The Canary in the Mine Shaft

Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate

Change Initiative

1

In September 2006, two dozen

mayors from 17 states came

together in Alaska to make

improvements in local actions to

address global climate change.

ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability

Headline Impacts

2

Rising temperatures

Thawing permafrost in communities

Increased Forest FiresChapman and Walsh, 2004

Zarling and Goering 2004

Local Impacts, Local Costs in Alaska

3

Public health costs

Economic sectors impacted

Infrastructure damage

Wildfire risk

Established Climate Change Task

Force

NOAA’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments

(RISA)

•NOAA supports university-

based teams across the

U.S. to analyze how climate

impacts key sectors within a

region and how climate

information could help with

resource management and

planning within that region.

•RISAs create strong university partnerships with federal, state, and local stakeholders within a region.

•Example topics covered

include: Agriculture,

Wildland Fire, Water

Resources, Drought

Planning, Fisheries, Public

Health.

http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/

What’s happening out there?

• Warmer temperatures – within 20 years

– Twice as many 85ºF days in summer (about a

week total)

– Above freezing winter (Dec. – Feb.) days

increase from 3-5 days

• Warmer temperatures – within a century

– 15ºF warmer in December and January

– 8-10ºF warmer in July and August

– Almost two weeks of 85ºF days in summer

– Twice as many winter days above freezing (~6

days)

Impacts on Fairbanks North Star Borough

4

What’s happening out there?

• Increased precipitation year-round

– Especially late summer

• Overall-drying since temperatures will be

increasing

– Increased evaporation and transpiration in

plants

• Flooding slightly more likely

– Due to extreme precipitation events

More Impacts

5

What’s happening out there?

• Natural Resources and Energy– Forestry, Hydrology, Air Quality, Permafrost

• Community Health and Human Services – Emergency Response, Public Health, & Air Quality,

Insects,

• Built Environment– Energy usage, Transportation, Construction,

Infrastructure, Sustainability & Cost Savings

• Growth and Economic Development

• Outreach and Education – Working with School District Curriculums

Impacted Sectors

Fairbanks North Star Borough

11

What’s happening out there?

• Natural Resources and Energy– Forestry, Hydrology, Air Quality, Permafrost

• Community Health and Human Services – Emergency Response, Public Health, & Air Quality,

Insects,

• Built Environment– Energy usage, Transportation, Construction,

Infrastructure, Sustainability & Cost Savings

• Growth and Economic Development – Economic impact

– Green jobs

– CO2 mitigation cost savings

• Outreach and Education – Working with School District Curriculums

Impacted Sectors

Fairbanks North Star Borough

11

The Economic Development

Sector Process• What is the economic impact of climate

change?

• What are the economic development

opportunities and threats presented by

climate change?

• What are we evaluating?

– Mitigation?

– Adaptation?

– CO2 emission mitigation?

Evaluating the Impacts &

Opportunities• Meet with local business folks and tell

them…

WHAT?

The Science

• Other teams were highly productive

– People could figure out the

• Impacts on land use

• Agriculture

• Transportation

• The economic development team faltered

– Can calculate economic impact

– What about economic development?

Economic Development

• Other communities talking about opportunities and threats presented by forestalling the climate change itself

– CO2 mitigation

– Green jobs

– Economic impact

• We were talking about economic development opportunities and threats from climate change itself

The Problem Child

• Economic development didn’t fit the mold!

• Data seemed irrelevant to local

businesses

– They could adapt to the changes presented

• Economic impact could be calculated – but

that is not economic development!

• Evaluated industry sectors

• Identified opportunities and threats

What Did We Find?

• Agricultural seasons changing

• Impacts of CO2 legislation

• Northwest Passage opening up!

• Expanded tourism opportunities

So What?• Extended/changed agricultural seasons

provide opportunities

• CO2 legislation provide big opportunities

and threats

• Northwest Passage provides BIG

opportunities and threats!

Conclusion

• By going through this process we identified

opportunities that needed long term focus to

turn into opportunity

– Northwest Passage

– Agriculture

• Role of university research group was crucial

• Role of cooperative extension service also

important in helping communities apply the

more esoteric climate change research.

The University’s Challenge

• Applying pure climate change research at the

community level

• Not everyone has access to climate change

researchers

• Collaborating with community, government and

university entities

• Geographically large. Climatically, economically

and socially diverse. Small population

• Varying levels of community and governmental

sophistication and resources

• Learning how to engage the communities

The Alaskan Plan

• Cooperative Extension Service

– Designing community engagement process

– Translating university climate change

research for community members

– Assisting community members in developing

climate change adaptation plans

– Assisting community members in identifying

and developing plans to pursue economic

development opportunities or mitigating

threats

But What About the Rest of the

Nation?• Model generalizable to other universities?

• National coordination beyond the obvious

agriculture and infrastructure impacts?

• National discussions beyond the business

opportunities of going green or mitigating C02?

• Coordinated regional approach?

• Or –` is it “so what?”

The Challenge

Our challenge is to bring together current

and continuing research with community

engagement to assist with risk reduction

and timely planning for community needs

and economic development.

Bob Wheeler

UAF Cooperative Extension Service

Association of Natural Resource

Extension Professionals National

Conference

• Focus Cooperative Extension and • Climate change

• Energy

• Multi-state (Regional) activities and focus

• June 2010

P.S. Man and polar bear are both safe!

Resources• Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and

Policy (ACCAP ) http://www.uaf.edu/accap/

• Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)

http://www.iclei.org/

• Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning

(SNAP): http://www.snap.uaf.edu/

• State Task Forces

http://www.akclimatechange.us

• UAF Cooperative Extension Services

(CES) http://www.alaska.edu/uaf/ces/

Presenter Contact Information

Dr. Kathryn Dodge

FNSB ARDOR Director

kdodge@fnsb.us 459-1309

Assemblymember Luke Hopkins

North Campus Manager, UAF

lukethopkins@yahoo.com 347-0066

Dr. Bob Wheeler

Professor of Forestry, UAF

ffraw@uaf.edu 474-6356