PREV ’AIR :An operational system for large scale air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe

http://www.prevair.org

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Two main objectives

• Diagnostic and prospective studies in the field of atmospheric air pollution at the European scale

Technical support to the French Ministry for Ecology in the framework of international negotiations about transboundary air pollution (implementation of integrated policies aiming at reducing pollutant emissions in Europe)

• Delivery of a daily information related to air quality over France and Europe

To complement the national air quality monitoring network (~40 AASQA, >2000 sensors, >700 stations)

Architecture of the PREV’AIR System

3D Chemistry Transport Models...

• CHIMERE / IPSL-CNRS-INERIS

• MOCAGE / METEO-FRANCE

… Driven by meteorological forecasts

• AVN / NCEP global data (+ MM5 higher resolution forecasts)

• ARPEGE, ALADIN

Other input data

• Emissions inventory EMEP EDGAR

• Boundary concentrations MOZART+GOCART MOCAGE

• NRT observations data from local AQ monitoring associations (BASTER / ADEME database...)

Chemical forecasts

Low and high resolution meteorological forecasts

Numerical AQ forecast data

Forecasts (maps)

BASTER

Analysis (maps)

Observations (maps), scores

Other NRT dataA S QA A

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The BASTER Near Real-Time Data Base

National web site PREV ’AIR

41 French AQ related organisms (AASQA)

"real time" national database BASTER

AASQA web sites

Local servers

680 monitoring stations

ADEME

hour

LOCAL NATIONAL

O3

NO2

SO2

PM10

PM2.5

The CHIMERE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

• Domains Over Europe Over France

Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa

• Meteorological forecast data

AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts (36km)

• Chemical scheme MELCHIOR reduced (~45 species, ~120 reactions)

• Aerosol module Dust, PPM, SOA, nitrates, sulphates, ammonium, Water Contents 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase)

Other model configurations: meteorology: ECMWF, ARPEGE / ALADINBC: MOZART, LMDZ-INCA, GOCART See http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere

The MOCAGE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR

• Domains

Global Model / Over Europe / Over France Horizontal resolution: 4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1°

Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hP

• Meteorological forecast data ARPEGE and ALADIN

• Chemical scheme RACMOBUS (118 species, 381 reactions)

• No aerosol module

• Available at D+0, 01-06 h LT

• Daily peak and averaged concentration maps

D+0, D+1, D+2

• Pollutants: O3, NO2, particulate matter• Global scale, Europe, France

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+0

PREV’AIR Outputs: Daily Forecasts

O3, peak forecast (µg/m3)

20040729 D+0

User part:- Output from both models over Europe and France- In summer, statistically adapted O3 fields

PREV’AIR Outputs: Scores

Summer 2004, PM10 daily mean concentrations

Summer 2004O3 daily peak concentrations

User part:- Maps- Time series

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Numerical Forecast Data

• PREV’AIR numerical data Extraction over user-defined domains Available through the Internet for AQ related institutions (user accounts)

• Applications 3D data: BC for local AQ simulations : ESMERALDA (Ile-de-France area), AIRES (PACA region), … 2D data: for AQ monitoring and forecast (interpolation, statistical modelling)

• Feed-back from PREV’AIR users Meetings with AQ networks for system improvement Day-by-day debriefing about forecasts

...Up to now, about 40 users

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Maps of NRT observations

Daily mean concentrations of PM10 at surface measured on the 12nd of September 2004

• Maps of measured daily peak and mean concentrations:

O3, NO2, PM2.5 and PM0 Observations performed

between 0h and t For D+0 and the previous

six days

• Modelled concentrations corrected with observations:

Observations collected in real-time for 150 stations

Statistical adaptation: kriging method Available at D+0 for D+0 and D-1

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Analyses

July 31, 2004

O3 simulation (µg/m3) O3 corrective field (µg/m3)

03 simulation corrected by observations (µg/m3)

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PREV’AIR Analyses: Scores

Summer 2003, O3 daily peak concentrations

13 rural stations67 suburban stations179 urban stations

PREV ’AIR Outputs: Annual BudgetsOzone, averaged peak (µg/m3)

during summer 2003Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the

180 µg/m3 threshold during summer 2003

Ozone, # of hours of exceedance of the 240 µg/m3 threshold during summer

2003

Future developments

• Coming soon: Set up of summer 2005 forecast season Implementation of the last CHIMERE version (V200501G) with LMDZ-INCA BC

• Better accounting for observations: Analyzed concentrations to initialize the forecast Feasability study for PM10 concentrations analysis Feasability study for data assimilation of 3D data (LIDAR, satellites)

• Ensemble forecast: Multi model forecast (hybridization methods)