Understanding Election 2014 Collin County

“Texas isn't a Red State, it's a non-voting state” ~ Paul Begala

@ BattlegroundTX (#BGTX) fundraiser, Austin, Texas - Jun 22, 2013

Michael Handley

political@collindemocrats.org

1

Coordinated Campaign - Democrats Working Together

Collin Democrats Coordinated Campaign

• Road Signs at Major Intersections (160 - $2.9k)

– Collected to reuse in 2016

• Wendy / Leticia yard signs (1,300 - $2.5k)

• Voter’s Guide Newspaper (20,000 - $4k)

• Paid Block Walk Program ($10.2K)

– Average $1 / door

• Candidates’ Breakfast (105 guests)

• Rally with Leticia at Collin College (85+ guests)

• September Candidate Rally (600-700 guests)

• Targeted Web Advertising ($5k)

• Signs placed a ED and EV polling places

2014 In Context 15 Largest Texas Counties

County Registered

Voters Total Votes

% Abbott

REP %

Davis DEM

%

ALL COUNTIES 14,025,441 4,708,556 33.57% 2,790,227 59.3% 1,832,254 38.9%

HARRIS 2,062,792 678,805 32.90% 349,109 51.4% 319,454 47.1%

DALLAS 1,203,513 406,594 33.78% 177,972 43.8% 222,819 54.8%

TARRANT 999,687 372,747 37.28% 213,012 57.1% 153,100 41.1%

BEXAR 957,110 300,860 31.43% 149,647 49.7% 145,674 48.4%

TRAVIS 655,056 267,289 40.80% 91,129 34.1% 168,820 63.2%

COLLIN 489,032 177,062 36.28% 115,647 65.3% 57,431 32.4%

DENTON 407,040 143,716 35.30% 93,506 65.1% 47,134 32.8%

EL PASO 403,979 80,279 19.87% 29,911 37.3% 48,421 60.3%

FORT BEND 363,147 132,422 36.46% 73,728 55.7% 56,800 42.9%

HIDALGO 318,772 80,200 25.15% 27,903 34.8% 50,290 62.7%

MONTGOMERY 281,496 104,819 37.23% 83,877 80.0% 19,165 18.3%

WILLIAMSON 271,612 103,765 38.20% 61,418 59.2% 39,452 38.0%

GALVESTON 191,961 64,570 33.63% 40,240 62.3% 23,105 35.8%

NUECES 190,179 56,944 29.94% 30,827 54.1% 24,713 43.4%

CAMERON 186,563 39,386 21.11% 16,550 42.0% 21,844 55.5%

TOTAL 15 COUNTIES 8,981,939 3,009,458 33.51% 1,554,476 51.7% 1,398,222 46.5%

https://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county100.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county56.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county219.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county14.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county226.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county42.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county60.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county70.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county78.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county107.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county169.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county245.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county83.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county177.htmhttps://team1.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/nov04_175_county30.htm

2014 In Context Collin County Turnout History

Date Total Total Total % ED Mail EV EV % EV %

Reg Votes Reg Ballots Ballots Ballots Ballots Reg

Voters Cast Voters Cast Cast Cast Cast Voters

Nov-88 122,718 91,230 74.3% 71,012 1,778 18,439 20.2% 15%

Nov-90 122,114 71,573 58.6% 58,301 1,395 11,876 16.6% 10%

Nov-92 153,736 128,808 83.8% 83,228 2,511 43,068 33.4% 28%

Nov-94 175,916 98,470 56.0% 64,853 1,920 31,697 32.2% 18%

Nov-96 231,160 132,925 57.5% 79,973 2,592 50,360 37.9% 22%

Nov-98 263,573 84,089 31.9% 58,030 1,639 24,419 29.0% 9%

Nov-00 300,426 177,673 59.1% 100,434 1,995 75,244 42.3% 25%

Nov-02 319,236 129,792 40.7% 78,770 3,510 47,512 36.6% 15%

Nov-04 369,412 246,617 66.8% 92,636 3,980 150,001 60.8% 41%

Nov-06 381,821 138,686 36.3% 75,570 1,500 61,616 44.4% 16%

Nov-08 425,994 298,647 70.1% 78,021 8,989 211,637 70.9% 50%

Nov-10 424,672 157,129 37.0% 66,036 3,308 87,785 55.9% 21%

Nov-12 458,872 302,821 66.0% 79,413 10,937 212,471 70.2% 46%

Nov-14 489,032 177,821 36.2% 71,623 8,642 97,556 54.9% 20%

Collin Co. 2014 Turnout by Age Group

Population estimates from: Texas Dept of State Health Services (DSHS) Center for Health Statistics http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/ST2014.shtm

http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/ST2014.shtm

2014 Turnout by Age Group Collin County

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

VAP

Reg Voters

Voted

Age Group

VAP Reg

Voters % Voted %

18-19 25,548 14,504 57% 1,883 13%

20-24 50,490 34,112 68% 3,784 11%

25-29 48,949 33,630 69% 4,953 15%

30-34 65,262 38,938 60% 8,480 22%

35-39 74,045 45,877 62% 12,472 27%

40-44 80,977 56,574 70% 17,953 32%

45-49 72,580 55,160 76% 20,130 36%

50-54 67,865 55,497 82% 23,336 42%

55-59 53,330 45,096 85% 20,972 47%

60-64 40,856 35,639 87% 18,804 53%

65-69 33,312 29,738 89% 17,759 60%

70-74 21,918 19,967 91% 12,809 64%

75-79 13,834 11,853 86% 7,422 63%

80-84 8,743 7,265 83% 3,942 54%

85+ 8,341 6,541 78% 2,379 36%

All 666,050 490,391 74% 177,078 36%

Newly Registered Voters 7,859

3,120 3,727

4,745

4,118 4,067

2,988

2,494 1,910

1,537 1,197 791 434 319 299 971

353 609 739 637 733 571 574

498 426 368 251 143 106 77 0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Reg In 2014

Reg 2014 and Voted

39,605 Registered In 2014, But Only 7,056 Voted

Age Group

Reg Voters

Reg After 2008

Primary

Haven’t Voted ‘08-’14

% Not Voted

18-19 14,317 14,317 12,451 87% 20-24 34,124 33,394 19,239 56% 25-29 33,634 19,515 16,011 48% 30-34 38,882 25,078 15,864 41% 35-39 45,817 26,100 14,550 32% 40-44 56,538 26,197 14,404 25% 45-49 55,211 20,456 11,728 21% 50-54 55,485 16,461 9,900 18% 55-59 45,179 12,459 7,360 16% 60-64 35,668 9,691 5,195 15% 65-69 29,780 7,837 3,651 12% 70-74 20,030 4,908 2,223 11% 75-79 11,878 2,814 1,336 11% 80-84 7,281 1,906 1,035 14% 85+ 6,573 1,971 1,399 21% All 490,397 223,104 136,346 28%

Currently Registered And Not Voting

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Reg Voters

Reg After 2008 Primary

Not Voted 2008-14

Out of 223,104 who registered after the 2008 primary, 5,216 voted in a subsequent Democratic primary.

2014 Voting Age Demographics Collin County

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Tot Anglo

Tot Non Anglo

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Tot Anglo

Tot Hisp

Tot Other

Tot Black

Age Group

VAP Anglo Hisp Asian Black

18-19 25,548 13,172 5,556 3,974 2,846

20-24 50,490 25,330 12,104 6,945 6,111

25-29 48,949 25,590 11,642 6,829 4,888

30-34 65,262 36,390 13,024 9,657 6,191

35-39 74,045 40,687 13,601 12,710 7,047

40-44 80,977 45,755 12,836 14,143 8,243

45-49 72,580 43,911 9,935 11,863 6,871

50-54 67,865 45,618 7,365 8,764 6,118

55-59 53,330 38,096 4,852 6,072 4,310

60-64 40,856 30,181 3,166 4,717 2,792

65-69 33,312 26,045 2,000 3,476 1,791

70-74 21,918 17,418 1,282 2,312 906

75-79 13,834 10,974 852 1,546 462

80-84 8,743 7,351 460 712 220

85+ 8,341 7,244 383 482 232

All 666,050 413,762 99,058 94,202 59,028

36K Hispanics are registered. Affiliation: 3.9K Dem / 2.8K Rep

40K Asians registered. Affiliations: 4.5K Dem / 1.7K Rep

8,719 Hispanics and 7,197 Asians voted in 2014.

* Smaller portion are Voting Age Citizens.

Turnout By Party Affiliation

Dem Primary Voters

Dem Voted 2014

% Rep

Primary Voters

Rep Voted 2014

%

56 29 52% 266 117 44%

397 154 39% 1,733 608 35%

1,757 462 26% 1,797 685 38%

2,055 764 37% 2,498 1,412 57%

3,735 1,758 47% 3,982 2,459 62%

6,142 3,016 49% 6,847 4,471 65%

6,669 3,356 50% 8,792 6,181 70%

7,611 4,057 53% 11,348 8,335 73%

6,635 3,775 57% 10,259 7,918 77%

5,700 3,520 62% 9,054 7,331 81%

4,614 3,060 66% 9,271 7,835 85%

2,932 1,982 68% 7,445 6,448 87%

1,731 1,093 63% 4,811 4,118 86%

1,063 595 56% 2,707 2,159 80%

924 377 41% 1,945 1,258 65%

52,021 27,998 54% 82,755 61,335 74%

Turnout By The Numbers County Wide

US Senator John Cornyn REP 119,450 68.36%

David M. Alameel DEM 48,876 27.97% Governor

Greg Abbott REP 115,647 65.65% Wendy R. Davis DEM 57,431 32.60% Lt. Governor

Dan Patrick REP 113,146 64.76% Leticia Van de Putte DEM 56,052 32.08% Attorney General

Ken Paxton REP 115,197 66.02% Sam Houston DEM 54,516 31.25% Comptroller Public Accounts

Glenn Hegar REP 113,074 65.82% Mike Collier DEM 52,189 30.38% Railroad Commissioner

Ryan Sitton REP 113,723 66.50% Steve Brown DEM 49,458 28.92% State Board of Education D12

Geraldine Miller REP 113,181 66.36% Lois Parrott DEM 51,241 30.05% Justice 5th Court of Appeals

Craig Stoddart REP 115,558 68.98% Ken Molberg DEM 51,976 31.02%

Turnout By The Numbers County Wide

25,577 31,953

51,885

57,431

41,253

51,976

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Straight Dem 2010

Straight Dem 2014

White 2010 Davis 2014 Goldstein 2010 Molberg 2014

71,016 80,833

100,359

115,647 108,507 115,558

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Straight Rep 2010

Straight Rep 2014

Perry 2010 Abbott 2014 Myers 2010 Stoddart 2014

424,548 489,032

157,785 177,062

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

Reg Voters 2010 Reg Voters 2014 Turnout 2010 Turnout 2014

2014 Vote

46% of the total vote was straight party Rep.

18% of the total vote was straight party Dem.

70% of the Rep vote was straight party.

56% of the Dem vote was straight party.

Reg voters increased 15% over 2010, but turnout increased only 12%

37.1% 36.2%

33% 32.6%

65.6%

63.9%

31%

27.5%

72.4% 69%

Turnout By The Numbers House District 89

94,300 106,772

37,151 40,526

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Reg Voters '10 Reg Voters '14 Turnout '10 Turnout '14

5,726

7,212

11,350 12,380

9,158

11,292

0

11,105

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Straight Dem '10

Straight Dem '14

White '10 Davis '14 Goldstein '10 Molberg '14 Uncontested Race '10

Karmally '14

16,712 19,267

23,351 27,106

25,252 27,152 27,026

27,992

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Straight Rep '10

Straight Rep '14

Perry '10 Abbott '14 Myers '10 Stoddart '14 Laubenberg '10

Laubenberg '14

39% 37.9%

Turnout By The Numbers Justice of the Peace Pct 3

204,652 223,153

76,667 82,829

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Reg Voters 2010 Reg Voters 2014 Turnout 2010 Turnout 2014

13,498 16,472

27,467 30,102

21,987

27,248

20,864

27,023

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Straight Dem 2010

Straight Dem 2014

White 2010 Davis 2014 Goldstein 2010

Molberg 2014

Flores 2010 Hamilton 2014

32,636 34,643

46,461 50,784 50,579 50,858 51,816 52,508

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Straight Rep 2010

Straight Rep 2014

Perry 2010 Abbott 2014

Myers 2010 Stoddart 2014

Payton 2010

Payton 2014

37.4% 37.1%

Presidential Year View

102,000

68,000

13,172 13,000

21,000 31,000

46,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

HD89 2012

667,776

462,102

304,421

61,151 100,754 133,158

195,933

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

VAP Reg Voters

Total Votes

Straight Party DEM

Obama Straight Party REP

Romney

Collin Co. Nov. 2012 69%

66%

217,000

142,000

32,000 32,000

52,000 58,000

87,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

JP3 2012

Collin Co. Nov. 2012 Election

Out of every seven Voting Age Persons in Collin Co.

One voted for Obama, two voted for Romney, and four didn’t vote. Nearly two in four who didn’t vote, are already registered.

How Democrats start winning in Collin Co.

101k 196k 166k 207k

Can Be I.D.’ed

as Dem

Can Not

I.D. as Dem for

GOTV

Must I.D. as

Leaning DEM for

GOTV

16

Understanding Election 2014 Collin County

“Texas isn't a Red State, it's a non-voting state” ~ Paul Begala

@ BattlegroundTX (#BGTX) fundraiser, Austin, Texas - Jun 22, 2013

Michael Handley

political@collindemocrats.org

17

Turnout By The Numbers House District 89

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000

Reg Voters

Voted

Collin County HD89 Voter Turnout by Age Group

17,598 18,353

25,799

22,341

13,511

9,495

2,376

4,786

9,400 10,223

7,725

5,682

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+

Reg Voters

Voted

14% 26%

36% 46% 57%

60%

Collin County HD89 Voter Turnout by Age Group

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Dem Primary Voters

Dem Voted 2014

Rep Primary Voters

Rep Voted 2014

Collin County HD89 Party Affiliated Voter Turnout by Age Group