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BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven Molloy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Christopher L. Smith, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Riccardo Trezzi, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Abigail Wozniak, University of Notre Dame, NBER, and IZA

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Page 1: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016

Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven Molloy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Christopher L. Smith, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Riccardo Trezzi, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Abigail Wozniak, University of Notre Dame, NBER, and IZA

Page 2: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

✩

✩

Page 3: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 4: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 5: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 6: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 7: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 8: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 9: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

Hires = NE + UE + JtJ

Separations = EU + EN + JtJ

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Page 17: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
Page 18: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

yikt = β0 +Xiktβk +Θt + ϵikt.

k

k

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δ ΘF ΘW

M (ΘF ,ΘW )

M∗

Page 29: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

M∗ k j

δfjwk > δfjwj and δfkwj ! δfkwk.

M∗

M∗ M∗

ωw = h̄+ δfw|M .

M∗

Page 30: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven
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yit = β0 + β1indtenit + β2indten2it + β3occtenit + β4occten

2it +

+β5jobtenit + β6jobten2it + θXit +Θt +Θi + ϵit.

i t

Page 32: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

Xit

Θt

Θi

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312

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https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v49y2014i2014-02p197-275.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v49y2014i2014-02p197-275.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v100y2010i5p2060-92.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v100y2010i5p2060-92.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecm/emetrp/v81y2013i4p1395-1454.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecm/emetrp/v81y2013i4p1395-1454.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20447.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20447.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v116y2008i6p1150-1196.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v99y1991i4p665-88.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlbes/v29y2011i4p493-505.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlbes/v29y2011i4p493-505.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp1521.html
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2014-09.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2014-09.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v128y2013i3p967-1015.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v128y2013i3p967-1015.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ier/iecrev/v44y2003i2p435-465.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ier/iecrev/v44y2003i2p435-465.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v56y2009i1p109-133.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v56y2009i1p109-133.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20479.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20479.html
https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/11178.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v28y2014i3p3-24.html
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https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejeap/v12y2012i2p1-42n3.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejeap/v12y2012i2p1-42n3.html
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.53.3.571
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.53.3.571
https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/harjfk/rwp12-028.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i483p437-458.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i483p437-458.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v25y1994i1994-2p217-272.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v25y1994i1994-2p217-272.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v23y2009i4p3-24.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v23y2009i4p3-24.html
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https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ilrrev/v56y2003i3p393-408.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/urbstu/v45y2008i3p693-729.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/urbstu/v45y2008i3p693-729.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlabec/doi10.1086-660776.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v79y2014icp39-58.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v79y2014icp39-58.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21154.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21154.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/izalbr/v2y2013i1p1-2110.1186-2193-8997-2-5.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/izalbr/v2y2013i1p1-2110.1186-2193-8997-2-5.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp7231.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp7231.html
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18507.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/699.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/699.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v112y1997i4p1251-1288..html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v112y1997i4p1251-1288..html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i478pc68-c73.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecj/econjl/v112y2002i478pc68-c73.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v25y2011i3p173-96.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v25y2011i3p173-96.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20065.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21564.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21564.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlabec/v18y2000i2p306-23.html
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https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fednsr/707.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/11-293.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pubeco/v95y2011i7-8p973-982.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21199.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18094.html
https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18094.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v99y1991i1p145-76.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v99y1991i1p145-76.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v18y2011i6p742-754.html
https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v18y2011i6p742-754.html
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.005

.01

.015

.02

.025

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

EU

.15

.2.25

.3.35

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

UE

.025

.03

.035

.04

.045

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

EN

.04

.045

.05

.055

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

NE

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.08

.1.1

2.1

4.1

6.1

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Job to job transition

.02

.025

.03

.035

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Interstate migration

.12

.14

.16

.18

.2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Job destruction rate

.12

.14

.16

.18

.2.2

21970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Job creation rate

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-2-1

01

2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annual (5 var) Annual (8 var) Quarterly

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.02

.04

.06

.08

.1

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Job separation rate

0.0

5.1

.15

.21975 1985 1995 2005 2015

All 16-2455+ Males, 25-54Female, 25-54

Job finding rate

0.1

.2.3

.4

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Fraction of employed with 2+ employers in previous year

0.0

2.0

4.0

6

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

All 16-24

55+ Males, 25-54

Female, 25-54

Fraction changing states in previous year

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-.015

-.01

-.005

0.0

05

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Monthly trans. rate from emp. to non-emp.

-.015

-.01

-.005

0.0

05.0

1

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Monthly trans. rate from non-emp. to emp.

-.04

-.02

0.0

2.0

4

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Fraction of emp. with 2+ employers

-.015

-.01

-.005

0.0

051975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year FE Age, sex, and mar. status

Also controlling for ed.

Fraction changing states

Page 63: Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market · 2016-07-31 · BPEA Conference Draft, March 10-11, 2016 Understanding declining fluidity in the U.S. labor market Raven

National Average

-.025

-.02

-.015

-.01

-.005

0

Tren

d in

Lab

or M

arke

t Flu

idity

AKID

MTSD

WVNM

WAWY

ORNH

HIIA

LARI

ALVT

MEMS

CONE

MNAZ

ARMO

NDOK

KYKS

UTCA

WITX

TNNV

FLMA

MDPA

VADC

INMI

DEGA

OHIL

NJNY

CTSC

NC

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AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DEDC

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA MIMN MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

TN

TXUT

VT VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

-.015

-.01

-.005

0.0

05.0

1

Tren

d in

labo

r mar

ket f

luid

ity a

ge 3

5-64

-.003 -.002 -.001 0 .001

Trend in age 23-34

.35

.45

.30

.40

.50

Shar

e sa

ying

mos

t peo

ple

can

be tr

uste

d

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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-2-1

01

2

Stat

e tre

nd in

flui

dity

-2 0 2 4

GSS trust indicator

0.0005

.001

.0015

Share

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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AL

AK

AZ

AR

CACO

CTDE

FL

GA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV NH

NJNMNY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RISC

SD

TN

TXUT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

-.015

-.01

-.005

0.0

05

Tren

d in

labo

r mar

ket f

luid

ity 1

998-

2013

.00004 .00006 .00008 .0001

Trend in human resource membership 1998-2013

AL

AK

AZARCA

CO

CT

DEFL

GA

HI

ID

ILIN

IA

KS KY

LAME

MD MAMI

MNMSMO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN TX UT

VT

VA

WAWV

WI

WY

-.025

-.02

-.015

-.01

-.005

Tren

d in

labo

r mar

ket f

luid

ity

-1.2 -.8 -.4 0 .4 .8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4

Land use regulation

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-2-1

01

2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Baseline (biweight) CF filter Cosine projections

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.01

.02

.03

.04

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

EU transition rate

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

EN transition rate

.15

.2.2

5.3

.35

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

UE transition rate

.02

.04

.06

.08

.1.1

21975 1985 1995 2005 2015

All 16-24

55+ Males, 25-54

Female, 25-54

NE transition rate

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-.005

0.0

05.0

1

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

EU transition rate

-.008

-.006

-.004

-.002

0

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

EN transition rate

-.1-.0

50

.05

.1

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

UE transition rate

-.01

-.005

0.0

05.0

11975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Year FE Age, sex, and mar. status

Also controlling for ed.

NE transition rate

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-.2-.1

0.1

.2.3

1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

22 ≤ Age ≤ 34 35 ≤ Age ≤ 64

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