two stages in azerbaijan in terms of energy diplomacy
DESCRIPTION
Azerbaijan ’ s Energy Diplomacy: Balancing North and South, Going West Dr. Elnur Soltanov, IFDT, Baku, 2012. Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy. Diplomacy serving Energy - 1990s Energy serving Diplomacy – 2000s. Different options. Energy as a tool of diplomacy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Azerbaijan’s Energy Diplomacy: Balancing North
and South, Going West
Dr. Elnur Soltanov, IFDT, Baku, 2012
Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy
Diplomacy serving Energy - 1990s
Energy serving Diplomacy – 2000s
Different options
Energy as a tool of diplomacy
Energy as the tool of diplomacy
Energy as the context of diplomacy
Not in par with agricultural, demographic or healthcare policies
The framework determining the foreign policy identity of the country
Energy policy has not been the purpose though
The main and the most important aspect of the oil/gas factor: consolidation of sovereignty
Two major issues vis-à-vis this goal in 1990s:
1. Nagorno Karabakh
2. Oil and Gas
Prosperous and Stable Azerbaijan
Consolidated Sovereignty
Now, it is time to settle the dispute
What energy means regionally and globally?
Georgia, Turkey: Blessing
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan: Support
EU and the US: Security
Russia and Iran: Concern
Price paid by Azerbaijan: Nagorno Karabakh
Imitating the successes of oil policy while applying the lessons learned in the process
Maintain the overall position achieved already: the energy situation is good enough
Repeat the success of oil in gas deals
Bear in mind that the current situation is beneficial enough
Keep Russia and Iran satisfied
Cement the relationship with progressive countries
Keep alternatives open: as long as cost effective
Managing relations with Turkey: too many eggs, but also the most reliable
Keeping healthy relations with Georgia
Rate of extraction vs. Rate of new findings
Peak oil and gas?
This could intensify exploration in new fields – a potential for conflict in the Caspian
Turkey: doing well and relaxed a. already feeling like an energy transit
country Lucrative and politically strategic deals
with Russia Knows it is the best option
Azerbaijan: doing well and relaxed a. earning more than $10 billion a year;
in some ways more than its economy could absorb
$30 billion in the oil fund Less sure knows Turkey well enough