uncle sam wants you – in the war against climate change
TRANSCRIPT
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Uncle Sam Wants You to Help Save the Planet
1
Elton B. Sherwin
Venture Capitalist,
Author, Businessman
What Can a
College Student
Do About Climate
Change?
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Here Today to Recruit You in the Battle to
Save the Planet
2 Talk specifically about what you can do
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3
Recent Past, 1961-1979
Our Country is About to Change
White House Report on Climate Change
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4
Some Changes Will Be Subtle
White House Report on Climate Change
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
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5
Some Changes Will Be Dramatic
White House Report on Climate Change
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
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6
Some Models Now Predict
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Half the nation
enduring summers
where 100º days
are common
Tropical diseases
invading America’s
shores
Wine making
moving to the
northern states
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Elton B. Sherwin
Venture Capitalist, Author, Businessman,
Board of Directors of Six Companies – Including NRG Dynamix, Hybrid Vehicles
7
November 29, 2010
Notre Dame de Namur University
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Two Visions of 21st Century
Two Different Roads
8
We Must Choose
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Groundhog Day Scenario
20th Century
9
21st Century
First Option
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Repeat Last 100 Years
Business as usual:
Continued industrialization using fossil fuels
Double the number of cars
Double the number of coal-fired power
plants
Double air pollution
Add 2 or 3 billion additional people
Population of six to nine “new Americas”
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12
Not Enough Planet
Absorb all the air pollution
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What Will Likely Happen
Business as Usual
Scenario?
Groundhog Day Plan
Keep Doing it Over and Over
Again
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14
Muir & Riggs
Glaciers Alaska
Many of the
World’s Glaciers
Will Dissapear
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15
North Pole Will Collapse
In the Summer
North Pole
NASA
Missing Ice In 2007, much
of the North
Pole
disappeared
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Greenland Will Melt
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
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Ocean Rise Estimates this Century
16 inches
3 feet
11 feet
EPA and National Research
Council Estimates
6 feet
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19 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
San Jose
San
Francisco
Vallejo
San Rafael
Oakland
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SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Foster City
East Palo Alto Menlo Park
16 Inches
of Sea Rise
Silicon
Valley
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SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov
Moffett Field
237
Sun,
Google,
and, Cisco
all at risk
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July Temperatures
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
California’s
agricultural
regions will be
hard hit
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Midcentury
Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation
5+
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Could See Increases of 10 to 14
Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley*
2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy
*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
10+
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Smaller snowpack
More water shortages
Less water for agriculture
“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”
Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
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Heat Waves in Los Angeles
Basin Will Be Much More
Frequent
Dan Steinberg, Associated Press
“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California” Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS
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It Is Not Just California
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Many cities at risk
• Miami
• Key West
• Tampa
• New York
• Venice
• Amsterdam
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In 150 years, students may study
New Orleans like Carthage:
A city that no longer exists
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World’s Poor
Hard Hit
Move 17
million
people this
century?
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Some Consequences
Are Unpredictable
Some Are Irreversible
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
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Ice Sheets Collapse
Consequences
are Huge
20+ Feet of
Ocean Rise
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
NSF Website and the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
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Acidification and Warming
of the Ocean Risk of some piece of the ecosystem collapsing
NOAA
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Effect on Ocean Currents
Hard to Predict
Ocean’s Conveyor is Driven by
a Cold Arctic
Image: Argonne
National Laboratory
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Picture: MSU.edu
400 Gigatons Of Methane Locked
In The Frozen Arctic Tundra
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Methane Burps
A Ticking Time Bomb
There are enormous
quantities of naturally
occurring greenhouse
gasses trapped in ice-like
structures in the cold
northern muds and at the
bottom of the seas.
Published on 15 Dec 2004 by Baltimore Sun (Common Dreams). Archiv ed on 15 Dec 2004.
by John Atcheson
Image courtesy of NASA
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Dramatic
Change in
Just 12
Years
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An Area the Size of Germany and
France Combined is Melting
Unprecedented
and
Irreversible
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“The climate is nearing tipping
points. Changes are beginning
to appear and there is a
potential for explosive
changes, effects that would be
irreversible”
James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies
The Observer, February 15, 2009,
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“Climate change is real. It's
happening now.”
Senator John McCain
August 24, 2009
LA Times
Kristen Wyatt Associated Press http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-ap-us-
global-warming-national-parks,0,6162897.story
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In Your Lifetime
Temperatures will rise faster
More extinctions
More climate refugees
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Business As Usual
Collapse
North Pole
Greenland
West Antarctic
Himalayas
Melting permafrost
Acidification of oceans
Rapid species extinction
Ocean clathrates (frozen methane)
Deforestation and mega fires
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Six of These will
Happen in Your
Lifetime
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Why is This
Happening?
Burning too much stuff
Coal
Tropical forests
Wood and agricultural waste
Being Inefficient
10% efficient homes
18% efficient cars
43
Air pollution
Soot
CO2
CO
Methane
Ozone
Nitrous Oxide
HFCs/CFCs
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Deadly Combination
Inefficiency
Burning
Air pollution
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Business as Usual
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Extreme Makeover – Home Edition
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Scenario 2
Amory Lovins' home
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Objective “Home Makeover”
Better Environment
Safer Environment
For Everyone
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55 Recommendations
Find more:
www.EltonSherwin.com
Download first few chapters free:
Amazon Kindle reader for:
iPhone PCs
iPad Droid
Blackberry Mac
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World-
wide Next
20 Years
(Soot)
World-wide Campaign Against
Soot, Air pollution and Refrigerants
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Attach All
Appliances to
the Internet
Owners know how
much power each
one is using
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Put More Information On-line
52
www.energyrating.gov.au 1
Brand Refrigerators-
Freezers
Model
Total
Volume
(litres)
Energy
Consumption
(kWh/annum)
10 Yr
Energy
Cost
Star Rating
DAEWOO FRN-U20__I 603 515 $875 *****
WHIRLPOOL 6E_2__XR_ 640 614 $1,043 *****
SAMSUNG SRS767DGB 768 731 $1,242 ****
GENERAL
ELECTRIC PCG25
GSG25MIP__ 761 729 $1,239 ****
1 There is much to like about the Australian government’s site, foremost is showing the ten-year cost of
energy. I like it even better than showing the five-year costs.
The site also leaves old appliances on the web site, even when they are no longer sold in stores.
This is enormously helpful, not only to users of eBay, but also for energy auditors and building
owners.
The site also grades products, which is good. Unfortunately, the Australians give products one or
two stars that would earn a “D” or “F” under the scheme I proposed earlier (page 184).
I would purchase a product with one or two stars. I would never bring a product home with a
“D” or “F” on the label. Grades work; stars and happy faces do not. That is why we stop
giving stars in elementary school and switch to grades.
I predict that every foreign appliance and consumer electronics company will lobby against
grades, forgetting that they already sell graded products in Europe, and some will actually
convince lawmakers that grades are “too hard.” It is amazing how many “capitalists” do not seem
to like competition.
Back to the topic at hand, it would be great if the DOE’s new web site could help find “plug
compatible” new, replacement products and calculate breakeven points: Which newer products
are the same size? What new refrigerator is exactly the same size as the old one? What new attic
fan will exactly fit in the cutout created for the old fan? How much more efficient are the new
products, compared to the one I have installed? Is the old product so wasteful that one should
replace it immediately?
The DOE does not have to do all this research. Energy auditors and average Americans will
provide much of this information.
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Energy Hog Website
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Put Grades on All Products
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Grade Buildings
Start grading buildings based on
ACTUAL ENERGY USE
Inefficient buildings steal jobs and wealth
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55-step Action Plan
“Home Makeover”
Create Better Homes
Create Jobs
Create Wealth
Eliminate Air Pollution
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Checklists
Documents section of:
www.EltonSherwin.com
www.Slideshare.net/EltonSherwin
Energy Wasters at Work
Energy Wasters at Home
Cities and Counties
Simple Green Building Code
Homes
Commercial Property
www.Amazon.com
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Dramatic Savings
$5/month utility bill
Some homes in
Woodside use 100
times as much
energy!
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Amory Lovins' home
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“The time for action is now.”
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
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Elton’s Focus
Buildings
Accurate grades
Mega-projects sip energy
Fast action greenhouse agents
Soot, methane, CO, ozone,
refrigerants
Joint action with China
Next year
NGOs take a family planning pledge
Subsistence farmers
YouTube
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What Are You Going to Do??
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Service Project
www.stovesonline.co.u
k/darfur-stove.html
Efficient
Cookstoves
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Work with a Middle/High School
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Start An Energy Hog Contest or
Website
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Use Your Skills and Passions
Teach or train
Research, count, measure
Improve efficiency – upgrade buildings
Reduce emissions
Write, blog, Facebook
Start a new group
Contest
Service project
Video production
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Work on Policy Issues
Air pollution
Carbon tax
Waste management
DMV fees
Congestion fees
Urban planning
International relations…
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Or
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Many Opportunities
Pool pumps
Window films
Motor controls
Smart lighting
Building tune ups
Thermal storage on air conditioners
Green building code recommendations
Research
Smart appliances 67
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Pick One
School
Work
Church
A nonprofit
A local dump
Your utility
One town (outside of US)
A local water treatment
plant
City planning department
State or federal
government
A local university
On the web
In the media
With the elderly
With low-income housing
With local agriculture
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and Focus
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You Did Not Create the Problem
You Are Inheriting It
It Will Change Your World
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More Information
www.EltonSherwin.com
www.eltonsherwin.wordpress.com
www.facebook.com/EltonSherwin
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Questions
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Appendix
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Recent Past, 1961-1979
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099
Number of Days Over 100ºF
White House Report on Climate Change
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Recommended Label In Monthly Utility Bill
C-
B+
Electricity**
Gas**
*125 is highest score
1 is lowest
Compared to all federal buildings in
America (See Inverted Scale with Progressive Weighting)
** The energy grade is determined
comparing this building to other similar
buildings in similar climates
74 *
Image from iStockphoto
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Why This Label
Grades motivate change
Rewards small improvements Automatically update
monthly
Universal participation Does not require pre-audits
Fair: works for all sizes of buildings
Drive dramatic reductions in energy consumption
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http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations
http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6
Also, see
Response to the
National Energy Rating Program for Homes
Request for Information
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North Pole Ice Thickness
In 2009, less
than 15% of
the North
Pole was
“old ice.”
North Pole, NASA
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McKinsey
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McKinsey 2007
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Sector Specific Abatement Cost Curves
Agriculture in the UK
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The First Report of the UK Committee on Climate Change
December 2008
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US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane,
Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture.
CO2 Emissions:
Circled sources are
mostly buildings
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Electricity Consumption in
Healthcare Buildings