turkish sugar authority ankara, turkey 29 september 2005 “what is going on in the world of...
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Turkish Sugar AuthorityTurkish Sugar AuthorityAnkara, Turkey Ankara, Turkey
29 September 200529 September 2005
““What is going on in the World of Sugar?”What is going on in the World of Sugar?”
Dr Peter BaronDr Peter BaronExecutive DirectorExecutive Director
International Sugar OrganizationInternational Sugar Organization
Key DriversKey Drivers
• Demand Demand • SupplySupply• Government policy reform (unilateral and multilateral)Government policy reform (unilateral and multilateral)• Diversification (biofuel option, electricity cogeneration)Diversification (biofuel option, electricity cogeneration)• Emerging driversEmerging drivers
– Gene technologyGene technology– Biodegradable plasticsBiodegradable plastics– Climate change agendaClimate change agenda
Population and sugar Population and sugar consumptionconsumption
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Ind
ex (
1984=
1)
Population
Sugar consumption
Per capita consumption and per Per capita consumption and per capita incomecapita income
Per capita GDP and per capita sugar consumption, 2002
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Per capita GDP, USD
Per
cap
ita
con
sum
pti
on
, kg
Future sugar consumption growth Future sugar consumption growth by geographical regionby geographical region
Production and consumption Production and consumption
World Sugar Balance, in mln tonnes
110115120125130135140145150
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
October/September crop year
Production
Consumption
Sugar, IndiaSugar, India
Production, consumption and net trade
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,00019
94
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
To
nn
es
Production
Net Trade
Consumption
Sugar, BrazilSugar, Brazil
Brazil's sugar production and exports, mln tonnes
05
101520253035
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
October/September
Production
Exports
Cane to sugar and ethanol, Cane to sugar and ethanol, BrazilBrazil
Brazil: cane to sugar and alcohol
0
50
100
150
200
250
91/9
2
92/9
3
93/9
4
94/9
5
95/9
6
96/9
7
97/9
8
98/9
9
99/0
0
00/0
1
"01/0
2
"02/0
3
"03/0
4
"04/0
5
"05/0
6
mln
to
nn
es c
an
e
05101520253035404550556065707580
per
cen
t
cane to sugar cane to alcohol %cane to alcohol
Turkish Sugar AuthorityTurkish Sugar AuthorityAnkara, Turkey Ankara, Turkey
29 September 200529 September 2005
““What is going on in the World of Sugar?”What is going on in the World of Sugar?”
Dr Peter BaronDr Peter BaronExecutive DirectorExecutive Director
International Sugar OrganizationInternational Sugar Organization
ConclusionsConclusions • Consumption growth remains healthy
(2-2.25% per annum);• Production capacity in lower-cost
producing countries, particularly in Brazil, sufficient to meet consumption without depleting global stocks;
• By the end of this decade Sugar Policy Reform will have advanced to a point where higher-cost, uncompetitive production falters and subsidised exports, as well as market access restrictions, disappear;
Conclusions
• Ethanol programmesEthanol programmes will, in the future, will, in the future, compete more aggressively for sugar crops, compete more aggressively for sugar crops, providing another revenue stream for many providing another revenue stream for many sugar industries;sugar industries;
• Sugar industries which Sugar industries which cannot embrace cannot embrace changechange by improving productivity and by improving productivity and efficiency will be under serious threat.efficiency will be under serious threat.
