turbine supply agreements
DESCRIPTION
Turbine Supply Agreements. 30 October 2012, GIZ Workshop, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Contents. GL Garrad Hassan. 1. 2. Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability. 3. Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’. 4. Summary. Contents. GL Garrad Hassan. 1. 2. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Contents
GL Garrad Hassan1.
2.
3.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
4. Summary
Contents
GL Garrad Hassan1.
2.
3.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
4. Summary
Local understanding forms a global perspective
GL Garrad Hassan: 1,000+ staff, 44 locations, 26 countries
Vancouver
Ottawa
Portland
San Diego
Montreal
Peterborough
Austin
Querétaro
Porto Alegre
Santiago
Beijing
Seoul
Tokyo
Shanghai
Mumbai
Bangkok
Bangalore
Singapore
Newcastle
Wellington
Melbourne
Bristol Cork Paris
IzmirCairo
CopenhagenHinnerupOldenburgHamburgWarsaw
Lisbon Barcelona ZaragozaMadrid
Imola
LondonSlough
Glasgow
Cape Town
HeerenveenSint Maarten Kaiser-Wilhelm- Koog
Part of the GL Group: renewables, oil & gas, maritime
GL Garrad Hassan Capabilities
• The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy. It offers independent technical and engineering services, products, and training courses to the onshore and offshore wind, wave, tidal and solar sectors.
• Has been supporting investors in wind farms for over two decades. The detailed technical understanding of its experts provides a solid basis for informing intelligent decisions, regardless of the scale of the project or investment, or the lifecycle stage.
• Has worked with almost every major manufacturer. It has led the market for manufacturer services for many years and is continuously developing its industry standard turbine design software.
Wind: Experience MattersEnergy Assessment• analysing 20,000 MW of new projects per year• 25% of all projects worldwide• 70% of UK installed capacity• 75% of Irish installed capacity
Operational Assessment• 15% of the world’s installed capacity
Due Diligence• over 25% of the world’s project financed wind
farms• world’s largest wind farm portfolio acquisition• world’s first wind energy bond deal
Independent Engineer• 45% of US wind farms• The world’s five largest wind farm financings• The first project financed offshore wind farm
Short-term forecasting• over 20% of the world’s operational capacity
Measurements• power curve measurements on 500+ turbines• load measurements on 100+ turbines• founding member of MEASNET• first ever load measurements on offshore wind farm
Products / software solutions• Industry standard wind turbine design software -
Bladed• Bladed used to design world’s largest turbine• world‘s largest independent SCADA supplier – 6,000
MW
Offshore Wind• project management of world’s largest offshore wind
farm - Thanet
Contents
GL Garrad Hassan1.
2.
3.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
4. Summary
Environmental Criteria
Annual average air density kg/m3Max. temperature CMin. temperature CLightning Risk strikes/km2/yr Altitude a.s.l. MTerrain class Simple/complex Maximum slope deg.Corrosion classDust riskSeismic class
Annual mean wind speed at hub height (max.) m/s
Extreme 50-year wind speed 3 second gust m/s
Average turbulence intensity at hub height % (@ 15 m/s)
Turbine spacing Rotor Diameters
• The following site-specific environmental criteria should be considered when assessing turbine suitability:
IEC Classification
• Site specific characteristics should be compared to turbine class limits as defined in IEC 61400, as follows:
Certification Process
• Certification is used to give a standard measure of quality and is undertaken by recognised international classification bodies, including GL Renewables Certification.
• For wind projects, the certification process confirms conformity with design standards according to ‘IEC 61400’ part 1 – safety systems.
• Statement of Compliance for the A / B / C Design Assessment.
Certification Process
• Additional requirements exist in order to obtain Type Certification in accordance with IEC WT 01.
Certified Turbines
• A detailed list of certifications and references for wind turbines, offshore projects, condition monitoring systems / monitoring bodies, electrical components, foundations, gearboxes, grid code compliance, rotor blades, and towers can be from the GL Renewables Certification website.
• http://www.gl-group.com/en/certification/renewables/ListOfCertifications.php
Other Considerations
• When considering turbine suitability, consideration needs to be given to other factors including:• power curve and energy production (!!!)• planning compliance and development constraints.• electricity grid reliability and connection requirements.• site access, transportation and storage.• availability of installation and maintenance equipment (eg. cranes).• anticipated operating temperatures.• tropical storm activity.
Contents
GL Garrad Hassan1.
2.
3.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’’
4. Summary
SIT
E D
ISC
OV
ER
Y
DEVELOPMENT PHASE(0.5 to several years)
FIN
AC
IAL
CL
OS
E
CONSTRUCTION PHASE(12 to 18 months)
TA
KE
OV
ER
OPERATIONAL PHASE(20 to 25 years)
DIS
CO
NN
EC
TIO
N
CO
NC
LU
SIO
N
DECOMISSIONING PHASE(3 to 4 months)
CA
SH
FL
OW
MEDIUM RISK &LOW INVESTMENT
HIGH RISK & HIGH INVESTMENT
MEDIUM RISK & MEDIUMRETURN
MEDIUM RISK & HIGH
RETURN
LOW RISK & LOW RETURN
BREAK EVEN(loan repaid)
Wind Farm Project Cashflow
Wind Farm Investment Risks
• What are some of the key investment risks in a wind farm project?
Risk ExampleEnergy Measurement and Analysis
Deviation from base case due to uncertainty or error in the measurement and/or analysis?
Operating Performance Deviation from the base case due to machine breakdown or other reason to shut down turbines or the wind farm?
Technology Is it reliable and how much will it cost to operate?Cost Overrun Will there be an additional funding requirement for additional equipment or will the
contracts claim for additional costs?Delay Will the revenues start in time to pay the first loan repayment?Credit Risk What is the risk of bankruptcy of a counterpartyRegulation Is there a risk of change in green energy support pricing or grid regulation?Insurance Will it be available and at what price?Financial Is there a risk of interest rate and foreign exchange changes?Country Risks Political instability or regulation change. Also climate risks.
Initial Proposal
Initial Banking Model
Term Sheet
Credit Approval
Syndication
FIN
AC
IAL
C
LO
SE- 6
months- 5 months
- 2 months
- 1 month
Construction Draw Down
Detailed Banking Model, audit & tax
Basi
c Feasi
bili
ty
Model
+18 months
Operational Repayments
+ Xyears
Energy AssessmentDue Diligence (legal, technical, insurance)
Due DiligenceMonitoring
Due DiligenceMonitoring
Final Acceptance
Final Payment
Wind Farm Project Financing Timeline
Turbine Pricing
Global wind turbine price index by delivery date:
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance / International Renewable Energy Agency
Australia
United States
China
Japan
Effecting power output:
• Optimum Hub Height
• Optimum Blade diameter
• Proven Installation record
• Proven Availability record
• Proven component reliability
• Proven power & thrust curve
• Proven climate / icing control
• Correct IEC class, type certified
KEY CONSIDERATIONSTURBINE DESIGN
Turbine Technological Risk
Key Technical Considerations
• The key technical considerations for turbine selection include:• What is the Gearbox reliability?• What is the Generator reliability?• How much Capital cost is involved?• How much are the long term O&M costs?• What quality assurances are there?
Local Content
List of existing and proposed wind turbine manufacturing facilities in Vietnam:
Source: Make Consulting
A Proven Turbine Model?
• For a genuine evolution from a smaller turbine GL GH may consider that the turbine may be considered proven if the following conditions are met:• Capable of performing the contractual and commercial obligations.• Certification is current (and valid) – design, type (and class – I, II, III & S).• There are 100 turbines in operation.• At least one turbine with more than 10,000 hours of operation.• A fleet with in excess of 50,000 cumulative hours.• Greater than 95 % average availability of the fleet.• Availability of independent test reports (unless a commodity).
Contents
GL Garrad Hassan1.
2.
3.
Site Conditions & Turbine Suitability
Track Record, Quality & Turbine ‘Bankability’
4. Summary
Summary
• Demonstrate suitability for site - certification and site comparison.• Include certification requirements in specification.• Make sure that the designed turbine will be delivered as per specification.• Ensure independent test reports unless a “commodity”.• Choose a turbine with maximum track record.• Specify environmental, performance and reliability requirements.• Use the IEC standards as far as possible.• Ensure local / national compliance.
Thank-you!
Daniel Astbury – Senior Engineer, Business Development Manager – Thailand