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Understanding China Chen Mingming Senior Communication Advisor to the Chinese Foreign Ministry Former Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand and Sweden

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Page 1: Understanding China

Understanding China

Chen Mingming

Senior Communication Advisor to the Chinese Foreign Ministry Former Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand and Sweden

Page 2: Understanding China

China in Profile

Page 3: Understanding China
Page 4: Understanding China

China in Profile

• Name: the People's Republic of China(PRC)• Land: 9.6 million square kilometers. Third largest country

in the world, next to Russia and Canada; is as large as Europe , or 1/3 of Africa.

• has 14 neighbors(more than any other country), and 8 maritime nighbors

• 2014 Population: 1.368 billion, accounting for close to 20% of global total; natural population growth rate 0.52%, lower than average level of developiing countries.

• Most populous and largest developing country in the world

• Largest energy consuming country, taking up 23 % of global energy consumption; largest manufacturing country; largest material consuming country

Page 5: Understanding China

China in Profile• second largest economy and largest trading

nation in world • 2014 GDP: 10.4 trillion dollars; next only to

US(16 trillion dollars , five times that of Africa), 18% of global total.

• 2014 per capita GDP: 7380 dollars, (13% of U.S, equalivant to that of UK in early 1950s) ranking 87th place in world , lowest among major economies ; 2/3 of world average , on a par with Peru

• largest foreign investment destination ( 2014 )

Page 6: Understanding China

China in Profile • 2015GDP growth:6.9%, contributing to 30% of

global growth(average global GDP growth:2.5%) , adding more to global output than any other country

• Annual GDP increase the same as total GDP of Turkey(17th largest economy)

• share of public health spending in GDP:5.1%(developing countries: 10%), education: 4%(US: 4.8%); R&D, 2.09%(higher than EU)

• Scientists & engineers: 3.2 million, largest in world

Page 7: Understanding China

China in Profile • Total import and export of 2015: 3.96 trillion dollars, with foreign

trade accounting for 45% of GDP and contributing to 10.5% of economic growth.

Foreign exchange reserves in August, 2015): 3.4 trillion dollars, 30% of global total.

• 2,850 universities and colleges and 24 million university and college students, 7.5 million university graduates in 2015 (more than Finland's total population)

• Pyramid Income structure: aflluent:1%, middle income group(10,000 -100 , 000dollars, 300 million people, 30% of global total): 29%; low income group: 70%

• People below poverty line(1.25 dollars/day): 77 million(6.5 % of total population , 2rd largest group in world: India has largest group)

Page 8: Understanding China

China in Profile• Average life expectancy: 76 years old (India 65,world

average:69.6); • Urban unemployment rate: 4.09%(2014)• 2015 inflation rate: 1.4%; • Service's share of GDP: 50.5%; manufacturing: 40.5%;

agriculture: 9%(2015)• Investment's share of GDP: 54.4%; consumption:50;

( US:70%)• Savings as share of GDP: 53%, highest in world( 8 times of

US); • Basic self-sufficiency in food:90%; energy: 85%• Private sector's share of GDP: over 60%. 16 million private

businesses• New jobs created in 2015: 13 million, largest in history• Foreign aid in 2012: over two billion dollars

Page 9: Understanding China

Topography and Its Impact on Evution of Chinese Civilization

• China is situated in East Asia and faces West Pacific. It is surrounded by mountain ranges in the southwest and Gobi Deserts in the west and north, which serve as natural shields. Despite a coastline of over 10,000 kilometers, China has been a continental power, not maritime power.

• Independent growth of Chinese culture and language. Interaction with other cultures began only after Chinese culture took shape.

Page 10: Understanding China

Topography and Its Impact on Evolution of Chinese Civilization

Not subjected to conquest by external

civilization, as was the case in other parts of the world.(ancient Egyptian civilization)

Self-sufficiency: little incentive to expand external contacts, which led to closing the country economically.

Page 11: Understanding China

Topography and Its Impact on Evolution of Chinese Civilization

An inward looking power: The Great Wall was built to defend itself, not for expansion.

Page 12: Understanding China

Topography and Its Impact on Evolution of Chinese Civilization

• A recorded uninterrupted history of over 4,000 years, only surviving ancient civilization in the world.

• China invented gunpower, the compass, printing and paper making, which exerted a profound impact on the evolution of human civilization.

Page 13: Understanding China

Unification of China (First landmark event in China's history)

• In 221 B.C., Emperor Qin Shihuang unified China after defeating warring states (same time of Roman Empire).

• A landmark event in Chinese history: A centralized governance structure with the emperor being the supreme ruler was established. County became the basic administrative unit, with no kingdoms or dukedoms between it and national government. All local officials owed allegiance to the emperor. No federalism.

Page 14: Understanding China

Unification of China• This model of governance lasted for over 2,000

years, during which China was ruled by 400 emperors in 16 dynasties. Longest functioning political structure in the world.

• China has remained a unified country under the leadership of a centralized government.

• China was the dominant country in East Asia, whose culture exerted great impact on its neighbors, particularly Korea, Japan and Viet Nam. Collectively, this is known as the Chinese cultural zone.

Page 15: Understanding China

Confucius and Shaping of Chinese Mind

• Confucius(551 B.C.-479 B.C.), a great Chinese thinker, philosopher and educator.

Page 16: Understanding China

Confucius and Shaping of Chinese Mind

• He advocated justice, peace, rites, order, benevolence and education for all without discrimination. He developed a code of conduct and ethics which have been observed for generations in China.

• Confucius is to Chinese civilization what Jesus Christ is to Western civilization. But Confucius was not a religious figure, as he did not believe in existence of god.

• China has opened 300 Confucius Institutes overseas to promote understanding of Chinese culture.

Page 17: Understanding China

Two Defining Features of Chinese Culture

1. Belief in unified nation state and a high degree of cohesion: common Chinese identity (caused by China's geographical location)

2.Great power of assimilation • Example: Manchus, a minority group in

Manchuria, occupied the rest of China, and established China's last dynasty, namely, the Qing Dynasty(1644-1911). But the Manchus were completely assimilated into the culture of the Hans whom they had conquered.

Page 18: Understanding China

Religions in China There are over 100 million believers of various

faiths in China.• Buddhism, introduced into China from India in the

first century A.D., is the most influential one. • Taoism, a home grown religion with limited

influence.• Islam, introduced into China in 7th century A.D.

(23 million believers)• Catholicism, introduced into China in early 19th

century(6.5 million believers)• Protestantism, introduced into China in early 19th

century(23 million believers)

Page 19: Understanding China

Religions in China

• China has always been a secular country. Unlike many Western countries, it has no state religion. The power of the state has always been much greater than that of religion.

• Religion's role in shaping the Chinese mind is far less important than Confucianism. Religion's impact on evolution of Chinese culture is limited.

• China does not have a messianic culture of converting others.

Page 20: Understanding China

Composition of the Chinese Nation

• There are 56 ethnic groups in China.• The Han people, the largest group, accounts for

92% of China's total population. So the Chinese culture generally refers to the culture of the Hans. The remaining 55 minority groups are mostly in southwest, northwest and northeast China.

Page 21: Understanding China

Decline of Imperial China

• The Chinese empire reached golden age in the Tang and Song Dynasties(618-1279) —largest economy in the world. The Silk Road linked China with the West. China accounted for 30% of global GDP, higher than that of Europe and similar to that of US in 2000.

Page 22: Understanding China

Decline of Imperial China

• But it saw fast decline in the Qing Dynasty in the 18th century. Chinese rulers blindly believed in superiority of imperial China and refused to open the country to the rest of the world. Thanks to the Industrial Revolution, the West closed gap with China and surpassed it.

Page 23: Understanding China

Decline of Imperial China

• The 19th century was a century of humiliation for China. Western powers forced open China's door, occupied parts of the country and imposed unequal treaties upon it. Hong Kong and Macao respectively came under British rule and Portuguese rule, and Taiwan was occupied by Japan.

• This is why till today, the Chinese are still sensitive about foreign interference in China's internal affairs.

Page 24: Understanding China

Overthrow of Imperial China (Second landmark event in China's history)

• The corrupt Qing government was overthrown by a popular revolution led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen in 1911 which ended the 2,000-year-old imperial rule in China.

• The centenary of the 1911 Revolution was marked in China in 2011. We are just over 100 years away from the collapse of imperial China.

Page 25: Understanding China

Birth of the Communist Party of China(CPC)( Third landmark event in China's history )

• The Republic of China was founded in 1911; the Nationalist Party headed by Dr. Sun Yat-sen gained power.

• The Communist Party of China was formed in 1921. After Dr. Sen Yat-sen's death, the Nationalist Party tried to suppress the CPC, triggering a prolonged civil war.

Page 26: Understanding China

Founding of New China (Fourth landmark event in China's history)

• After the victory in the War against Japanese Aggression, the Nationalist Party provoked a civil war against the CPC. But it was defeated and fled to Taiwan. On October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong, leader of the CPC, proclaimed the founding of the People's Republic of China. This ushered in a new historical stage in contemporary China. The CPC is now 93 years old.

Page 27: Understanding China

Political System of China

• China is a socialist country under the leadership of the CPC. The CPC is the governing party of China. With over 87 million fee-paying members(more than population of Germany), it is the largest political party in the world.

• Eight non-communist parties are engaged in China's governance in cooperation with the CPC.

Page 28: Understanding China

Transition to New Party and Government Leadership

• The most important political development in China in recent years was the 18th CPC National Congress held in November, 2012.

Page 29: Understanding China

Transition to New Party and Government Leadership

• A group of new leaders were elected. Xi Jinping, a ke CPC leader and former Chinese Vice President, was elected new party general secretary at Party Congress in 2012. He became Chinese president in March 2013. Having taken various government posts, Xi is a capable leader and his governance agenda has won solid public support.

Page 30: Understanding China

What Has Led to China's Profound Transformation (Fifth landmark event in China's history)

• China is undergoing profound social • and economic transformation which

started over 30 years ago. • Until then, China had been an agrarian

society since ancient times with over 90% of its population being rural. In modern times, it lagged far behind the West, and poverty, civil strife and starvation were common.

Page 31: Understanding China

What Has Led to China's Profound Transformation

• Things began to improve significantly after the founding of New China under the leadership of Mao Zedong. But Mao later believed that China was on the wrong track of development and started the so-called Cultural Revolution in 1966. It lasted ten years and proved a disastrous exercise that not only closed China but also brought its economy to the brink of bankruptcy.

Page 32: Understanding China

What Has Led to China's Profound Transformation

• The private sector was wiped out. China's gap with the West again widened. China’s GDP was a pitiful 1.8% of global total in the late 1970s.

Page 33: Understanding China

What Has Led to China's Profound Transformation

• Mao Zedong died in 1976, and two years later, Deng Xiaoping , also a founding father of New China, became China's top leader. Deng Xiaoping had a great sense of pragmatism. He believed that China had to change course and lost no time in starting a daring reform and opening-up program. He is therefore referred to as the architect of China's reform and opening-up program by Western media.

Page 34: Understanding China

Rural Reform • China's reform started in the rural areas.

Deng Xiaoping impowered Chinese farmers by introducing a household contract responsibility system to give farmers more incentives in farming. Private economy in rural areas was restored.

• Government purchasing prices of grain were raised. Grain output soared as a result. Thanks to rural reform, hunger and starvation for the first time in China's history became a thing of the past.

Page 35: Understanding China

Rural Reform • Rural reform started the process of

agricultural mechanization, a process that is ongoing. As farming became mechanized, surplus rural labor force increased. China encouraged its farmers to set up small factories which absorbed millions of surplus rural labor force. These small factories were later to become a dynamic private sector. Rural income rose; surplus rural labor force provided needed labor for industrialization/ urbanization.

Page 36: Understanding China

Urban Reform• Sweeping urban reform was introduced in

the early 1980s with the goal of replacing the Soviet-style command economy with a socialist market economy.

Page 37: Understanding China

Urban Reform

• Price control over most products was lifted; capital market developed; stock exchanges set up and hundreds of companies are listed; business acquisition and merger encouraged. Share-holding companies set up.

• Almost all small and medium-sized state-owned enterprises(SOES) were privatized. There were close to 300,000 SOES in early 1990s; government now only controls 100 plus large groups of SOES.

Page 38: Understanding China

Urban Reform

• Private businesses now account for over 70% of national total and contribute to over 60% of China's GDP, and create over 90% of new jobs in China.

Page 39: Understanding China

Urban Reform• Development of housing market in

late 1990s was a most significant development in urban reform, creating huge demand for private housing. The housing sector: engine driving China’s economic growth. In past 15 years, China has built enough apartment buildings to house combined population of Germany, France,UK. Its housing sector & infrastructure account for one fourth of global steel demand.

• Market now plays a major role in resources allocation.

Page 40: Understanding China

Open China’s Economy to World• China's opening started in

eastern coastal region. • Four special economic zones

were set up in the eastern coastal region to attract foreign capital. Shenzhen is one of them. A sleepy fishing village close to Hong Kong in the early 1980s, Shenzhen has grown into a major metropolis with a population of 13 million. Its total export and import rank first in China.

Page 41: Understanding China

Open China’s Economy to World

• China has been the second largest (next only to the U.S.) foreign investment destination, with average daily inflow of foreign investment exceeding 100 million dollars in the past two decades. Between 1979- 2013, over 1.3 trillion dollars of foreign investment was made in China. The figure was 126.7 billion dollars in 2015,a 6.4% increase.

Page 42: Understanding China

Open China’s Economy to World

• Among the global 500 companies, 490 have invested in China.

• Almost all Apple products are made in China. Over 1 million Chinese workers asembled Apple products in China.

Page 43: Understanding China

Special Role of Hong Kong in China’s Opening Up

• Hong Kong was occupied by Britain in the 19th century. China resumed exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997. A system of "One Country, Two Systems" is practiced in HK, and its former social and economic systems have remained basically unchanged.

• An international trading and financial center, HK serves as an indispensable platform for attracting foreign investment and expertise to China. More Chinese companies are listed in HK than in New York.

Page 44: Understanding China

China’s Accession to The WTO – A Landmark Event in China’s Opening-up

• China joined the WTO in 2001, marking a new turning point in China’s opening-up.

• Tariffs were cut from 15.3% to 9.8%, below the average level of developing countries.

Page 45: Understanding China

China’s Accession to The WTO – A Landmark Event in China’s Opening-up

• China has opened most of its economic sectors, particularly the services sector, to foreign investment. It is now more open than the average developing country. In some sectors, it is more open than Japan.

• Significance: China’s full integration into the global economy.

Page 46: Understanding China

China’s Reform and Opening-up: An Unparalleled Success in Human History

• In 34 years since started in 1978, reform and opening up have accomplished China’s transition from a rigid centralized command economy to a vibrant socialist market economy.

• Annual growth rate has been close to 10% for 34 years for over one billion people, unseen in world history. China led the world in growth during this period, with growth rate being 2-4 times of world average.

Page 47: Understanding China

China’s Reform and Opening up: An Unparalleled Success in Human History

• In 1978, China’s GDP stood at 268 billion dollars, ranking 15th place in the world. In 2014, it reached 10.4 trillion dollars and was next only to the United States. China's GDP has doubled every eight years.

• China’s share of global GDP rose from 1.8% in 1978 to 18% in 2014.

Page 48: Understanding China

China’s Reform and Opening up: An Unparalleled Success in Human History

• China’s foreign exchange reserves rose from just 167 million dollars in 1978 to 3.4 trillion dollars in first half of 2014, accounting for 27.5%% of global total and more than any other country. Of total, 1.3 trillion dollars were US treasury bonds by May, 2013.

Page 49: Understanding China

China’s Reform and Opening up: An Unparalleled Success in Human History• 676 million people in

China, close to Africa's population, were lifted out of poverty between 1981-2008, taking up 70% of people lifted out of poverty in same period worldwide. It is an achievement unseen in world history and hailed by the United Nations.

Page 50: Understanding China

China’s Reform and Opening up: An Unparalleled Success in Human History

• China’s economy registered explosive growth, particularly in the auto and housing sectors in the first decade of this century. China produced 2.33 million vehicles in 2001. The number jumped to 23 million in 2014, 25% of total global output. China has overtaken the US to become the largest vehicle producer in the world for 6 years. China will be the largest auto market in the world in next 20 years.

Page 51: Understanding China

China in Industrialization• The reform and opening-up program has

accelerated a massive process of industrialization in China.

• China is the leading global producer and consumer of steel, cement, coal, electricity, machinery, electronics, footwear, garment and household appliances. It is the world’s largest producer and exporter of over 200 industrial products. In 2014, it produced 60% of global output of power generating equipment, 70% of mobile phones and computers,41% of ships, and 25% of cars. 2014 steel output: 823 million tons, over 50% of world total(EU:10%)

• 2014 coal output:3.9 billion tons, over 40% of global total

Page 52: Understanding China

China in Industrialization• In 1995, only two Chinese companies were

among global top 500 companies. The number jumped to 95 last year, making Chinese companies the second largest group among top 500.

• China has surpassed U.S. to become the largest global manufacturers, accounting for over 30% of global manufacturing output. Rapid industrialization has become a key factor driving China’s growth.

Page 53: Understanding China

Urbanization: Most Important Development Trend in China Today• This process started in the early 1980s,

caused by migration of surplus rural labor force to cities. 500 million rural people, more than the combined population of US, UK, France and Italy, have moved into cities. By 2030, another 300 million rural people will move to cities.

Page 54: Understanding China

Urbanization: Most Important Development Trend in China Today

• In 2015, 56% of Chinese, numbering 770 million, live in cities, reaching the world average level. There are 100 cities in China each having a population of over one million, and the number of towns and small cities is growing. 29 of 75 most dynamic cities in the world are in China.

Page 55: Understanding China

Urbanization: Most Important Development Trend in China Today• Urbanization marks China’s transition from a rural

society to an urban society. Urbanization in China is expected to last for 20 years, which means much room for growth.

• Urbanization will create tremendous housing demand and demand for better urban infrastructure and services. This will be the most important force driving China’s development in the coming decades.

• Two billion square meters of buildings are constructed in China annually, accounting for 42% of buildings constructucted globally. Two thirds of new aiports under construction in the world are in China.

Page 56: Understanding China

Global Significance of China’s Development

• China has been by far the biggest driver of global growth since global financial crisis in 2008, contributing to 20% of global growth.

Page 57: Understanding China

Global Significance of China’s Development

• China has become the largest trading nationr. Its trade has grown at an annual rate of 21.7% in past decade(world average:10%). China now accounts for 10.2% of global trade. Its export in 2014 accounted for 12% of global total. Massive import over the years has created 14 million jobs for countries exporting to China.Total import in next five years will reach ten trillion dollars. China is largest trade partner of 127 countries(US: 70 countries)

• In the past decade, foreign companies in China have made 260 billion dollars of net profit, growing 30% annually.

Page 58: Understanding China

Global Significance of China’s Development

• China has been 3rd largest foreign investor in the world for 3 years, with over one trillion dollars of non-financial investment in 177 countries (80% in developing countries) at end of 2015.

• In 2015, China's outbound investment reached 118 billion dollars, growing by 18% and a 40 times increase in 13years. The rate was far higher than that of foreign investment in China(6.4%).

Page 59: Understanding China

Global Significance of China’s Development

• Chinese companies have employed 1.22

million workers in recipient countries. But such investment is still modest, only 9.4% of US overseas investment. Its total outbound investment ranks 11th place in the world.

• China's outbound investment in next decade will reach 1.25 trillion dollars.

Page 60: Understanding China

Global Significance of China’s Development

• China has provided 50 billion dollars of aid to 161 countries and trained 120,000 professionals for developing countries.

• China's foreign aid has increased at an annual rate of 30% in recent years, reaching 15 billion dollars between 2010-2012.

Page 61: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Low Per Capita Share of Resources China’s per capita share of major resources

is well below world average. • Farmland: 43% of average global share.

China produces 25% of global food with 9% of global land feeds 20% of global population.

• Fresh water: 28% of world average and 6.5% of world total, leading to shortage of water in 70% of Chinese cities. Beijing's per capita share of water is only 1/80 of world average, less than that of Middle East. Northern China faces a water crisis.

• Forest resources: 25% of average global share

• Iron ore and copper: 17% Oil and gas: 7.7%

Page 62: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Unbalanced Energy Structure

China meets 85% of its energy needs but depends excessively on coal and import accounts for 60% of its oil needs. Largest coal producer and 4th largest oil producer, 6th largest natual gas producer in the world.

Total energy consumption in 2014: 4.26 billion tons of standard coal

Page 63: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Unbalanced Energy Structure• Mix of energy consumption : Coal: 66%;

oil & natural gas17.1 %; hydro, nuclear, wind and solar power: 16.9%.

Coal is a dirty energy, creating acid rain affecting 1/3 of China’s land area. A major source of carbon emission and pollution. 2013 Coal consumption: 3.7 billion tons, 47% of global total.

Page 64: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Unbalanced Energy Structure

• In 2014, China imported 308 million tons of oil, accounting for 60% of its oil consumption. China has overtaken U. S to become world’s largest oil importer.

• China imports 30% of natural gas used.

Page 65: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Low Economic Efficiency

• China accounts for 18% of global economic output , butt consumes 20% of total global energy, more than the US. But its GDP is 56.5% of US. Productivity 1/12 of US.

• It consumes 53% of global output of cement, 47% of iron ore, 47% of coal, 45% of steel, 11% of oil, 44% of lead, and 38% of copper. China's economy is a typical resources and energy intensive economy.

• China’s per unit GDP energy consumption is 7 times that of Japan and 2.2 times of world average. It accounted for 71% of increase in global energy consumption in 2014.

Page 66: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Lack of competitive core technologies

• 85% of computer chips are imported, reaching192 billion dollars in 2014, accounting for 52% of global output. It is more than China's oil import.

• Although largest auto maker in world, only 40% of cars are produced by local Chinese companies. No Chinese brand car can compete globally.

Page 67: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

• Excess production capacity in almost all sectors, particularly in steel, cement making, coal mining, manufacturing, solar energy products making, shipbuilding; half of shipbuilding capacity lies idle.

• Annual steel making capacity: 900 million tons, actual output in 2014: 820 million tons, over 50% of world total.

Page 68: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Environmental Degradation Trend towards environmental degradation has not been

reversed. • Air pollution affects 50% of China's population. Soil

erosion, pollution and carbon emission remain serious.• Of 160 major Chinese cities, only 10% meet air quality

standard• China has become top global carbon emitter, contributing

to 27% of global carbon emission, although its per capita share of carbon emission is far below that of developed countries.

• Pollution costs 10% of China's GDP.

Page 69: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Environmental Degradation

70% of surface water in China is

polluted; one in four Chinese drinks substandard tap water.

• East China was shrouded by heavy smog in January, last year, worst in half a century. The country now faces an environmental crisis.

• Beijing and surrounding areas account for 1/77 of global land area but consume 10% of global coal output.

Page 70: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Gap in Development between East and West China

• East China accounts for 40% of China’s land area but 77% of its population and over 70% of GDP.

• West China lags far behind East China in development.

• Beijing and Shanghai in East China approach developed countries, whereas several dozen million people in rural West China live on 1.25 dollars a day.

• Excessive dependence on investment: 54.4% of GDP(US: 19%)

Page 71: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Aging PopulationChina faces more severe population

challenge than any other country in the world.

• 16 million newborns last year, more than combined population of Sweden and Denmark.

• Population explosion is no longer an issue confronting China, as is the case in many other developing countries.

Page 72: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Aging Population• China has entered a period of low

fertility and low population increase thanks to one child policy pursued for over 30 years. This policy has reduced population growth by 400 million. Global population reached 7 billion July, 2012, five years later thanks to China's family planning policy.

Page 73: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Aging Population

• Fertility rate is less than 1.5 children per couple, on a par with or lower than developed countries.

• Population growth rate is expected to drop sharply in coming years. China's population will stop growing and start to shrink around 2030.

Page 74: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Aging Population• People reaching 60 and above are

approaching 200 million, 14.9% of total population and largest such group in world. The number will exceed the whole population of U.S. by 2030. Aging population could become a huge burden to government. China could become old before becoming rich.

• There are 85 million people with disabilities, also largest in world.

Page 75: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

Currently, 25 million people enter labor market every year, more than Australia's population. This has created huge pressure for employment. But growth of labor force peaked and began to decline in 2012. Working population in 2013:0.92 billion,67.6% of total population,a drop of 2.44 million over 2012. This means growth needs to be driven more by gains in productivity, not just more labor.

Page 76: Understanding China

China Still Faces Daunting Development Challenges

• Trap in middle income transition?• When a country's average GDP reaches

between 4,000-10,000 dollars, its growth tends to stall due to wage rises, drop in R&D benefits and investment in infrastructure, aging population and increasing environmental costs.

• Can China avoid this trap?

Page 77: Understanding China

Pressing Need for Changing Growth Model

• China’s current growth model is one of high energy and resources consumption, low output and high carbon emission.

• Infrastructural investment is the main driver of growth, while consumption is insufficient.

• It is unbalanced and unsustainable. • The need to rebalance the economy: moving

from investment and credit driven development to consumption and innovation driven development

• China must change this growth model if it is to maintain sound economic development.

Page 78: Understanding China

Pursuit of Sustainable Development

• The government is keenly aware of this daunting development challenge and has adopted the strategy of pursuing balanced and sustainable development.

• Reduce dependence on investment in infrastructure and increase consumption and services

Page 79: Understanding China

Progress in Pursuit of Sustainable Development

Energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions:• In past five years, energy consumption has grown at

4.7%, lower than 7.5% economic growth. Share of coal in energy consumption has been cut by 2%. Energy consumption per GDP unit in 2015 dropped by 5.6%, its growth lowest since 1998.

• China is pursuing the world’s largest clean energy development program and is the top world producer of solar and wind power equipment.

• Goal: Stop Carbon emission growth in 2030; clean energy reaches 20% of total energy consumption.

Page 80: Understanding China

China's economy enters a New Normal

• Growth shifts from high rate growth to medium-high rate growth; dropping from 9.5% annual growth for over 25 years to around 6.9% in 2015, slowest in 25 years.

• Goal: annual growth of around 7% for coming years, which is necessary to create employment.

• Still be one of the highest in the world.• To be achieved by innovation,

development of services and consumption.

Page 81: Understanding China

Progress in Pursuit of Sustainable Development

Energy conservation and reducing carbon emissions:

• China has 20 nuclear power generators, and 28 are under planning or construction, which is the largest nuclear development progrqam in the world. China will become second largest nuclear power producer in 2020. China is world's No. 1 wind power producer, growing 96% annually. Also world's largest hydro and solar power producer. Hydro power: 27% of global total,;5 of 10 largest hydro power stations in world are in China.

Page 82: Understanding China

Progress in Pursuit of Sustainable Development

Energy conservation and carbon emission reduction:

Investment in clean energy in 2014: 90 billion dollars, up 32%, accounting for 29% of global total. (Europe: up 1%)

• Renewable power generation reached 32% of total power generation in 2014.

• Investment in energy saving and environental protection wil reach 315 billion dollars in next 5 years.

Page 83: Understanding China

Progress in Pursuit of Scientific Development

• Support development of West China to narrow gap in regional development by providing financial assistance and building expressways, railways and airports

Result: West China grows faster than East China

Page 84: Understanding China

Progress in Pursuit of Scientific Development

• Increase government input in R&D to raise production efficiency and upgrade industries. Such investment has grown 20% annually in past six years.

• Increase spending on education to train competent professionals

Page 85: Understanding China

China Pursues Peaceful Development

• China will not pursue development at expense of others

• Development through peace and share development interests

• China has entered into free trade agreements with 20 countries in Asia Pacific, Europe and Latin America, opened its huge domestic market so that other countries can benefit from China's development.

Page 86: Understanding China

China’s Aid to Africa

• Africa is a major recipient of Chinese aid. Total Chinese aid to Africa has exceeded 40 billion dollars. China is committed to providing long-term aid to Africa.

• China has sent medical teams to almost all African countries and treated millions of African patients.

• The latest example is fighting Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

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China’s Foreign Policy Goals

• Ensuring a peaceful international environment for China’s development endeavors

• Making friends with all and making enemies with none

• Mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference - cornerstone of China’s diplomacy

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China’s Foreign Policy Goals

• Meeting international responsibility in upholding global peace and security. China has sent 14,000 peacekeepers on 24 missions, more than US, Russia.

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China’s Foreign Policy Goals

• Maintaining good ties with neighbors, major powers like US, Russia, EU and all others

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What Lies Ahead for China’s Development

• China’s reform and opening-up will continue. A high degree of consensus between the public and policy makers about the need to continue the program.

• Robust domestic demand created by industrialization and urbanization will drive China’s economic development for several decades to come. Urbanization in next 20 years will create 8 trillion dollars in demand.

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What Lies Ahead for China’s Development

• Growing at the current rate, China could surpass the United States in 15 years to become the world’s largest economy.

• The goal set at the 18th CPC National Congress lin 2012 is for China’s 2010 GDP and per capita income to double by 2020 and reach current level of medium-level of developed countries by mid-21st century. This goal is obtainable.

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Realize the Chinese Dream• The goal, which is to achieve national

renewal, was put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping when he took over Party leadership in November, 2012.

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The Chinese experience: What is the relevance?

As conditions vary from country to country, the Chinese growth model may not be generally applicable, but it can serve as useful reference for other developing countries in pursuing development.

1.Commitment of political leadership is of paramount importance.

2.Promoting growth should top government agenda.

3.Forging public-government consensus on pursuing this goal

4.Be firm in carrying out reform and discarding unworkable practices.

5.Pursuing government guided market operation

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The Chinese experience: What is the relevance?

6.Embracing globalization and promoting an open economy

7.Fully leveraging a country’s comparative advantages

8.Enhancing education and creating a huge pool of competent professionals

9. Increasing input in R&D to move up the value chain

10.Pursing sound and sustainable development

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Thank you for your interest!