Uncertainty in Fisheries: A new focus for NY Sea Grant Extension, Research

and Communication

Dave MacNeill NY Sea Grant

SUNY Oswego dbm4@cornell.edu

“It ain’t rocket science…..”

Dr. Curlington StoogelyDr. Curlington Stoogely

Has Fisheries Management Failed Us ??

More failures than successes in both marine and freshwater fisheries. Many fisheries have “collapsed” from overexploitation. Fishery collapses can be “invisible”, hence are often only recognized

after they have occurred. Biological and ecological risks difficult to quantify vs. economic risks. Little consideration of “risk” in communication and decision-making. Failure to utilize better precautionary management. Few fishery recovery plans exist. Management objectives are often poorly defined. Failure to take multi-species, ecosystem approaches to management. Lack of data integration. Scientific methods are sometimes flawed. Disconnect between scientists, assessment biologists, and the public. Political/economic decisions can often outweigh scientific data.

Angler’s Beliefs

Fisheries science and fisheries assessments are not objective, but reflect political agendas

Science is too conservative, too-much emphasis on risks.

Scientists make unrealistic assumptions about the biology and population dynamics of fish.

Fisheries assessments employ the same techniques each year, sample the same areas, and don’t keep up with technology.

Regulations change too often and too quickly, before management actions can be evaluated.

“They couldn’t hit an elephant at this dist… (gasp)…..(thud)” General John B. Sedgwick, 1864

“A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the

range of probability.” Harvard Economic Society, 16 November 1929

“No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be

caught napping.” Frank Knox, Secretary of the Navy, 4 December 1941

“The future just ain’t what it used to be.” Yogi Berra

(In) famous Quotes on Risk and Uncertainty

And, my favorite……

“As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.”

— Donald Rumsfeldt, Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

What is Uncertainty?• Major resource management dilemma !!• Wide range of possible outcomes, rare events and

“surprises” from dynamics/instability of nature, political systems and institutions.

• Sampling, methodological, analytic, prediction errors.

• Poor understanding of how nature really works, large spatial and temporal scales of nature = inability to predict future physical environments and biological responses.

• Addressed largely by sophisticated modeling and intensive data collection/analysis.

• A concept to be better incorporated into Great Lakes management (and SG extension/research).

Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainties with a deck of cards??

The uncertainty: What poker hand will I draw next?

The risk: What is the probability of drawing it? (<1%)

The Dead Man’s Hand: unlucky for Wild Bill Hickok?

But, the deck of cards changes unexpectedly, adding even more risk and uncertainty!!

The Risk ??

Some Fisheries Uncertainties in the Great Lakes

• How many fish are there in the lake? How many fish should be stocked? What happens to them after stocking? How many prey fish do they eat?

• What are the best ways to sample fish to get good information?

• What changes are going on in lake ecosystems? What are the impacts of invasive species? How many more are on their way? Can we prevent more from entering the lakes?

• How sustainable are our fisheries (biologically and economically)?

• How conservative should fisheries managers be in making decisions? What are the best ways to manage the fisheries?

Problems with ignoring uncertainty

Over fishing, overstocking, prey fish depletion are not immediately apparent.

These factors have the added effect of increasing vulnerability to environmental effects.

Even if harvest and stocking rates can be changed, the changes are hard to implement due to resistance by the fishing industry.

Mortality due to fishing may be underestimated. System productivity may be impaired. Little opportunity to improve sampling, assessment,

modeling efforts. Decision-making ability remains low. Escalating polarity between stakeholders,

management and scientists.

How can uncertainty be addressed??• Modeling/forecasting

– Mathematical descriptions of fisheries system that provides some information on important relationships and permits some measure of trend analysis with complex (“noisy”) data sets. e.g. Non-linear stochastic (dynamic) models, Taken’s theorem, Bayesian mumbo-jumbo.

• State of the art assessment/analytical tools– Reduce variance of parameter estimates, understanding fish spatial dynamics, assess

gear efficiency e.g. hydroacoustics, geostatistics, flume tank experiments,

• Risk assessment– Using fisheries information to present managers with probabilistic descriptions of the

likely effects of alternative future management actions. e.g. Monte Carlo simulations/projections.

• Risk management– Making decisions concerning risks/uncertainties using defined criteria and selecting a

management option that provide optimal benefits. e.g. Decision analysis.

• Economic valuations– Economic information on $$ cost/benefits of management actions. e.g. Ecological

economics.

Perspectives on modeling from two really smart guys……

George Box

“Any dynamical system can be Any dynamical system can be reconstructed from a reconstructed from a sequence of observations of sequence of observations of the state of the dynamical the state of the dynamical system…”system…”

““All models are wrong, All models are wrong, some are useful..”some are useful..”

Floris Taken

“Uncertain” NY Sea Grant Activities

Workshop on design/implementation of citizen participation process to develop LO fish community objectives for NYSDEC fisheries managers. (2002).

Lake Ontario Prey Fish Assessment Review (2003). Workshop on tools for understanding uncertainties in GL

fisheries for fisheries managers in OMNR, NYSDEC (2005). Workshop on decision-making tools for economic

uncertainties for coastal business owners (2006). Workshop on risk assessment and decision-making in

marine fisheries management for fisheries managers and stakeholders. (2006).

Workshop on bottom trawl design, efficiency, and operation for GL agency assessment biologists and technicians. (2007).

NY Sea Grant Staff Meeting

And now, humble perspectives from the trenches

The “uncertain” role of NY Sea Grant

Improved forecasting tools. Core research on fish population dynamics,

sustainability, assessment and analytical tools. Better integration of science, risk assessment,

decision-analysis into resource management. Improved economic tools. Improved human dimensions tools. Improved communication of risk and decision-

making to resource stakeholders and managers.

Thanks!Thanks!