ultralow-cost mobile a new operating model for network

10
Ultralow-Cost Mobile A New Operating Model for Network Operators Perspective Roman Friedrich George Appling Ashish Sharma Hadi Raad

Upload: others

Post on 26-Jan-2022

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Ultralow-Cost Mobile

A New Operating Model for Network Operators

Perspective Roman Friedrich

George Appling

Ashish Sharma

Hadi Raad

Booz & Company

Contact Information

Beirut

Bahjat El-Darwiche

Partner

+961-1-985-655

[email protected]

Hadi Raad

Principal

+961-1-985-655

[email protected]

Delhi

Ashish Sharma

Principal

+91-124-4998705

[email protected]

Dubai

Karim Sabbagh

Partner

+971-4-390-0260

[email protected]

Düsseldorf

Roman Friedrich

Partner

+49-211-3890-165

[email protected]

Greater China

Dr. Edward Tse

Senior Partner

+86-10-6563-8300

+852-3650-6100

+86-21-2327-9800

[email protected]

Houston

George Appling

Partner

+1-713-650-4143

[email protected]

Kenny Kurtzman

Partner

+1-713-650-4175

[email protected]

London

Michael Knott

Partner

+44-20-7393-3527

[email protected]

Madrid

José Arias

Partner

+34-91-411-5121

[email protected]

Melbourne

Simon Gillies

Partner

+61-3-9221-1903

[email protected]

Milan

Luigi Pugliese

Partner

+39-02-72-50-93-03

[email protected]

Moscow

Steffen Leistner

Partner

+7-985-368-7888

[email protected]

Mumbai

Jai Sinha

Partner

+91-22-2287-2001

[email protected]

New York

Christopher Vollmer

Partner

+1-212-551-6794

[email protected]

Paris

Pierre Péladeau

Partner

+33-1-44-34-3074

[email protected]

San Francisco

David Standridge

Partner

+1-415-281-4995

[email protected]

São Paulo

Ivan de Souza

Senior Partner

+55-11-5501-6368

[email protected]

Tokyo

Paul Duerloo

Partner

+81-3-6757-8615

[email protected]

Ashish Bhatia, Neha Grover, Kabir Iqbal, Aditya Paranjpye, Pierre Péladeau, Karim Sabbagh, Aishwarya Sridhar, and Peter Weichsel

contributed significantly to this Perspective.

1Booz & Company

EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

Faced with evolving technology, vast opportunity, and, it

must be said, falling per-user revenue in most global markets,

mobile network operators (MNOs) are considering ways to

reduce their expenses to maximize profits and efficiency. But cutting costs cannot be—as it traditionally has been—a one-

off, across-the-board exercise. An indiscriminate paring down of costs will leave the company worse off than when it started.

All MNOs must instead learn to nurture and bolster their most strategic strengths and capabilities, even when cutting

costs. An ultralow-cost mobile (ULCM) operating model can enhance both efficiency and effectiveness. For some, it may even be at the heart of their strategy.

Using this holistic approach—which involves evaluating not just where to cut costs, but where to focus resources—enables

telecom companies to better understand their markets and

how their strategy fits. Whether your company operates primarily in rich markets or poor—or across both—ULCM offers you the opportunity to change the way your company

operates, save money, and increase revenue.

This Perspective explains how mobile players can migrate

to a ULCM model, taking into account every aspect of the mobile value chain—network operations; marketing, sales,

and distribution; and outsourcing. It presents the holistic cost-cutting approach to operational efficiency and shows how to optimize infrastructure, delivery, and marketing expenses

while strengthening your ability to compete.

2 Booz & Company

In the global telecommunications

industry, cost leadership has emerged

as one core strategy toward gain-

ing competitive advantage. Mobile

telephony, in particular, is a rapidly

growing sector where average revenue

per user (ARPU) is nevertheless

dropping over time in most markets.

Thus, mobile network operators have

an opportunity to gain competitive

advantage by using the appropri-

ate method of cutting costs to grow

stronger.

Traditional cost-cutting programs

typically cut expenses across the

board, trying to spread the pain more

or less equally. This often results in

indiscriminate cost reduction, based

on industry templates and market-

place benchmarks, rather than a holis-

tic approach that takes into account

the company’s context in the market.

If you are a leading mobile telecom

executive approaching costs this

way, you are, in effect, basing your

company’s decisions on what your

competitors and other companies are

doing, not on your particular strategic

direction. It may reduce expenses in

the very short term, but it fuels inco-

herence and loss of market advantage

over the long term.

An effective cost-cutting exercise

should recognize that many expenses

are discretionary and should be

treated as potentially expendable.

Some costs will be necessary to “keep

the lights on” (investing only to the

minimum extent required) or as “table

stakes” (investment that you and your

competitors must all make to play

in the market). But these expenses

should be optimized to the maximum.

Other costs are pertinent to your

strategy; these represent distinctive

market-winning capabilities that

enable your company to stand out

from competitors. Though it is helpful

to review costs and bolster productiv-

ity, you should continuously support

and strengthen these capabilities,

regardless of the current economic

climate. In telecom companies, a stra-

tegic focus on cost will generally lead

to a new focus on maximizing yield

management and utilization, because

these factors have a significant impact in building a distinctive telecom

service.

The result of this cost-cutting exercise

should be an ultralow-cost mobile

transformation program that can

increase profitability in all markets, including the subscriber-dense cities

of the developing world, and more

developed markets with high ARPU

such as the U.S. and western Europe.

The transition to ULCM involves a

conscious and comprehensive effort to

improve cost efficiencies and yield by 15 to 20 percent in each cost category.

COST CUTTING

AS A HOLISTIC

ENDEAVOR

A strategic focus on cost will generally

lead to a new focus on maximizing

yield management and utilization.

3Booz & Company

Exhibit 1 ARPU Has Limited Correlation with EBITDA

Source: Merrill Lynch Matrix, 2009; company annual reports; Booz & Company analysis

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

EBITDA Margin (%)

ARPU (US$)

VimpelCom

MTSGlobe

Kyivstar

UMC DiGi

Maxis

Smart

Vodafone Spain

Telefónica

MTN

VodacomO2 U.K.

Orange U.K.Vodafone U.K.

T-Mobile

AT&TVerizon

TIM BrazilClaro Brazil

Vivo BrazilOptus

Telstra KDDI

NTT DoCoMoChina Mobile

Idea

Bharti Airtel

Reliance Communications

R2 = 0.012

MOBILE EBITDA (ACROSS DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING MARKETS)

Mature Markets

Developing Markets

0

15

30

45

60

75

To successfully move toward ULCM,

operators must first develop a basis for judging expenses: a metric that

indicates the strategic value of

investments. Though ARPU has

traditionally been considered a key

driver and indicator of profitability for MNOs, the link between ARPU

and earnings (in the form of EBITDA)

is tenuous at best. MNOs in emerging

markets, with ARPUs of less than

US$5, often have higher EBITDA

margins than their counterparts in

higher ARPU markets (see Exhibit 1).

The cellphone tower, or base

transceiver station (BTS), is a more

precise indicator of profitability than ARPU or even subscriber

base. By increasing efficiency

THE ULTRALOW-

COST APPROACH

4 Booz & Company

and simultaneously enhancing

effectiveness at every BTS, operators

may achieve improved EBITDA and

enhanced overall profitability.

With its focus on the BTS, ULCM

has some similarities with what many

MNOs call the “minutes factory”

approach, which is commonly applied

in India and is expanding into other

developing markets. This approach

is characterized by a combination

of low costs and extremely high

network utilization, which results in

relatively higher yield per BTS despite

marginal ARPUs. ULCM goes a step

further by aggressively working to

optimize efficiency by lowering costs throughout the entire mobile value

chain, not just at the BTS.

The ULCM approach increases

efficiency by lowering costs. The total cost of ownership (TCO) per BTS

varies widely from market to market

(see Exhibit 2), but there is room

for improvement in even the most

efficient Indian markets. TCO per BTS generally correlates significantly higher with EBITDA than with

ARPU. This suggests that EBITDA

Exhibit 2 There Is a Wide Variation in Costs per Base Transceiver Station Globally

Notes: TCO calculated on operating expenses plus 10% opportunity cost of capital (on net block); end-of-year subscriber numbers used in the metric; average exchange rate for the

period: ¤1 = US$1.3. Operating expenses include network, customer servicing, IUC, license, personnel, and SG&A expense (excludes annual depreciation). Source: Annual reports; analyst reports; news articles; company websites; Merrill Lynch European Telecom Wireless and Broadband Matrix, Q1 2010; TeleGeography;

Booz & Company analysis

15,374.7

TCO/BTS (US$ per month)

Western Europe 2

Developed Asia 1

Western Europe 1

Africa 1

MENA 2

ASEAN 5

ASEAN 4

Eastern Europe

MENA 3

ASEAN 2

ASEAN 1

Filipino 1

China

India 3

India 2

India 1 3,076

3,398

5,153

5,761

5,969

8,730

9,047

9,119

12,520

13,556

14,779

17,230

18,373

23,745

33,256

62,503

COST BENCHMARKING: TCO PER BTS, 2009

5Booz & Company

is related not to the cost of capacity

that is actually used in service, but to

the total cost of capacity, whether it is

used or not.

It also increases effectiveness by

improving the yield (revenue) per BTS,

which is also much more strongly

correlated to EBITDA than is ARPU.

Maximizing minutes of use per

customer will produce better

distribution of your installed fixed cost base. Given that the fixed cost incurred in creating and operating

a network typically accounts for 65

to 70 percent of the total cost, high

usage per customer is critical to

the overall profitability of telecom companies. There is significant room for improvement on this front—for

instance, India, which has among the

highest minutes of use per customer

globally, clocks only about 13

minutes per customer per day, or 394

minutes per month. And only seven

countries have such high levels of

utilization. This suggests significant room to increase usage per customer

in both developed and developing

markets. Meanwhile, operators in

developing economies—notably China

and India—have a simultaneous

opportunity to substantially increase

average revenue per minute (ARPM)

per BTS (see Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3 Depending on Market Maturity, MNOs Can Create Additional Value by Either Stimulating Usage or Enhancing Yield per BTS

Note: Figures for all western European nations and Korea are for 2008.

Source: Merrill Lynch Wireless Matrix, Q3 2009; Global Insight; Informa; Booz & Company analysis

Stimulate usage

0

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.24

5004504003503002502001501000

Venezuela

Ukraine

Turkey

Spain

Sweden

Russia

Poland

Peru

Portugal

ARPM (US$)

Average Minutes of Use Per Customer Per Month

Pakistan

New Zealand

Netherlands

Morocco

Mexico

Korea

Japan

Italy

IsraelHungary

Germany

France

Egypt

Denmark

Colombia

China

Brazil

Belgium

AustriaUkraine

Australia

Argentina

Singapore

Laos

Sri Lanka

Malaysia

ThailandVietnam

Philippines

Bangladesh

Indonesia

India

Maintain Enhance yield

6 Booz & Company

From a network perspective, higher

usage per BTS is a direct result of a

higher customer usage market strategy

in general. It also encompasses non-

voice usage such as short message

service (SMS), an offering that MNOs

in the Philippines have used to their

advantage. Further, it incorporates

higher spectral efficiency. MNOs in the 900 MHz band typically need

fewer base stations to cover the same

area, all other factors being equal,

and thus enjoy higher utilization than

those operating in, say, the 1800

MHz band in voice (data networks

may have additional considerations).

In addition, while encouraging usage,

it is critical to combine it with better

ARPM to maximize overall yield. An

indiscriminate offering of “all you can

eat” plans is perhaps not the best way

to embark on this strategy; ideally,

such plans should be offered only

after an appropriate analysis of the

calling patterns of various customer

segments.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom

in the industry, operators in low

ARPU markets such as India do

not have a cost structure that is

very different from those in more

industrialized parts of the world.

A quick scan of the cost baskets

in any given TCO model reveals

that all elements contribute more

or less uniformly to the overall

cost base irrespective of geography,

although the absolute cost base

differs significantly. From largest to smallest with respect to both

their contribution to the cost base

and the size of the difference across

geographies, these cost components

include the following:

Technology (network and IT)•

Marketing (sales, distribution, • subscriber acquisition, and

customer service)

General and administrative (G&A; • includes regulation-related costs)

While encouraging usage, it is

critical to combine it with better

ARPM to maximize overall yield.

7Booz & Company

Technology expenses are common

to all geographies, and they can

be broken down generally into

four categories: passive network

infrastructure, active network

infrastructure, data delivery, and

maintenance.

For the purposes of cutting costs

meaningfully, it is important

to consider passive and active

infrastructure separately.

Network costs typically account for

the single largest component of TCO,

irrespective of geography. That is

why the network is an obvious first choice for any cost-cutting exercise,

and why periodic network evaluations

are one key to containing expenses.

Moreover, during the next few

years, the network cost component

is likely to increase further because

of projected growth in demand for

mobile broadband.

Passive Network Infrastructure

In the passive network, towers, leases,

and rentals contribute the bulk of

expenses, followed by energy costs.

MNOs employ several measures to

contain these costs. Sharing passive

facilities is the most widely known

tactic; it has been standard practice

in western European countries and

India, and is fast finding acceptance among MNOs in Africa as well. Two

recent examples, both announced in

December 2010, are the Millicom deal

with Helios Towers in the Democratic

Republic of Congo, and MTN and

American Tower’s joint venture in

Ghana.

Divestiture is another option. An

increasing number of operators

have begun to spin off their tower

businesses as separate entities or

sell passive assets to specialist tower

companies. Enhanced tenancy, arising

from such tower sharing deals, can

result in 5 to 7 percent lower network

operating expenses.

After tower costs, the second most

significant cost savings often comes from reducing the energy costs of

a tower setup. The current energy

system in most developing nations

in Asia and Africa presents a double

whammy for telecom players. First,

inadequate grid power results in

ballooning energy costs; second, the

typically unpredictable power supply

requires backup generators. Battery

backup is sufficient for most power outages, but generators are needed to

run the air-conditioning that keeps

the batteries cool. In developing

nations with poor socioeconomic

conditions, fuel theft may add to the

cost. Thus, something that is not

actually required to run the network

ends up adding significant cost.

There are several ways of reducing

expenses related to passive

infrastructure. Start with a thorough

root cause analysis of the energy setup

as well as the overall tower design.

This should ideally be done before

a service is built and rolled out. For

example, negotiate tower tenancy

deals so that energy expenses are

paid by the tower company rather

than passed through to the operator;

otherwise, you will bear the cost but

have a limited operational role for

making improvements. Next, look

for energy-efficient shelter equipment; recent advances in materials

technology help eliminate the need for

local generators, reducing both capital

OPTIMIZING

TECHNOLOGY

INVESTMENT

8 Booz & Company

costs in generator purchase and

operational expenditure. Also explore

green sourcing of electricity, shifting

consumption to renewable energy

and reducing your company’s carbon

footprint; this can allow you to take

advantage of government incentives

and subsidies, while fulfilling social objectives. If you are already in

business, these measures are still

appropriate, but redeployment costs

may diminish or even entirely erode

your gains.

Active Network Infrastructure

These network costs are driven by the

geographic dispersion of customers

and their usage patterns for voice

versus data. These factors determine

the number of BTS sites needed, the

required capacity per BTS, and the

attendant backhaul costs.

To optimize all these factors, look at

your active infrastructure expenses

from several angles: technology used,

backhaul costs, and maintenance

costs. One mobile telecom provider

mapped its current usage levels across

an entire BTS network to optimally

allocate planned investments (see

Exhibit 4). Network planners found

that highly utilized sites, and those

with increased traffic, are prime

candidates for additional BTSs and/

or for the rollout of enhanced 3G

or 4G technologies. This can ensure

a continued high-quality consumer

experience and proactively protect

the flow of revenue. To manage high growth on moderately utilized sites,

MNOs can design targeted offerings

to customers to evenly spread usage

throughout the day and balance

traffic growth. MNOs in Africa and India are, with varying degrees of

success, experimenting with BTS-level

dynamic tariff plans. Such initiatives

should be carefully introduced to

temper the excitement around the

offers, with adequate transparency

Exhibit 4 Base Transceiver Station Assessment for Cost Optimization

Source: Booz & Company analysis

A

C

B

Medium (30%-60%)Low (<30%) High (>60%)

BTS Utilization (%)

Medium (0%-10%)

MonthlyTraffic Growth

Low (<0%)

High (>10%)

BTS UTILIZATION GRID

(% OF TOTAL BTSs)

Targeted 3G rollout

Backhaul optimization

Dynamic pricing

Relocation/active sharing