/EMar(Rsmn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

NetSales 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168

EBIDTA 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259

NetProfit 485 843 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091

EPS(Rs) 42.8 74.5 100.1 121.6 155.5 184.7

PER(x) 88.5 50.8 37.8 31.1 24.4 20.5

EV/EBITDA(x) 54.8 33.8 24.0 19.3 15.3 13.0

ROE(%) 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35.0

Source: Com an & Karv Institutional Research

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TTKPrestige

Shareholdingpattern

Source:Bloomberg

SalesbyRegionFY12

Source:Company

Promoter/Maj

ority, 74.9

FIIs, 11.8 Banks/Fis/MFs, 3.4

Others, 0.9Public,9.0

South,62%West,15%

NorthandEast,20%

Exports,3%

CompanyBackground

TTKPrestige(TTKP)a57yearoldcompanyoperatesin

kitchen appliances industry. Its portfolio includes Pressure

Cookers, Pans, NonStick Cookware, Gas Stoves, Induction

Cooktops, Rice Cookers and other kitchen electrical

appliances.

TTKP has evolved from a single product and South India

dominant company to total kitchen appliances company

with panIndia presence. It has won many awards such as

SuperBrand,MasterBrandandStarSME.

TTKP has eight manufacturing facilities at Housur,

Coimbatore & Roorkee. The Company generated Rs. 11bn

andRs.1.1bninsalesandnetincome,respectivelyinFY12.

Itsdistributionnetworkincludes356PSKoutletsand30,000

retailoutlets

apart

from

institutions

such

as

HPCL

&

BPCL.

CompanyFinancialSnapshotProfit&loss

Rs.mn FY12 FY13E FY14E

Netrevenues 11,034 14,092 17,351

EBIDTA 1,768 2,198 2,776

Otherincome

31

16

16

Interest 103 163 139

Depreciation 62 108 150

ProfitBeforeTax 1,632 1,943 2,502

Provisionfortax 499 567 742

AdjustedNetProfit 1,134 1,377 1,760

ReportedNetProfit 1,134 1,377 1,760

ProfitandLossRatios

EBIDTAMargins(%) 16.0 15.6 16.0

PATMargins(%) 10.3 9.8 10.1

EV/EBIDTA(x) 24.0 19.3 15.3

PER(x) 37.8 31.1 24.4

DividendPayout

(%)

15.0

17.0

22.0

CashFlow


EBIT 1,705 2,090 2,625

(Inc)/Decinworkingcapital (181) (469) (334)

Cashflowfromoperations 1,525 1,621 2,291

Otherincome 31 16 16

Depreciation 49 108 150

Interestpaid (103) (163) (139)

Dividends

paid

(197) (272) (450)Taxpaid (499) (567) (742)

Netcashfromoperations 805 744 1,126

Capitalexpenditure (1,540) (1,100) (300)

FreeCashFlows (735) (356) 826

Inc/(Dec)inLTborrowing 154 353 (550)

Inc/(Dec)inSTborrowing 11 135 (160)

CashfromFinancialActivities 165 487 (710)

OpeningCash 535 223 286

ClosingCash 223 286 402

ChangeinCash (312) 63 116

BalanceSheet


Shareholdersfunds 2,851 3,956 5,266

TotalLoans 223 710

Deferredtaxliability 68

TotalLiabilities&Equity 3,142 4,666 5,266

Netblock 1,507 2,896 3,164

CapitalWIP 794 397 278

LT

loans

and

advances

97

138

123

Investments 4 4 4

Netcurrentassets 741 1,232 1,697

Deferredexpenditure 0

TotalAssets 3,142 4,666 5,266

BalanceSheetRatios

Fixedassetsturnoverratio

(x)11.5 6.4 5.7

ROCE(%) 46.0 37.9 37.2

ROE(%) 47.6 40.4 38.2

NetDebt/Equity(x) (0.00) 0.11 (0.08)

EV/Sales(x) 3.9 3.1 2.4

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TTKPrestige

PeerComparison

ThoughthebusinessmodelofTTKPrestige isnotstrictlycomparablewiththose

of Hawkins, Butterfly Gandhimati Appliances (BGA), Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) &

Havells, they operate in same space with different set of products. However, we

haveprovidedvaluationdataforotherconsumptionrelatedcompanies.

TTKP commands higher P/E multiples than Havells and BJEL, as the former

generates higher EBITDA margins, returns rates and topline growth. TTKPs

multiple premium will reduce in the medium to longterm as it generates more

revenue from Kitchen Electrical Appliances (KEA) segment, which consists of

majorplayerssuchasHavells,BJEL,VGuard,PanasonicandPhilips/Preeti.

A.MultiplesGreaterthanPeers

Currently,theTTKPP/EratioissimilartothatofPageIndustriesanddiscountto

Jubilant FoodWorks. However, we believe that TTKP may not get P/E ratios

similar to that of Page Industries andJubilant FoodWorks, as the shelflife of

TTKPsproducts

is

3

5

years,

while

the

life

spans

of

Page

and

Jubilant

products

areafewmonthsandafewhoursrespectively.

Exhibit2: PeerValuationTableCMP P/E(x) EPSGrowth(%) EBIDTAMargin(%) EV/EBIDTA(x) Price/Sales(x)

(Rs) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

TTKPrestige 3,787 31.1 24.4 21.4 27.8 15.6 16.0 19.3 15.3 3.04 2.47

BajajElectricals 201 15.6 11.9 9.3 30.5 7.8 8.4 8.1 6.8 0.56 0.49

HavellsIndia 621 17.6 14.9 19.1 18.4 10.5 10.9 11.0 9.4 1.07 0.98

OtherConsumptionBasedCompanies

PageIndustries* 3,207 31.3 24.4 27.0 28.3 20.2 20.3 19.6 15.2 4.12 3.23

JubilantFoodWorks* 1,299 54.6 38.8 45.8 40.6 18.8 19.2 27.5 19.9 5.90 4.35

Source:Bloomberg

&

Karvy

Institutional

Research

OurView:TheKEAsegmentismorecompetitiveasnosingleplayercommands

over20%marketshareinanyoftheproductsthattheyoperate,whereasTTKP

&Hawkinstogetherconstitute80%ofthemarketshareinpressurecookers.

B.ReturnstoDeclineduetoLowerAssetTurnoverandEBIT

Margin

TTKPhasgenerated~4555%ROEinthelastthreeyearsduetohigheroutsourcing

andinturnhigherassetturnover.

Exhibit3: DuPontAnalysisDuPont

Analysis

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E

FY14E FY15E FY16E

TaxBurden(%) 59.3 70.9 82.0 77.2 67.8 69.7 69.4 70.8 70.3 69.5 69.0

InterestBurden(%) 64.5 67.3 69.6 79.9 95.4 96.5 94.0 92.3 94.7 97.6 97.5

EBITMargin(%) 8.4 8.7 9.3 9.0 14.7 16.3 15.7 14.9 15.2 14.5 14.1

TotalAssetT/O 2.1 2.4 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4

FinancialLeverage 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

ROE(%) 15.0 23.0 28.0 29.2 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35.0 32.5

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchOurView:TTKPmaynotbeabletoenjoythesimilarassetturnoversdueto

recent capex and lower EBIT margin, which will lead to lower ROE, going

forward.

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TTKPrestige

RationaleforSELLRecommendation

Ourinvestmentthesisisbasedonfollowingpremises:

1.ImprovementinMarketSharetoTakeaBreather

2.Our

Distributor

Survey

Reveals

Substantial

Volume

Degrowth

across

Segments

3.CompetitiveAdvantageinPressureCookersmaynotbeextendedtoKEA

4.SixCylinderPolicymaynotHikeInductionCooktopSales

5.CapacityConstraintstoRecedeEBITDAMarginsfromFY15Eonwards

6.KitchenElectricalAppliancestoDragMargins

7.InternationalCollaborations

8.USPatentBoostExportofMicrowavePressureCookers

9.DistributionNetworkinnonSouthernIndianeedsImprovement

1.ImprovementinMarketSharetoTakeaBreather

Inorganized

pressure

cookers

segment,

the

market

share

of

TTK

Prestige

(TTKP)

has increasedby 8% in last five years. TTKP & Hawkins dominate this segment

with combined market share of 7580%. While the volume of TTKPs pressure

cookershasgrownby23%CAGR inFY0711,Hawkinsrecordedvolumegrowth

at 14% CAGR. TTKP has gained market share from Hawkins due to capacity

constraints at the latter due to issues relating to pollution and labor matters.

Hawkinscurrentlyrunsatacapacityutilizationof~45%duetotheaboveissues.

OurdistributorsurveyhasindicatedthatHawkinscouldnotmeetthedemandin

South India despite consistent demand from distributors and dealers. Hawkins

informed that it resolved the labor issuesby reaching an agreement with labor

union, but the Company is yet to resolve pollution issues raised by Punjab

PollutionControl

Board.

OurView:TTKPrestigewilllosesomemarketsharetoHawkinsoncethelatter

resolvesitspollutionissuesandincreasesproduction.

2. Our Distributor Survey Reveals Substantial Volume

DegrowthacrossSegments

We have surveyed TTKP distributors in major cities i.e. Chennai, Bangalore,

Hyderabad,NewDelhiandMumbaitogaugethegrowthratesofmajorproducts.

Chennai: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA hasbeenhigh

single

digits

and

high

teens

respectively.

Credit

terms

for

the

Pressure

CookersandKEAare015daysand3060daysrespectively.

Bangalore: The volume growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA hasbeenmidsingledigitsand10%,respectively.CredittermsforPressureCookersand

KEA are 1530 days and 3060 days respectively. It is also revealed that

intensifyingcompetitionleadstomargincompression.

Hyderabad: Thevolumegrowth rate inPressureCookers and KEAhasbeenmidsingledigitsandteensrespectively.CredittermsforPressureCookers&

KEAare07daysand3045daysrespectively.

New Delhi: The growth rate in Pressure Cookers and KEA hasbeen highteens.

Credit

terms

for

Pressure

Cookers

&

KEA

are

0

30

days

and

30

45

days,

respectively.

Mumbai: The credit terms for Pressure Cookers & KEA are 3060 days.Hawkins and Nirali are the leaders in Pressure Cookers and NonStick

Cookwarerespectively.

OurView:Thesurveyrevealsthatthe

volumegrowth

in

Pressure

Cookers

&

NonStickCookwaredeceleratedtohigh

singledigits,&thevolumegrowthinKEA

includinginductioncooktops

decreasedtoteens.

Indias Consumer Appliances

SectortoSustainDoubledigit

Growth

Indias consumption is poised to

grow at a faster pace in coming

years, driven by favourable

demographics and higher

disposable incomes. The domestic

consumer appliances sector is quite

attractivedue to theextraordinarily

low levels of penetration. We

believe that the macroeconomic

conditions would provide a strong

boost

to

the

consumer

appliancessector,goingforward.

PleaserefertoourThematicReport

Consumer Appliances: Rising

Affluence & Favourable

Demographics,dated12thApr12.

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TTKPrestige

A. Growth coolsoff in Induction Cooktops, Highest Growth Product: Our

surveyhasrevealedthatthevolumegrowthrateforInductionCooktopswhich

hasbeengrowingover100%inlastthreeyearsandcontributing~15%toTTKPs

totalrevenue inFY12hascooledoffto20%.Thesurveyhasalso indicatedthat

lackofpowersupplyandriseinpowercosthavereducedsalesofInductionCook

tops

tosome

extent.

Volume

growth

rates

in

the

rest

products

in

KEA

segment

havealsodeclinedtomidteens.

B. Relaxed Credit Terms in KEA Segment to Increase Debtors: We learnt that

TTKP provides 030 days credit on products i.e. Pressure Cookers & NonStick

Cookware. However, TTKP has relaxed credit days of 3060 on KEA, as the

Companyisnotthemarketleaderinthesegment.Moreover,TTKPprovides015

days of credit on Pressure Cookers in South India and 1530 days in nonSouth

India,wheretheHawkinsisthemarketleaderinPressureCookers.

3. Competitive Advantage in Pressure Cookers may not

beextended

to

KEA

Segment

Webelieve TTKP may notbe able to enjoy similar competitivebenefit in KEA

segment as it enjoys in Pressure Cooker segment, as it is the leader with 40%

market share in latter segment while competing with players i.e. Havells, Bajaj

Electricals,PanasonicandPreeti/Philipsintheformersegment.TTKPisamarket

leader in Induction Cooktops with 20% market share while its market share in

products in KEA segment is in highsingle digits. TTKP outsources most of its

KEAs, especially where it does not have technical expertise. Moreover, the

organized pressure cooker market is closer to duopoly whereas KEA segment

marketsrepresentoligopolies.

4.

SixCylinder

Policy

may

not

Aid

Induction

Cook

top

SalesGrowth

Government of India (GoI) has recently issued a policy statement that it would

providesixcylinderstoeachfamilyonsubsidizedpricesandremainingcylinders

willbesold at marketprices.Webelieve the implementationofthe above policy

may notboost induction cooktop sales to a great extent due to the following

reasons.

CongressPartyhasaskedstategovernments,whichareruledbytheirparty,toincreasenumberofsubsidizedcylindersfrom6to9.

TTK Prestige generates 62% of sales from South India, which is a powerdeficientregion.PercentageofNonSouthIndiasaleshasnotincreasedmuch

duringthelastthreeyears.

Power cuts are in the range of 13 hours during peak hours which is alsocooking time in Hyderabad and Chennai. TierII/III citiesexperience power

cuts in the range of 56 hours during peak hours. The situation will even

worseninsummers.

South Indias power supply deficit has increased to 16% in August 2012 asagainst4%inAugust2011.

PowersituationinSouthIndiamaynotbeimprovedinnexttwoyearsduetocoal supply issues and state governments have not increased power

generationcapacities

in

the

recent

past.

Power supply to South India from rest of the country is limitedby powertransmissionconstraints,whichcannotbeimproveduntilJanuary2014.

OurView:TTKPsgrowthinKEA

segmentwilldeclineto~30%inFY1215E

rom65%CAGRinFY0812.

OurView:TTKPsdebtorswillrise

significantlywiththeriseinrevenue

shareasapercentageoftotalsalesof

KEAsegmentandnonSouthIndia.

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TTKPrestige

ProspectiveInductioncooktopbuyersneedtobuyanewsetofutensilsalongwithinductioncooktops.

Exhibit4: PowerDeficitSituationinSouthIndiaPowerDeficit(%) Aug12 Aug11 AprAug12 AprAug11

AndhraPradesh 20.9 0.3 15.1 8.4

Karnataka 16.2 7.3 13.1 11.4

TamilNadu 14.0 4.4 14.6 11.3

Kerala 2.2 3.4 3.1 8.0

SouthernRegion 16.0 4.4 13.4 7.2

Source:MinistryofPower,GoI5.CapacityConstraintstoRecedeEBITDAMarginsfrom

FY15Eonwards

TTKPhasbeenoncapexdrivesinceFY11andspentRs.1.9bnuntilQ4FY12,while

the

Company

mulls

spending

another

Rs.

1.1

bn

in

FY13E

to

double

its

annual

nonstick cookware capacity to 12 mn pieces and increase the annual induction

cooktops capacityto1 mnpieces.Italsoplanstospend Rs.200mn inFY14Eas

maintenance capex. TTKP generates an EBITDA margin of ~19% on inhouse

manufacturedproductsand~12%onoutsourcedproducts.

OurView:TTKPscapacityutilizationwillpeakbyFY14E,asinitsdrivetoboost

sales ithas tohike inhousecapacityor relyonoutsourcingafterFY14E.While

the 1st option will lead to decreased free cash flows, increased debt levels,

depreciation and interest and the 2nd optionwill result in decreased EBITDA

margin.BoththeoptionswilladverselyimpactTTKPsPATmargins,cashflows,

returnratiosandvaluationsfromFY15Eonwards.

Exhibit5: Inhouse/OutsourcedmanufacturinginformationProductSegment Remarks

PressureCookers

&Pans

InhouseMfg:TTKPhasexpandedproductioncapacityto8mn,whichwebelieveissufficientuntilFY14E.The

CompanyhastoeitherincreasemfgcapacityoroutsourcemfgtomeetdemandfromFY15Eonwards

Nonstick

Cookware

Inhouse&OutsourcedMfgtillFY12:TTKPhasexpandedproductioncapacityto6mninFY12Eandwillbefurther

expandedto12mnbyFY13E.WebelievetheCompanyhastoeitherincreasemfgcapacityoroutsourcemfgtomeet

demandfromFY15Eonwards

GasStoves OutsourcedMfg:

KitchenElectrical

Appliances

OutsourcedMfgtillFY12:TTKPhasbuiltmfgfacilityforinductioncooktopsfor~1mnpieces,anditplanstooutsource

aportionofinductioncooktops.Otherproductsi.e.Mixers/Grinders, Juicers,and Kettleswillbeoutsourced

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit6: InstalledCapacity(mn)ProductSegment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E

PressureCookers 4.0 4.8 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

NonstickCookware 1.8 2.0 2.0 6.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

InductionCooktops NA NA NA NA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit7: SalesVolume(mn)ProductSegment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E



InductionCooktops NA NA NA 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearch

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TTKPrestige

Exhibit8: Production(mn)ProductSegment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E




Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit9: CapacityUtilization(%)ProductSegment FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E




Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit10:OutsourcingPercentage(%)Product

Segment

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Remarks

PressureCookers 2.1 9.4 21.2 NeedCapexinFY14E.

NonstickCookware 11.6 52.0 8.5 NeedCapexinFY15E.

InductionCooktops NA NA NA NA 33.9 49.2 60.9 69.9RecentCapexisnotgoodenoughfor100%in

housemanufacturingofinductioncooktops.

Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearchImpactofHigherCapex&OutsourcingonMargins:TTKPhastospendRs.33.5

bn in FY1415E to maintain 100% inhouse manufacturing in Pressure Cooker &

NonStickCookwaresegments.IthastoraiseRs.2.5bntomeetthecapexplan,but

interestonnewloancoupledwithhigherdepreciationwilldragitsPATmargins

by

80bps.

Moreover,

~45

50%

of

sales

have

to

be

outsourced

from

FY14

FY15E

onwards in case TTKP wont undertake the aforementioned capex. Webelieve

that the expected higher outsourcing will reduce TTKPs EBITDA & PAT

marginsby~100bpsand~70bps,respectively.

6.KitchenElectricalAppliancestoDragMargins

TTKP generatesan EBITDA marginof~19% on inhouse manufactured products

and ~12% on outsourced products. TTKPs sales in Kitchen Electrical Appliances

(KEA) segment have been outgrowing its rest segments and we believe the

Company will be able to continue the same in future. TTKPs outsourcing

percentagewouldincreaseafterFY14Easitdoesntmakemucheconomicalsense

toinvest

in

capacity

for

small

KEA

segment.

Exhibit11:RevenueContributionPercentageofeachSegmentRevenueContribution(%) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Comment

Pressurecookers 55 53 47 41 37 36 34 33 32 NeedscapexinFY14E

Nonstickcookware 16 15 17 20 20 19 19 19 19 NeedscapexinFY15E

GasStoves 10 10 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 Outsourced

KitchenElectricalAppliances 14 17 20 25 31 35 37 40 41Majorportionofinductioncooktopsandrestof

kitchenelectricalappliancesareoutsourced

Other 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Outsourced


OurView:TheexpectedEBITDAMof

16.0%in

FY14E

will

be

the

highest

margin

thatTTKPwillachievewithlatestcapex

andcurrenttrendofrawmaterialprices.

OurView:TTKPsoutsourcingpercentage

willincreasewiththeriseinsalesinKEA

segment.Higheroutsourcingwilldecrease

EBITDA

margins

of

the

company.

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TTKPrestige

7.InternationalCollaborations

TTKPhastiedupwithvariousMNCstointroducenewproductsinIndiathrough

cobrandingtoleverageitsdistributionnetwork.

Alliance with USbased World Kitchen: Through this alliance TTKP willintroduce

high

end

Tableware/Cookware

&

Storeware

with

Prestige

logo.

Alliance with Germanybased Schott AG: TTKP has launched gas stovesmade fromSchott tempered flatglassandan inductioncooktopwithglass

ceramiccooktops.

AlliancewithSwitzerlandbasedVestergaardFrandsonGroup:ThroughthisallianceTTKPwillmanufactureandmarketwaterfiltersacrossIndia.

Water Filter Market: Water Purifier market estimated to be Rs. 16 bn isdominatedbyplayers i.e.HindustanUnilever,KentHealthcare,TataChemicals

andEurekaForbes.Themarketissetfortoughcompetitionasthebiggiessuchas

Godrej,PanasonicandLGarealsogearinguptotakeontheexistingplayers.

8. US Patent to Boost Export of Microwave Pressure

CookersinFY13E

TTKPhas receivedUSpatent forMicrowavePressureCookers recentlyandhas

beenexportingthesametotheUS,Japan,theUK,Germany,France,China,Korea

andMiddleEast.ItManagementexpectstoincreaseexportquantityfrom0.17mn

inFY12to0.8mnpiecesinFY13E.

OurView: The rise in exportswill boost TTKPspressure cooker sales by 8%,while its overall sales would grow by 3% in FY13E. TTKPs exports as apercentageofsaleswillriseto6%inFY13Efrom3%onFY12.9. Distribution Network in nonSouth India needs

Improvement

TTKP has a total retail network of 30,000 outlets. It has multiple distribution

channels i.e. traditional retail outlets,modern trade formats, own retail outlets,

hyper/supermarketsandinstitutionssuchasHPCL,BPCLandmilitarycanteens.

Exhibit12:TTKPrestigeDistributionStructure

Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearchBrandedRetailOutlets:TTKPhasalsoincreaseditsownbrandedretailoutletsi.e.

PrestigeSmart

Kitchen

(PSK)

that

covers

21

states

and

179

towns

in

India.

The

numberofPSKoutletsincreasedto356inFY12from51inFY05.

OurView:ItwillbedifficultforTTKPtoainnotablemarketshareinwater

purifiersegmentamidintensecompetitionromthemarketleaders.

Salesbydistributionchannel

Y11


SalesbyregionFY12


Traditi

onal

Retail,

63%

Moder

n

Trade,

10%

Own

Retail,

15%

Institut

ions,

12%

South,

62%

West,

15%

North

and

East,

20%

Export

s,3%

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10

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

Exhibit13:NumberofPrestigeSmartKitchen(PSK)Outlets

Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearch

OurView:WhileTTKPhasstrongdistributionnetworkinSouth,itsdistribution

networkinnonSouthIndianeedsimprovement.ItsKEAsegmentcompeteswithmajorplayers i.e. Bajaj Electricals (BJEL) andHavells who having networks

consistingof55,000and45,000outlets.BJEL isspreadacross IndiaandHavells

presence is strong in Northern, Eastern and Southernparts.Hawkins, TTKPs

competitorinpressurecookers,hasdevelopeditsforteinWestandNorthIndia.

Karvyvs.ConsensusExhibit14:Karvyvs.Consensus

EPS SalesGrowth(%) EBITDAGrowth(%) NIGrowth(%) EBITDAMargin(%) NIMargin(%)

FY13E FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

FY13E FY14E

FY13E

FY14E

Karvy 121.6 155.5 27.7 23.1 24.4 26.3 21.4 27.8 15.6 16.0 9.8 10.1

Consensus* 128.4 166.8 30.3 26.1 23.9 28.5 28.4 30.2 15.4 15.7 10.1 10.5

Difference (6.8) (11.4) (2.6) (3.0) 0.5 (2.2) (7.0) (2.4) 0.2 0.3 (0.4) (0.3)

Source:Company& KarvyInstitutionalResearch,*Bloomberg

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

NumberofPSKOutlets

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September26,2012

TTKPrestige

KeyAssumptions&EstimatesExhibit15:KeyAssumptions&EstimatesKeyFinancials Estimates Growth(%)

Comments(Rsmn) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

RevenuebyProduct

Pressurecookers&Pans 3,169 4,132 5,124 6,046 7,134 30.4 24.0 18.0 18.0Market

leadership,

strong

brand

equity

and

exports

NonStickCookware 1,540 2,247 2,764 3,399 4,079 45.9 23.0 23.0 20.0Risingmiddleclass,strongbrandingtosustain

growth

GasStoves 808 1,008 1,160 1,334 1,467 24.7 15.0 15.0 10.0

KitchenAppliances 1,929 3,494 4,752 6,178 8,031 81.1 36.0 30.0 30.0 Slowdownininductioncooktops&KEA.

NewJVs 250 400 520 60.0 30.0 IntroductionofnewproductsfromJVs.

Others 266 280 288 297 306 5.5 3.0 3.0 3.0

NetRevenues 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168 44.5 27.7 23.1 22.0

EBITDA

EBITDA 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259 41.0 24.4 26.3 17.4 Withriseinoutsourcedmfg,margintodipby40

bpsinFY13E&riseby40bpsinFY14Ewithrise

ininhousemfg.EBITDA(%) 16.4 16.0 15.6 16.0 15.4

Depreciation

43

62

108

150

204

46.5

72.8

39.2

36.1

Otherincome 43 31 16 16 26 (28.4) (48.7) 63.2

EBIT 1,254 1,736 2,106 2,641 3,081 38.5 21.3 25.4 16.6

InterestExpense 44 103 163 139 75 133.7 57.3 (14.3) (46.5)InterestexpensewillriseasTTKPraisesdebtin

FY13Etomeetcapexrequirements.

AdjustedPBT 1,209 1,632 1,943 2,502 3,006 35.0 19.0 28.8 20.2

Tax 366 499 567 742 916 36.3 13.6 31.0 23.4

Taxrate 30.3 30.6 29.2 29.7 30.5

Reportednetprofit 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091 35.4 21.4 27.8 18.8

NetProfit(%) 11.0 10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9

CFO(a) 500 841 676 1,126 790

CFI(b) (212) (1,540) (1,100) (300) (400)TTKPwillspendRs.1.11bninFY13E;Itwill

resorttomaintenancecapexinFY14E

FCF(a+b) 288 (699) (424) 826 390 Cashproceedswillbeusedtorepaydebtand

investin

liquid

assets

CFF

(c)

(192)

387

487

(710)

(250)

TotalChangeinCash 96 (312) 63 116 140


KeyRisks

UpsideRisks:

DeclineinCommodityPricesamidStrongerINR:Anydecreaseinaluminumprices and stronger INR might increase the margins and profitability of the

Company.

SuccessofNewlylaunchedProducts:TTKPhastiedupwithvariousMNCsto introduce new products in India. Hence success of these newly launched

productswillbecatalystforTTKPsgrowth.

Significant Incremental Export Volume: TTKP has received US patent forMicrowave Pressure Cooker and hence any significant incremental rise in

exportvolumewillalsoboostprofitabilityoftheCompany.

DownsideRisks:

IntenseCompetition:IntensecompetitioninconsumerrelatedbusinessunitsmayimpactTTKPsprofitmargins,asthebarrierstoentryintheindustryare

low.

Extended Slowdown in Domestic Economy: Continued slow growth inIndiasGDPmightreduceTTKPsgrowthprospects.

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12

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

FinancialOverview

A. Lower Growth in KEA Segment to Drag Topline

Growth

TTKPs revenue grew by ~50% CAGR in the last two years led by Kitchen

ElectricalAppliances(KEA)withCAGRof83%,whilethesalesofInductionCook

topsquadrupled.TheKEAsegmenthasincreaseditsshareofrevenuesfrom20%

inFY10to31%inFY12.

Exhibit16:RevenueGrowthRates(%)

Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearchOurView:TTKPstoplinegrowthratewilldeclineto24%CAGRinFY1215E,as

thesalesofInductionCooktopsandotherappliancesdecreasetohighteens.

B.AssetTurnoverRatiotoDecreaseduetoCapex

TTKP has increased its Asset Turnover Ratio from 3.5 in FY09 to 4.3 in FY12

through high revenue growth, increased capacity utilization and outsourced

manufacturing.

Exhibit17:Revenue&AssetTurnover


Our

View:

The

Asset

Turnover

Ratio

will

decrease

to

3.5

by

FY14E

due

to

recent

and proposed capital investments in FY12 & FY13E and reduced reliance on

outsourcedmanufacturing.

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E

KitchenElectricalAppliances CompanyRevenueGrowth

4,013 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168

3.5

4.34.6

4.3

3.63.5

3.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Revenue AssetTurnover

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13

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

C.TTKPtoReachEBITDAMarginOverhanginFY14E

TTKPs EBITDA margin grewby 660bps to 16.4% in FY0911, while its margin

decreasedby 40bps in FY12 due to higher outsourcing and raw material prices.

TTKPsmarginislikelytodecreasefurtherby40bpsinFY13Eandriseby40bps

to16.0%inFY14Eduetotheongoingcapitalinvestments,whichwillincreasein

housemanufacturingandinturnthemargin.

Exhibit18:EBITDA&EBITDAMargin

Source:Company&KarvyInstitutionalResearchOurview:TTKPwillbeabletoreporthighestmargininFY14Ewiththeongoing

capitalinvestments,andtheCompanyneedstoinvest innewcapacitiestomeet

growing demands for Pressure Cookers & NonStick Cookware from FY15E

onwards.EBITDAMarginwilldecreasefromFY15EastheoutsourcingfromKEA

and/orPressure

Cooker

segments

&

Non

stick

Cookware

increase.

D.NetIncomeMargintoReduceinFY13E

TTKPsnetincomemargingrewby480bpsto10.3%inFY0912,whichislikelyto

declineby50bpsto9.8%inFY13EduetocompressioninEBITDAmargin,higher

depreciationandinterest.

Exhibit19:NetIncome&NetIncomeMargin

Source:Company

&

Karvy

Institutional

Research

393 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259

9.8

15.2

16.4 16.015.6

16.015.4

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500


EBITDA EBITDAMargin

224 524 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091

5.6

10.311.0

10.39.8 10.1

9.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


NetProft NetProfitMargin

Ourview:Thenetprofitmarginwill

declinefromFY15Eonwards,asthe

capacityutilization

will

peak

by

FY14E.

Initsdrivetoboostsales,TTKPhasto

hikeinhousecapacityorrelyon

outsourcingafterFY14E.Whilethe1st

optionwillleadtodecreasedfreecash

lows,increaseddebtlevels,depreciation

andinterestandthe2ndoptionwillresult

indecreasedEBITDAmargin.Boththe

optionswilladverselyimpactTTKPs

PATmargins,cashflows,returnratios

andvaluationsfromFY15Eonwards.

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14

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

E.ROCE&ROEtoDeclineduetoOngoingCapexand

LowerEBITMargin

TTKPs ROCE & ROE have improved due tohigh Asset Turnover and increased

EBIT margins. Webelieve ROCE & ROE will decline going forward due to on

goinginvestment

in

capex

to

reduce

reliance

on

outsourced

manufacturing.

Exhibit20:ReturnRatio(%)


OurView:TheneedforhighercapitalinvestmentandriseinsalesinKEAsegment

willreduceROCE&ROE,goingforward.

24.3

42.0

51.1

46.0

37.9 37.2 35.632.9

29.2

46.4

53.4

47.6

40.438.2

35.032.5

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E FY2016E

ROCE ROE

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15

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

Exhibit21:Profit&LossStatement(Rsmn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Netrevenues 5,079 7,636 11,034 14,092 17,351 21,168

%Growth 26.6 50.3 44.5 27.7 23.1 22

RawMaterial 2,686 4,409 6,644 8,484 10,228 12,374

Staff 393 530 730 960 1,217 1,527

OperatingExpenses 1,227 1,443 1,893 2,450 3,130 4,009

Operatingexpenses 4,306 6,382 9,267 11,894 14,575 17,909

EBIDTA 774 1,253 1,768 2,198 2,776 3,259

Growth(%) 97 62 41 24.4 26.3 17.4

EBIDTAmargin(%) 15.2 16.4 16 15.6 16 15.4

Otherincome 11 43 31 16 16 26

Interest 35 44 103 163 139 75

Depreciation 36 43 62 108 150 204

ProfitBeforeTax 714 1,209 1,632 1,943 2,502 3,006

Provisionfortax 230 366 499 567 742 916

Effectivetaxrate(%) 32.2 30.3 30.6 29.2 29.7 30.5

AdjustedNetProfit 485 843 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091

%Growth 116.5 74 34.4 21.4 27.8 18.8

ReportedNetProfit 524 838 1,134 1,377 1,760 2,091


Exhibit22:BalanceSheet(Rs.mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

Equitycapital 113 113 113 113 113 113

Reserves&surplus 1,128 1,801 2,738 3,843 5,152 6,563

Shareholdersfunds 1,242 1,915 2,851 3,956 5,266 6,676

ShorttermLoans 14 26 160

LongTermLoans 28 43 197 550

TotalLoans 28 58 223 710

Deferredtaxliability 31 33 68

TotalLiabilitiesandEquity 1,301 2,005 3,142 4,666 5,266 6,676

Grossblock 835 892 2,029 3,525 3,945 4,428

Depreciation 430 473 522 630 780 985

Netblock 405 419 1,507 2,896 3,164 3,443

CapitalWIP 235 391 794 397 278 194

Investments 4 4 4 4 4 4

LTLoansandAdvances 119 97 138 123 126

Inventory 613 1,050 1,749 2,216 2,651 3,415

Debtors 603 747 1,060 1,411 1,771 2,204

Cash&BankBalance 440 535 223 286 402 542

CurrentAssets 2,081 3,322 4,435 5,573 6,704 8,723

SundryCreditors 266 380 684 830 1,001 1,219

Othercurrentliabilities 1,158 1,869 3,010 3,511 4,005 4,595

CurrentLiabilities 1,424 2,250 3,694 4,341 5,007 5,814

Netcurrentassets 657 1,072 741 1,232 1,697 2,909

TotalAssets 1,301 2,005 3,142 4,666 5,266 6,676


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16

September26,2012

TTKPrestige

Exhibit23:CashFlowStatement(Rsmn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

EBIT 738 1,211 1,705 2,090 2,625 3,055

(Inc.)/Decinworkingcapital 159 217 181 469 334 825

Cashflowfromoperations 897 994 1,525 1,621 2,291 2,230

Otherincome

11 43 31 16 16 26

Depreciation 34 43 49 108 150 204

Interestpaid() 35 44 103 163 139 75

Taxpaid() 230 366 499 567 742 916

Dividendspaid() 132 164 197 272 450 680

DeferredTaxLiability 0 1 36 68

Extraordinaries 40 6

Netcashfromoperations 586 500 841 676 1,126 790

Capitalexpenditure() 79 212 1,540 1,100 300 400

Netcashaftercapex 507 288 699 424 826 390

Inc./(Dec.)inshorttermborrowing 14 11 135 160

Inc./(dec.)in

long

term

borrowing

179 15 154 353

550

Inc./(dec.) inborrowings 179 30 165 487 710

(Inc.)/Dec.ininvestments 222 222 250

Equityissue/(Buyback) 3 0

CashfromFinancialActivities 176 192 387 487 710 250

Openingcash 109 440 535 223 286 402

Closingcash 440 535 223 286 402 542

Changeincash 331 96 312 63 116 140

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit24:KeyRatios

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

RawMaterialCost/Sales(%) 52.9 57.7 60.2 60.2 58.9 58.5

ManpowerCost/Sales(%) 7.7 6.9 6.6 6.8 7 7.2

Operating&Othercost/Sales(%) 24.1 18.9 17.2 17.4 18 18.9

RevenueGrowth(%) 26.6 50.3 44.5 27.7 23.1 22

EBIDTAMargins(%) 15.2 16.4 16 15.6 16 15.4

NetIncomeMargins(%) 9.5 11 10.3 9.8 10.1 9.9

ROCE(%) 42 51.1 46 37.9 37.2 35.6

ROE(%) 46.4 53.4 47.6 40.4 38.2 35

Source:Company,KarvyInstitutionalResearchExhibit25:KeyRatios

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

EPS(Rs) 42.8 74.5 100.1 121.6 155.5 184.7

P/E(x) 88.5 50.8 37.8 31.1 24.4 20.5

BV(Rs) 109.7 169.2 251.9 349.5 465.2 589.8

P/BV(x) 34.5 22.4 15 10.8 8.1 6.4

EV/EBIDTA(x) 54.8 33.8 24 19.3 15.3 13

Fixedassetsturnoverratio(x) 13.3 18.5 11.5 6.4 5.7 6.4

Debt/Equity(x) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.18

EV/Sales(x)

8.4 5.6 3.9 3.1 2.4 2


7/31/2019 TTKPREST_20120926

17/18

InstitutionalEquitiesTeamRangachariMuralikrishnan

HeadInstitutionalEquities /

Research/Strategy+912261844301 [email protected]

ShridharIyer Head InstitutionalSales +912261844302 [email protected]

K.AnantRao Head SalesTrading&Derivatives +912261844303 [email protected]

UdayRaval

Karvy

Inc.

USA

+1

212

2674334

[email protected]

INSTITUTIONALRESEARCH

Analysts Industry/Sector DeskPhone EmailID

DwaipayanPoddar ChiefTechnicalStrategist +912261844372 [email protected]

HatimBroachwala,CFA Banking +912261844329 [email protected]

JagadishwarPasunoori,CFA,FRM MidCap +914044857912 [email protected]

ManojKumarManish DerivativesResearch +912261844327 [email protected]

MarutiKadam Automobiles/Metals&Mining +912261844326 [email protected]

MitulShah Automobiles +912261844312 [email protected]

NishithSanghvi Pharmaceuticals +912261844325 [email protected]

NaveenTrivedi FMCG +912261844316 [email protected]

PallavAgarwal Metals&Mining +912261844317 [email protected]

PareshJain BFSI +912261844324 [email protected]

ParikshitKandpal Infra/RealEstate/Strategy +912261844311 [email protected]

RahulSharma Pharmaceuticals +912261844310 [email protected]

RahulSingh MidCap +914044857912 [email protected]

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RupeshSankhe Power/CapitalGoods +912261844315 [email protected]

VinayNair Oil&Gas +912261844319 [email protected]

INSTITUTIONALSALES

DineshBajaj Sales +912261844341 [email protected]

DipeshJain Sales +912261844342 [email protected]

R.Sriram Sales +912261844340 [email protected]

ShabbirDahodwala Sales(USA) +12122674334 [email protected]

TejashGandhi Sales +912261844345 [email protected]

INSTITUTIONALSALESTRADING&DEALING

BhaveshGandhi InstitutionalDealer +912261844368/69 [email protected]

PrashantOza InstitutionalDealer +912261844370/71 [email protected]

ParagShah SalesTrader +912261844364/65 [email protected]

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Forfurtherenquiriespleasecontact:[email protected]

Tel:+912261844300

DisclosuresAppendix

Analystcertification

The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein

accurately reflecthis (their) personalview(s)about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s)and thatnopartof his (their)

compensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyor indirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontained inthis

researchreport.

Disclaimer

The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information

containedherein isbasedonouranalysisanduponsourcesthatweconsiderreliable.We,however,donotvouchforthe

accuracyor the completeness thereof. Thismaterial is for personal information and weare not responsible for any loss

incurredbasedupon it.The investmentsdiscussedor recommended in this reportmaynotbe suitable forall investors.

Investorsmust

make

their

own

investment

decisions

based

on

their

specific

investment

objectives

and

financial

position

and

usingsuchindependentadvice,astheybelievenecessary.Whileactinguponanyinformationoranalysismentionedinthis

report,investorsmaypleasenotethatneitherKarvynorKarvyStockBrokingnoranypersonconnectedwithanyassociate

companiesofKarvyacceptsanyliabilityarisingfromtheuseofthisinformationandviewsmentionedinthisdocument.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above

mentionedcompaniesfromtimetotime.EveryemployeeofKarvyanditsassociatecompaniesarerequiredtodisclosetheir

individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and

investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this

recommendationhaseitherbeendisplayedorhasbeenforwardedtoclientsofKarvy.Allemployeesarefurtherrestrictedto

place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. This report is intended for a restricted audience and we are not

solicitingany

action

based

on

it.

Neither

the

information

nor

any

opinion

expressed

herein

constitutes

an

offer

or

an

invitation to make an offer, tobuy or sell any securities, or any options, futures nor other derivatives related to such

securities.

KarvyStockBrokingLimitedInstitutionalEquities

OfficeNo.702,7thFloor,HallmarkBusinessPlaza,Opp.GurunanakHospital,Mumbai400051

RegdOff:46,RoadNo4,StreetNo1,BanjaraHills,Hyderabad500034.

KarvyStockBrokingResearchisalsoavailableon:Bloomberg KRVY,ThomsonPublisher&Reuters.

StockRatings AbsoluteReturnsBuy : >15%Hold : 515%Sell :

ttkprest_20120926

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