ucl - space syntax

How does design add value?Techniques for capturing the

economic performance & social value of places

17th Annual Quality Streetscapes Conference

26th April 2012

Tim Stonor

Managing Director, Space Syntax LimitedVisiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL

[email protected]@Tim_Stonor

Tim StonorHow does design add value? Techniques for capturing the economic performance & social value of places

17th Annual Quality Streetscapes ConferenceSpace Syntax © 2012

Trafalgar Square The new Central Staircase



Nottingham, England Old Market Square



Millennium Bridge, London



Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Spatial accessibility

Low High



0

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589


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y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702

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Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility.

More accessible places get more movement.

An evidence-based approach to urban planning



Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins

80% retail located on 20% most spatially accessible streets



Unplanned settlements Spatial layout distributes land use

Land use distribution Spatial accessibility


Low High



Area 5

Area 6

Area 3

Area 2

Perth, AustraliaProperty crime analysis

Spatial layout influences crime & safety


Low High



What is the city for?



Movement is the lifeblood of the city.



Congestion The goal of advanced civilisations?



What is the city for? The city is for transaction

Social

Economic

Cultural



Designing for movement Elephant and Castle



1916 Coherent urban layout“The Piccadilly of the south”

2005 Fragmented urban layout- isolated, divided communities- disposable income exodus.

Designing for movement Elephant and Castle



The degree to which the design of the development creates an accessible, intelligible spatial layout.

Elephant & Castle Pedestrian Forecast Model

Transport attraction

Land use attraction

Spatial layout attraction

Pedestrian forecast

The degree to which public and private transport systems integrate with the development.

The strength of attraction of movement-sensitive land uses, especially retail.




Low High

Pedestrian Forecast Model Spatial layout attraction

Elephant and Castle

Kennington R

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Southbank University

Borough Station

Lambeth North Station

Weekend R square 40%

Weekday R square 35%

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Spatial layout attraction is calculated by analysing the network of pedestrian routes and measuring the degree to which individual route segments are likely to be used by people moving through the area.

The degree to which the spatial layout attraction influences actual pedestrian movement is indicated by the R square value where the higher R square means a higher degree of fit (0% is no fit, 100% is perfect fit).



Retail attraction

Shopping Centre

over 800m700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m400 – 500 m300 – 400 m200 – 300 m100 – 200 m

0- 100 m

Origins

Metric distance

Elephant and Castle

Kennington R

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Retail attraction is calculated by measuring the distance of any route segment from the two principal areas of retail focus –Elephant and Castle Shopping Centre and the East Street Market.

East Street Market



Transport attraction

New Kent Road

Elephant and Castle

Kennington R

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Borough Station


Kennington Station



1504

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Transport attraction is calculated according to the distance of any pedestrian segment from either a bus stop, tube or rail station.

over 800m700 – 800 m 600 – 700 m 500 – 600 m400 – 500 m300 – 400 m200 – 300 m100 – 200 m

0- 100 m

Bus stop

Underground station

Metric distance



Weekday R square = 60% Weekend R square=73%

Pedestrian forecast

Pedestrian Forecast Model

Spatial layout attractionWeekday R square = 49% Weekend R square = 54%

Retail attractionWeekday R square = 38% Weekend R square = 51%

Transport attractionWeekday R square = 26% Weekend R square = 28%

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Forecastmovement

Act

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Forecastmovement



Design proposal Forecast

>600300 – 600150 – 300 100 – 15060 – 100 0 – 60

50m 100m0

People Per Hour

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Proposed retail land use

Pedestrian movementPeople per hour

400+

0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400

Pedestrian movement forecast 9am

Input factors 1. Spatial accessibility2. Land use type & density3. Sun path4. Time





400+

0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400

Pedestrian movement forecast 12pm






400+

0-2525-5050-100100-200200-400





Urban value



Design factors influencing property security UrbanBuzz



Value of property security UrbanBuzz



Value of property security

0

UrbanBuzz



Rateable value

Average rateable value

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Cor

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Socio economic

Spatial layout

Rateable value Socio-spatial associations

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10%

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Rateable value Forecast model

Rateable value =

IMD score +

Global accessibility +

Local accessibility

Correlation 88%

Rateable Value = 731.267 + -3901.326*Income score + 6.4129e-8*Choice RN + 9.718*Choice R400



Case studies

Earls Court Elephant & Castle



Earls Court Scenarios

Dislocated layout

Inte

grat

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R40

0

Proposed layoutAccessibility score 35Accessibility score 75



Elephant & Castle master plan Scenarios

Proposed layout Dislocated layout

Inte

grat

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R40

0

Accessibility score: 93 Accessibility score: 57



Income Score

Local accessibility

Global accessibility

average rental value (m2)

Earls Court Proposed Medium High Medium £897.52Earls Court Dislocated Medium Low Medium £508.03Elephant & Castle Proposed Low High High £921.06Elephant & Castle Dislocated Low Low High £571.61

Average rateable value forecast

Dislocated Alternative

Proposed layout

Proposed layout

Earls Court Elephant and Castle

Dislocated Alternative



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1500

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Average rateable value forecast

Proposed layout plan rateable value

Dislocated layout rateable value



Financial model



Financial model Revenue assumptions

Office rental value Residential rental value Retail rental value

average rental value

(m2)

Earls Court Proposed £897.52

Earls Court Dislocated £508.03

Elephant & Castle Proposed £921.06

Elephant & Castle Dislocated £571.61

Savills 2010 Jones Lang LaSalle 2010 Space Syntax 2012



Build Function Description

Adjusted for London @ 1.14£/ Sq Meter

Mean£/sq.M

Median£/sq.M

Range£/sq.M

Inter‐QuartileRange£/sq.M

Offices‐general 1,374£ 1205 1148 520‐3827 943‐1366Offices‐Air conditioned General 1,512£ 1326 1218 520‐3827 1072‐1445

1‐2 stories 1,360£ 1193 1164 520‐2227 976‐13183‐5 stories 1,536£ 1347 1234 825‐3827 1143‐14686+ stories 1,915£ 1680 1391 1086‐2820 1334‐1917

Offices‐Non Air conditioned General 1,256£ 1102 1028 569‐2149 844‐12481‐2 stories 1,151£ 1010 974 569‐1711 802‐11563‐5 stories 1,355£ 1189 1116 586‐2149 947‐12966+ stories 1,764£ 1547 1622 1199‐1746

Offices‐With shops, banks, flats, etc 1,269£ 1113 972 726‐2142 866‐13631‐2 stories 1,024£ 898 849 726‐1196 796‐9733‐5 stories 1,229£ 1078 968 831‐1547 906‐11936+ stories 1,572£ 1379 1444 920‐2142 1110‐1577

Shops ‐ General 902£ 791 670 390‐1953 524‐8911‐2 stories 914£ 802 670 390‐1953 514‐9953‐5 stories 782£ 686 667 566‐845

Mixed Commercial Developments 1,164£ 1021 1032 495‐1493 613‐1437

Flats ‐ General 1,094£ 960 919 381‐2930 796‐10701‐2 stories 1,056£ 926 889 549‐1722 795‐10333‐5 stories 1,076£ 944 919 381‐1946 790‐10666+ stories 1,509£ 1324 1208 725‐2930 986‐1487

Financial model Cost assumptionsCost assumptions come from RICS (capital costs)



Financial model Cash flow summary

Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2051 Jan-2052

Summary 0 1 2 39 40Income:Residential 13,622,949 14,031,637 209,438,086 215,721,228 Retail 3,178,118 3,273,461 48,860,116 50,325,920 Commercial 637,492 656,617 9,800,749 10,094,771 Base Rent 17,438,558£ 17,961,715£ 268,098,951£ 276,141,920£

Less Allowance for Vacancy 10% 1,743,856£ 1,796,171£ 26,809,895£ 27,614,192£ Total Rental Income 15,694,702£ 16,165,543£ 241,289,056£ 248,527,728£

Less Operating ExpensesTotal operating Expense 1,395,410£ 1,395,410£ 7,186,362£ 7,186,362£

Net Operating -£ 14,299,292£ 14,770,133£ 234,102,694£ 241,341,366£

Less Debt Service 38,317,560 38,317,560 38,317,560 38,317,560 Less Capital Expenditures 145,085,917

Net Income before Taxes 145,085,917-£ 24,018,268-£ 23,547,427-£ 195,785,134£ 203,023,806£ Corporate Tax Rate 25% -£ -£ -£ 48,946,284£ 50,755,951£

Net After Taxes 145,085,917-£ 24,018,268-£ 23,547,427-£ 146,838,851£ 152,267,854£



Urban value Uplift Over 40 Years

A B C

DislocatedLayout

Proposed layout with retail uplift

Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift

Difference between A and C

IRR 11% 12.5% 14% + 27%

NPV £47 Million £ 85 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million

A B C

DislocatedLayout

Proposed layout with retail uplift

Proposed layout with retail, residential and office uplift

Difference between A and C

IRR 15 % 16 % 18 % + 20 %

NPV £665 Million £741 Million £1.0 Billion + £335 Million

Earls Court

Elephant & Castle



Dissemination



Overview Methods Technologies Reference

A Global choice pattern of Jeddah

OverviewIntroductionContentsRepresentations of spaceAnalysis of spatial relationsInterpretive modelsTheories

B Local choice pattern of Jeddah

Online Training PlatformAnalysis of spatial relations <<4/4>

Scale - RadiusIn order to analyse the different scales of spatial properties (A, B)(eg. those found at community scale), the concept of radius is introduced to serve as a tool for selecting sub-systems. For example, we select all spaces up to 100m from a certain space. The radius also can be defined as topological or geometric distance.

As a result, we have a package of measures assessing spatial configuration. At least, each of the six measures (integration and choice with three definitions of distance) can be applied with the three definitions of radius, giving a total of 18 measures, which can be applied at any radius, so yielding a potentially very large set of possible syntactic measures.

Standard measuresHowever, the standard measures, widely used in space syntax, are angular integration and choice at various metric radii, because these standard measures lead to more e powerful analyses, which have been supported and verified by a large number of studies and practices.

In particular, academic research (Hillier & Iida, 2005) has demonstrated that least angular analysis, rather than fewest turns and/or metric shortest routes analysis, best corresponds to movement patterns observed in real cities. This can be most likely explained by the fact that people use an angular geometric model of their environment to calculate distances. .

Draft



Social valueEconomic valueEnvironmental value



Urban valueSocial valueEconomic valueEnvironmental value

6.5 billion

9 billion

2010 2050

World Population

3 billion

7 billion

2010 2050

Urban Population

1 billion

3 billion

2010 2050

1.5 billion

2010 2050

Middle Class

4 billion

Informal Urban Population

Source: UN-Habitat, Goldmann Sachs



Suppressed urban valueEnhanced urban value

Main street, mixing global & local movement

Fast highway separating global & local movement

An institutional challenge Which will it be?



Tim Stonor

Managing Director, Space Syntax LimitedVisiting Professor, The Bartlett, UCL

[email protected]@Tim_Stonor

ucl - space syntax

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