tut w3c web technology day: location and positioning the ... · the future of positioning:...

© GMV, 2013 Property of GMV

All rights reserved

THE FUTURE OF POSITIONING: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

TUT W3C Web Technology Day: Location and Positioning

11th September, 2013, TUT, Tampere, Finland

Manuel Toledo López

© GMV, 2013

WHAT IS GMV TODAY

A high technology multinational conglomerate, founded in 1984, with presence in Spain, USA, Portugal, Germany, Poland, India, Romania and Malaysia.

GMV technology is deployed in 6 continents

110M€ (total revenue)

75M€ (space-related)

Over 1.000 employees worldwide

€

The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges 2013/09/11

© GMV, 2013

GMV TODAY: MARKETS

GMV is a leading provider of high technology engineering, expert support services and turn-key IT systems and solutions for these markets:

Aeronautics

Space

Defense

IT Security

Healthcare

Transportation

IT & Telecommunications

The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges 2013/09/11

© GMV, 2013

GMV IN THE GNSS MARKETS

Pioneers in European GNSS initiatives since 1987

GMV has become a key provider of operational and critical GNSS systems as well as a leading provider of GNSS applications and services in the transportation market.

Main reference as developer of the key EGNOS and Galileo ground segment processing facilities: CPF, OSPF, IPF…

Leader supplier of Fleet Management Systems, AIS

Tools & SW Receivers for GNSS system and applications

2013/09/11 The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges


All rights reserved

INTRODUCTION

© GMV, 2013 2013/09/11 The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges

INTRODUCTION

-2007

2007-2010

2010-2025

2025-

GPS GPS

GLONASS

WAAS

GPS

GLONASS

GALILEO

COMPASS

WAAS

EGNOS

GAGAN

SDCM

QZSS

IRNSS

……

PPP, RTK, Inertial Sensors, WiFi, UWB,

Augmentations, Regional Systems, etc.


All rights reserved

GNSS MARKET AND BUSINESS OVERVIEW

© GMV, 2013 2013/09/11

GNSS INDUSTRY SEGMENTS/ACTORS

Downstream sector (exploit the technology)

GNSS Service Providers

Insurance and Finance

Satellite Operators

Ground Station Operators

Upstream sector (provide the technology)

Space Segment Primes (Large System Integrators)

Subsystem suppliers

Equipment suppliers

Ground Segment Primes (G/S Integrator)

Research & Consultancy

Subsystem suppliers

Equipment suppliers

GNSS Receivers

(chipsets, modules, devices)

GNSS Applications

The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges

© GMV, 2013

UPSTREAM BIGGEST INDUSTRIAL PLAYERS

2013/09/11

72,000 employees 25 $Bn sales 2010

WAAS, GAGAN, GPS-OCX 68,000 employees

13,1 €Bn sales 2010 EGNOS, Galileo GMS, GBAS

N/A employees N/A sales 2010

GLONASS, SDCM

JSC-RSS

23,935 employees 38,6 $Bn sales 2010

MSAS


LAAS

*Satellite manufacturers not included


GPS

15,000 employees N/A €Bn sales 2010

Galileo, GBAS


http://www.raytheon.com/

© GMV, 2013

DOWNSTREAM BIGGEST MANUFACTURERS

2013/09/11

2,200 employees

1,2 $Bn sales 2010

4,727 employees

1,3 $Bn sales 2010

350 employees

N/A sales 2010

N/A employees

N/A sales 2010

3,500 employees

N/A sales 2010

1,500 employees

0,8 $Bn sales 2010

8,897 employees

2,7 $Bn sales 2010 400 employees

WE WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE DOWNSTREAM MARKET

LBS Chipsets: Broadcomm (US) CSR-SiRF (EU-US) Texas Instruments (US) Qualcomm (US) Infineon (US) ST Micro (EU) Ublox (EU)


© GMV, 2013

GNSS is a high-tech industry with a military component

GNSS systems cost is not usually considered as part of the GNSS market:

– Total cost of GPS: $26 billion up to 2006

The low-price commodity end of the market includes companies that design and develop GNSS chipsets and Rx modules:

– Represent largest number of GPS Rx sold…

– But do not represent the largest revenue segment

The integrated systems segment includes HW solutions that combine GNSS and other HW

Services segment includes GNSS-based services (e.g.; corrections) and services to GPS companies (e.g.; test equipment)

GNSS MARKET CHARACTERISTICS


© GMV, 2013

Assumes that signals will be free-of-charge

Sales range from very small, low cost items to very expensive systems

Broad nature of applications: Nearly no limit to the potential demand for GNSS sensors, just human ingenuity

Enabler for new products and applications that need accurate PVT, but:

– Most users not concerned about position and time but on potential use of it

– Most users not aware of limitations such as accuracy, integrity etc.

Volatile: Market can be largely influenced by many outside forces:

– GNSS denial (e.g. S/A) for military reasons,

– changes in national priorities resulting in fewer satellites, replenishment delays etc

– Raise of vulnerability concerns

UNIQUE ASPECTS OF THE GNSS MARKET


© GMV, 2013

Multi-faceted market, difficult to characterize

Different market segmentations considered in the literature:

GNSS MARKET SEGMENTS

2013/09/11

Per Technology

HW

SW

Services

Per Customer

Civil

Military

Per Application

Military

Automobile Navigation

Cell Phones

Vehicle Tracking

High Accuracy

Aviation

Marine

Recreation

Purchase Decision

Consumer

Professional

Industrial & Scientific


© GMV, 2013

GLOBAL GNSS MARKET SIZE (GSA REPORT)

2013/09/11

>3 million jobs rely on GPS technology…

130,000 jobs in GPS manufacturing industries

>3 million in the downstream commercial GPS-intensive industries

Direct economic benefits of GPS technology on commercial GPS users:

In the range of 100 $Bn per year only in the US

SATURATION, PRICE EROSION


Sou

rce:

GS

A

© GMV, 2013

MAIN GNSS MARKET SEGMENTS (GSA REPORT)

2013/09/11

SoL Services

The biggest

high precision

niche

The biggest market

The biggest seller


Sou

rce:

GS

A

© GMV, 2013

EU SHIPMENTS OF GNSS DEVICES AND EXPECTED PENETRATION (GSA REPORT)

2013/09/11

LBS

Agriculture Road

Aviation

Surveying

Maritime


Sou

rce:

GS

A


All rights reserved

GNSS SYSTEMS CURRENT STATUS AND EVOLUTIONS

© GMV, 2013

GNSS POSITIONING ACCURACIES


Floating ambiguity fixing,

with Precise Orbits and clocks

solving ionosphere

GPS, GLONASS

GALILEO, GPS III

5 cm

10 cm

20 cm

1 m

20 km 500 km Baseline

Accura

cy

3 m

Sm

ooth

ed

Pseudora

nge

Carr

ier

Phase

Integer ambiguity fixing, With Precise Orbits, solving ionosphere Integer RTK,

TCAR/MCAR

SBAS (EGNOS, WAAS)

GBAS CAT I

Worldwide

10 m

Pseudora

nge

Floating RTK,

TCAR/MCAR In Postprocessing

GBAS CAT III

50 cm

WARTK

JPALS

Floating RTK,

TCAR/MCAR

PPP

In Real Time (with IGS-RT)

© GMV, 2013

GNSS POSITIONING ACCURACIES

Meter level: 2-10 m

Unaugmented standard Positioning Service

Accuracy driven by geometry, clock and ephemeris errors and propagation effects

SBAS GBAS etc.

Decimeter level: < 1 m

Local Area (GBAS, DGPS) or Wide Area Augmentation (EGNOS, WAAS etc)

Positioning based on single-frequency code measurements

Centimeter level: < 10 cm

Positioning based on dual-frequency phase measurements

Techniques: RTK or PPP

GPS, GLONASS, Galileo etc.

SPS

RTK, PPP


© GMV, 2013 The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges

GNSS SYSTEMS. CURRENT STATUS AND EVOLUTIONS

The current situation in terms of PDOP (geometry):

A significant benefit is achieved when using more than one constellation, geometric performances improve by a factor of two at any location

2013/09/11

GPS (2,49) GPS & GLONASS (1,46)



In the near future the situation in terms of PDOP (geometry) would be:

Going from two to more than two constellations does not provide the same level of improvement than when going from one to two constellations

2013/09/11

GPS & GLONASS (1,46) GPS, GLONASS & COMPASS (1,14)

GPS, GLONASS & GALILEO (1,09) GPS, GLONASS, COMPASS &

GALILEO (0,86)



2013/09/11

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

PD

OP

Number of MEO (GPS-like) satellites

PDOP (5 deg)

PDOP (30 deg)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240

PD

OP

Number of MEO (GPS-like) satellites

PDOP (5 deg)

PDOP (30 deg)

Geometric performances improve in an asymptotic manner with the number of satellites

Under nominal visibility conditions acceptable PDOP values can be achieved with constellations with 30-60 satellites

In urban canyons the availability of 60-90 satellites will be needed to provide acceptable performances

Taking into account the systems under development today we may have more than 120 satellites over the next 10-15 years

This is probably more than what is needed to provide the required performances

It may be wiser to improve performances:

– Improving user positioning algorithms

– Going to regional systems combined with additional services


All rights reserved

REGIONAL SYSTEMS AND AUGMENTATIONS, SBAS

© GMV, 2013

QUASI-ZENITH SATELLITE SYSTEM


Regional Satellite Systems are proposed to complement GPS

© GMV, 2013

IRNSS: INDIAN REGIONAL NAVIGATION SATELLITE SYSTEM


© GMV, 2013 2013/09/11 The Future of Positioning: Opportunities and Challenges

THE LCNSS CONCEPT

A LCNSS consists of:

Reduced constellation (5–10 satellites)

Limited ground segment (over target area)

LCNSS Objective

LCNSS Feature

Low Cost Simplified ground & space

segments

Independence Regional systems

(ground deployment, target area)

Autonomy Navigation solution provided in

absence of GNSS

Interoperability Able to interoperate with

GNSS (improved performances)

© GMV, 2013

AUGMENTATION CONCEPT - SBAS

Objective: provide ranging, integrity and correction data for complementing GNSS navigation information

Composed of: – Ground infrastructure

– Communication infrastructure (geo satellites)

– SBAS receivers

The development and deployment of a complete SBAS system for a given region is challenging: – Technical complexity

– Significant investment (100-250 M€)

– Long process (about a decade for systems like WAAS or EGNOS)

This may discourage other regions to deploy an SBAS in favor of other non-GNSS based solutions

2013/09/11



All rights reserved

FUTURE SATELLITE NAVIGATION SYSTEMS


FUTURE SYSTEMS. INTRODUCTION

The main challenge is to envisage how a future GNSS may look like:

If we consider the additional augmentation and regional systems plus the new emerging positioning techniques our answer is:

2013/09/11

When defining a future system we need to take into account not only technical aspects but also other considerations

It can be seen that when GPS, GLONASS, COMPASS and Galileo will become operational around 40 satellites will be in view at any location

40 satellites are more than enough to ensure redundancy and the increase in performances do not justify the associated costs

Do we need four complete Global Navigation Satellite Systems?

No


FUTURE SYSTEMS: PROPOSED APPROACH

2013/09/11

We suggest a reduction in the number of satellites in the future evolutions of the current systems without neglecting political and redundancy considerations

The following is proposed:

To maintain MEO orbits to ensure global coverage

To complement the global constellations with regional complements

To have only one global constellation, with contributions from different systems


FUTURE SYSTEMS

For critical applications (e.g. requiring safety), a combination of RAIM, other user integrity concepts, like PPP integrity, plus a regional SBAS system could be the optimum solution

New generation SBAS systems taking profit of the multi-constellation and multi-frequency environments will be developed

Regional navigation systems must be considered to optimize the overall cost together with Ground Segment improvements

Further relevant improvements will come from the algorithms to be implemented at user/application level

The user positioning algorithms will be modified to take profit of the new coming GNSS systems and the latest advances in PPP techniques.

All user equipments will be multisystem and multi frequency

Use of phase instead of pseudoranges

Contrary to HS, directly visible satellites enable PPP algorithms at user level

2013/09/11


All rights reserved

FUTURE GNSS POSITIONING ALGORITHMS: PRECISE POINT POSITIONING (PPP)


PPP BRIEF DESCRIPTION

2013/09/11

Dual frequency GNSS receiver

PPP processing algorithm

Precise ephemeris

and clocks

Communication link

PPP processing algorithm

Detailed models Estimation filter o PVT o Ambiguities o Troposphere o Integrity

Absolute Position

Communication link

© GMV, 2013

1. Global coverage:

– PPP uses precise orbits, clocks, and positioning models valid everywhere

– Suitable for land, sea and air users

2. Requires fewer reference stations:

– PPP does not require near “base” stations, 15 stations worldwide!

– Reduced cost of deployment, operation and maintenance

3. Same performance level everywhere

– Independent from distance to reference stations

– Not conditioned by altitude difference between stations and user/rover

4. Scalable:

– Regional solutions can be implemented

5. Simplified processing:

– Fewer data to process and manage

– Simplified operation, no need to deal with virtual stations and multiple baselines

6. Integrity & reliability:

– Protection levels below 50 cm could be achieved

PPP ADVANTAGES


© GMV, 2013

PPP PERFORMANCES Some simulations have been performed to:

– Analyse the new multi constellation environments

– To identify the performance drivers

– More than one constellation helps improving the PPP performances

– The addition of a third or fourth constellation does not significantly improve the performances


0.00E+00

5.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.50E-01

2.00E-01

2.50E-01

90

0

18

00

27

00

36

00

45

00

54

00

63

00

72

00

81

00

90

00

99

00

10

80

0

PP

P P

roce

ss A

ccu

racy

(m

)

Observation Time (s)

GPS

GPSGLO

GPSGLOGAL

GPSGLOGALCOM

© GMV, 2013

LBS AND INDOOR POSITIONING CONTEXT GNSS has limited performances in harsh environments, or even it is not

usable in GNSS denied environments

Many application domains are not satisfactory only with GNSS

However LBS and indoor have not yet emerged (B2B nor B2C) until now at the expected growth rate, pending of:

– Feasibility of application requirements

– Business models maturity

There is a challenge to meet LBS and indoor requirements: – Due (High) performances (accuracy, reliability) for the intended application – Seamless availability along Urban and Indoor environments – With a credible technical solution: single, universal, robust, no complex – At Low Cost (critical to enable B2C or mass market widespread adoption)

Business models concerns: Other enabler factors: – Costs of devices, deployment and maintenance – Indoor maps, context contents, together with positioning, for apps – Positioning data management to control revenues and privacy – Revenues model for the Service Provider and for the App User

Indoor market will grow and emerge when seamless positioning

get available with reliable accuracy at affordable prices

2013/09/11


© GMV, 2013

LBS AND INDOOR POSIBILITIES

Foundations of Location-based Services (Steinger, Neun, Edwardes), modified)

location-based

services

Information

Tracking

Navigation

Games

Leisure

Billing

Emergency

Advertising

Management

emergency calls

automotive assistance

banners & alerts

road tolling

customer relationship

Infrastructure

fleet (scheduling)

environmental

security

facility

buddy finder instant

messaging

mobile games

geocaching

shopping guides

travel & tourist guides

mobile yellow pages

travel planner

people & vehicle tracking

product tracking

directions indoor routing

car park assistance

traffic management

Communications

location-aware call handling


2013/09/11

© GMV, 2013

LOCATION TECHNOLOGIES (outdoor and indoor) GPS - Global Positioning System

AGPS - Assisted GPS

Cell ID

Cell ID + Timing Advance

Signal Strength Based

RF Fingerprinting (for WLAN on phones)

AOA - Angle Of Arrival

TOA - Time Of Arrival

TDOA - Time Difference of Arrival

EOTD - Enhanced Observed Time Difference

Dead reckoning with Device Motion Sensors

Visual Navigation (Camera based signs recognition)

Map Matching

Keypad based (click the address yourself)

Hybrid solutions

IS THERE A UNIVERSAL

COMBINATION?

Seamless

Connectivity independent

Non propietary

Energy Efficient

Accurate

GPS

DGPS

AGPS

Cell ID + TA

10cm 30cm 1m 3m 10m 30m 100m 300m 1Km 3Km 10Km 30Km

Position Accuracy

Geo

grap

hy

Indoor

Suburban

Urban

Dense Urban

Rural

Remote

UTDOARTK, PPPGPS

UWB

2G

2G+4G

GNSS

WLAN & BT

E-OTD(TOA)

OTDOA

UTDOA

WLAN

WLANZone

BT zone

AGPS

3G


2013/09/11

© GMV, 2013

USER POSITIONING ALGORITHMS APPROACH GNSS performances are obtained in open sky environments but the majority of the potential users are in urban and indoor conditions (70-80%)

The future availability of multiple constellations will improve the situation, but a robust positioning solution in harsh environments have to be implemented not only by using HS-GNSS or multiconstellation, but also by combining this technology with data coming from external sensors:

MEMS inertial accelerometers and rate gyros or odometers)

communication infrastructures (e.g. cellular networks, WiFi, UWB, DVB, etc.).

The most promising approaches would:

Extend the applicability of Service based high precision techniques like PPP to the urban scenarios exploiting the muticonstellation to maximize the availability of in view satellites

combined with the adequate hybridization with other sensors to ensure the quality and continuity of the underlying carrier phase based navigation.


Galileo PPP results, positioning accuracy

© GMV, 2013

MOBILE LBS IS TAKING OFF Improvement in navigation performance

Leading smartphones display a host of technologies to improve position performance:

– Assisted-GPS to reduce Time To First Fix

– Magnetic compass

– Highly sensitive GPS/GLONASS/SBAS chipset

– Wi-Fi, cellular and hybrid positioning as back-up

– Motion sensors and gyroscopes for tilt

– Map matching for road use

Some facts: Google 30% of all internet searches are looking for places, rising to 40%

when via mobile platform Google Maps for Mobile is widely adopted in several OS Android Play Google grows already in size over iphone app store 28% of all Apps can access location. The number of Android

applications classed as LBS grew tenfold during 2010 iPhone > 35% of all Apps could access location. The most popular

categories of Apps are navigation and travel

2013/09/11


© GMV, 2013

LBS VALUE CHAIN (GSA REPORT)

Vertical integration by leading smartphone vendors

2013/09/11

Vertical integration


Sou

rce:

GS

A

© GMV, 2013

LBS MARKET FORECAST (GSA REPORT)

Market development is driven by the increasing affordability of LBS devices and applications:

Price erosion and reduced power consumption of GNSS chipsets and other device sensors

Rich content is now free of charge (road data) or increasingly available (indoor maps and data) at the point of use thereby opening up its usage to a much wider population of users

So, new applications such as mobile commerce, social networking and location based games are becoming widespread

2013/09/11

GNSS LBS revenues

• Only 1% of device price is due to GNSS

• By 2020, core revenues will be dominated by service revenues, outweighing device

revenues 100 to 1.


Sou

rce:

GS

A

© GMV, 2013

INDOOR APPS MARKET WITHIN LBS MARKET

Mobile phone industry will set location trends, enabling indoor maket: – 80% mobiles use is indoors - Mobiles are Multi location tech. devices

Indoor market dimension: (2013 status and forecast)

– $448.6M (2013) to $2.6b (2018) (CAGR 42,1%)

– Mobiles position based apps “Out-of-Box” are only 20% of revenues

– 80% mobiles position market for ad-hoc 3rd party B2B, B2C solutions

– North America is the near term big market. Europe in longer term

Automotive is the second big sector, with e-call and RUC opportunities: – Previously tractor, now it will be technologically subsidiary to mobile industry

2013/09/11

0

1

2

3

4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Commercial vehicles telematics units (in millions)

eCall LCV units

Road charging units

Stand alone PAYD insurance units

LCV FMS units

H&MGV FMS units

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Market for location technologies

in consumer devices (M€)

Positioning sensors (MEMS)

WPS device sales

Network location infrastructure

CE GNSS chipsets

New markets to explode


2010 forecast 20

10

fo

recast

© GMV, 2013

INDOOR MARKET STRUCTURE POSITIONING ENGINES

Urban WiFi Location Services:

Google

Skyhook

Navizon

Apple

Verizon Wireless

Indoor Bluetooth zone based:

WirelessWERX

Indoor WiFi / RFID Tracking:

AeroScout

Ekahau

Ubisense

Indoor Device Centric (WiFi..): Qubulus IndoorAtlas

Fraunhoffer GMV

PolarStar

END CUSTOMER APPLICATIONS Indoor Maps & Apps

Without Location:

Micello FastMall Navteq

With Location:

Google Point Inside Insiteo PlayAdz

2013/09/11

Emerging

Current

Building to place Level

Free

B2B accurate Indoor

Expensive

Emerging Indoor


© GMV, 2013

INDOOR MARKET STRUCTURE POSITIONING ENGINES

Urban WiFi Location Services:

Google

Skyhook

Navizon

Apple

Verizon Wireless

Indoor Bluetooth zone based:

WirelessWERX

Indoor WiFi / RFID Tracking:

AeroScout

Ekahau

Ubisense

Indoor Device Centric (WiFi..): Qubulus IndoorAtlas

Fraunhoffer GMV

PolarStar

END CUSTOMER APPLICATIONS Indoor Maps & Apps

Without Location:

Micello FastMall Navteq

With Location:

Google Point Inside Insiteo PlayAdz

Indoor Market Status: Immature, emerging, Start-up’s

Costly deployment and operation:

– Ad-hoc Location network infrastructure of WiFi or BT nodes

– WiFi fingerprinting or BT zone maintenance!

– Accurate tracking solutions imply costly Middleware “Indoor LBS” platforms

Standards on way:

– No Interoperability

– No “plug-and-play”

2013/09/11

Emerging

Current


© GMV, 2013

As a conclusion we envisage the future as a combination of:

• Only one classical GNSS global system constituted by different contributions from different countries or regions

• A set of regional navigation satellite systems, to improve geometrical configuration and to transmit navigation information or additional services in the region

• A set of SBAS systems, integrated with the satellite regional complements and associated ground segments, to provide Safety of Life Services

• New positioning algorithms at user level:

– Benefiting from the availability of multi-constellation, dual frequency phase GNSS measurements

– Complemented with non satellite navigation techniques which integration will be matured by the mobile industry for the urban environment

• Mobile industry will be the tractor for the standards for

– Services for, and integration of, positioning techniques

– Use of the positioning information for all consumer and regulated applications as well as for many professional markets


CONCLUSIONS

tut w3c web technology day: location and positioning the ... · the future of positioning:...

Documents