turning challenges in to opportunities...to represent, lead and serve the airline industry turning...
TRANSCRIPT
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To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
Turning challenges in to opportunities ICAO Global Aviation Cooperation Symposium Montreal, 3 October 2014 George Anjaparidze, Senior Economist www.iata.org/economics
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Key points • Where we started. Where we are now. Where we are headed?
• Focus on value creation for the consumer
• Opportunities with the ANSP: – Top down assessment shows value being wasted due to inefficiency
– Bottom up assessment shows lots of cost effective opportunities
• Opportunities with airports: – Partner to improve passenger experience
– Maintaining vigilance on costs
• Regulation - creating the enabling environment
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 2
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Commercial aviation100 years ago
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 3
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Commercial aviation today
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In one year…
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$6.4 trillion value of cargo
handled by airlines
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Impressive growth with continued demand
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 6
Source: ICAO, IATA, Boeing
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Air traffic growth varies by market
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 7
Source: Boeing
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Top down analysis points to opportunity for value creation
2/3 of economic cost are not service charge related
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 8
Source: IATA, Canso, Eurocontrol
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2020 potential for cost-effective CO2 cuts Bottom-up modelling suggests a further 92mT of CO2 could
be cut in 2020 with costs less than the cost of carbon
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 9
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Cost benefit analysis is critical
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 10
• Setting boundaries – must include aircraft equipage
• Critical but should not be applied blindly
• Benefit Cost ratio can assess competing projects
• Focus on improvement not just new technologies
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Partner to improve the passenger experience
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 11
Source: blogs.ncr.com
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Regulation - creating the enabling environment
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 13
• Consumer minded
• Ensure a fair return for investors without compromising consumer interest
• Promoting consultation to ensure user needs are at the center of decision making
• Incentivizing improvement in operations
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IATA economics a source for industry insight:
www.iata.org/economics
IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 14
Commercial Products • World Air Transport Statistics (WATS) • 5 year “consensus” Freight Forecast (coming soon) • Long term passenger forecast (coming soon) Market Developments and Outlook • Airline Industry Economic Performance • Market developments Public Policy Issues • Economic benefits of air transport • Bali Trade Deal Impact on Air Freight Market & Industry Issues • Profitability and the Air Transport Value Chain • Mode shift – Impact on Air Cargo