World Champions 1983, 1970, 1966

American League Champions 1983, 1979, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1966 American League East Division Champions 2014, 1997, 1983, 1979, 1974, 1973, 1971, 1970, 1969

American League Wild Card 2016, 2012, 1996

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Columns:

Tim Beckham's two drastically different months with Orioles short on long-term

indicators The Sun 10/10

At Arizona Fall League, Orioles infielder Steve Wilkerson has chance to present himself

as a prospect The Sun 10/9

Aberdeen offered to sell Ripken Stadium for $1 to IronBirds organization; mayor says 'no

deal' in place The Sun 10/9

Schmuck: Former Oriole Wieters in a better place for his fourth playoff run in six years

The Sun 10/7

Orioles will need to shore up defense after a less-than-stellar season in the field The Sun

10/7

Notes on Schoop, arbitation projections, Turner and Wieters MASNsports.com 10/10

Talking about Tillman MASNsports.com 10/9

Taking the rotation for another spin MASNsports.com 10/8

Talking about defense, RISP, averages vs. lefties and more MASNsports.com 10/7

Are the Orioles ready to turn over right field to Austin Hays? MASNsports.com 10/10

A few facts and a few opinions MASNsports.com 10/9

Orioles will reload, not rebuild MASNsports.com 10/8

What is the ceiling for Trey Mancini? MASNsports.com 10/7

Registration underway for Oct. 28 KidsPeace Trick-of-Trot 5K and one-mile walk at

Camden Yards MASNsports.com 10/6

Hank Aaron Award finalists announced ESPN.com 10/9

2017 Orioles Roster Review, Part One: The Replaceable Position Players

PressBoxOnline.com 10/9

What Was Wrong With Orioles Slugger Chris Davis In 2017? PressBoxOnline.com 10/6

Delving into 2018 arbitration salary projections BaltimoreBaseball.com 10/10

A final look at WAR and the 2017 Orioles BaltimoreBaseball.com 10/6

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-tim-beckham-analytics-

20171010-story.html

Tim Beckham's two drastically different months with

Orioles short on long-term indicators

By Jon Meoli / The Baltimore Sun

October 10, 2017

Orioles shortstop Tim Beckham's two months with the club after his July 31 trade from the

Tampa Bay Rays were vastly different in terms of his production, with his torrid start in August

cooling considerably in September.

Overall, however, his .306/.348/.523 batting line with 10 home runs since from Aug. 1 represents

a marked improvement over what he produced over four spotty seasons with the Rays.

What the Orioles will hope for, going forward, is that his production is closer to his 1.062 OPS in

August than the .603 OPS he posted in September. Examining the batted ball data from those

two months doesn't add much clarity to that, but does provide a glimpse into Beckham's unique

offensive profile.

In August, his hard contact rate was 34.3 percent, according to FanGraphs, with his soft contact

rate at 18.6 percent. Per BaseballSavant.com, he had an 88.1 mph average exit velocity and an

average launch angle at 9.9 degrees, which produced a 17.6 percent home run/fly ball rate and an

otherworldly .458 batting average on balls in play.

All that added together means a hitter who not only consistently made quality contact, but also

got fortunate in finding gaps, and by virtue of his 17.6 percent strikeout rate, struck out far less

frequently than his career rate. Essentially, Beckham spent all of August making quality contact

and being rewarded for it. That stopped being the case in September.

He struck out 32.7 percent of the time — much more in line with his career 29.7 percent rate —

and while his average exit velocity was relatively stable at 87.7 mph, his ground ball rate spiked

to 56.4 percent. So even with another low soft contact rate at 10.5 percent, and an increase in his

home run/fly ball rate to 26.7 percent, his .226 batting average on balls in play meant he wasn't

rewarded often for the contact he did make.

Once the calendar turned, Beckham reverted into the worst version of himself, with issues

making contact and too many balls on the ground when he did connect, even if he was hitting the

ball hard as frequently as in August.

Considering this season represented more than half of Beckham's major league plate appearances

in his career, it's hard to really establish a baseline for which is more in line with what he's

expected to do. While he does frequently hit the ball hard and has good speed, his career .344

BABIP could be sustainable, and means more months like August could come on that front.

But put all those rate stats together in his time with the Orioles and you'll still have a player who

was an above-average offensive player. Though he's older at this stage in his career, the volatility

of these two months almost brings to mind earlier versions of his teammate, second

baseman Jonathan Schoop, who before this season would end up with strong numbers at the end

of the year but would have prolonged lulls between extreme highs.

Schoop frequently credited hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh with changing that and raising his

overall level of at-bats over a six-month season. Perhaps he can do the same with Beckham and

bring an athletic free-swinger with a quick bat into a more consistent routine so that there are

more months like August than September for Beckham.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-steve-wilkerson-afl-20171009-

story.html

At Arizona Fall League, Orioles infielder Steve Wilkerson

has chance to present himself as a prospect

By Jon Meoli / The Baltimore Sun

October 9, 2017

Playing alongside the big-name prospects at Double-A Bowie this year means Orioles infield

prospect Steve Wilkerson will be used to the lack of fanfare about his assignment to the Arizona

Fall League.

Two of the seven players he's heading west with — left-hander Tanner Scott and

outfielder Anthony Santander — ended the year in the majors, while two others — third baseman

Ryan Mountcastle and left-hander Keegan Akin — were part of the team's preseason top

prospect lists.

Yet Wilkerson, the 25-year-old infielder who broke out in 2016, has just as good a chance of

beginning next season in the majors as any of them. And he's heading west understanding that.

"I have a pretty good idea, I think, of what to expect out there," Wilkerson said at the end of the

Bowie season. "The talent level is second-to-none, and the eyes you get to play in front of are

some of the top dogs. That's a big deal, and I'm looking forward to it."

For Wilkerson, who played himself onto the major league radar as a utility player this year and is

eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, the assignment is particularly important. The team's

hope for him will be that he can continue his breakout 2017 season, which saw him hit

.305/.375/.423 with eight home runs and 23 doubles between High-A Frederick and Bowie. The

2014 eighth-round pick was coming off a down season at Frederick, but turned it around this

year.

"Steve is so versatile," Bowie manager Gary Kendall said. "He brings a lot of things to the table.

He's a good runner, and I think going out to the Fall League is going to be really good for him.

He's going to help the manager as a guy who can play multiple positions, but [get] the at-bats

that maybe he was missing the later part of this season. Getting Ryan Mountcastle kind of took

him off the field at third base. But he's an exciting player. He makes plays. He can get a bunt

down. He's a good runner. He just brings so much to the table, and I think that his future looks

really good."

The sporadic playing time available to Wilkerson down the stretch was part of why he's being

sent for the extra games in Arizona. He played all four infield positions and right field over the

course of the season, but when Mountcastle was promoted to Bowie and moved to third base at

the end of the season and infielder Ryan Flaherty spent three weeks rehabbing at Bowie, innings

dried up for Wilkerson.

He saw, however, that not having a set position can be better than the alternative, and he credits

the Orioles for coaxing that out of him.

"It's a thing they've brought out of me more so than anything else," he said. "I knew I always had

the ability to jump around and play different positions, but I never really had the chance to do it.

This year, down in Frederick, I got the chance to play a little third base, play a little first, play a

little short. I made my debut in the outfield as well. So it was a really good opportunity to be able

to jump around and play different positions this year, and it's been fun. It keeps things fresh and

presents new challenges."

The audiences full of decision-makers and rosters full of top competitors will give Wilkerson a

chance to show he can handle that on a bigger stage. His value to the Orioles next year might be

higher than anyone else's because of Flaherty's pending free agency and the lack of infield

options in the system. That means that depending on the looks Wilkerson gives this month, he

could be added to the 40-man roster to ensure he's still in the system next spring, or the Orioles

could risk it and leave him exposed to the Rule 5 draft. That's an office-level decision, though,

and on the field, Kendall believes there's clear tasks for Wilkerson to reach the next level.

"There's things that he needs to do in his development — maintain his strength, for one, and just

kind of work on his craft," Kendall said. "Know what kind of player he is. He's a guy that bunts

very well, I'd like to see him incorporate that some into his offense more when given the

opportunity, and a guy that hits line drives. I'd like to see him keep that ball out of the air a lot

and hit more level swing and create backspin and hit some line drives. But [director of player

development Brian Graham], when he sent him here, told us what kind of player he was. We

knew him a little bit from spring training. We wouldn't be [in the playoffs] without him."

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-ripken-stadium-aberdeen-20171009-story.html

Aberdeen offered to sell Ripken Stadium for $1 to IronBirds

organization; mayor says 'no deal' in place

By Jeff Barker / The Baltimore Sun

October 9, 2017

Aberdeen Mayor Patrick McGrady said Monday “there is no deal” in place for the city to

sell Ripken Stadium to the organization that manages business affairs for the Aberdeen

IronBirds.

On Friday, the minor-league baseball team disclosed the city proposed selling the 6,300-seat

stadium to Tufton Professional Baseball, which manages the team acquired in 2002 by Orioles

icon Cal Ripken Jr. and his brother, Billy Ripken.

“Tufton is not interested in purchasing the stadium,” the team said in a letter Friday to the mayor

and City Council. “Only four of 159 affiliated professional minor league baseball clubs own their

facilities, none of which are in the State of Maryland.”

McGrady confirmed the offer Monday afternoon without elaborating on its terms.

“The city has made an offer to sell the stadium to Tufton Professional Baseball,” he said. “As of

today, there is no deal to sell the stadium to the tenant.”

On Monday night, the mayor and several council members provided more detail. In an open

letter to the city, they said the city offered to sell the stadium for $1, effectively waive the first

five years of city government property taxes and have Aberdeen assume the remaining debt

service.

“Every member of this Council felt that over the long run providing Tufton with the ability to

own and manage the stadium would outweigh these expenses,” the letter said.

It said Tufton representatives "declined our offer.”

McGrady has said the stadium is underutilized — the IronBirds play 38 home games — and that

more could be done to attract revenue-generating gatherings. The city has considered whether a

professional management organization could better handle the task.

Day-to-day stadium maintenance and bookings are Tufton’s responsibility, but large capital

projects such as structural repairs fall to the city, which continues to pay the debt service of

$600,000 a year.

McGrady, 31, has called the stadium a “non-performing asset” and said he is seeking "financial

relief” for Aberdeen citizens.

“We appreciate their presence but the cost of ownership is greater than the revenue generated for

the city by owning the facility," the mayor said last week.

The stadium hosts proms, weddings, charity fundraisers and other events. In 2015, the Ripkens

signed a title sponsor — Leidos, a large national security contractor — and the facility was

renamed “Leidos Field at Ripken Stadium.”

The IronBirds, the Orioles' Class A New York-Penn League short-season affiliate, draw an

average of about 4,000 fans per game. "Birdland begins in Aberdeen" is a team promotional

slogan, referring to its place among the Orioles’ farm teams.

But Ripken Jr., 57, a Hall of Famer and one of the Orioles’ greatest players ever, is locked in a

dispute with officials of Aberdeen, his hometown, over who should manage non-baseball events

at the stadium.

Under a 2013 agreement, Tufton keeps the revenue from non-IronBirds bookings and pays the

city an annual licensing fee. That pact is due to expire Dec. 31 and the parties have been unable

to agree on an extension. If the deal lapses, control of non-baseball events at the stadium will

revert back to the city.

McGrady said Aberdeen isn’t looking to take over event management.

“No city is good at managing public facilities like this. It’s a business, and government is not a

business,” he said Friday.

Rather, the mayor said, he is looking to strike a deal with the Ripkens that would provide the city

with a “more equitable’ cost-sharing agreement with the club.

In an interview last week, Ripken expressed frustration with the negotiations. He said the city

has not stuck to the ”simple issue” of discussing a license agreement and has instead made a

series of additional stadium-related proposals.

Those include charging a proposed 50-cent-per-ticket “facility fee” that would be dedicated to

stadium maintenance.

Team management has rejected the new fee.

“That would have a damning effect on our business operation,” said Matt Slatus, the IronBirds’

general manager.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-matt-wieters-is-in-a-better-place-20171007-

story.html

Schmuck: Former Oriole Wieters in a better place for his

fourth playoff run in six years

By Peter Schmuck / The Baltimore Sun

October 7, 2017

Former Orioles catcher Matt Wieters helped guide Washington Nationals star Stephen

Strasburg through a terrific performance in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on

Friday night.

The Nats offense didn’t cooperate and the Chicago Cubs took advantage of a couple of unearned

runs to open the playoffs with a victory, but Strasburg took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and

set a club postseason strikeout record.

Just a hunch, but you’d have to guess that Wieters hasn’t been waxing nostalgic for those

halcyon days trying to squeeze a win out of Ubaldo Jiménez.

Wieters settled in quickly with a star-studded Nats rotation that also features two-time Cy Young

Award winner Max Scherzer, 15-win left-hander Gio González and solid veteran Tanner Roark.

And he’s catching in the playoffs for the fourth time in the past six years while his former team

is trying to figure out how to bounce back from a late-season collapse that dragged it to its first

losing season since 2011.

Obviously, Wieters left Baltimore on good terms and wishes the Orioles the best in the future,

but he clearly is right where he wants to be.

“Yeah, you want to play on winning teams and give yourself a chance,” Wieters said. “The more

chances you get to get in the playoffs, the better chance you have to reach the ultimate goal and

win a ring.”

This year, the playoffs never seemed to be in doubt for the Nats with four starters winning at

least 13 games and two No. 5 guys who combined to win in double digits. The Orioles,

meanwhile, had one starter (Dylan Bundy) with as many as 13 victories and did not have a single

starter with an ERA under 4.24.

“It’s fun to be able to mix and match pitches and Stras was able to throw any pitch he wanted to

at any time [on Friday],” Wieters said, “but really the whole staff has been a staff that can do

things that may not be conventional. But with their stuff and their ability, it will work out.”

Wieters is a humble guy and he’ll be the first to tell you that the Nats rotation put up some pretty

good numbers before he got to Washington. But González, the Nats’ Game 2 starter in the

NLDS, gushed over Wieters’ preparation and ability to call a game.

“As far as what Matt has been doing, he's been great,” González said. “He's a big strike zone.

He's hard to miss. He has a good game plan every time he goes out there. And the same thing

with [pitching coach Mike Maddux] — we sit down and go over the strategy of what we have to

do and everything. It's just putting some great minds together and getting going. I'm just the guy

who throws the baseball. The great minds are the ones behind the plate and the one in the dugout.

“Wieters has been a huge help to my success this year. I do not take anything away from what

he's done and how great he's been. Again, I'm not the only one that's had great success. Our

entire rotation and even guys in the bullpen, dealing with him and getting to pitch to him, it's

been incredible.”

Wieters chuckled at that characterization after Friday night’s game.

“I think when you’re Gio and you have a great breaking ball, a great changeup and a fastball you

can locate, it can make any catcher seem like he prepares well and is a smart catcher,” the 31-

year-old Wieters said, “so I’m not going to take all that credit, that’s for sure.”

It’s impossible to say with any certainty whether the Orioles would have had a better season with

Wieters behind the plate for most games instead of Welington Castillo. Regardless of who had

been catching, the Orioles would have been at a talent deficit in their rotation to almost every

other team in either league.

From an offensive standpoint, the advantage went solidly to the Orioles. Wieters batted a career-

low .225 and combined with backup José Lobaton to hit 14 homers and drive in 63 runs. Castillo

batted .282 and combined with Caleb Joseph to be one of the most productive catching duos in

the game with 28 homers and 81 RBIs.

Still, Wieters adapted quickly to a new pitching staff and a new league in which the strategic

aspects of the game presented a brand new set of challenges for a guy who had played his entire

career in the American League.

“It’s definitely different,” he said. “You have to be able to maneuver a lineup a little bit more in

the American League, but once you get to the playoffs every lineup is so deep it has an American

League feel. The pitcher can be pinch-hit for at any time, so you kind of pitch a little bit more

like an American League style in the playoffs then during the regular season.”

It’s possible that Wieters could end up back in the AL next season if he doesn’t pick up his $10.5

million player option in 2018, after he signed with the Nats during spring training. But — with

his team scrambling to get past the Cubs in the first full round of the playoffs — that’s obviously

a story for another day.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-defense-20171006-story.html

Orioles will need to shore up defense after a less-than-stellar

season in the field

By Jon Meoli / The Baltimore Sun

October 7, 2017

Behind a pitching staff whose 25,199 pitches this year were the most in baseball,

the Orioles defense is plenty taxed by the sheer amount of work a rotation with a middling

strikeout rate and some frustratingly long innings provided them.

And as the season wore down, manager Buck Showalter made it clear that the defense — in

some cases individually, but mostly as a whole — wasn't up to the level that had helped the

Orioles succeed in recent years.

"Obviously, we've got to improve on the starting pitching," Showalter said last month. "That falls

under Captain Obvious, and I think we've taken a step back defensively, really, the last year or

two at some places. I think we need to get that back in order — especially with a pitching staff

that didn't strike out that many people. That's not going to change overnight. That's something

we were really good at, and I thought it kept us from playing a home game in the playoffs last

year.

"I think we've dropped our guard a bit defensively. I really do. We try to make a point of

emphasis, and I think we've kind of lowered our standards in a couple of areas."

As a team, the Orioles tied for 20th in baseball with -17 defensive runs saved, according to

FanGraphs. While that's better than last year's -25, the majority of the Orioles’ 2016 problems

came in an outfield that dragged the whole operation down with a league-worst -51 DRS. This

year, the outfield was responsible for -15 DRS, meaning everywhere else fell off rather

significantly.

In the infield, first baseman Chris Davis went from eight DRS in 2016 to -5 in 2017. Second

baseman Jonathan Schoop improved slightly from -1 to two DRS this year. But third baseman

Manny Machado, who contributed 16 DRS last year between third base and shortstop, was down

to six this season.

Where it was most noticeable in the infield, though, was shortstop, where veteran J.J. Hardy and

Machado combined to save nine runs last season. Hardy had another long injury absence this

year, and was replaced by Paul Janish, Rubén Tejada, and Tim Beckham. The position ended up

with -5 DRS.

"I'm not talking about [individuals]," Showalter said. "I'm talking about us as a group.

Understand that we have more balls put in play than other teams do. We have more opportunities

to make miscues because there are more balls put in play against us. So there's constantly balls

flying around."

While the opportunity for more balls is true with the league's most pitches, the Orioles actually

had 4,421 balls in play this year, according to Statcast data from BaseballSavant.com. That was

the sixth most in baseball, but their 17.54 percent of balls in play ranks 17th in the game.

Showalter made a point, however, of singling out the corner outfield spots, which got plenty of

attention in spring training when center fielder Adam Jones called for more athleticism and speed

there.

With Mark Trumbo shifting from a majority-right field role and being replaced primarily by Seth

Smith and Joey Rickard, right field contributed only -1 DRS this year, while left field, manned

by Trey Mancini and Rickard instead of Hyun Soo Kim and Rickard, also improved from -21 to -

1.

Jones ended up being poorly rated by most fielding metrics for a second straight year despite

moving his starting position deeper into center field at the front office's request. He went from -

10 to -12 DRS in the process.

Even with that, Jones believes his point still stands from the winter.

"Last offseason, I wanted more outfielders," Jones said. "Everybody was saying, ‘We need

pitching.’ Well, you need to have speed in the outfield to be able to cover the pitching. I just

wanted improvements in the outfield. I think we’ve played a really good outfield this year. Seth

Smith has done a lot more than I could expect. Joey’s been fine out there. Obviously, Trey’s

right behind Schoop on our team for MVP. He’s been unbelievable with the defense, a first

baseman by trade and then going to the outfield in the major leagues and learned on the fly. He’s

done a tremendous job.

"But what I was asking for was improvements in the defense. They want to say I’m doing this,

I’m not good at this. Well, I think if you improve the people around me, I can improve myself. I

don’t know if we saw eye to eye early on that, but I think the message was across, I think the

message was loud and clear once the season started and you see how play went."

Jones acknowledged that some reinforcements are on the way on that front, saying of rookie

Austin Hays, who has the inside line toward next year's starting right field job, "I like what he

does defensively." He also mentioned Double-A Bowie outfielder Cedric Mullins, whose season

was derailed by two hamstring injuries, as another athletic young outfielder.

Even so, those positions improved naturally this year. There are bigger concerns that might not

be trending upward.

Between the physical maturation of Machado and Schoop in the infield, the perceived defensive

drop at shortstop, and the lack of emphasis on defense at the corner outfield spots in recent years,

there's plenty to wonder just how much better the Orioles can get on that front next season.

"One of the things we talked about when we got here is we can make a difference by putting a

real emphasis on defense in the corners of the outfield, and obviously everywhere else,"

Showalter said. "I just feel like we've gotten away from that a little bit. ... That's one of the things

we talked about this spring, too. There's just so much some guys can do physically, so far you

can take some of them. Some things, you have to come with. You have to bring it with you."

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/10/notes-on-schoop-arbitation-projections-

turner-and-wieters.html

Notes on Schoop, arbitation projections, Turner and Wieters

By Roch Kubatko / MASNsports.com

October 10, 2017

More recognition has come to Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop. He can’t avoid it. A

breakthrough season tends to attract the attention.

Schoop learned yesterday that he’s the Orioles’ nominee for the 2017 Hank Aaron Award,

presented to the top offensive performer in each league.

The award was established in 1999. The Red Sox’s David Ortiz and Cubs’ Kris Bryant won it

last year.

Schoop appeared in 160 games this season and batted .293/.338/.503 with 35 doubles, 32 home

runs and 105 RBIs. He posted a 5.1 WAR and 4.9 oWAR that easily exceeded his previous

totals.

Schoop was selected to his first All-Star team as the club’s lone representative. He also was

named Most Valuable Oriole by members of the media who cover the team on a regular basis.

Aaron chose a panel of Hall of Famers to assist in determining the winners, which will be

announced during the World Series. They include Eddie Murray, Roberto Alomar, Johnny

Bench, Craig Biggio, Ken Griffey Jr. and Robin Yount.

Fans can vote for their American and National League selections online at MLB.com and the 30

club sites through Oct. 13.

Here are the nominees:

American League:

Orioles: Jonathan Schoop

Red Sox: Mookie Betts

White Sox: José Abreu

Indians: José Ramírez

Tigers: Nicholas Castellanos

Astros: Jose Altuve

Royals: Eric Hosmer

Angels: Mike Trout

Twins: Brian Dozier

Yankees: Aaron Judge

Athletics: Khris Davis

Mariners: Nelson Cruz

Rays: Logan Morrison

Rangers: Elvis Andrus

Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson

National League:

Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt

Braves: Freddie Freeman

Cubs: Anthony Rizzo

Reds: Joey Votto

Rockies: Charlie Blackmon

Dodgers: Cody Bellinger

Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton

Brewers: Travis Shaw

Mets: Michael Conforto

Phillies: Odúbel Herrera

Pirates: Andrew McCutchen

Padres: Jose Pirela

Giants: Buster Posey

Cardinals: Tommy Pham

Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman

* MLBTradeRumors.com’s Matt Swartz posted his annual salary arbitration projections for

every team. It isn’t an exact science, but he’s good with the ballpark figures, so to speak.

Swartz has Zach Britton making a modest climb from $11.4 million this season to $12.2 million

in 2018. Two trips to the disabled list and a drop from 47 saves to 15 is holding down his salary.

Not that Britton will need to borrow money. It’s just a figure that falls short of expectations

going into the season.

The Orioles won’t non-tender Britton despite their aversion to spending big on a closer, and they

seem intent on resisting trade overtures. Executive vice president Dan Duquette stated before the

final game that he “hoped” Britton and third baseman Manny Machado would be on the opening

day roster.

“We like those guys,” Duquette said. “They’ve had good careers with the Orioles and we’re

planning on having them on the club. We’re building a club with them on it. And we’ll see where

it takes us.”

Swartz projects that Machado will receive a raise from $11.5 million to $17.3 million before

eligible for free agency. The Orioles also will be shelling out $17 million to Chris Davis and

$12.5 million to Mark Trumbo.

Schoop’s salary is projected to increase from $3.475 million to $9.1 million. He figured to get a

big boost after putting up the best numbers of his career.

Kevin Gausman’s salary is projected to rise from $3.45 million to $6.8 million, Brad

Brach’ssalary from $3.05 million to $5.2 million, Tim Beckham’s salary from $885,000 to $3.1

million and Caleb Joseph’s salary from $700,000 to $1.4 million.

Beckham possesses three more years of arbitration eligibility after qualifying last winter as a

Super Two.

Brach beat the Orioles in arbitration in February after they countered at $2.525 million - only

their second loss in 13 hearings. Joseph sought $1 million and lost.

* The playoffs provide another reminder that Justin Turner used to be in the Orioles organization

before they designated him for assignment in May 2010 and lost him to the Mets on a waiver

claim.

How many fans remember which player forced Turner off the roster? I’ll give you a few

seconds. Resist reading the next paragraph.

Infielder Scott Moore had his contract selected from Triple-A Norfolk and Turner was

designated. Moore hit .220/.266/.355 in parts of three seasons with the Orioles and hasn’t played

in the majors since 2012 with the Astros. Turner didn’t become a star until the Dodgers signed

him in 2014, so the Mets probably have their own stories.

The Orioles recalled Turner in April 2010 while putting Brian Roberts on the disabled list with a

strained abdominal muscle. Turner went 11-for-32 (.344) with a home run and seven RBIs in 16

spring training games, but was noticed more for his versatility, hustle and red hair (no beard).

Turner got a few brief looks from the Orioles, going 3-for-18 in 2009 and 0-for-9 in 2010. He

backed up at third base, second base and shortstop. Manager Dave Trembley liked him, but no

one regarded him as a top prospect.

Since I’m dragging you down memory lane, does anyone remember how the Orioles acquired

Moore on Aug. 31, 2007?

The Cubs traded Moore and reliever Rocky Cherry to the Orioles for starter Steve Trachsel, who

worked so slowly that Turner could have grown his beard over the course of a nine-inning game.

* The Cubs took a 2-1 series lead over the Nationals last night, and the game ended with Adam

Lind standing on deck to bat for Matt Wieters.

It got me to wondering how often manager Buck Showalter pinch-hit for Wieters.

Wieters was 0-for-3 with a strikeout last night and is 0-for-8 in the series after batting

.225/.288/.344 with 10 home runs and 52 RBIs in 123 regular season games.

Wade Davis retired the side in order in the ninth inning to record the save in a 2-1 victory.

Wieters is 10-for-27 (.370) with three doubles lifetime against him. Lind is 6-for-22 (.273) with a

home run.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/10/talking-about-tillman-1.html

Talking about Tillman

By Roch Kubatko / MASNsports.com

October 9, 2017

If I decide to rank the frequency of certain questions directed at me, especially in radio

interviews, anything pertaining to Chris Tillman is bound to be near the top of the list.

What happened to Tillman? What was wrong with Tillman?

I can offer theories and repeat how Tillman kept insisting that the condition of his right shoulder

wasn’t an issue. He was fine physically. It seemed to be more mechanical.

If it happened to be something simple, Tillman probably would have been able to correct it while

working with pitching coach Roger McDowell and bullpen coach Alan Mills.

In his final appearance of the season, and perhaps as an Oriole, Tillman was charged with three

runs in two innings against the Rays at Tropicana Field. Two of the runs scored after

rookie Jimmy Yacabonis replaced him, but he walked three batters and hit one.

Why couldn’t Tillman get back to his old form?

“You know, that’s a very good question because that’s what we’re paid to do,” said manager

Buck Showalter. “We’re paid to figure those things out.”

And Tillman is paid to get outs. It just didn’t happen with the usual frequency.

“I know what I think and I feel very strongly about it, but it would be something that doesn’t

really need to be out there publicly the way that ...” Showalter said.

“We’re going to try to fix it if Chris is back with us next year. A lot of it’s got to do with his

offseason and what happens and what he wasn’t able to do this past offseason and what works

and what doesn’t. You’ve got to figure out whether this is a trend that’s going to continue or

whether it’s something that you can fix in the offseason.”

Not getting the expected results from Tillman and closer Zach Britton contributed mightily to

the Orioles’ tumble from playoff team to last place. They somehow made a run at the second

wild card before losing 19 of their last 23 games.

Everyone has their tales of woe, of course. No one is feeling sorry for the Orioles.

“I’ll let other people weigh in on that, the excuses, whether it’s (J.J.) Hardy being out or whether

this guy’s out or whoever’s out,” Showalter said. “I’ll let other people. I’m not in the business of

saying, ‘If this didn’t happen,’ because something else is going to happen next year. It’s part of,

what are your what ifs?

“I knew with the offseason that Chris had to have that there was going to be a challenge for him

this year. And with the amount of wear and tear from a mental and emotional and physical thing

that the possibility with Zach is always there. And you’ve always got to say, ‘what if?’

“You don’t want to assume because he saved an historical amount of games in that period

consecutively that it’s going to continue the next year. You make a lot of mistakes as a manager

and front office people if you say the exact same things that happened one year are going to

happen (again), good and bad. And you can be surprised by them. So, I’ve never really been

surprised by things like that because you know how fragile this all is.”

Tillman registered only one win, in his first outing on May 7, to stay tied with Sidney Ponson for

12th place on the club’s all-time list with 73.

Left-handers are hitting .257 against Tillman in his career, but they produced a slash line of

.329/.458/.543 this season. The OBP was the highest in the majors.

Opponents hit .351 with 13 home runs against Tillman the first time through the order, the third-

highest average in the majors.

I’ll repeat that I’d be fine with the Orioles re-signing Tillman for one year, if he’s willing, and

counting on a normal winter leading to a healthy and normal spring training. He could be a

bargain. You just don’t make his return the big signing of the offseason or pencil him in as the

opening day starter.

The Orioles aren’t going to spend on Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. They’ll have to get creative

again to fill out their rotation.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/10/taking-the-rotation-for-another-spin-5.html

Taking the rotation for another spin

By Roch Kubatko / MASNsports.com

October 8, 2017

While waiting to find out which playoff games are airing on Animal Planet and Cartoon Network

...

We can spend the bulk of the winter talking about the Orioles rotation and how they can find

upgrades without breaking the bank or trading away every prospect in the farm system.

Spoiler alert: There are no easy answers.

They really could use a proven ace who doesn’t come with disclaimers such as, “Needs to take

the next step.” But can anyone reasonably expect them to get into a bidding war for Yu Darvish

or Jake Arrieta?

Maybe Arrieta would give them a hometown discount. Play the “we drafted you” card and hope

the rest is a hazy memory for him.

OK, that’s not happening.

Alex Cobb also would be a significant improvement, but we’re back to wondering at what cost.

I’d still go for it because it isn’t my money.

They’re more likely to go after a bunch of middle-to-back-end guys for the rotation, which isn’t

as bad as it sounds. They still could improve on the production they received from Ubaldo

Jiménez, Wade Miley and Jeremy Hellickson while hoping that Kevin Gausman can put together

two good halves and Dylan Bundy can, yes, take the next step after increasing his innings total

from 109 2/3 to 169 2/3.

Gausman was 5-7 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.763 WHIP before the All-Star break and opponents

batted .318 against him. He was 6-5 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in the second half and

opponents batted .240.

Sound familiar? Checking on the 2016 season, Gausman was 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.304

WHIP in the first half, and opponents batted .272 against him. He was 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA and

1.258 WHIP after the break, and opponents batted .252.

There must be a way to get him out of the gate faster. Make it a priority.

Executive vice president Dan Duquette mentioned before the final game that the Orioles will

need a left-handed starter, seeming to indicate that Miley’s $12 million option won’t be picked

up, though he didn’t confirm it. Jason Vargas is on the market again and the Orioles have been

interested in previous years. Keep an eye on him.

The Orioles were interested in Jorge de la Rosa a few years ago, before he turned 105. OK, he’ll

be 37 in April. He also made all 65 of his appearances this year out of Arizona’s bullpen.

As for in-house left-handers, the Orioles removed Jayson Aquino from the 40-man roster, but

he’s still in the organization. Chris Lee had a 5.11 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 27 games with Triple-

A Norfolk and opponents batted .302, but he posted a 2.61 ERA in the second half and deserves

another shot.

The question is whether Lee is still viewed as a rotation candidate. He made seven relief

appearances while piggybacking the starter.

There are plenty of right-handers on the market who fit the Orioles’ budget. They tried to bring

back Miguel Gonzalez on Aug. 31 and figure to make another run at him. They never should

have let him walk while he still had a minor league option, but $5 million was deemed too

expensive for a Triple-A starter.

Lance Lynn broke J.J. Hardy’s wrist with a fastball in June, but don’t hold that against him. He’s

72-47 with a 3.38 ERA in six seasons with the Cardinals, and he already got his Tommy John

surgery out of the way. Bid until you’re outbid.

Manager Buck Showalter wanted Doug Fister this summer. He wanted Fister in past years. He’d

gladly take Fister next season. Keep an eye on Fister.

The Orioles have been linked to Andrew Cashner in the past and probably will be again. The

3.40 ERA in 28 starts with the Rangers makes him a little more appealing. But he earned $10

million this year and might move out of the Orioles’ price range.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2017/10/talking-about-defense-risp-averages-vs-

lefties-and-more.html

Talking about defense, RISP, averages vs. lefties and more

By Roch Kubatko / MASNsports.com

October 7, 2017

Manager Buck Showalter has expressed concern over the Orioles’ defensive decline and it will

be addressed in the offseason and spring training.

I’m not sure how the roster can be adjusted with so many positions appearing to be set.

Adam Jones has graded poorly in center field if you peruse the defensive metrics - his ultimate

zone rating (UZR) the past two seasons is -10.1 and -13.3 - but I haven’t been given any

indication that he could move to a corner spot. Not yet, anyway.

Trey Mancini and Austin Hays are the favorites to break camp next spring as starters in the

outfield. Manny Machado, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop and Chris Davis compose the infield

if no changes are made.

The club’s .984 fielding percentage this year ranked 16th in the majors. Their 94 errors were tied

with the Cardinals for 15th-most and were 14 more than they committed last year and 17 more

than their 2015 total.

Chance Sisco and Caleb Josephcould share the catching duties if Welington Castillo declines his

$7 million option, becomes a free agent and the Orioles pass on negotiating a longer-term deal.

Sisco has improved his work behind the plate.

“I feel really comfortable back there,” he said. “Just trying to put a good throw down there to

second or third base, wherever they’re trying to run, and give us the best shot to throw them out.”

* The Orioles ranked third in the majors with a .287 average with runners in scoring position,

finishing behind the Astros (.294) and Nationals (.290) and ahead of the Rockies (.285). They’re

the only team in the bunch that didn’t play past the regular season.

Beckham was 17-for-34 with five doubles, a triple, two home runs and 18 RBIs after joining the

Orioles.

In larger sample sizes, Jones batted .361 with runners in scoring position, Mancini .340, Schoop

.338, Machado .310 and Castillo .308.

Davis hit .237, Mark Trumbo .234, Seth Smith .220 and J.J. Hardy .219.

* It didn’t get much attention over the course of the season, but the Orioles’ improvement against

left-handed pitching is noteworthy.

Davis didn’t have the stats in front of him during our recent conversation, but he mentioned how

much better the Orioles fared versus opposing southpaws. And he was right, so to speak.

The past struggles were a hot topic at the Winter Meetings and concerns grew as the Red Sox

traded for Chris Sale. They already had David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez.

The Orioles ranked 10th in the majors this season with a .264 average against lefties. They hit

.234 in 2016 and .240 in 2015.

Castillo did his part to spin the splits by batting .344. Schoop hit .300, Mancini .293, Joey

Rickard.279 and Trumbo .272. Schoop posted a .243 average against lefties in 2016 and Trumbo

batted .173.

Jones improved his average from .218 to .260, but Machado’s average dipped from .329 to .269.

* As a member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), I had the honor this

month of voting for the American League Most Valuable Player. The ballot must contain 10

names, making it the most challenging of the awards.

Rookie of the Year, with only three names required, would have been much easier. Especially

with Aaron Judge one of those names.

I’m not allowed to reveal my ballot until the winners are announced, but feel free to give me

your Top 10.

Five Orioles have been selected as MVP (well, four since we’re counting Cal Ripken Jr. twice).

1964: Brooks Robinson

1966: Frank Robinson

1970: Boog Powell

1983: Cal Ripken Jr.

1991: Cal Ripken Jr.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/are-the-orioles-ready-to-turn-over-right-

field-to-austin-hays.html

Are the Orioles ready to turn over right field to Austin

Hays?

By Steve Melewski / MASNsports.com

October 10, 2017

After he has had 63 plate appearances in the majors, are the Orioles prepared to turn over right

field to Austin Hays in 2018? Should they make that bold move?

It would be a bit of a bold move for a player that has only 166 minor league games and one full

season on the farm under his belt. He was drafted in the third round of the 2016 First-Year Player

Draft and became the first player from that draft class to make the majors.

Hays had an amazing minor league season, one that began at Single-A Frederick and then moved

to Double-A Bowie on June 22. Hays played 64 games for both Frederick and Bowie and posted

nearly identical numbers for both affiliates. He managed to hit slightly better across the board at

Double-A. His average went from .328 with the Keys to .330 with Bowie. His on-base

percentage went from .364 to .367, his slugging from .592 to .594 and his OPS from .956 to .960.

Hays led all minor league players in total bases (310) and ranked second in home runs (32) and

extra-base hits (69). He hit .411 against left-handers on the farm. He was the Orioles’ minor

league Player of the Year, winning the Brooks Robinson Award, and was a finalist for Baseball

America’s Player of the Year honor.

After an 0-for-7 start with the Orioles, he had his first two hits Sept. 16 at New York, including

his first major league homer in the ninth. He went 9-for-24 during a six-game stretch. But he was

also 2-for-22 over his last six games to finish with a .217 average in 20 games.

The Orioles certainly have room for Hays in their outfield. Craig Gentry and Seth Smith are

pending free agents. Even if they carry Rule 5 pick Anthony Santander to start the year, they still

have room for Hays. But are they prepared to turn over right field to the youngster and ride out

the ups and downs?

After Hays was added to the roster Sept. 5, it seemed skipper Buck Showalter was reluctant to

start him for several days. Is Showalter comfortable with the kid playing every day?

Will Hays begin 2018 in Triple-A or in the Orioles’ outfield?

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/a-few-facts-and-a-few-opinions.html

A few facts and a few opinions

By Steve Melewski / MASNsports.com

October 9, 2017

A few items worth nothing and a few opinions about them to start the second week of the

offseason.

Item: The Orioles offense was the best in the American League in August and the worst in

September.

This was a pretty stunning change. In August the team ranked first in batting average (.306),

slugging (.534), OPS (.882), homers (57) and runs per game (6.0). In September they ranked

15th and last in the AL in average (.224), OBP (.273), slugging (.358) and runs per game (3.1).

The Orioles hit 27 homers in the month, next to last in the league.

My take: When fewer homers came, so did fewer runs. The two are directly linked for the

Orioles, but some players may have worn down as well. Manny Machado was third and Jonathan

Schoop was fifth in the league in at-bats. Sure, they are young and can handle a heavy load of

games. But Machado hit .210 with a .590 OPS in September and Schoop hit .239 with a .611

OPS. Maybe more rest is even needed for the youngsters moving foward.

Item: The Orioles began the season going 22-10 and their starting rotation ERA at that point was

4.06. Had they finished at 4.06 for the year, the Orioles starters would have ranked fourth in the

AL. But from that 32-game mark, the Orioles went 53-77 with a rotation ERA of 6.13. Their

final mark of 5.70 was the worst ever by an O’s team. The previous worst was 5.51 in 2008.

My take: We all know the Orioles need better pitching and we all anxiously await finding out

how they intend to do that. If the club is re-loading and not rebuilding, that has to start with a

much improved rotation for 2018.

Item: Second baseman Jonathan Schoop recorded his first career 100-RBI season and became the

fastest Oriole to reach 100 RBIs (Aug. 31) since Chris Davis in 2013 (Aug. 1). Schoop

established an Orioles’ record for RBIs by a second baseman (primary position), passing Roberto

Alomar, who had 94 in 1996. Schoop ranked sixth in the AL and tied for 12th in the majors with

105 RBIs.

My take: Just when some were convinced that Schoop was a certain level talent and may have

found his ceiling, he took it to a much higher level in 2017. His homer total went from 25 to 32,

the RBIs from 82 to 105 and the OPS from .752 to .841. A player who always said he is driven to

get better, chased fewer pitches and did just that.

The message from young players like Schoop and Trey Mancini is clear. Chase fewer pitches

and use the whole field and you can put up some big numbers. Can some O’s veterans do the

same in 2018?

Item: Dylan Bundy went 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA for the Orioles and he was 6-5 with a 3.80 ERA

in 14 starts against the AL East. Bundy recorded 19 quality starts to lead the Orioles and Kevin

Gausman was second with 15. Wade Miley had eight to finish third on the staff. Yep, they had

just three pitchers with eight or more.

My take: While you can have a minimum 4.50 ERA and get credit for a quality start, most often

your game ERA is better and cranking out quality starts are important. The O’s had 61 and tied

the Angels for last in the AL. Boston led the league with 88 and Cleveland had 84. Boston was

fourth in rotation ERA and Cleveland was first.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/for-the-orioles-its-re-load-not-rebuild.html

Orioles will reload, not rebuild

By Steve Melewski / MASNsports.com

October 8, 2017

It is a question worth asking even though we pretty much know the direction the organization

will take: Should the Orioles be rebuilding now after posting a losing record in 2017, and with

several veterans not signed beyond 2018?

The Orioles seem much more inclined to be reloading than rebuilding. They are still looking to

add to their roster and improve their pitching to make another run for the playoffs in 2018.

But we all know that free agency awaits for four key players after the 2018 season unless they

sign extensions before then. This is the group of Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam

Jonesand Brad Brach.

That is a big chunk of the team, one that includes the team’s best individual talent, unofficial

team captain and two key late-inning relievers.

Most teams that are considered to be rebuilding have the profile of several seasons of losing, and

they are looking to acquire young talent to build for the future.

But don’t the Orioles have an impressive group of young talent already? They have Jonathan

Schoop (age 25), Trey Mancini (25), Machado (25), Dylan Bundy (24), Kevin Gausman (26)

and Mychal Givens (27).

They also have youngsters who may be on the cusp of making major contributions, a group that

includes Austin Hays (22), Chance Sisco (22) and Miguel Castro (22).

Beyond that there is Tanner Scott(23), Gabriel Ynoa (24), and Anthony Santander (22). Joey

Rickard is 26, Donnie Hart is 27 and Tim Beckham is 27. Hunter Harvey, finally healthy, could

have an impact for the team at some point next season. He is 22.

We’ve already seen numerous young players in Baltimore, and could see more next year. This

long list includes pitchers Jimmy Yacabonis, Stefan Crichton, Jesus Liranzo, Chris Lee, Mike

Wright, Alec Asher and Yefry Ramirez. All are currently on the 40-man roster.

A rebuilding team would be looking to add and acquire players just like some of the talent that

the Orioles already have. At the same time, the team has a record of 113-124 (.477) since the

2016 All-Star break and has had losing records in seven of the last nine months. The Orioles

have struggled to win with this core group for a season and half now.

But the lineup is still capable of scoring enough to win. The bullpen is deep. The defense has

been good in the past and needs to get back to that. The farm system is trending up. I just don’t

think many teams would choose to rebuild in such circumstances. Right now the Orioles have a

clubhouse and front office that wants to go for it.

So both have work to do. The front office needs to acquire pitching to give the rest of the team a

chance. The players can’t go 7-22 right after they get back in the race with a seven-game

winning steak.

For now, it’s reload and not rebuild

http://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2017/10/what-is-the-ceiling-for-trey-mancini.html

What is the ceiling for Trey Mancini?

By Steve Melewski / MASNsports.com

October 7, 2017

After a stellar rookie season, how much better can Trey Mancini play for the Orioles? What is

his ceiling?

MLBPipeline.com’s Jim Callis recently drew the ire of Birdland when he ranked his current top

30 major league rookies based on their future potential. Again, he was ranking not on current

stats or performance, but future potential.

In an interview for this article on that topic, Callis said he had some concerns about Mancini

moving forward.

“I worry he doesn’t walk much,” Callis said. “His strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty high and I

wonder if big league pitchers are going to solve him a little bit more going forward and I don’t

think he offers a whole lot of other value. I don’t think he’s a very good defender and he’s

probably more of a first baseman, which limits his defensive value. I would take every hitter on

that list over him pretty easily.”

Mancini had a very strong 2017 season. He hit .293/.338/.488 with 26 doubles, four triples, 24

homers, 78 RBIs and an OPS of .826. Mancini’s 159 hits led major league rookies and ranks

second-most by an O’s rookie, trailing only Eddie Murray, who had 173 in 1977. Mancini’s 24

homers trailed only Hall of Famers Murray and Cal Ripken Jr. among O’s rookies. Ripken hit 28

homers in 1982 and Murray hit 27 as a rookie.

Mancini was among the rookie stat leaders in the big leagues in several categories. He ranked

26th overall in the American League among all players in OPS at .826. He kept good company

with Houston’s Alex Bregman 25th at .827 and Cleveland’s Carlos Santana 27th at .818.

In trying to ponder and project Mancini’s future performance, one comparison worth looking at

for me is Mancini’s rookie year versus Jonathan Schoop’s first two full seasons in 2014-2015,

the second of which was ended early by injury:

Schoop in 2014-15: .237 average, .269 on-base percentage, .405 slugging, .674 OPS

Mancini in 2017: .293 average, .338 on-base percentage, .488 slugging, .826 OPS

This is no apples to apples comparison. Schoop was an international amateur signing out of

Curacao and Mancini a college draft pick. Schoop reached the majors at age 21 for the first time

and Mancini at 24. One is a second baseman and one a left fielder. But they are both batters with

lower walk rates who have some pop in their bats. We are comparing them through their first

season and two seasons in the majors.

If Mancini can make some of the improvements Schoop made, he might really take his offense to

a special level.

This year Schoop’s walk rate improved from 3.2 percent in 2016 to a career-best 5.2. Mancini’s

walk rate of 5.6, while well below average, already exceed’s Schoop career-best mark.

Schoop this year, according to FanGraphs.com stats, posted a career-best rate of chasing pitches

outside the strike zone. He improved from swinging at 43.0 percent of non-strikes to 37.1

percent. He chased fewer pitches and had his best year in this category. Mancini’s chase rate was

36.8 percent in 2017.

Schoop’s rate of swinging and missing strikes was 13.8 percent this season, down from 17.5 in

2015 and 16.2 in 2016. Mancini’s rate for this year matched Schoop at 13.8.

Neither player gets high marks for his plate discipline skills, but Schoop didn’t need to grade

above average, or even average here, to put up big offensive numbers. Mancini didn’t either.

Schoop improved his walk rate, etc. just to get to levels that Mancini is already at as a rookie.

This could bode well for Mancini to take his offense to higher levels over the next few seasons.

It is not like Mancini wildly chases pitches - he doesn’t. But he doesn’t walk much either and his

walk-to-strikeout rate is one of the worst on the team. There is room for growth. There was for

Schoop and he did make improvements.

On defense, I think you had to see Mancini play every night to note that he was not a liability out

there, showed a decent and accurate arm, and made some big defensive plays. He is just not

going to be as athletic as a smaller, faster player, but his athleticism is probably underrated

overall.

Mancini hits to all fields and showed impressive power to right and right center. He hit .293

versus both lefties and righties. He hit .340 with runners in scoring position. He was more than

adequate on defense. He fits in seamlessly in the clubhouse, already well-respected by the vets.

He is a quick study and devoted to getting better.

Is his ceiling an elite talent like Manny Machado? That is likely aiming too high. Could he put

together an offensive season next year or down the road that Schoop did in 2017? Certainly

seems so to me.

http://www.masnsports.com/orioles-buzz/2017/10/registration-underway-for-oct-28-kidspeace-

trick-of-trot-5k-and-one-mile-walk-at-camden-yards.html

Registration underway for Oct. 28 KidsPeace Trick-of-Trot

5K and one-mile walk at Camden Yards

By Pete Kerzel / MASNsports.com

October 6, 2017

Registration is now underway for the Oct. 28 KidsPeace Trick-of-Treat 5K and one-mile walk at

Camden Yards.

The Halloween-themed event, held in partnership with the Baltimore Orioles and hosted by

Angela and Buck Showalter, benefits KidsPeace Foster Care and Community Programs of

Maryland, including its KidsPeace Empowering Youth to Succeed life skills program for young

people preparing for independence. The run and walk events take place around Camden Yards,

with the races ending on the field at Oriole Park.

The registration fee is $40 through Oct. 24. The first 1,000 registered participants will receive an

Under Armour race T-shirt (sizes are first-come, first-served when picking up race packets the

week of the event).

In addition to the race awards for top overall and age group finishers, prizes will also be awarded

for outstanding costumes (child, adult and family), as well as the most creative costumes with

an Orioles theme. Participants will also enjoy a pre-race warmup party and a post-race

celebration at the ballpark hosted by the Showalters and the Oriole Bird.

Those interested in volunteering or becoming a sponsor of the event should contact Gina

Seyfried at 443-285-0220 or through email at gina.seyfried@kidspeace.org.

Online registration is available here.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/20969093/hank-aaron-award-finalists-announced

Hank Aaron Award finalists announced

ESPN.com

October 9, 2017

On Monday, Major League Baseball announced the finalists for the Hank Aaron Award, which

has recognized the most outstanding offensive performer in each league since it was established

in 1999.

Balloting for the award consists of votes from fans and a panel of Hall of Fame players led

by Aaron himself.

Here are the finalists for each team:

Hank Aaron Award Finalists:

AMERICAN LEAGUE NATIONAL LEAGUE

BAL - Jonathan Schoop ARI - Paul Goldschmidt

BOS - Mookie Betts ATL - Freddie Freeman

CWS - Jose Abreu CHC - Anthony Rizzo

CLE - Jose Ramirez CIN - Joey Votto

DET - Nicholas Castellanos COL - Charlie Blackmon

HOU - Jose Altuve LAD - Cody Bellinger

KC - Eric Hosmer MIA - Giancarlo Stanton

LAA - Mike Trout MIL - Travis Shaw

MIN - Brian Dozier NYM - Michael Conforto

NYY - Aaron Judge PHI - Odubel Herrera

OAK - Khris Davis PIT - Andrew McCutchen

SEA - Nelson Cruz SD - Jose Pirela

TB - Logan Morrison SF - Buster Posey

TEX - Elvis Andrus STL - Tommy Pham

TOR - Josh Donaldson WSH - Ryan Zimmerman

The winners of the 2017 Hank Aaron Award will be announced during the World Series.

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/10/09/2017-orioles-roster-review-part-one-the-

replaceable-position-players

2017 Orioles Roster Review, Part One: The Replaceable

Position Players

By: Paul Folkemer / PressBoxOnline.com

October 9, 2017

This is the first installment of a five-part review of the Orioles' roster. We'll examine each of the

50 players who performed for the team in 2017. In our first part, we'll look at the position players

who are likely to be replaced, some who could be replaced and some who already have.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy: The Orioles aren't going to pick up Hardy's $14 million option for 2018.

Hardy, who missed time with a broken right wrist, didn't come close to accruing the 600 plate

appearances needed for the contract to vest.

Playing in 73 games, his fewest since 2006, the 35-year-old batted .217.

While Hardy was on the disabled list, the Orioles found his replacement in Tim Beckham, who

had a terrific start. Beckham injured his hamstring during the season's final week, and Hardy got

some extra playing time.

Hardy will look to play elsewhere, but he can no longer play every day, and he's never played

another position besides shortstop.

Outfielder Seth Smith: Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette

shrewdly acquired the steady, quiet outfielder from the Seattle Mariners for right-handed starter

Yovani Gallardo in January.

The 35-year-old Smith's .340 OBP led all regulars on the club, but he was miscast as a leadoff

hitter. His 32 RBIs were the fewest he's produced in any full major league season.

The Orioles are hoping prospect Austin Hays can replace Smith in right field.

Outfielder Joey Rickard: In his second season, Rickard was a useful defensive replacement, but

he failed to grow as a hitter. In the minor leagues, the 26-year-old drew plenty of walks and had

a reputation as a solid on-base player.

But this year, Rickard walked just nine times and struck out 63 times in 277 plate appearances.

Rickard could stick as a fifth outfielder, but with Rule 5 pick Anthony Santander likely to start

2018 on the major league roster, he could find himself beginning next season in Triple-A

Norfolk.

Outfielder Craig Gentry: Manager Buck Showalter is a big fan of the reserve outfielder, whose

defense and speed are his main draws.

Gentry suffered a broken right middle finger Sept. 1 and was restricted to a few pinch-running

assignments during the season's final weeks.

He could be back, perhaps on a minor league contract.

Infielder Ryan Flaherty: Flaherty completed his sixth and by far his most unfulfilling season as

an Orioles utility player. The 31-year-old, who missed three months with a shoulder injury,

batted just 38 times this season and will seek a job with a team in which he could play more

often.

Infielder Ruben Tejada: Tejada filled in while Hardy and Flaherty were on the disabled list, but

he was outrighted to Norfolk when Flaherty returned. He wasn't added to the team's roster when

it expanded in September.

Designated Hitter Pedro Alvarez: Alvarez didn't re-sign with the Orioles until March, and spent

all season at Norfolk until he was finally added to the roster Sept. 1.

He tried his hand at the outfield, but that experiment was abandoned.

If the Orioles trade Mark Trumbo, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the 30-year-old re-signed later

in the offseason.

Showalter is a fan of Alvarez's power and likes his work ethic.

Outfielder Hyun Soo Kim: After a solid 2016, Kim had a rough 2017 before he was sent off to

the Philadelphia Phillies in the Jeremy Hellickson trade.

Kim never developed as a hitter, and his outfield play left much to be desired.

Infielder Paul Janish: Janish retired in August after Rice University offered him an assistant

coach's job. The heady infielder played 14 games in each of the past three seasons when Hardy

was injured.

Catcher Francisco Pena: Pena was 5-for-10 in limited action when Welington Castillo was on the

disabled list. After promising his mother he'd hit a home run, he hit two home runs in a game the

night before Mother's Day.

The Orioles are flush with catching, and while Pena does a decent job, there doesn't appear to be

room for him.

Second baseman Johnny Giavotella: The Orioles tried Giavotella, who hit .306 at Norfolk, at

second base while moving Jonathan Schoop to shortstop in July. He went 1-for-10.

Giavotella suffered a hip injury with Norfolk and isn't likely to return to the organization.

First baseman David Washington: A minor league slugger who was clearly overmatched in six

major league at-bats, Washington has no future with the Orioles.

https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/10/06/what-was-wrong-with-orioles-slugger-chris-davis-

in-2017

What Was Wrong With Orioles Slugger Chris Davis In

2017?

By Rich Dubroff / PressBoxOnline.com

October 6, 2017

Chris Davis knows how bad his 2017 season was. The Orioles first baseman asked to meet with a

small group of reporters before the team's final game of the season because he wanted to

apologize for -- not explain away -- his performance.

Davis will look for an explanation this offseason when he works in Texas with Orioles hitting

coach Scott Coolbaugh as he tries to recapture the magic that earned him a seven-year, $161

million contract.

Two years into the deal, Davis is deeply disappointed, and so are Orioles fans, many of whom

have singled him out for criticism.

Just how rocky was 2017 for Davis?

Despite missing a month with an oblique strain, Davis still struck out 195 times -- in 42.8 percent

of his at-bats. He averaged more than 1.5 strikeouts a game, and had he played in 160 games as

he did in 2013 and 2015 -- his two outstanding seasons -- Davis would have struck out 244

times, which easily would have been a major league record.

In his words, Davis has "always been a high strikeout guy." Even in 2013 and 2015 when he hit a

combined 100 home runs, Davis struck out in more than a third of his at-bats.

But observers saw something much different in Davis this season. In 2014, when he batted .196

and had his season truncated by a 25-game suspension for use of Adderall without a prescription,

he wasn't nearly as passive at the plate as he was this year. There were countless called third

strikes this season.

In the past, Davis always had the potential for being a dangerous hitter no matter the count, but

not this year.

On 0-2 counts, Davis was 1-for-53 (.038) and struck out in 42 of those at-bats. The passivity

exhibited itself more glaringly on full counts, in which Davis was 4-for-53 (.075). He walked 41

times and struck out 36 times on 3-2 counts.

Compare that with the rest of his career: Davis has 10 home runs on 0-2 counts and 28 when the

count is full, but none came in 2017.

Even Davis' home runs were different this year. In 2015 when he led the majors with 47, nearly

half of them (23) came with runners on base.

This year, 20 of his 26 homers were bases-empty shots, and only three of them came after the

seventh inning. In 2015, 15 of his 47 home runs came in the eighth inning or later.

Not that his home runs were meaningless this year. Twenty-two of the 26 came with the Orioles

within four runs.

Davis' defense wasn't as sharp this year as it had been in the past, either. He made seven errors --

all of them coming in his final 76 games at first.

The Orioles have an enormous investment in Davis. His large contract makes him untradeable,

and he's personally invested in the area. While not a full-time resident, he's one of the few

Orioles who owns a home here, and he devotes time and money to the University of Maryland

Children's Hospital.

After the 2014 season, the Orioles hired Coolbaugh, who had worked with Davis with the Texas

Rangers. The combination has been a successful one, and Davis is thinking it will be again.

When the Orioles report to spring training in February, they are surely hoping they'll see the

Davis they saw in 2013 and 2015. And so are the fans.

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/10/10/delving-2018-arbitration-salary-projections/

Delving into 2018 arbitration salary projections

By Dan Connolly / BaltimoreBaseball.com

October 10, 2017

When we explore what the Orioles need to do to add quality starting pitching, part of the premise

for why they should be able to make moves is that a ton of money is coming off the books.

The rotation alone will shed about $32.5 million from 2017 with the departures of Ubaldo

Jimenez. Wade Miley and Chris Tillman. (there’s also the departure of Jeremy Hellickson, who

made $17.2 million in 2017, but the Philadelphia Phillies paid all of about $15.7 million of that

as part of a salary juggle with Hyun Soo Kim’s contract).

With some other contracts coming off the books (J.J. Hardy’s $14 million, Seth Smith’s $7

million, potentially Welington Castillo’s $6 million, Ryan Flaherty’s $1.8 million, among

others), it’s conceivable the Orioles have $60 million or so to play with if they equal 2017’s

franchise record payroll in 2018.

It doesn’t always work out that way, though. There are costs that will sap a chunk of those

perceived savings. The Orioles will spend at least $2.5 million in buyouts and another $4 million

or so in guaranteed contractual raises (Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Darren O’Day).

And then there is arbitration, which increases payroll by the nature of baseball’s collective

bargaining agreement rules. The Orioles will probably spend an additional $20 million or so in

2018 for the seven arb-eligible players they have.

So that $60 million or so that likely will come off the books is closer to roughly $30-35 million

— still a good sum, but not as significant as first thought.

All of that can change, of course. Arbitration salaries will play a big role as will potential re-

signings. That’s why I keep throwing “or so,” around in this piece. It’s hard to pinpoint a payroll

number in October.

MLBtraderumors.com published its arbitration projections for every team Monday, including

seven arb-eligible players for the Orioles. The site has its own formula to project arb salaries, and

it’s usually rather accurate given the many variables.

The club has fewer cases this year than it has recently, and that’s good. And all seven players

listed should be tendered contracts – they are either instrumental to the Orioles’ production or are

financially affordable relative to their positions and experience levels.

Here’s a look at each one of the Orioles’ seven arbitration players, their projected salaries by

mlbtraderumors.com and my thoughts on each.

3B Manny Machado, projected 2018 arb salary, $17.3 million:

Machado, heading into his final year before free agency, made $11.5 million in 2016, which was

a $6.5 million jump from what he made in 2016. So, this would actually a represent a slight

downgrade in salary increase ($5.8 million) from his previous arbitration-eligible offseason.

Still, based on what I can find from previous salary figures, $17.3 million would be a franchise

record salary for an arb-eligible Oriole. It also is the second highest estimated salary in these

projections, behind Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (listed by the website as $17.9

million). In comparison, Washington’s Bryce Harper already agreed to a 2018 salary to avoid the

arbitration discussions; he’ll make $21.625 million in 2018, also his walk year.

We all know the Orioles would like to re-sign Machado, a franchise cornerstone, to an extension

this offseason. But, like many, I’m skeptical on the reality of that outcome. Machado’s going to

get a huge payday, and I doubt the Orioles will throw enough money at him this winter to have

him forego the free-agency process. So, the best guess is he’ll get $17-$18 million from the

Orioles in 2018 and will be looking for a new job the following winter.

LHP Zach Britton, projected 2018 salary, $12.2 million:

I think this one might be a little light, given that Britton made $11.4 million in 2017, and even

though he dealt with an injury-riddled season, he still converted 15 of 17 save opportunities (88

percent) and saves are an important stat in arbitration hearings. I’d be surprised if he only gets an

$800,000 raise given his body of work (93 percent save conversion in four seasons). But it is

tough to find a true comp for Britton’s career trajectory heading into his final arbitration year.

That said, the real question is whether any figure Britton is going to receive will be too rich for

the Orioles’ blood. His salary last year was a franchise record for a closer – remember, the

Orioles cut loose Jim Johnson in a salary-dump trade when he was looking at a $10 million

arbitration salary in 2014. And since Britton wasn’t fully healthy in 2017 you have to wonder if

that gives the higher-ups even more reason not to spend so much money on a closer.

Still, if they trade Britton, they’d have to get a whole lot in return, and club executive vice

president Dan Duquette has gone on record saying he’d prefer not to deal from the team’s

strength: the back-end of the bullpen.

RHP Brad Brach, projected 2018 salary, $5.2 million:

You know above, where I wrote that saves are a key arbitration statistic? Well, Brach will be the

poster boy to reinforce that notion this winter. His salary jumped from $1.25 million to $3.05

million when he turned in the best year of his career in 2016, an All-Star campaign. He wasn’t as

effective in 2017, but he led the Orioles with 18 saves (in 24 chances). MLBTraderumors.com

figures that’s worth a $2-million-plus hike for this season. And my sense is that’s about right.

The question, of course, then becomes: Will the Orioles pay in excess of $5 million for the setup

man to a $12-million-plus closer? That’s $17-plus million for the last two cogs in the Orioles’

bullpen. It’s why I really wonder whether both Brach and Britton will be in the same bullpen in

April 2018. Given the club’s rotation holes, trading one of the two for starting help makes sense.

2B Jonathan Schoop, projected 2018 salary, $9.1 million:

This would represent a near-tripling of Schoop’s $3.5 million salary in 2017. Schoop had the

best season of an Oriole, though, and the second year of arbitration often triggers a big jump. So,

it also doesn’t seem out of line.

Schoop’s not a free agent until after the 2019 season, so this would be a great time to offer an

extension, set Schoop up for years to come and buy out his last two years of arbitration. It’s not

something the Orioles have done often, but it’s not unfathomable either.

RHP Kevin Gausman, projected 2018 salary, $6.8 million:

Oh, to be a starting pitcher in the majors. Gausman had his worst statistical season since he

posted a 5.66 ERA in 20 games as a rookie in 2013. This year, he was 11-12 with a 4.68 ERA, a

half-run higher than his career mark. And yet he’s probably looking at potentially doubling his

$3.45 million salary from 2017.

That’s the way it is when a starting pitcher – and one that made 34 starts – reaches the arbitration

levels. In one sense, $6.8 million is a bargain for an effective MLB starter. But once he gets to

that stratosphere – and turns 27 in January – I don’t think you can look at him as young and

cheap anymore. I don’t think it can be overstated that 2018 is an exceptionally important year for

Gausman.

SS Tim Beckham, projected 2018 salary, $3.1 million:

This is his first, arb-eligible year with the Orioles after going through the process, and settling,

with the Tampa Bay Rays last winter for $885,000. The 2018 projection seems about right, given

Beckham’s increase in offensive production in 2017.

At this point, a $3 million starting shortstop is a tremendous bargain, and $11 million cheaper

than what the Orioles paid Hardy in 2017. But if Beckham’s dropoff in September (.180 average,

32 strikeouts in 89 at-bats) carries over, a $3 million utility infielder isn’t a bargain. The belief is

he is somewhere in the middle between his awful September and magnificent August (.394

average, 1.062 on-base-plus-slugging percentage).

C Caleb Joseph, projected 2018 salary, $1.4 million:

This time last year Orioles fans were aghast that a player could go an entire season without

driving in a run and still get a $176,500 raise the way Joseph ($523,500 to $700,00) did last

winter. Well, this year, the Orioles’ affable backup catcher could double his salary. And there

won’t be much hand-wringing.

Joseph, 31, hit a respectable .256 with eight homers and 28 RBIs in 89 games while continuing

to call a good game behind the plate. It’s possible Joseph may end up as the Orioles’ primary

starter early on in 2018 while sharing duties with prospect Chance Sisco if Castillo chooses to

become a free agent. So the salary figure seems about right, I suppose.

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2017/10/09/final-look-war-2017-orioles/

A final look at WAR and the 2017 Orioles

By Paul Folkemer / BaltimoreBaseball.com

October 6, 2017

Welcome to the final edition of this year’s “Stats All, Folks.”

To close the book on 2017, I’m doing something a little different today. Instead of introducing a

new sabermetric stat to analyze, I’m going to come full circle and call back to the first statistic I

looked at this year: Wins Above Replacement.

You can check out my previous story for a complete breakdown of what WAR is and how it’s

calculated.

Now let’s apply the stat to sum up the Orioles’ 2017 season. Which players provided the most

value to the club, according to WAR? Which provided the least?

As a reminder, there are two versions of WAR that are most commonly used: rWAR (or

Baseball-Reference WAR) and fWAR (or FanGraphs WAR). They’re calculated in somewhat

different ways, which I’ll discuss in a bit.

The chart below lists 20 of the most prominent Orioles on this year’s club. (I’ve excluded

position players who had fewer than 100 plate appearances and pitchers who worked fewer than

30 innings.) I’ve listed each player’s final rWAR and fWAR for the Orioles in 2017, as well as

an average of the two WARs.

Both flavors of WAR agree that Jonathan Schoop, who was named 2017 Most Valuable Oriole,

was deserving of that title. He had the team’s highest WAR by a comfortable margin. Both also

rank Manny Machado as the second most valuable.

In many cases, rWAR and fWAR assess a player pretty similarly. For instance, both rate Tim

Beckham as being worth 2.0 WAR for the Orioles, and other players have just a one- or two-

point difference between the two stats.

But others have a more dramatic gap. Schoop and Machado, for example, rate noticeably higher

in rWAR than fWAR. Other players have up to a 14-point difference in rWAR and fWAR.

Why the disparity? The reason is that the two versions of WAR use different metrics and

calculations, based on which each site prefers.

One of the main differences for position players is the defensive and baserunning stats used to

calculate WAR. rWAR uses Defensive Runs Saved (which I covered in a previous stats piece)

while fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating, which has slight variations from DRS. Also, fWAR

grades runners using Baserunning Runs (BsR, discussed here) while rWAR has its own unique

method for evaluating baserunning.

There are other differences for hitters, as well. rWAR treats strikeouts differently from other

types of outs; fWAR doesn’t. And the rWAR calculation considers league averages only within a

league (AL or NL), while fWAR uses the league average across the entire MLB.

For pitchers, the contrast between rWAR and fWAR is even more stark. The major difference is

that fWAR uses Fielding Independent Pitching (which, yes, I previously wrote about) as a

baseline for its calculation, while rWAR uses ERA. So fWAR puts more stock into how a pitcher

should have fared if he’d had a league-average defense and luck, while rWAR assesses the

pitcher’s actual results on the field.

A few takeaways from the Orioles’ 2017 WAR ratings:

*fWAR is far kinder to the Orioles’ quartet of struggling starters — Chris Tillman, Ubaldo

Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Miley — than rWAR is. fWAR rates each of them at least

seven points better. It pegs Miley as worth 0.8 WAR (better than Seth Smith, among others)

while rWAR has him at negative value (-0.1). fWAR also credits Jimenez with slight positive

value at 0.1 WAR, a stark contrast to his awful rWAR (-1.3).

fWAR cuts Miley and Jimenez a bit of slack because their FIPs were better than their ERAs (in

Jimenez’s case, more than a run better). They also had relatively high strikeout rates — 8.8 for

Jimenez and 8.1 for Miley — which is a key element of fWAR. So fWAR suggests that Jimenez

and Miley pitched a little better than their ERAs reflected but might have been victimized by bad

luck and poor defense, while rWAR suggests no, they really did pitch horribly.

*On the flip side, fWAR gives no love to Richard Bleier and Miguel Castro, a pair of first-year

Orioles who became integral parts of the club’s bullpen. Bleier’s 0.2 fWAR is 11 points lower

than his 1.3 rWAR, despite a 1.99 ERA. And Castro, according to fWAR, actually had negative

value at -0.1, while rWAR rates him at 0.9. That seems like a harsh evaluation for a pitcher who

often ate up effective innings in relief to bail out starters who were chased early.

Again, the difference comes down to FIP vs. ERA. Both Bleier and Castro had low strikeout

rates — 3.7 and 5.2, respectively — and their FIPs were significantly higher than their ERAs, so

fWAR doesn’t see them as nearly as valuable as rWAR does.

*The two versions of WAR disagree on who was the least valuable Oriole of 2017. rWAR

saddles Tillman (-2.2) with the lowest WAR, while fWAR ranks Mark Trumbo (-1.2) as the

worst.

In fact, Tillman’s rWAR rates as the worst in the major leagues, while Trumbo had the second-

lowest fWAR of any qualified position player in the majors, better only than Albert Pujols (-2.0).

It’s a toss-up as to which Oriole was worse. Both were plenty bad in 2017. Tillman went 1-7

with a 7.84 ERA in 24 games (19 starts) and didn’t record a win after his season debut. Trumbo,

whose main job was to hit, batted .234 with a .686 OPS and 23 home runs, less than half his total

from last year. He also struggled defensively during his infrequent appearances in right field.

*Around the majors, the best rWAR totals belonged to Houston Astros second baseman Jose

Altuve (8.3), New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (8.1) and Cleveland Indians right-

hander Corey Kluber (8.0). By fWAR, the three best were Judge (8.2), Boston Red Sox lefty

Chris Sale (7.7) and Altuve (7.5).

The AL MVP and Cy Young votes should be fascinating this year. It appears to be a two-horse

race between Judge and Altuve for MVP and Kluber and Sale for the Cy, and there are strong

arguments to be made for each of them.