turkey on the way to high income
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Turkey on the way to high income. Martin Raiser Country Director World Bank. Key Messages. Turkey has done well in the past decade Due to demographics, past reform efforts and relatively strong financial buffers Turkey is likely to do well in the next decade - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Turkey on the way to high income
Martin RaiserCountry Director
World Bank
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Key Messages
• Turkey has done well in the past decade
• Due to demographics, past reform efforts and relatively strong financial buffers Turkey is likely to do well in the next decade
• To avoid a growth slow-down at high income, Turkey needs to deepen structural reforms
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Turkey has done well because of economic integration
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Turkey has become part of the European Convergence Machine
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The Customs Union with the EU has made Turkish trade brainier
(a) Product composition (% of exports to EU-27) (b) Intra-industry trade (% of exports to EU-27)
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year
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Turkey has done well because of social inclusion
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The shift of economic activity to the East has played a big role in inclusion
Spatial distribution of newly created firms between 2007-2011
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Supported by public investments
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And improved public services
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Turkey’s prospects are favorable because of demographics
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But sustaining growth into high income is difficult
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And growth in Turkey has been volatile given dependence on foreign financing
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The middle income trap
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GDP per capita in 2011 constant PPP USD
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: deepen integration
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost productivity
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost energy efficiency
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Turkey
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Germany
UK
Denmark
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Energy Intensity (toe/000 2000 USD)
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost savings and contain growth in transfers
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost female employment
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What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: make institutions fit for high income
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Turkey: an emerging regional and global power
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Turkey: an emerging regional and global power
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The 20 largest economies in the world in 2011 and 2060 - OECD
Total GDP in 2011 USD, 2011 and 2060)