under the lens - 04-18-13-sub - gmtp -may-2013-slowing global growth
TRANSCRIPT
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Contraction : A Major ConcernRolling Over
Impact: Signs of Slowing
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
GLOBAL RISK Driver$: Aggregated Risk Metric: 47% - Economic Risk: 60%
• IMF’s World Economic Outlook - Reduces Global Growth Outlook • IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report - • Austerity Policy Dead : Central Bank Policy Reliance
MACRO SITUATION Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #1 (of 7) Macro Surprise Index Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #2 (of 7) Cumulative Global PMI Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #6 (of 7) Consensus Earning Estimates
• Emerging 5 Year Global Trends• Easing at the Zero Bound: Beyond QE & the “Foolproof Way”
REGIONAL Driver$: Japan - the Epicenter of the next Financial Crisis Within 18-24
• US Recovery Rolling Over
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
POLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
2 Weeks Ago Updated
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
Japan is to save us all?
IMF's Lagarde Is "Deliberately, Decisively, Desperately Optimistic“Zero Hedge 04-18-13
UK’s Osborne (Austerity) girds for battle with IMF Financial Times 04-18-13
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
JAPAN - Recap Since Shinzo Abe took power and 'Abenomics".
• Japan is the globes biggest debtor as a percentage of GDP both in total debt and sovereign debt.
It is a magnitude larger global problem than Europe and worsening rapidly,
• Japan is in the third straight quarter of recession at -3.5%,
• Japan experiencing first Negative Quarterly Current Account and Trade Deficits,
• A 50% over-valued Yen has hurt confidence, investment and competitive position,
• IMF warned Japanese debt is "unstable or "unpayable' within the current projections,
• Japan's QE 9 and QE10 were complete failures. They are lessons for the rest of the world,
• Japan is the now the "New Front" in Global Currency Wars as it begins aggressive central bank
balance sheet expansion. The new BOJ Governor is firmly committed to immediate Monetary Expansion,
• Japan is also presently the Global Front Runner in Outright Monetization (OMF),
• BOJ was pressured by the newly elected regime to 'rip up' government debt. The BOJ Governor subsequently retired,
• Significant Yen Devaluation and Nikkei market appreciation has occurred in anticipation of an additional one 'quadrillion' yen being created,
• Shinzo Abe through the BOJ has now establishment of an extremely aggressive BOJ Policy of 2% Inflation within 2 Years.
• INSOLVENT:• Debts are 23X your tax revenues = Insolvency • Doubling Monetary in 2 years is extremely experimental with these existing debt levels, • What they are trying to do is devalue the currency to attempt to become more competitive while holding their rates market flat.• Japan will lose control of rates, since leaving the zone of insolvency is impossible now.• A 1% increase in interest rates would cost 255 of tax revenue = Insolvency • "the BOJ is monetizing at a rate around 75% of the Fed on an economy that is one-third the size of the US!"• How could anyone expect that they will get their money back at the value it is presently being placed at??
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Developed economy governments are insolvent The process of deleveraging and global rebalancing is underway Outsized dislocations from “Moral Hazard & Unintended Consequences” of policy actions Shorter and more volatile economic cycles that are globally synchronized Drop of confidence in policymakers, institutions and the “system” at large Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conflict Market prices only reflect fair value by accident and in passing The loss of central bank independence with likely unintended consequences Ongoing battle between deflation and reflationary forces
DRIVER$
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
Global Financial Repression
The Robbery of Savers, the Retired, and the Elderly
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
Shrinking Equity to Support Debt
Global Macro Tipping PointsApril 18th, 2013
Limits of Global Growth
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Contraction : A Major ConcernRolling Over
Impact: Signs of Slowing
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