UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium

An interdisciplinary research programme on

Long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems

Living With Environmental Change

UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium

The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and information and communication technologies (ICT) systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which to test strategies for long term investment in national infrastructure and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.

Our ambition is that through theoretical research and demonstration of a new generation of practical decision support tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of national infrastructure in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

Modelling and simulation techniques are important ways of enabling complex systems to be understood and manipulated in a virtual environment. It is particularly important that interactions between different components of the national infrastructure are modelled in an integrated fashion to ensure that system sensitivities are identified and understood… Such system models are powerful tools for design and planning of infrastructure to ensure that it is optimised to key policy constraints such as minimal energy loss, cost, carbon emissions, efficiency of supply and flexibility to demographic and climate change. Simulation and modelling are areas where the UK has academic strengthCouncil for Science and Technology (2009) A National Infrastructure for the 21st Century.

The challenge

National infrastructure systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology report on national infrastructure in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of national infrastructure components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming national infrastructure is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding national infrastructure performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist… the ITRC will provide it. The ITRC will deliver the theoretical research, models and practical decision support tools to enable strategic analysis and planning of a national infrastructure system fit for the 21st Century.

Infrastructure forms the economic backbone of the UK. It is the fabric that defines us as a modern industrialised nation. The standard and resilience of infrastructure in the UK has a direct relationship to the growth and competitiveness of our economy, our quality of life and our ability to meet our climate change objectives and commitments.HM Treasury (2010) Strategy for National Infrastructure

UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium

The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is funded by a £4.5million grant from EPSRC. University support for the research programme is worth another £1million and the programme also benefits from £1.6million of support from industry and government departments and agencies.

The ITRC is a partnership of seven of the UK’s leading universities:

• Newcastle University• University of Southampton• University of Oxford• Cardiff University

• University of Cambridge• University of Leeds• University of Sussex

Prof Jim Hall (Newcastle University) is Director of the ITRC

Prof Nick Jenkins (Cardiff University) is an expert in energy supply and transmission

Dr Nick Eyre (University of Oxford) is an expert in energy demand

Prof John Preston (University of Southampton) is an expert in transport systems

Prof Chris Kilsby (Newcastle University) is an expert in water resource systems

Prof Tom Curtis (Newcastle University) is an expert in waste water systems

Prof William Powrie (University of Southampton) is an expert in solid waste and geotechnics

Prof Cliff Jones (Newcastle University) is an expert in the reliability of computer-based systems

Dr Seth Bullock (University of Southampton) is an expert in complex systems

Dr Stuart Barr (Newcastle University) is an expert geospatial data analysis

Prof Robert Nicholls (University of Southampton) is an expert in the impacts of climate change

Prof Peter Tyler (University of Cambridge) is an expert in regional economics

Prof Mark Birkin (University of Leeds) is an expert in analysis of demographic change

Dr Jim Watson (University of Sussex) is an expert on socio-technical transitions and the governance of energy systems

These institutions have been working together as partners in the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the UK Energy Research Centre on scenario analysis, simulation modelling and quantified assessment at regional and national scales of coupled technological, socio-economic and natural systems. They have come together to form the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium.

Research questions

The research programme is structured around four major challenges:

1 How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in national

infrastructure systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.

2 What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt national infrastructure to make it more resilient?

We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of national infrastructure and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.

3 How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new

models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.

4 What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of national infrastructure in the long term?

Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's national infrastructure, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.

Research programme

The research programme is implemented in five Work Streams (WS). WS1-WS3 correspond to the first three challenges listed on the previous page. WS4 provides datasets and tools to support the whole programme, whilst WS5 is the focus for integration, addressing the fourth research challenge.

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Cycle 2 (Year 3)Quantified assessment using

WS1 and WS4 outputs

WS1: Balancing infrastructure capacity anddemand under uncertainty

(Lead: Eyre)

WS2: Understanding the future risksof infrastructure failure

(Lead: Hall)

WS3: Managing infrastructure as acomplex adaptive system

(Lead: Bullock)

Cycle 1 (Year 1)Fast track assessmentof infrastructure futures

Cycle 3 (Year 5)Quantified assessment using

outputs from WS1 - WS4

WS4

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WS5: Developing integrated strategies for transitions in NI systems(Lead: Nicholls)

Work Stream 1: Balancing infrastructure capacity and demand under uncertaintyWS1 will develop a generic modelling framework for analysis of long term change in capacity and demand, under uncertainty, which is applicable to interdependent national infrastructure systems. The main dimensions of future uncertainty relating to capacity and demand (e.g. economy, technology, demography, climate, governance, finance) will be identified and relevant evidence about them will be assembled from existing studies. Internally consistent projections of changes in demand will be generated through multi-sectoral regional economic modelling and national household-based micro-simulations of demographic change. Making use of existing models where possible, we will develop reduced complexity but geographically explicit national-scale models of energy, transport, water, waste water and solid waste systems – each consistent with the framework developed at the outset of WS1. We refer to this new generation of conceptually consistent high level Capacity/Demand Assessment Models as CDAMs. Our experience suggests that a monolithic integrated model will be unwieldy and perhaps unachievable, so instead we will test and identify key interdependencies and only integrate our system of models as far as is necessary to capture salient behaviours and test integrated transition strategies.

Work Stream 2: Understanding the future risks of infrastructure failureGiven the severe long term threats posed by climate change, WS2 will begin by focussing upon climate-related hazards, though opportunities to extend to other natural hazards and man-made hazards will be explored later in the research programme. We will develop new spatially coherent probabilistic scenarios of extreme climate related hazards and their associated uncertainties. Working with our industrial partners and building upon previous studies, we will characterise the vulnerability and interdependence of the five national infrastructure networks. Central to WS2 will be the development and testing of network models for analysis of interdependent national infrastructure failure and risk. Quantification of the direct consequences of infrastructure failure will use the economic and demographic scenarios developed in WS1. The indirect economic consequences of failure and recovery will be analysed at regional and national scales using an input-output modelling approach, extending beyond previous work by considering long term change in the economy. Results will be presented as a range of metrics of vulnerability and risk.

Work Stream 3: Managing infrastructure as a complex adaptive system We will explore a variety of approaches to simulate and interpret the long term interactions between infrastructure, society and the economy, starting with exploratory simulations of synthetic examples and working up to more realistic models. We will embellish an existing framework for the spatial coupling of demand and supply, in order to provide household-scale and agent-based simulations of co-evolution between infrastructure provision and socio-demographic change. These simulation models will be combined with the techniques of evolutionary economics to explore the dynamic relationship between infrastructure provision and structural change in the economy. A further avenue will apply approaches based on network dynamics to simulate the evolution of infrastructure networks through time under a variety of external drivers. We will synthesise the most promising approaches and test them to identify patterns of emergence and to understand how in the real world these new insights may be used to steer national infrastructure systems towards sustainable outcomes. Work Stream 4: Enabling ToolsWS1-3 will be underpinned by shared databases and tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis developed in WS4, making use of cloud computing facilities. A spatial database will be developed to house infrastructure, hazard and socio-economic (including demand and vulnerability) data. Two PhD projects will focus upon methods for decision analysis.

Work Stream 5: Co-production with stakeholders of integrated transition strategiesWS5 is the focal point for integration across the research programme, delivery of policy-relevant results and technology transfer. We propose three cycles of this analysis, providing opportunities to demonstrate the models and tools developed in WS1-WS4 and for the lessons from those demonstrations to steer subsequent innovations. Cycle 1 will be a fast track analysis taking place during the first year of the research programme. Working in concert with early activities in WS1, it will set the context for the rest of the programme by scoping the possible futures for infrastructure in the UK, the drivers for change and the sources of uncertainty. Working closely with our Project Partners, we will also examine the evolution of governance (policy, regulatory, funding) arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK and how they may need to be modified to enable infrastructure transitions. Cycle 2 (Years 2 and 3) of co-production of transition strategies will make use of the new multi-sectoral spatial systems analysis developed in WS1. It will result in a major quantified analysis report, launched jointly with our Project Partners, at the end of year 3. Cycle 3 (Years 4 and 5) will pick up on the experiences in Cycle 2 and will be able to make use of methods from WS1, WS2 and WS4 as they reach completion, together with emerging insights from WS3. It will thus be able to answer questions that were not tractable in Cycle 2, representing a landmark globally in quantified assessment of national infrastructure systems.

The programme has four major milestones:• MS 1 (end of 2011): Delivery of the Cycle 1 report and launch at the first Dissemination Conference• MS 2 (mid 2012): Formal project review and plan for Years 4 and 5• MS 3 (end 2013): Delivery of the Cycle 2 report and launch at the second Dissemination Conference• MS 4 (end of 2015): Delivery of the Cycle 3 report and launch at the third Dissemination Conference

Work plan

The ITRC starts in January 2011 and will take five years to complete its work.

Benefits

The ITRC will deliver models and tools for strategic analysis of national infrastructure systems in England, Wales and Scotland. The main beneficiaries and benefits of the research will be:

• Government departments and agencies involved in infrastructure planning, regulation and provision, who will benefit from methods for strategic analysis that provide improved understanding of national infrastructure systems performance in the long term.

• Infrastructure owners, utility companies who will benefit from tools for analysis of capacity, demand and risk, which can be used to inform investment planning and asset management.

• Engineering and multi-disciplinary consultants, who will benefit from improved models to inform their consultancy services in the UK and internationally. These models may be exploited commercially.

Ultimately, consumers of infrastructure services will benefit through more efficient national infrastructure that is designed to exploit synergies between national infrastructure, to minimise risks and to be adaptable to an uncertain future.

Collaboration

In order to ensure that this impact is realised the ITRC has been developed in close collaboration with high level stakeholders from government and industry. The project is now supported by a remarkable group of Project Partners who represent the main potential beneficiaries and are in an exceptional position to support the research, maximise dissemination opportunities and enable impact:

• Government departments, agencies and local authorities: DEFRA, DfT, DCLG, DECC, Cabinet Office, Infrastructure UK, Environment Agency, Highways Agency, Transport Scotland, CABE, Association of North East Councils, Hampshire County Council.

• Utility companies: Scottish and Southern Energy, E.ON, BP, National Grid, Network Rail, United Utilities, Yorkshire Water, Northumbrian Water, Veolia, BT.

• Engineering and multi-disciplinary consultants: AEA Technology, Arup, Atkins, Black and Veatch, Halcrow, JBA, Mott MacDonald, MWH, Royal Haskoning, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Swanbarton.

• Contractors: Bam Nuttal, Costain.• Insurers: Willis.• Research organisations and data providers: Ordnance Survey, Met Office, UK Water Industry Research• Engineering institutions: Institution of Civil Engineers, Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Institution of

Engineering and Technology.• NGOs: Town and Country Planning Association, Local Government Association

Between them, these partners have offered a total of £1.6million in in-kind support to the research programme.

Knowledge exchange

The vision of a revolution in the strategic assessment of national infrastructure relies on the models and tools developed by the ITRC being fit for purpose, transferred to users who are in a position to exploit them and sustained beyond the life of the ITRC. Whilst there is currently no tradition of strategic multi-sectoral quantified analysis of national infrastructure in the UK, the need for this type of analysis is now widely recognised. Our Project Partners are at the forefront of thinking about how such tools will be used in practice. Our exploitation strategy will be developed with them, so that we target key end users and fully anticipate their needs. This will doubtless extend to the international businesses of our utility and consultancy partners, and we will develop direct links with potential international end users. The focal point for this early engagement with end users is WS5. Alongside the launch of the results from Cycles 2 and 3 of co-production, we will hold knowledge transfer workshops so that Project Partners not previously involved in co-production will have an opportunity to learn about and test the project outputs in a hands-on setting.

Roger Street will be coordinating interactions with the Project Partners and other stakeholders in government, industry and the third sector.

Contacts

For further information contact:

Prof Jim HallNewcastle Universityjim.hall@ncl.ac.uk Dr Roger StreetUK Climate Impacts Programmeroger.street@ukcip.org.uk