understanding major economic, demographic and consumer
TRANSCRIPT
Understanding Major Economic, Demographic And Consumer
Trends In Canada
John Williams
December 1, 2011
Outline
The Canadian Population The Canadian Population
Retail Growth and Influence on Real Estate
The New Entrants
The Technology Effect
I Cl i In Closing
2
The Canadian PopulationThe Canadian Population
Immigration is Driving Canadian Population Immigration is Driving Canadian Population Growth …
Source: Statistics Canada - Quarterly aggregated demographic components, July to September, 1975 to 2009, Canada
d it Will b M i th F t …and it Will be More so in the Future
Source: Statistics Canada - Migratory and natural increase of the Canadian population, 1956 to 2056
Th C t Pi tThe Current Picture
5 44 6 1930
35ImmigrantsPopulation less Immigrants
% Change2001 to 2006
+14%5.44 6.19
20
25+14%
llion
s
25.66 24.7910
15
Mi
5
10
6
02001 2006
Source: Statistics Canada
And They Are Emigrating FromAnd They Are Emigrating From…Top Ten Places of Birth for Immigrants To Canada - (1991 to 2001 vs. 2001 to 2006)
11%
14%
12%12%
14%
16%
1991-20012001-2006
9%
7% 7%7%8%
10%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3%2%
1%
2%
5%
1%
4%
3%
1%2%
4%
6%
1% 1%
0%
ChinaIndia
Phillipines
Hong KongSri La
nkaPakis
tanTaiwan U.S Iran Poland
7
H
Source: Statistics Canada
And Residing in…
Percent of Total Population
8Source: Statistics Canada 2006 Census & CSCA
With Projected Spending Implications of With Projected Spending Implications of Canadian Population Growth (2006–2026)
2,239
2,000
2,500
ow
th
ds) t d
1,3511,501
1 000
1,500
ula
tio
n G
ro(T
ho
usa
nd
s
Retir
ees
ees
plac
emen
tpe
ndin
g
Care
er
pend
ing
eens
and
Teen
s
dler
s an
dri-
Cycl
es
184 179 184500
1,000
ect
ed
Po
pu
06
-20
26
(
Elde
rs
Activ
e
Pre-
Retir
e
Rep SpC SpTwe
Tod Tr
-302-500
0
< 9 10 19 20 34 35 54 55 64 65 75 75 +
Pro
je 20
0 P
9
< 9 10-19 20-34 35-54 55-64 65-75 75 +Age Cohorts
Source: Statistics Canada
Retail Growth and ItsReal Estate Influence
Canada’s Retail Sales Have Held UP…
11Sources: Statistics Canada
Store Types: Leaders vs LaggardsStore Types: Leaders vs. Laggards(CAGR 2005–2010) – Canada
LeaadersLaggaards
12Sources: Statistics Canada
Retail Real Estate Format Growth*Retail Real Estate Format Growth*…(Greater Toronto Area 2001 vs. 2009)
0s)
r A
rea
(000
Ret
ail F
loo
13Sources: Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity – Ryerson University – Report 2011-02* Floor Area (1,000s)
Growth Rate 9% 11% 78% 45%
The Changing Retail Landscape –New Entrants
The New EntrantsThe New Entrants…(Apparel and General Merchandise)
2000 – Major Players
2000 Players + Recent* + New Entrants
Considering**
Apparel & Accessories
• Le Chateau• Roots
• Le Chateau, Roots• Eddie Bauer
• Eddie Bauer• The Gap Co. • Concepts• Reitman’s• Suzy ShierSuzy Shier• American Eagle
• Walmart, Sears • Walmart, Sears, The Bay, General Merchandise
,• The Bay, Zellers
, , y,Zellers
15* Launched in Canada within the past 5 years** Retailer has not confirmed entry into Canadian market
And Their Anticipated Impact….
$16
New Entrants
s) }$80
(in
bill
ion
s }$80$7.6
(
16*Estimated by JCWGNOTE: Retail sales for 2010 for All Stores less Automotive were over $293 billion dollars
The Target Effect – An Overview
1,740 stores
120,000 sq. ft. stores
Store sales = $65.6 Billion
E-comm sales =$1.2 Billion*
Household essentials Hardlines Apparel & accessories Home furnishings Home furnishings Food & pet supplies
17* 2010 Annual Report
Operational OverviewOperational OverviewKey Lines of Business* S.W.O.T
Strengths• Brand awareness• Innovative• Trendy/up-to-date• Open multiple locations simultaneously
Opportunities• Extend brand• Test & refine
international strategy• Test small format stores~• Open multiple locations simultaneously
• Presentation of merchandise• Carries both private~~and national
brands• Financially sound• Can leverage online approach
• Test small format stores~• Introduce E-commerce
g pp• Will take share from WM, Winners &
Sears, The Bay and Loblaws (Joe Fresh)
Weaknesses• Limited knowledge of market place• First international market• Assuming Canadians will shop in same
manner as U.S. consumers
Threats• Will experience
significant competition from established players
manner as U.S. consumers• Ability to obtain desired real estate
18* 2010 Annual Report~ Set to launch small format store in Chicago in 2012 ~~ Generates ½ of revenue from Private Brands
The Technology EffectThe Technology Effect
High Internet Access Across All Mediums
Internet Access(all locations)
cen
t (%
)
Home Internet Access
Perc
WirelessAccess
SmartphonePDAs
20Source: Ipsos Reid
Canadians Buying More Online$15 071 $15 300
$12,772
$15,071 $15,300
$14,000
$16,000
$7,924$10,000
$12,000
$4 000
$6,000
$8,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
Source: Statistics Canada* Includes Travel
CAGR (14%)* 21
$02005 2007 2009 2010
S t h P t ti I iSmartphone Penetration Increasing 1 in 3 mobile devices in Canada is a smartphone
*Source: Comscore22
A Glimpse of the FutureA Glimpse of the Future
23
Both Sears and P&G are Also Experimenting Both Sears and P&G are Also Experimenting with the Future…
Sears Holdings enters the future of shopping with
mobile walls*P&G takes to the subways
to sell goods in Prauge, Czech Republic
24*Source: RetailingToday.com – Nov 2011
In ClosingIn Closing
What Do These Individuals Have In What Do These Individuals Have In Common?
Timothy Eaton Sol Price
26Jeff Bezos
They Are:
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27
