Tufts University

Waterand

People

Richard M. VogelTufts UniversityMedford, MA

Environmental StudiesLunch & Learn

Oct 20, 2011

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Outline

Emerging Issues:Water and People: Some Big ProblemsWater Supply – Boston Metro RegionWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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Outline

Emerging Issues:

Water and People: An Introto some big problems

Water and HealthWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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Water and People: Why do people know so little about water?

Hydrologic science is an interdisciplinary

science which involves the interfaces among

earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences.

Hydrology is a geoscience

Why isn‟t it taught like geology, biology, meteorology, or chemistry?

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Water Problems are Human Problems

Global Population Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

YEAR (AD)

Popu

latio

n in

Bill

ions

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Water Problems Result From Human Influences and they are Ramping Up

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Water Pollution

Water and People

and Water Scarcity

Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21st

Century

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Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion

Water and People

Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater

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Water and Poverty

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Irrigation can lift rural poor out of poverty

Inc

ome p

er

capita Average

income levels & irrigation intensity in India

From U. Lall, Columbia Univ

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Outline

Emerging Issues:Water and People

Water Supply – BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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Wet History of Boston1630 – Boston Settled, water supply from

spring near Boston Common

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A Real Celebration!US Cities Devoted Huge Resources to Clean Water

When water from Lake Cochituate flowed into the Frog Pond on Boston Common in 1848, the dedication ceremony drew 100,000

people and was declared a public holiday

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Panoramic View of Ruins of BostonsGreat Fire of 1872

Brought fire steamers to Boston fromPortsmouth, N.H.

AndLed to Wachusett/Quabbin Reservoir

System

The Mystic Lakes System

• By 1870, Boston’s population soared to 200,000

• In 1870 the Mystic Lakes System in Winchester, Medford and Arlington was added to the Boston System

Addition of Mystic Lakes System

In 1870, the Mystic Lakes system was connected to distribution system at Tufts University.

Old reservoir on Tufts hill, lined with brick.

Old bricks used to construct Bray Hall on Boston Ave using student labor. West Hall

Dorm in 1890Gate House on Reservoir

Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College

Reservoir and GatehouseAt Tufts, 1898. Reservoir was called the REZ

Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College

WestHallDormBuilt in1871

BallouHallBuilt1850

Mystic Reservoir at Tufts College

Parking Lot Which Replaced the REZ

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Pumphouse at Chestnut Hill

Water Sources in 1895, Lake Cochituate, Sudbury Reservoirs, Mystic Lakes

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Growth in Metro Boston Water Supply System

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Lake C

ochitu

ate

Mys

tic L

akes

Sudbury

Syste

m

Wach

usett

Res

ervoir

Quab

bin R

eserv

oir

1848 1870 1872 1908 19460

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Lake C

ochitu

ate

Mys

tic L

akes

Sudbury

Syste

m

Wach

usett

Res

ervoir

Quab

bin R

eserv

oir

Syst

em Y

ield

inM

illio

ns o

f Gal

lons

per

Day

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Growth in Water Supply System

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NYCWater Supply

System

Today

Quabbin Reservoir

You Couldn’t DoIt Today

4 towns removed and legally dissolved

39 square miles flooded

2,000 residents relocated

1,000 buildings destroyed

34 cemeteries relocated

81,000 acres purchased for $9.6 million

$53 million total project costs

26 lives lost during construction

Original Towns

Eliminatedby

Quabbin

Moving Homes to Build Quabbin

Town Hall from Enfield still stands, but town is now gone

Old Cemeteries had to be moved

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Quabbin Park Cemetery 1

Quabbin Park Cemetery

First water released from Winsor Dam

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Early Projections of Water Demand Were Upward Biased

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1895 Projections Led to Evaluation of Alternatives

Demand Exceeds “Safe” Yield in 1969

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History of Supply and DemandAgain 1985 Projections Leads to Future Studies

Water Supply Study Commissioned in 1985 to Evaluate Alternatives to Increase Yield

Again, History repeats itself

Demand Management, Conservation and Leak Repair Worked!

Demand was reduced from: 336 in 1987 to 256 mgd in 1997

MWRA Annual Average System Demand

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

MG

D

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Outline

Emerging Issues:Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and Boston

Water and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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Water and Urbanization

Increased U.S. Flood damages 1932-1997 adjusted to 1995 dollars

Are increased damages due to:

Climate Change?

Urbanization?

Agriculture?

All three?

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A Probability Report

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We live in a watershed and we are part of the problem

Land Management is Water Management

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Urbanization IncreasesFlows in Rivers and Streams

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Aberjona River, Massachusetts24 sq. mi. urban watershed near Tufts

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Like Clockwork, and Like Urbanization, Annual Maximum Flood Discharges are

steadily increasing

1940-2009

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It is not only floods on Aberjona River which are influenced by urbanization.

0.1

1

10

100

1000

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Exceedance Probability

Dai

ly S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

1940s-1950s

1960s-1970s

1980s-1990s

ALLFlows Increased

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One Partial Remedy:Low Impact Development

No curbsBioretentionNo pipesNo manholes

Mimics Nature

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How can we make residential developments function hydrologically like natural systems?

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High Impact Development

•Removal of trees vegetation

•Soil erosion•Impervious

areas•Result: Stormwater pipes and detention pond

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STREAM CHANNEL - FLOODPLAIN

BANKFULL CHANNEL

INSTREAM CHANNELDIVERSITY

THALWEG

STREAM-SIDEVEGETATION

LOW FLOWCHANNEL

FEATURES OF A NATURAL CHANNEL

RIPARIANWETLAND BEDROCK

Point Bar

Riffle

Pool

RIFFLE - POOL SYSTEM

Source: Richard T. Grost, Fisheries cover photo January 2001

STEELHEAD TROUT – EGGS AND ALEVINS

CONCRETE LINED TRAPEZOIDAL FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELTROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT

Low Flow Channel

Bankfull Width

Floodplain

No InstreamHabitat Value

Instream Habitat &Low Flow Channel

Vegetative Cover

VEGETATION LINED FLOOD CONTROL CHANNELTROUT BROOK- WEST HARTFORD, CT

Designed by: James MacBroom

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Hydrology - The study of precipitation, infiltration, surface runoff, streamflow rates, water storage in wetlands, detention basins,

and reservoirs, plus water use and diversions.

Engineering –The application of science and mathematics

in analysis, design, and permitting.

Ecology - The study of plants, animals, and their environment, with emphasis on aquatic systems, wetlands, and riparian

forests..

Hydraulics - The study of the stream’s water velocity, flow depth, flood elevations,

channel erosion, storm drains, culverts, bridges, and dams.

Water Quality - The study of the physical, biological, and chemical

characteristics of surface waters and groundwaters.

Socioeconomic - The study of the sociology, social relationships, economic

impacts, and their interconnections.

Fluvial Morphology - The study of the channel’s geologic origin, alignment,

slope, shape, size, sediments, and floodplains. Construction –The application of the design.

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Outline

Emerging Issues:

Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and Urbanization

Water and ClimateWater and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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Projections of Global Surface Warming

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Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Water and Climate

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From

IPCC

Nov

2007

“Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity.” (UN Secretary General, November 2007)

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The answer is generally

yes.

Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global

temperatures?

A Gallop Poll

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Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008)

Extentof IceCover

(millionsof sq. mi)

1978 Year 2008

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Glacial Melt – Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes

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Examples of human-induced climate

change are now apparent on every

continent

National Park Service

NA

SA

Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

US

GS

UK.govNA

SA

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

Jerry and Marcy Monkman

Wetland Inundation

andLoss

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

Dr. Norbert Psuty

-More coastal erosion

Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding

Winthrop, MA

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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

Coastal Flooding in Boston under Present and High Emission Sea Levels

Source: NECIA/UCS 2007

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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

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New York City : Today‟s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years

under the High-Emissions Scenarios

Credit:: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.

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Outline

Emerging Issues:

Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and Climate

Water and FoodWater and Human Water Use

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From water shortage to food shortage

“If present trends continue, the livelihoods of one third of the world’s population will be affected by water scarcity by 2025.

We could be facing annual losses equivalent to the entire grain crops of India and the US combined.”

Frank Rijsberman, Director General

International Water Management Institute 2003

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Water and Food

Kenya 1998-2000 drought:$2.4 billion in losses

Every 5 seconds a child younger than ten dies of

hunger

Why are Food and Water Related?

Water Scarcity and Food Scarcity are Related

The driving forces are similar:

•Growing population•Dietary changes•Urbanization•Conflicting needs for water•Climate change impacts•Biofuel production

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Outline

Emerging Issues:

Water and PeopleWater Supply – NYC and BostonWater and UrbanizationWater and ClimateWater and Food

Water and Human Water Use

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Balancing Water for Humans and

Nature, 2004

by M. Falkenmarkand J. Rockström

Blue Water – Water in rivers and lakes

Green Water – Vertical fluxes such as evapotranspiration

(evapotranspiration = evaporation and transpiration)

Blue versus Green Water

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Blue-Green Water

65 % of the continental precipitation is green water,

supporting terrestrial ecosystems,

35 % is blue water, supporting societal uses and aquatic

ecosystems.

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Traditionally water engineers have only managed blue water

A major future challenge involvesmanaging green water

using:rainwater collection

managing crop evapotranspirationland use management

etc

Blue-Green Water

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Blue Water – Green Water and Food

•80% of global cropland is rainfed

•60-70% of worlds food is produced on rainfed land

•In sub-Saharan Africa food production depends on >95% green water

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A Blue-GreenWater Availability Index

Based on work in progress at USGS and Tufts University 2011

From Freeman and others, Tufts Unive, under review, 2011

Blue – GreenWater

Availability in Africa

260 international basins: +/- tensions: longstanding, always, growing with demand

“Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict & wars in the future.”

Kofi Annan, March 2001

Grey & Sadoff

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Water Conflicts Involve Multiple

Objectives

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And Now The Fish and Other Biota have Place at the Negotiating Table

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Human Water Use Conflicts

The Colorado River Compact, 1922

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Water and Human Water Use

2005 Headline

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The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use

From: Gleick, 2003,

Science,Global Freshwater

Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.

Colorado River Delta Runs Dry

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South Africa Water Law

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1800

1900

History of US Dam and Reservoir Construction

1950

2000

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From:Gleick, 2003,

Science,

Global Freshwater Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th

Century.

Worldwide Construction of Large Reservoirs in 20th Century

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Shading denotes degree of homogenization in flow regimes due to dams

(from Poff et al. 2007, PNAS)

Dams „flatten‟ the downstreamstreamflow regime

Its Not So Simple!

The Quabbin Reservoir Tailwater Region, Just

Below the Spillway Attracts Fly Fisherman

from all over the Region!

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Dam Removal Trends in the U.S.

Total Number of Dams in US ~82,642Greater than 25 feet high

Total Number of Dams Removed: ~748

Dams Removed in 2008 64

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Dams Provide Many Benefits Including:

Water Supply Hydropower Irrigation Recreation Cooling Water And …

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Dams Also Provide Flood Protection

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Visible overuse of water

Lake AralYellow River (China) running dry on the last 100 km1972 during 15 days1996 during 133 days1997 during 226 days

Source: Ren and Walker, Environmental consequences of human activity on the Yellow River; Physical Geography 19.1998.5, pp 421-432

Rio Grande (USA/Mexico), in 2001 for the first time failed to reach the Gulf of Mexico(Economist, 2001)

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Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow

River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain(from Konikow and Kendy,”Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)

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Acceleration in annual global water withdrawals: 1900–2000

From Postel, 1992

+ 1.8%

+ 2.1%

1950

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The big squeeze on global water is expected to increase as

• Populations increase

Incomes increase

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By 2025 two thirds of the people in the world are expected to live in areas of water shortage or stress.

A Global Water Crises

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Virtual Water

• Water embedded in products

• Water used in production of product or service

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Now a global issue: virtual water flowsbetween world regions (average 1997–2001)

From Yang et al. unpublished; quoted in Zehnder

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Ship Virtual Water?

1 kg of wheat takes 1,000 liters of water to produce

Exporting wheat to an arid country avoids need for water in

that country

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Bottled Water is Not a Solution

• Americans spent $11 billion on bottled water in 2006

•Manufacturing 1 bottle of water takes

• 2 bottles of water to make plastic bottle

• 3-9 bottles of water for filtration process

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Systems Modeling Methods are Needed

SW = surface water; GW= groundwater; WTP =water treatment plant; P use = potable water use; NP use = nonpotable water use; ASR = aquifer storage and recharge; and WWTP = wastewater treatment plant

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Beirut, Lebanon• Integrated water supply

optimization model• Includes wastewater disposal,

and reuse options• Considers entire anthropogenic

water cycle• Considers both potable and

nonpotable sources

WATER SOURCES, s

Desalination

Rivers

Groundwater

Conventional:

Non-conventional:

CWWTP

Rain Harvesting

USES, u

MUN

IN

AGP

AGN

WASTE SITES, w

Centralized WastewaterTreatmentPlant (CWWTP)(via sewer system)

Groundwater(via infiltration)

Consumptive use

IP

MUP

gene

ral

AdvancedTreatment

SecondaryTreatment,Disinfection

LEGEND Water use sector

Reuse path

MU=municipal, AG=agricultural, I=industry, Subscript P=potable, Subscript N=nonpotable

Potable quality flow path

Nonpotable quality (or better) flow path Wastewater flow path

Onsite treatment

To Sea

A Systems Approach to Solving Flood Problems on Aberjona River

Mean Daily Streamflow vs. Water Year

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Apr-38 Jul-46 Oct-54 Dec-62 Mar-71 May-79 Aug-87 Oct-95 Jan-04

Water Year

Mea

n D

aily

Str

eam

flow

(cfs

)D

aily Streamflow

(cfs)Aberjona river discharges are on the rise

Where Should We Site Best Management Practices on Aberjona

River to Control Downstream Flooding?

Aberjona flood,Winchester Center

2001

113

Results

Potential BMP locations BMPs

25 50 100

150 200 400

Background Model BMP Optim. Results Concl.

114

Factors Influencing BMP Placement

High CN values

Large and impervious contributing areas

Flow arrival time resonance with other hydrologic response units

Background Model BMP Optim. Results Concl.

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SummaryWe can no longer ignore anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic cycle.

Water policy, science and engineering approaches must deal with a changing hydrosphere

All water textbooks need to be rewritten to include humans and to deal with nonstationarity due to climate change, urbanization and other human impacts

Hydrologic Extremes Without People

headwatersource

headwaterno-flow

terminal flow-through

terminal sink

P P

ETSW + GW

ET

SW + GW

SW + GW

(from Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2011, in prep.)

Rocky Mountains Sahara Dessert

Mouth of Columbia River

Mono Lake, CA

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Source-Sink Index

Weiskel, Vogel and Wolock, 2011

Sinks are rivers which lose water naturally moving downstream.

Extreme Hydrology With Humans

surcharged churned

undeveloped depleted

Hin Hin Hout

SW + GW

SW + GW

SW + GW

(from Weiskel, Vogel and others 2007)

Hout

Central Valley Aquifer

P ET

P - ET P - ET

P - ET