tyson greer - the 2013-2018 worldwide game-based learning and simulation-based markets
Post on 20-Oct-2014
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This session will present key findings from Ambient Insight’s latest market research. This presentation provides an overview of the current global Game-based Learning industry including revenue forecasts, technology trends, innovations, business models, market catalysts and inhibitors, and buying behavior in specific segments. The demand for Game-based Learning is different in each buyer segment in specific countries in the world and the audience will learn about innovations that appeal to specific buyers. Special attention will be given to North America and Asia due to the substantial revenues being generated in those regions. Identifying the buyer can be a daunting task in the Game-based Learning market and this session will provide a breakout by buying segment for these two regions.TRANSCRIPT
Ambient Insight 2014
The 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning and Simulation-based Markets
Key Findings from Recent Ambient Insight Research
Serious Play Conference 2014
July 22, 2014
Tyson Greer, Chief Executive Officer
Ambient Insight
Ambient Insight 2014
Agenda
Introductions - Research Taxonomy
Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Revenues
Worldwide Game-based Learning Revenues and Buying Behavior
Game-based Learning Investment Patterns
Ambient Insight 2014
Partial List of Ambient Insight’s Clients
Adobe
Amazon
Amplify
Apple
Blackboard
BrainPOP
British Council
Cambridge University Press
Chungdahm Learning
Cisco
Dell
Disney
Hasbro
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
IBM
John Wiley & Sons
McGraw-Hill
Macmillan
Microsoft
Oxford University Press
Pearson
Rosetta Stone
Ambient Insight is an integrity-based market research firm that uses predictive analytics to identify revenue opportunities for suppliers.
Ambient Insight 2014
Ambient Insight’s Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
Have Eight Buyer Segments
From Six Types of Suppliers
That Buy Eight Types of Digital Learning Products
Packaged Content
Consumer PreK-12Corporations - Businesses
Higher Education
Federal Government
State - Local Government
Associations & Non-Profits Healthcare
Custom Content
Cloud-basedTools & Platforms
Value AddedServices (VAS)
Installed Tools & Platforms
Learning Devices
Digital Video, Text, & Audio
Reference
Self-paced eLearning
Courseware
Collaboration-based
Learning
Simulation-based
Learning
Cognitive Learning
Mobile Learning
Social Learning
Game-based Learning
These six supplier types map directly to the six subcategories of learning technology products
Seven International RegionsNorth
AmericaLatin
AmericaEastern Europe
Western Europe
Asia Africa The Middle East
Ambient Insight 2014
Game-based Learning is a Subset of the Learning Technology Industry
Ambient Insight defines Game-based Learning as one of the eight distinct types of learning technology products
We do not approach Game-based Learning as a subset of the global videogame industry, but rather as a subset of the global learning technology market
In the context of the global learning technology market, isolating Game-based Learning products is relatively straightforward
There is only one hardware-based learning technology product type and that is Personal Learning Devices (PLDs)
Ambient Insight’s 2014 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Global Market Forecasts for Game-based Learning and Simulation-based Learning
Ambient Insight separates Game-based Learning revenues and Simulation-based Learning revenues
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based Learning and Simulation-based Learning
Our definitions are based on the definitions developed by Alessi and Trollip
Global Revenues by Learning Product
Type***
2013 Revenues in US$ Millions
2018 Revenues in US$ Millions
Five-Year CAGR
2013-2018
Simulation-based Learning $3,022.42 $7,188.33 18.9%
Game-based Learning $1,739.55 $2,404.12 6.7%
Total $4,761.97 $9,592.44 15.0%
*** Does not include hardware
Ambient Insight 2014
Pedagogical Definition of Game-based Learning
Game-based Learning is a knowledge transfer method that utilizes "gameplay," which includes some form of competition (against oneself or others) and a reward/penalty system that essentially functions as an assessment method.
Game-based Learning products (edugames) have explicit pedagogical goals
A user "wins" an edugame when they achieve the learning objectives of the gameplay
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based Learning and Simulation-based Learning.
Ambient Insight’s 2014 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
Ambient Insight 2014
There are distinct pedagogical differences between Game-based Learning and Simulation-based Learning.
There are four types of Simulation-based Learning:
Physical Object and Environmental Process Procedural Situational
Allessi and Trollip compressed these four into two instructional strategies: learning about something (physical and process), and
learning to do something (procedural and situational).
Pedagogical Definition of Simulation-based Learning
Ambient Insight’s 2014 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy
Ambient Insight 2014
Gamification Versus Game-based Learning
SpongeLab on Game-based Learning versus Gamification: “Gamification is the application of videogame rules,
mechanics and conventions to a non-gaming situation. Put simply, if a student is playing a videogame and learning from it, we aren’t witnessing gamification - the student is experiencing game-based learning. An educational game hasn’t been ‘gamified’ - because it’s a game already!”
Game elements are often “bolted on” to legacy training products
Badgeville sells gamification add-ons for corporate training
Course Hero has online courses that use Bunchball’s game mechanics
Oxford University Press and Scholastic use SecretBuilder’s game platform to “gamify books”
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Revenue Forecasts
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Market
The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the Worldwide Simulation-based Learning market is 18.9%. Revenues reached $3.0 billion
in 2013. Revenues will more than double to $7.1 billion by 2017.
*** Includes custom content services and authoring tools revenue
Simulation-based Learning by Region***
2013 Revenues in US$ Millions
2018 Revenues in US$ Millions
Five-Year CAGR
2013-2018
North America $1,596.63 $2,951.48 13.1%
Latin America $143.70 $740.82 38.8%
Western Europe $558.82 $1,083.19 14.2%
Eastern Europe $68.66 $156.43 17.9%
Asia $542.85 $1,918.46 28.7%
The Middle East $15.97 $51.65 26.5%
Africa $95.80 $286.29 24.5%
Total $3,022.42 $7,188.33 18.9%
Ambient Insight 2014
UK-based Immerse Learning's English for Oil and Gas simulation-based product developed for a Kazakhstan oil company. "While students are
learning English, they walk around a virtual version of the equipment that they are being trained to work on."
2013-2018 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
Sophisticated Mobile Healthcare Education Simulations Now on the Market
http://www.3d4medical.com/
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Simulation-based Learning Five-year Growth Rates by Region
North A
meric
a
Latin A
meric
a
Weste
rn E
urope
Eastern
Euro
peAsia
Mid
dle E
ast
Africa
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2013-2018 Growth Rates by Region
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning
Revenue Forecasts
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
The Worldwide Game-based Learning market reached $1.7 billion in 2013. The global growth rate is 6.7% and
revenues will reach $2.4 billion by 2018.
*** Includes custom content development services revenue
Game-based Learning by Region***
2013 Revenues in US$ Millions
2018 Revenues in US$ Millions
Five-Year CAGR
2013-2018
North America $421.96 $607.24 7.6%
Latin America $42.20 $77.73 13.0%
Western Europe $109.71 $118.41 1.5%
Eastern Europe $20.25 $33.40 10.5%
Asia $1,115.89 $1,523.01 6.4%
The Middle East $8.44 $9.72 2.9%
Africa $21.10 $34.61 10.4%
Total $1,739.55 $2,404.12 6.7%
Ambient Insight 2014
2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Five-year Growth Rates by Region
North A
meric
a
Latin A
meric
a
Weste
rn E
urope
Eastern
Euro
peAsia
Mid
dle E
ast
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
2013-2018 Growth Rates by Region
Ambient Insight 2014
Buying Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market by Buyer Segment
Consumers dominate the global Game-based Learning market
Global Game-based Learning by Buying
Segment
2013 Revenues in $US Millions
2018 Revenues in $US Millions
Five Year CAGR
2012-2017
Consumer $1,287.26 $1,586.72 4.3%
PreK-12 $191.35 $336.58 12.0%
Higher Education $17.40 $48.08 22.5%
Government $86.98 $144.25 10.6%
Corporate $52.19 $96.16 13.0%
Healthcare $69.58 $120.21 11.6%
NGOs & Non-Profits $34.79 $72.12 15.7%
Total $1,739.55 $2,404.12 6.7%
Revenues concentrated in
edugame content
Revenues concentrated in
custom services
Ambient Insight 2014
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Country and Each Buyer Segment
The top buying countries for mobile edugames in 2013 were the US and China. By 2018, China will be the top buyer Gaming consoles finally legal in China as of January 2014
Massive adoption of tablets in the schools across the planet is a major catalyst for Mobile Learning and mobile edugames
In the US, Game-based Learning is ubiquitous in the early grades but starts to taper out in upper middle school New Gamesandlearning.org survey on use of edugames in K-8:
http://www.gamesandlearning.org/2014/06/09/teachers-on-using-games-in-class/#howtochoose
Companies are making volume purchasing and device provisioning easier for the schools: Google Play for Education for tablets and Chromebooks Apple’s Volume Purchase Program for Education
Ambient Insight 2014
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Country and Each Buyer Segment
The use of edugames in the international corporate segment has always been problematic
Healthcare edugames usually designed for patient education NGOs fund the development of edugames for disease
prevention, social engineering, and the environment HopeLab developed Re-Mission 2 with funding from Vivendi,
Livestrong Foundation, the Entertainment Software Association, Cigna, Genentech, and the Annenberg Foundation.
HopeLab
Ambient Insight 2014
Buying Behavior is Different in Each Buyer Segment
Government agencies are increasingly paying developers to create edugames (web-based and mobile) for mHealth, literacy, and language learning The US State Department paid The SuperGroup to develop
the web-based Trace Effects edugame: “Gamers interact and solve puzzles in a virtual world filled with diverse English-speaking characters.”
Ambient Insight 2014
The Road to Revenues is Different in Each Country - China
Hardware and Data Most of China is on 2G, although 4G is growing Data fees are high Smartphone sales rising: 97.5 million shipped in Q2 2014
Monetization: Premium apps not popular in China Google Play not authorized to receive payments
Publishing: Must have a Chinese partner to publish PC or Android app
(illegal to do otherwise) iDreamsky and Yodol provide localization, manage
updates, and publish via their alliances with Tenent, Baidu, and Beintoo
Visibility: more than 200 Android app stores in China Promotion: cannot use Twitter or Facebook
Ambient Insight 2014
Longitudinal Analysis: The Global Game-based Learning Market Enters Mature Phase
2006-2011
2007-2012
2008-2013
2009-2014
2010-2015
2011-2016
2012-2017
2013-2018
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Compound Annual Growth Rates by Eight Forecast Periods
Data based on Ambient Insight’s Game-based Learning reports from 2006 to 2014.
Ambient Insight 2014
Sweden-based Toca Boca launched their first app in March 2011 and by November 2013 had reached over 50 million downloads Ranked as the number one top
selling educational app in both the Apple app store and in Google’s app store in June 2014
Toca Boca
Mobile Edugames now outsell PC/Console edugames
15 of the 24 Game-based Learning companies funded in 2013 were mobile edugame developers and all of them were developing edugames for young children
Early childhood learning edugames consistently rank in the top ten bestselling mobile apps in almost every country
Learning apps designed for young children usually include gameplay
All Roads Lead to Mobile
Ambient Insight 2014
Worldwide Game-based Learning Investment Patterns
Leading Indicators
Ambient Insight 2014
Investment Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
Knowledge Adventure (an industry pioneer) obtained $26.8 million in funding in 2013 and another $13 million in May 2014
Game-based Learning companies garnered $290.8 million in private investment funding between 2010 and 2013
Ambient Insight 2014
Game-based Learning Catalysts
Game-based Learning companies garnered $85.1 million in private investment funding in 2013
There were 392 Game-based Learning startups listed on the AngelList site as of July 20, 2014:
https://angel.co/educational-games
The Big Players are interested again:
Rosetta Stone launched their game-based Kids Lingo Letter Sounds in September 2013 and the Arcade Academy edugame in October 2013 - “ The first gamified language-learning app for adults”
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt acquired Curiosityville in May 2014. Curiosityville develops games “that teach math and literacy skills to children ages three to eight”
Ambient Insight 2014
Success: one teacher at a time.
Dreambox Learning obtained $14.5 million in funding in 2013 – They have raised $25.5 million since 2010
Investment Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
Acquired Kids Games Club in 2013 and Chinese edugame company Coco Play in May 2014. Building a catalog by acquisition
TabTale obtained $13.5 million in funding in 2013 – They have over 200 mobile apps for young children.
Investment Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
Edugame Incubators/Accelerators
In 2013, Zynga.org and NewSchools Venture Fund, launched co.lab—"an accelerator that works with startups that are leveraging the power of digital games to build transformative educational technologies.“ http://playcolab.com/
Pearson Catalyst for Education: http://catalyst.pearson.com/
Kaplan EdTech Accelerator: http://kaplanedtechaccelerator.com/#et-overview
Ambient Insight 2014
Kidaptive obtained $10.1 million in funding in 2013: One of the first companies selected by the Co.lab incubator Includes parental controls (Parent's Pad) and “tips on how to
improve learning hurdles, like difficulty in color or shape recognition.”
Investment Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
Fingerprint obtained $10.5 million in funding in June 2014 (from DreamWorks) – They have garnered $20.1 million since 2011 Platform open to third-party developers and brands: “businesses can
use it to break into the rapidly growing mobile playfield.” Has parental controls (“Mom-Comm technology”) Samsung Kids’ Mobile Network Powered by Fingerprint – “games with
an educational twist for kids ages 3 to 7.” http://www.fingerprintplay.com/callforcontent
Investment Patterns: 2013-2018 Worldwide Game-based Learning Market
Ambient Insight 2014
What Gets Funded and What Sells?
Free private investment tracking sites identifies company, funding amount, and the investor:
Crunchbase:
http://www.crunchbase.com/
Education VentureBeat:
http://venturebeat.com/category/education/
Free ranking sites track the top selling educational apps and edugames by all platforms and by each country:
App Annie:
http://www.appannie.com/top/iphone/united-states/education/
Distimo:
http://www.distimo.com/leaderboards
Ambient Insight 2014
There are differences in buying behavior in each store across the planet.
What Sells? July 10, 2014 Bestselling Educational App Snapshot from App Annie for Canada, the US, and the UK
Ambient Insight 2014
Q & AThis deck is posted in Ambient Insight’s Free Resource Library at:
http://www.ambientinsight.com/News/PublishedContent.aspx