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UBS Utilities and Natural Gas Conference Boston, MA
March 5, 2014
“Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Investor
Relations
Contacts
Bette Jo Rozsa Managing Director
614-716-2840 [email protected]
Julie Sherwood Director
614-716-2663 [email protected]
2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Although AEP and each of its
Registrant Subsidiaries believe that their expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such statements may be influenced by factors that could cause actual
outcomes and results to be materially different from those projected. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-
looking statements are: the economic climate, growth or contraction within and changes in market demand and demographic patterns in our service territory, inflationary
or deflationary interest rate trends, volatility in the financial markets, particularly developments affecting the availability of capital on reasonable terms and developments
impairing our ability to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt at attractive rates, the availability and cost of funds to finance working capital and capital
needs, particularly during periods when th time lag between incurring costs and recovery is long and the costs are material, electric load, customer growth and the impact
of retail competition, particularly in Ohio, weather conditions, including storms and drought conditions, and our ability to recover significant storm restoration costs through
applicable rate mechanisms, available sources and costs of, and transportation for, fuels and the creditworthiness and performance of fuel suppliers and transporters,
availability of necessary generating capacity and the performance of our generating plants, our ability to recover increases in fuel and other energy costs through
regulated or competitive electric rates, our ability to build or acquire generating capacity, and transmission lines and facilities (including our ability to obtain any necessary
regulatory approvals and permits) when needed at acceptable prices and terms and to recover those costs (including the costs of projects that are cancelled) through
applicable rate cases or competitive rates, new legislation, litigation and government regulation including oversight of nuclear generation, energy commodity trading and
new or heightened requirements for reduced emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, carbon, soot or particulate matter and other substances or additional regulation of fly
ash and similar combustion products that could impact the continued operation, cost recovery and/or profitability of our generation plants and related assets, evolving
public perception of the risks associated with fuels used before, during and after the generation of electricity, including nuclear fuel, a reduction in the federal statutory tax
rate could result in an accelerated return of deferred federal income taxes to customers, timing and resolution of pending and future rate cases, negotiations and other
regulatory decisions including rate or other recovery of new investments in generation, distribution and transmission service and environmental compliance, resolution of
litigation, our ability to constrain operation and maintenance costs, our ability to develop and execute a strategy based on a view regarding prices of electricity and other
energy-related commodities, prices and demand for power that we generate and sell at wholesale, changes in technology, particularly with respect to new, developing or
alternative sources of generation, our ability to recover through rates or market prices any remaining unrecovered investment in generation units that may be retired
before the end of their previously projected useful lives, volatility and changes in markets for capacity and electricity, coal, and other energy-related commodities,
particularly changes in the price of natural gas, changes in utility regulation and the allocation of costs within regional transmission organizations, including PJM and SPP,
the transition to market generation in Ohio, including the implementation of ESPs, our ability to successfully and profitably manage our Ohio generation assets in a start-
up, nonregulated, merchant business, changes in the creditworthiness of the counterparties with whom we have contractual arrangements, including participants in the
energy trading market, actions of rating agencies, including changes in the ratings of our debt, the impact of volatility in the capital markets on the value of the
investments held by our pension, other postretirement benefit plans, captive insurance entity and nuclear decommissioning trust and the impact on future funding
requirements, accounting pronouncements periodically issued by accounting standard-setting bodies and other risks and unforeseen events, including wars, the effects of
terrorism (including increased security costs), embargoes, cyber security threats and other catastrophic events.
Table of Contents
3
Capital Spending/Rate Base Growth p 4 Dividends, Financing Plan and Earnings Guidance p 8 Rate Cases and Earned ROEs p 13 AEP Transmission Holding Co p 15 Competitive Business p 19
2014-2016 Capital Spending Forecast
4
Transmission: $2,118 19%
Corporate: $277 2%
Distribution: $3,312 29%
Regulated Fossil/ Hydro Generation:
$699 6%
Nuclear Generation: $685
6%
Regulated Environmental
Generation: $1,402 12%
Competitive Operations: $545
5%
Transcos: $1,960 17%
Transmission Joint Ventures: $462
4% Capital & Equity Contributions
$ in millions, excluding AFUDC
$3.8B/year
Regulated Generation Investment - $2.8B
Regulated Distribution
Investment - $3.3B
Regulated Transmission
Investment - $4.5B
95% of capital allocated to regulated businesses
Regulated Rate Base Growth
5
2012 Net Regulated Plant = $33.2B
Cumulative change from 2012 base
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED
UTILITIES
WIRES COMPANIES
TRANSCOS/TRANSOURCE
7.1% CAGR in Net Regulated Plant
Forecasted Growth in Operating Earnings Per Share
6
$3.8B capital investment per year
2014-2016; priority allocation to
transmission opportunities
Sustainable cost savings and O&M discipline support earnings growth
Rate Base Growth + Operating Discipline = 4-6% Forecasted Earnings Growth
Forecasted Sustainable Pre-tax Earnings Improvements by 2016
7
Generation (including nuclear) (largely related to competitive generation)
$70-100M
Transmission
$10-25M
Distribution
$20-40M
Corporate
$10-25M
Supply Chain/Procurement
$10-15M
Utilize transition period to execute continuous improvement plan
Dividend
8
Targeted payout ratio of 60-70% of
consolidated earnings
Declared 415 consecutive quarters
Supported by earnings from regulated
operations
* Su
bje
ct t
o a
pp
rova
l by
Bo
ard
of
Dir
ecto
rs
9
2014-2016 Financing Plan & Credit Metrics
Bonus Depreciation
$459M
Securitization
$394M*
DRP $300M
3-year total =
$1,153M
Anticipated Cash Flows Cover Planned Capital Investment
While Maintaining Solid Credit Metrics:
$ in millions 2014E 2015E 2016E
Cash from Operations - (adjusted for items listed below) 4,098 4,471 4,599
Impact of Bonus Depreciation 459 - -
Federal Cash Taxes Paid
(396)
(698)
(830)
Cash from Securitization* 244 150 -
Capital & Equity Contributions (3,800) (3,800)
(3,800)
Other Investing Activities
(267)
(273)
(179)
Common Dividends @ $2.00/share - 2014 - 2016**
(979)
(983)
(988)
Excess (Required) Capital
(641)
(1,133)
(1,198)
Financing ($ in millions) 2014E 2015E 2016E
Excess (Required) Capital
(641)
(1,133)
(1,198)
Debt Maturities (Senior Notes, PCRBs) (1,090) (1,323) (715)
Securitization Amortizations (316) (371) (380)
Interim Credit Facility*** - (1,000) -
Equity Issuances (DRP/401K) 100 100 100
Debt Capital Market Needs (New)
(1,947)
(3,727)
(2,193)
Financial Metrics
Debt to Capitalization Target Mid 50s
FFO/Total Debt Target**** Mid -to- Upper teens
*Comprised of the following securitizations: $394MM OH deferred fuel (subject to regulatory approval) **Assumes current quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share; dividend evaluated by board of directors each quarter; stated target payout ratio range is 60-70% ***Interim credit facility matures May 2015; all or a portion of the facility may be repaid prior to maturity date ****Excludes securitization debt
10 2014 Operating Earnings Guidance Range of $3.20 - $3.40/sh
2014 Operating Earnings Guidance
Drivers Rate Changes $0.21 OSS 0.05 Depreciation (0.04) O&M (0.02) Weather (0.01) Other (0.01)
$0.18
$0.04 ($0.21)
($0.07)
$0.13 $0.00
Drivers Trans. Rev $0.03 Rate Changes 0.02 O&M (0.04) Normal Load (0.01)
Drivers Transcos $0.09 JVs 0.04
Driver Int Income ($0.07)
Drivers Gen Resources ($0.19) Other (0.02)
11
2014 Key Guidance Assumptions & Sensitivities
Sensitivities
Sensitivity EPS
Retail Sales 0.5% +/- 0.04
Wholesale Market Prices - Regulated $1 MWh +/- 0.01
Wholesale Market Prices - Competitive $1 MWh +/- 0.02
O&M Expense (excludes O&M with offsets)
1.0% +/- 0.04
2014 Effective Income Tax rate @ 35.5%
1.0% +/- 0.05
Note: A $7.5M change in pre-tax earnings equals $0.01/share.
Assumptions
Rate Changes: $175M
2014 Regulated Connected Load: Residential: 58,023 GWh Commercial: 49,335 GWh Industrial: 55,631 GWh Regulated OSS: 22,108 GWh
AEP Ohio Customer Switching 71% by year-end 2014
Regulated OSS Gross Margins (after sharing): $150M
Transmission Operations: $141M
O&M, net of earnings offsets and excluding River Operations: $2.8B
AD Hub ATC Price: $33.24
Henry Hub NG Price: $3.83
No. of Shares O/S: 487M
1.5%
-0.8% -1.6% -1.1% 0.7%
-0.5% -0.6% 0.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E
4.1%
-0.9%
-4.5%
-2.2%
2.0% 0.0%
-1.6%
1.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E
0.4%
-1.6%
0.0%
-0.9%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E
-0.3%
0.3%
-0.1% -0.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E
AEP Residential Normalized GWh Sales % Change vs. Prior Year
AEP Commercial Normalized GWh Sales % Change vs. Prior Year
AEP Industrial GWh Sales % Change vs. Prior Year
AEP Total Normalized GWh Sales % Change vs. Prior Year
Note: Charts reflect connected load and exclude firm wholesale load & Buckeye Power backup load
Normalized Retail Load Trends – AEP System
12
Note: Line represents Industrial excluding Ormet Note: Line represents Retail excluding Ormet
2014 Announced Rate Cases
13
West Virginia Base rate case due to be filed no later than June 30, 2014 Rates can be implemented nine
months after filing of case
Oklahoma Base rate case filed Jan. 17, 2014 $45M increase requested; 10.50% ROE PSO is willing to request a delay in
implementing new rates until after October
Virginia Biennial review due to be filed no later than March 31, 2014 Two-year test period ended December 31, 2013 Rates effective February 2015
Kentucky Base rate case due to be filed no later than December 2014 Rates can be implemented subject to refund six
months after filing of case
Pro-forma Earned ROEs – 12 Months Ended 12/31/2013
14 Regulated Operations ROE of 9.9% for 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2013
9.5%
13.5%
7.4%
10.7%
7.4%
9.3%8.6%
11.3%
AEPTransHoldco
AEPTexasSWEPCOPSOI&MKPCoAPCo
OhioPower
15
$921 Net Plant* ($ in millions)
$331 Net Plant* ($ in millions)
$274 Net Plant* ($ in millions)
* As of 12/31/2013
$2,194 Net Plant*
($ in millions)
$23 Equity Investment in PWT*
($ in millions)
$77 Net Plant* ($ in millions)
$6 Net Plant*
($ in millions)
AEP Transmission Holdco Organizational Structure
Note: Private placement financing has occurred at
Electric Transmission Texas, LLC and AEP
Transmission Company, LLC
15
$0.36
$0.43
$0.56
$0.65
$0.29
$0.16
$0.80
$0.39
$0.67
$0.51
$0.30
AEP Transmission Holdco
16
4 types of projects: Regional projects for retirements,
renewables, economic and market efficiencies
Local reliability plans Aging infrastructure Customer-driven projects
Cumulative Base Case Capital Investment
High Case Incremental Capital Investment
EPS High Case Contribution
$/share
EPS Base Case Contribution
$/share
Non-firm joint venture projects not included; high case investment is strictly related to the Transcos (no assumption for securing
competitive opportunities); no projects included above subject to loss due to FERC Order 1000 right of first refusal
17
Transmission Projects/Pipeline -PJM
Regional Projects Asset Description Transco In-Service Date
Vassell 345/138 kV New Station/Lines OH May-14
Muskingum River - Sporn 345 kV OH Jun-15
Kammer 345/138 kV Rebuild/Expansion WV Dec-15
Biers Run 345/138 kV New Station/Lines OH Jun-16
Baker 765/345 kV Expansion KY Jun-16
Sorenson 765/345 kV New Station/Lines IN Jun-16
Southern Indiana Improvements IN Jun-16
Kanawha Valley Area Reinforcement Project WV Oct-16
Allen 345/138 kV Expansion/Lines IN/OH Jun-17
Local Reliability Projects Asset Description Transco In-Service Date
Northern Fort Wayne 138 kV Improvements IN Jun-15
McClung Area Improvement Project WV Jun-17
Corey - Pokagon 138 kV Conversion/Rebuild MI Jun-17
Marietta Area 69 kV Upgrade (Phase 1 of 3) OH Jun-18
Customer Projects
Asset Description Transco In-Service Date
Amlin 138 kV Station OH Jun-14
City of Wapakoneta OH Jun-14
Jug St. - Kirk 345/138 kV Rebuild OH Dec-14
Ball State Service Upgrades IN Jun-15
Shale Energy Customer Projects (Various) OH/WV Dec-15
Aging Infrastructure
Asset Description Transco In-Service Date
Rebuild, replace over 500 miles of 138 kV, and below, transmission lines MULTI Dec-2018
Replace obsolete reactors on 8 765 kV transmission lines MULTI Dec-2018
Replace/upgrade key 345/138 kV transformers and increase spare complement MULTI Dec-2018
Replace/upgrade obsolete circuit breakers, switches and protection & control at 5 765 kV
stations MULTI Dec-2018
Add monitoring and communications to support development of the Asset Health
Center MULTI Dec-2018
Replace/upgrade obsolete circuit breakers, switches and protection & control at key 345
kV stations MULTI Dec-2018
Project pipeline excludes investment related to future potential approval of VA Transco
18
Transmission Projects/Pipeline – SPP & ETT
Regional Projects Asset Description Transco/JV In-Service Date
Lobo to North Edinburg 345 kV ETT Jun-2016
North Edinburg to Loma Alta 345 kV (50%) ETT Jun-2016
Lobo to Molina 138 kV ETT May-2015
Chisholm to Gracemont 345 kV OK Mar-2018
Valliant to NW Texarkana 345 kV MULTI Jun-2015
Bluebell to Pratville 138 kV OK Jun-2015
Total Regional Projects In-Service MULTI Multiple Projects
Local Reliability Projects Asset Description Transco/JV In-Service Date
Barney Davis to Naval Base 138 kV ETT Dec-2015
Cornville to Lindsay 69 to 138 kV Conv. OK Dec-2014
Total Local Reliability In-Service MULTI Multiple Projects
Customer Projects Asset Description Transco/JV In-Service Date
Jim Treece 345 kV Station ETT May-2014
Benteler Steel OK Jun-2014
Grady POD/Phase One-Customer Shale OK Dec-2014
Grady POD/Phase TWO-Customer Shale OK Dec-2015
Wapanucka - Looped Feed OK Dec-2014
Foraker POD OK Dec-2014
Assets In-Service Below $3,000,000 MULTI 2013-2014
Total Customer Projects In-Service MULTI Multiple Projects
Project pipeline excludes investment related to future potential approval of SW Transco
Competitive Business Organizational Structure
19
AEP Co, Inc.
AEP Energy Supply
AEP Generation Resources (AGR)
PJM Generation
AEP Energy Partners AEP Energy Retail
AEP Resources
AEP River Operations
AEP Energy Supply integrates the competitive generation, wholesale and retail businesses
Wholesale, Trading & Marketing
AEP Energy Supply Timeline
20 Fleet is well-positioned from a cost and operational perspective to participate in the competitive market
2016 Fully
Competitive
Operations
2013
Corporate Separation completed December 31, 2013
2014
February – AEP Ohio load auction: 10%
March – WV filing to address Wheeling Power capacity/energy needs
May – RPM 2017/18 Auction
May – AEP Ohio load auction: 25%
September – AEP Ohio load auction: 25%
November – AEP Ohio load auction: 40%
2015
May 31 - ESP II transition ends
June - Retire 2,523MW
Obtain permanent financing
“Rationalize” Capacity
Optimize Revenues/Reduce Costs
AEP Generation Resources: PJM Fleet Profile
21
Coal, Controlled
70.2%
Gas, CC 23.4%
Gas, CT 5.8%
Hydro 0.6%
Fuel Profile
AGR has the competitive advantage of fuel and operational diversity
Fixed Resource Requirement RPM
Transfer Retire Retain
AEP Generation Resources: Expected Generation
22 Fleet is well-positioned from a cost and operational perspective to participate in the competitive market
Generation from fleet expected to be in the range of
38-42 million MWh
Cardinal
Stuart* Gavin
Zimmer*
Mitchell Waterford Lawrenceburg
Conesville
Darby
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
$20
$30
$40
$50
Installed Capacity (MW)
$ p
er
MW
h, D
isp
atch
Co
st
2016 Dispatch Stack
Note: post-retirement view of generation stack; includes estimated fuel, emissions and consumables costs * Non-AEP operated JV plants reflect AEP estimate of fuel and other variable costs
Peak
ATC
Off Peak
Energy Sales Opportunities
23
2014 Energy Sales Opportunity
Short Term 15 - 20%
Financial Instruments
15 - 30%
Wholesale Customers (Muni, Co-op, Utility Auction)
Unswitched AEP Ohio Retail Customers
25 - 35%
Competitive Retail Customers
25 - 30%
AEP Energy (Retail) Profile
Currently serving 215,000 customers Served 9.9 TWh of load in 2013 Provide hedging opportunities for AGR Customer growth in western PJM
80% of expected Gross Margin in 2014 is secured by Ohio Electric Security Plan and energy hedges; AEP Energy will complement the sales opportunity for the competitive generation fleet
PA 4%
NJ 4%
IL 22%
OH 69%
MD 1%
YTD December 2013 Delivered Load
C&I, 83%
Residential, 17%
AEP Energy Supply: Earnings & Cost Management
24
Estimated ($ in millions) 2014 2015 Range 2016 Range
Energy/Capacity Gross Margin $1,100 $825 - $925 $600 -$725
Costs 425 390 355
EBITDA $675 $435 - $535 $245 - $370
Capital Expenditures 180 145 180
Net Cash Flow* $495 $290 - $390 $65 -$190
* Excludes income taxes, interest and changes in working capital
$430 $385 $350
$60 $40 $5
2011 - 2013Average
2014 2016
Cost Trend ($ in millions)
Ongoing Disposition Units
$490 $425
$355