uncdcrp carteret co presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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Imagining the Futures
Department of City and Regional Planning
Fall 2011 Land Use and
Environmental Planning Workshop
Brennan Bouma
Daniel Brookshire
Katrina Durbak
Vivian JaynesBarron Monroe
Ryan Parzick
Kyle Vangel
Casey Weissman-Vermeulen
David Daddio (Project Manager)
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Support PlanIt Easts fall 2012 Reality Check
exercise using Carteret County as our subject
case:
Conduct comparative communities assessmentApply scenario planning techniques
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What is scenario planning? Contingent and Robust Plans
Overall process
Recommendations
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ComparativeCommunities
Analysis(Identify Growth Drivers)
ScenarioPlanning
(Imagine PlausibleFutures)
Visualizeand Measure
(Communicate thescenarios)
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What is scenario planning
Construct plausible futures
Shake assumptions
Messy but realistic
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Present
statePlan
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PreferredFuture
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Present
state
Robust
Plan
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Present
statePlan 2
Plan 1
Plan 3
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60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Carteret County Population
Projections
Actual Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (trend)
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Accomack County, VABarnstable County, MABeaufort County, SCJackson County, MSKent County, DEOkaloosa County, FL
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Forces acting upon Carteret Highway Improvements Port Expansion Tourism Military
CountyTransportation
/ PortsTourism Military
Accomack County, VA X XBarnstable County, MA X X
Beaufort County, SC X
Jackson County, MS X X
Kent County, DE X
Okaloosa County, FL X X
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Transportation
1990 Population Density 2010 Population Density
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Tourism
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Indexe
dto
1970
(1970
=1)
Carteret
Accomack
Barnstable
Okaloosa
SeasonalHousingUnitChange,Indexed
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population
Housing
OkaloosaCounty:Housingvs.PopulationAnnualGrowth
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Military
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Barnstable
Okaloosa
Beaufort
Carteret
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
MilitaryEmploymentasShareofTotalEmployment TotalMilitaryJobs
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In each scenario: Different Growth Drivers affect development Different regard for Suitability factors
Suitability Factors Include:Protected Lands Military Land Soils CAMAInfrastructure: Roads, Piped Water and Sewer ServiceProximity to Existing Development and Population Density
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Cooperation Drive Success External Forces Dominate
Tourist Trap
Robust
Plan
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48,179
61,673
78,947
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Housing Units
Actual
Projected
66,469
79,061
94,039
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Population
ActualProjected
Carteret booms withhighway improvements
Key regional stakeholdersdevelop proactive growth
management strategy
Growth is channeled intoareas most suitable
environmentally, socially,
and fiscally
Diverse and resilient coastaleconomy is anchored by
service, military, logistical,
and tourism sectors
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48,179
66,337
91,340
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Housing Units
Actual
Projected
66,469
81,025
98,769
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Population
ActualProjected
Carteret experiences rapidpopulation and housing
growth
Regional stakeholdersunable to agree how County
can grow sustainably
Tourist-dominated Countycomes to be known as The
New Myrtle Beach
MCAS Cherry Point shrinksafter BRAC round in the
2020s substantially reduces
its personnel
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48,179
60,185
75,184
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Housing Units
Actual
Projected
Global geopolitics leadCarteret to become a
military / logistics center
Improvements to Port ofMorehead City and highways
attract logistics firms
Military and logisticsinterests protect expansion
opportunities, but ignore
environmentally sensitiveareas
Tourists feel Carteret has lostits charm
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66,469
79,061
94,039
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Population
ActualProjected
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27,570
32,300
27,570
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Cooperation Tourist Trap External Forces
Projected Population Change
30,768
43,161
27,005
-5,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
50,000
Cooperation Tourist Trap External Forces
Projected Housing Unit Change
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Scenario
DevelopmentOutside Sewer
Service Areas Flood Risk
Encroachmenton Agricultural
Lands
Encroachment onHigh Biodiversity
Value Areas
Cooperation DriveSuccess
Medium Medium Low LowTourist Trap High High Medium MediumExternal ForcesDominate
High High Medium Medium
Cooperation Drive Success External Forces DominateTourist Trap
Source: NC DENR
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Forging partnerships involves deep deliberation and is possibleonly over time.
The pursuit of one preferred scenario in scenario planningdistracts from the consideration of multiple uncontrollable
external forces. Scenario planning has tremendous data needs. Storm Surge in the near term is similar to sea level rise in the long
term.
Instead of relying on technology to create scenarios, focus moreon the purpose of the stories.
Scenario planning should draw upon both local expertise andoutside knowledge
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Questions? Contact:David Daddio
City and Regional Planning Masters Candidate, [email protected]
Department of City and Regional Planning29