ulster bank slide pack october 2016
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
October 2016 Survey Update
Issued 15th November 2016
Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland
Twitter @UB_Economics
![Page 2: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to 100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change (expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to more accurately identify the broad trends.
![Page 3: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Global output growth hits an 11-month high
![Page 4: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
US Markit composite PMI posts its best reading of the year with improvements in other economies too
![Page 5: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Developed & Emerging Markets’ PMIs improving with the latter at a 20-month high
![Page 6: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Emerging Markets’ PMI remains in growth mode with India reporting a marked improvement in October
![Page 7: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Chinese services & manufacturing PMIs both pick-up in October with manufacturing at a 2½-year high
![Page 8: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Australia’s services & manufacturing PMIs both return to growth
![Page 9: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Italy, France & Ireland signal a slowdown in their growth rates with UK, Germany & Spain posting a pick-up
![Page 10: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
EZ manufacturing & services output growth quickens. But retail & construction are both in contraction mode
![Page 11: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
GDP remained stuck in a low gear in Q2 & Q3 but PMI signals more momentum in Q4*
![Page 12: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
US overtakes Ireland to post the fastest rate of output growth in services with Brazil in a league of its own
![Page 13: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
All major economies report an improvement in manufacturing conditions
![Page 14: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Developed Markets still outperform Emerging Markets
![Page 15: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NI firms report a modest pick-up in output growth with the RoI economy slowing fast & overtaken by the UK
![Page 16: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
PMI suggests private sector growth stalls in Q3 but recovers in Q4*
![Page 17: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
2014 was the 1st year in 7 years that the 4 main indicators recorded expansion, repeated in 2015 & 2016*
![Page 18: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Output & orders fall in Q3* with pace of job creation easing. £ weakness boosts growth in exports in Q3 / Q4*
![Page 19: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
NI firms report a return to growth in output but new orders growth stagnant & jobs growth slowing
![Page 20: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
UK firms report a marked pick-up in new orders growth while RoI growth slows and NI order books remain flat
![Page 21: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
RoI firms report rising backlogs while UK & NI firms post stagnation and declines respectively
![Page 22: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
NI export orders rise at a near record rate with £ weakness cited as a factor behind growth in RoI demand
![Page 23: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
RoI jobs growth accelerates while NI and UK report lower rates of employment creation
![Page 24: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Input cost inflation accelerates to a 65-month high in October with output price inflation less marked
![Page 25: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Regional Comparisons
![Page 26: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The North West tops the regional growth table in October with Scotland at the foot of the regional league table
![Page 27: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Scotland, NI & the North East post the weakest growth rates of all the UK regions over the last 3 months
![Page 28: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The RoI reported the fastest growth rate in business activity over the last year with Scotland stagnating
![Page 29: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
NI reports the 3rd slowest rate of job creation in the UK with London reporting no change in staffing levels
![Page 30: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
NI posts the 3rd fastest rate of employment growth of all UK regions over the last 3 months
![Page 31: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Scotland & the North East (job losses) were the only 2 regions not to post growth over the last 12 months
![Page 32: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
SectoralComparisons
![Page 33: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Post-Brexit vote pessimism appears to have been and gone but will it return?
![Page 34: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
The UK’s growth rate remained relatively strong in Q3 at 0.5% q/q which was firmer than PMI suggested
![Page 35: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Services was the only sector in the RoI to report a slowdown in growth
![Page 36: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
NI retailers & manufacturing firms in growth mode in Q4* while services weak & construction in rapid decline
![Page 37: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Services sector’s output growth stagnates with construction contracting & manufacturing recovering
![Page 38: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Divergence: the rate of job losses accelerates for construction with manufacturing & services expanding
![Page 39: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
NI’s manufacturing firms report a marked pick-up in activity but new orders and employment flat
![Page 40: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
UK manufacturing output growth accelerates markedly with both UK & NI outperforming the RoI
![Page 41: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
NI manufacturing output growth just below pre-downturn long-term average
![Page 42: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
UK businesses reporting a marked pick-up in demand but NI manufacturing orders’ growth is flat
![Page 43: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
NI manufacturing firms bucking the wider trend of slower growth within the Eurozone
![Page 44: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Input cost inflation rockets to a 99-month high in October with firms raising prices at a weaker rate
![Page 45: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
NI’s manufacturing firms reporting a ‘V-shaped recovery’ in employment growth & outperforming the UK & RoI
![Page 46: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
All key indicators across NI’s services sector point to low growth / stagnation
![Page 47: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
UK services sector output rebounds in the UK but slows markedly in the RoI. NI output remains broadly flat
![Page 48: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
The rate of growth in NI’s services sector is broadly flat and well below its pre-downturn long-term average
![Page 49: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
New orders dry up for NI but UK firms report a marked pick-up. RoI firms reporting a slowdown in growth
![Page 50: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Input cost inflation accelerates to a 33-month high with output prices increasing at a much weaker rate
![Page 51: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
NI & UK firms report muted rates of service sector jobs growth with RoI’s rate still strong albeit slowing
![Page 52: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
NI retailers are still recruiting staff at a significant rate with sales and orders growth accelerating
![Page 53: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
NI retailers report a marked acceleration in input cost inflation while output price rises pick-up too
![Page 54: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
NI’s construction firms posting a contraction in all key indicators
![Page 55: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Input cost inflation accelerating at a rapid rate with firms increasing prices at a much weaker rate
![Page 56: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
NI firms report a sharp decline in output over the last 3 months in contrast to growth amongst UK & RoI firms
![Page 57: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
NI firms continue to post a slump in new orders growth in contrast to robust growth amongst RoI firms
![Page 58: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
UK firms report an improvement in conditions across housing and civil engineering activity
![Page 59: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Slowdown in construction sector briefly led to an increase in supply of sub-contractors
![Page 60: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains below its long-term average
![Page 61: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
RoI housing and commercial construction activity has been improving while engineering output stagnates
![Page 62: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
![Page 63: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic about the year ahead and well above the long-term average
![Page 64: Ulster Bank Slide Pack October 2016](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081401/587d70d51a28ab32318b7cf1/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Slide 64
Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incursubstantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Calls may be recorded.