Turbulence Diagnoses and Forecasts

Bob SharmanNCAR/RAL

Weather in the Cockpit Workshop8 August 2006

FAA AWRP Turbulence PDT work areas

• Develop/implement in situ turbulence observations– UAL, SWA, Delta

• Develop/implement remotely sensed turbulence observations– NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm

(NTDA)

• Develop turbulence nowcasting and forecasting systems– Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)– GTGN

• All products can be uplinked to the cockpit

In situ turbulence measurement and reporting program

Goal: To augment/replace subjective PIREPs with objective and precise turbulence measurements

Features:• Automatically computes

atmospheric turbulence intensities• Aircraft independent (eddy

dissipation rate, EDR)• Automatically downloads data

periodically during flight using ACARS network

• Can convert EDR to aircraft loads and vice versa given information about aircraft

• Adopted as ICAO Standard

UAL in-situ compared to pireps

NEXRAD in-cloud turbulence detection algorithm (NTDA)

In-cloud edr displayNEXRAD or TDWR

Cockpit display or radioed alert Dispatch, ATC, etc.

Graphic courtesy of virtualskies.arc.nasa.gov

EDR

TPAWS

NTDA status

• Ongoing verification against in situ data• Web-based display of NTDA product• Successful demonstration last summer

of NTDA text graphic uplink to selected UAL aircraft with character printer

EXP TURB FI UAL███████████-- 20 Oct 2005 22:08:57ZFL 360 orient. 95 deg'X'=aircraft, '+'=waypoint, '*'=route' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light'M'=mod, 'S'=severe---------(36nm to COWES)--------------- llll l*MMMMMMll112nm lll ll*llMMMMlll llM*MMMMMMMl108nm llM*MMlMMMMM llM*MMlllMM104nm lMM*llll Ml*l100nm l**l ll ol l*ll096nm llllllllll*lll llllllllllll*ll092nm llllllllllll*ll l llllllllll l*ll llllllll088nm lllllMllMMlll*l lllllllll lllMMMMMMll * lllllllllll084nm llllMMMMMMM ** llllllllllllll lllllMMMMMMl *llllllllllllllll080nm llllllMMMMM *llllllllllllllll llllMMlMMM l*lllllllllllllll076nm ollMMMlll l l*lllllllllllllll ollMMMllllllM*llll lllllll+STL llllllllllMMl+lll lllllll ll lll Mll*lll llllll068nm ll llllllMMll*lllM llllll lll lllllllll*llMM llllll064nm lll llllllll*llMM llllll l ll llllllll*lMMM lllMll060nm lll llllllllllM*MMM lllMMMl ll lllllllMMlM*M MMllMMMM056nm Ml llllllMMlM*M MlMMMMMM M l llllllMMlM*Ml MMMMMMMMM052nm l lllllllllllM*MlllMMMMMMMMMMM lll lllllllllllMM*MllMMMMMMMMMMMM048nm lll lll ollllllMM*MllMMMSSMMMMMMM llM llloollllllll*llllMMSSMMMMMMM044nm llMMMlllollllllll*llllMMMSSMMMMMM llMMM llll lllll*llllMMMMMMMlMMM040nm M lllllllllll*lllllMMMMMllMMM lllMMlllllll*llllllMMMlllllM036nm MMllMMll ll*llllllllllllllM MMMlMMll lll*lllllllllll032nm MMMllllll ool*l lll llll MMMlllllllol*l l028nm MMMllllllMMl* lMMlll MMl*024nm M M * M *020nm MMll * Mlllll ** MMM+WELTS llll + llMMM lll * llMMM012nm ll * llMM *008nm * *004nm * *valid ----------------X----------------2205Z -40nm (39.0N, 92.1W) +40nm

SFO-BWI 20 Oct 05

severeIn situ edr tracks NTDA

edrcontours

NTDA uplink message at 2208 UTC

/EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK-- 01 Jul 2006 22:08:10Z FL 360 orient. 88 deg'+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 43.2N, 86.3W' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe---------------------------(25 to EJOYS)------------------ll | *lll | *lll | *lll | *lll | *lll | lllll*lll l | ollll*lll M | oolll*llll | llll *lll +MONEE llllllll +lll l | ll llllll *lll l | llll lllllll*lllll l | oll lllllllll*lllll l | ool lllllllll *lll | lllllll *lll | llllll *lll l | llllllll *lll l | olllllllll *lll l | ooo lllllll *Mll | o lllllll *lll | lllll *lll | lloo *lol | *llo | *llo | *lll | *lll l | ll *lll l | lll *lll l +GRUBB lll +lll |040 ll *ll | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | *-------|---------valid----------X--------------------------90 +90|Left 40 2205Z (86 from BAE) Right 40

View toward left at about 2215 UTC

Radar at ~2215 UTC (deviation began at 2213)

NTDA turbulence display at 2210 UTC

TPDT forecasting

• Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) forecast product– Combines many

turbulence indicators + observations

– Rapid updates– 4D gridded output– ADDS displays– GTG2 early 2007– GTG3 early 2010

GTG1

GTG2

GTG4

GTG3

GTG4

GTG5

Turbulence nowcasting - GTGN

Satellite features

NTDA

Wind profilers

GTG 0-1 hr forecast

Real-time pireps

Real-time in situ data

Real-time ACARS

winds/temp

Lightning

Metars

3D data cube ofobserved/inferredturbulence updatedevery few minutes

Global GTG (TFO)

• Uses NOAA’s GFS model

• Diagnoses and forecasts of CAT > FL200

• Experimental product should be available by early 2008

• Example:– Upper: RUC20– Lower: GFS

07/06/2005 CIT (>FL200 in situ)

Summary

• Enhanced situational awareness for tactical decisions about turbulence avoidance can be provided through uplinks to the cockpit – In situ + pireps– NTDA AVAILABLE NOW!– GTG– GTGN (~ 5-10 min update)

• In-flight strategic planning can use GTG or TFO– Updated consistent with WRF, GFS forecast

cycles– Probabilistic forecasts

Demos…