understanding science and technology for a new economy j.p.contzen instituto superior técnico...

UNDERSTANDING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR A NEW ECONOMY

J.P.CONTZEN

Instituto Superior Técnico

Lisboa, 21-22 November 2000

INTRODUCTION

The presentation attempts to describe the current and future role of Science & Technology in the Society of the 21st Century

Largely inspired by current events, many reflections based on articles in the daily press of the last months

Balance between general discussion and case studiesAimed at identifying issues dominating the S&T scene, outlining possible responses, but raising more questions than giving definite answers

PLAN OF THE PRESENTATION (1)

Which Society for the 21st Century?

The Role of S&T in this Society:– Knowledge Creation– Economic Competitiveness– Peace and Stability – Quality of Life

The Position of Europe in S&T

The Actors of Innovation: « The Quadruple Helix »•


New structures, new interfaces for Innovation in the next Century:– The State and Industrial R&D– Reorganising Public R&D Structures– R&D in Industry– Higher Education institutions and Innovation

e-Science and e-technology: new challenges


S&T and regional development: the application of the Subsidiarity Principle

S&T and developing countries: a global catastrophe

S&T and Society: between acceptance and rejection:– Stimulating a better perception of S&T– Taking into account ethical issues– Reinforcing the dialogue with stakeholders

Which Society for the 21st Century? (1)

Globally, economic growth will continue to be sustained in most countries of the world.

THE U.S. GDP has grown from 100 Billion$ in 1950 to 10 000 Billion$ in 2000. In the next ten years, the new economy will create 10 Million more jobs in the U.S.

Most of the developing countries, except the less advanced ones (LDC’s), have seen their GNP per capita growing by 3.6% in the period 1990-1998, 5.4% for China and India


Democracy is progressing globally. The civil society enjoys a greater role in the conduct of World affairs, than it was the case in the past

The prospect of a global war involving the major superpowers has faded away, leading to the reduction of weapons of mass destruction

Some diseases, e.g.poliomyelitis, will be eradicated, prospects of attenuating impact of others, such as Alzheimer, do exist.


Cancer early diagnosis will be improved, new cures for genetic diseases will be developed

Better care for the elder and disabled will be available

Information and communication technologies will enable a wider access to knowledge and culture

Cheaper transport will render tourism affordable to more people

Environmental awareness will further reduce some of the negative pollution effects


BUT, as recalled by Hans Küng,

Every hour,1500 children die of hunger related causes

Every month, the world’s economic system adds over 7.5 Billion$ to the debt of the Third World. More than 80 developing countries representing 1.2 Billion people, have per capita income lower than 10 years ago. Worldwide, the total population living on less than 1$ a day has risen from 1.2 Billion in 1987 to around 1.5 Billion today


Local conflicts are spreading, leading mostly to civilian casualties

AIDS is still extending its attack on the world population, Africa is a disaster area

Every year, an area of tropical forest ¾ the size of Korea is destroyed and lost

In China, about 20 to 30% of all adult men in a total population of 1.3 Billion suffer from impotence and sterility due essentially to stress and environmental pollution


In the United Kingdom,the education gap between the traditional population and immigrants has grown from 9% to 16% between 1992 and 1999

More than 80% of Internet site interrogations are devoted to sex, compared to less than 6% for learning

The EURO TECH index has won 136% in efficiency but has lost 1% in value in the last 10 months of this year. Are we evolving towards « casino capitalism » (Masayuki Sasaki)?


Is our world getting really better?

How far are Science and Technology responsible for the current situation?

How can Science and Technology contribute to a positive answer to this challenge?

The Role of Science and Technology

How should S&T contribute to a better 21st Century?

By creating new knowledge

By reinforcing economic competitiveness of all nations

By improving the quality of life

By guaranteeing peace and stability

Knowledge Creation (1)

Extraordinary expansion of knowledge in the 20th Century:

90 % of the persons having contributed to scientific activity since the origin of mankind, are currently alive

No foreseeable plateau in this expansion in spite of some differing opinions. There is no Frontier to Science

Significant contribution of Technology to the progress of basic sciences: space telescopes, accelerators, supercomputers,…


Fragile balance between the so-called “Big Science” and the other scientific activities; the extreme case of the Space Station

Science does not enjoy the capability of self-financing: how can Science maintain its freedom in this context ? Albert Einstein expressed in the 1920’s the wish that

’’ Science should be done in isolated communities away from economic pressures ’’. This wish can no longer be fulfilled

–


New avenues for Science in the 21st Century: Interdisciplinarity and Non-Linear Thinking– Enhance interdisciplinarity between natural sciences (e.g.

bio-chips, bio-sensors, membranes, opto-electronics, molecular computers, hydro gels, organic electroluminescence displays)

– Same approach to be applied between natural sciences and humanities.The ’’ Two Cultures ’’ of C.P. Snow will soon be a reminiscence of the past. As examples: emergence of cognitive sciences, joint approach to urban management, to risk prevention and management, ergonomics


Non – linear thinking: complexity should be integrated into the scientific approach– Laplace’s demon is definitely dead : nature should

no longer be considered as a huge conservative and fully deterministic system

– Poincaré’s mathematical work, quantum mechanics( Max Planck notably) have shaken the clockwork version of our Universe


– The theory of non linear complex systems opens new avenues for problem solving in natural sciences: chaos theory, fuzzy logics, etc . They are essential for explaining natural phenomena such as climate change (the « Butterfly effect »)

– It leads also to new approaches to social, economical and political problems. As Klaus Mainzer points out « Mono-causality in Politics and History is a false and dangerous way of linear thinking «

A simple example of non-linearity

Example of Verhulst’s equation (1845)

Pierre François Verhulst (1804-1849) was a Belgian mathematician dealing with demographic problems.

He established a simple model of restricted population growth

X n+1 = a X n ( 1 – X n )

The evolution of X depends strongly on the values of a and X o . With increasing values of a, it leads to apparent chaos

Economic Competitiveness (1)

The economic competitiveness of nations relies increasingly on its mastering of technologies, on its innovation capability.

The phenomenon of globalisation, the improvement of living standards have increased the pressure of the market for new products, processes, services

The rate of technological change is constantly accelerating, increasing the obsolescence of marketable goods


The combination of these factors – globalisation, improvement of living standards, accelerated obsolescence - leads to an increasing weight of S&T in economic competitiveness

Several models can be used to illustrate the role of S&T in industrial, economic competitiveness. Models considering several feedback loops should be preferred to linear models

Increased market globalisation

Stronger CompetitionAcceleration of

Technological Change and Increased Complexity

Increased R&D Costs

Quick Obsolescence of Competitive

Advantage

Increased S/T Contents in

Products

Requirement for Simult. Use of Several

Technologies

Accelerated Market Demand

Increased Productivity

Pressure for Joint Norms and Standards

Increased Importance of

Innovation

Pressure for Quick Exploitation of Knowledge and Development of New Products

Industrial R&D


There is statistical evidence of the positive impact of competitiveness-oriented R&D on the economic performance of firms, as shown in the two following diagrams, displaying a positive correlation between BERD – Business Expenditure in R&D – and trade in high tech products


A word of caution: a strong R&D effort for economic competitiveness without an adequate innovation mechanism can be worthless or at least inefficient. Innovation is the successful translation of the R&D results into new products, new processes, new services, but it should be extended to new organizational schemes

There are significant examples of industrial firms with strong R&D achievements, having failed to reap their benefits when going on the market: Philips in the Netherlands, Xerox in the U.S.


Additional issues deserving closer analysis:– Impact of innovation on employment: innovation

has a direct positive impact on employment in high-tech sectors, the effect on medium-tech and low-tech industries does not appear to be so positive in the short term. The difference is linked to the type of innovation applied : new or improved products, or services have an immediate positive effects while new or improved processes or new organizational schemes lead frequently to short term negative effects on employment


Additional issues deserving closer analysis (follow):– The importance of the spill-over effect between

industrial sectors. Firms (especially large ones) are using increasingly the mechanism of spin-in, or spin-along, in the innovation process, i.e. benefiting from R&D results developed by firms in other sectors for their own purposes, as well as promoting the spin-off of their own work

– As an example, IBM received in 1997, 1 Billion$ in licensing fees; this is equivalent in financial terms to the effect of an increase of 25% of its sales volume


Additional issues deserving closer analysis (follow):– The growing importance of extraneous S&T, as

opposed to indigenous S&T, for the innovation process. A UK Department of Trade and Industry describes it quite eloquently: “ 95% of World research are performed outside the UK, how to benefit from their results?”


– This leads to the consideration of two types of innovation: the indigenous “push” innovation and the extraneous “pull” innovation, leading in turn to different strategy options with differentiated mechanisms: valorization of own R&D results or acquisition of outside knowledge

Peace and Stability (1)

An evolving geopolitical context– With the end of the cold war, conflicts between

major powers have become less probable– There is a general reduction in military expenditure.

In the US, the defence budget has decreased from 14% of the GDP in 1954 to 4% of the GDP in 1997

– The concept of performance at any cost is no longer prevailing; the motto is now « better, cheaper and faster »


BUT– There is an increased probability of localised

conflicts – “Rogue States” do not participate in the general

evolution towards arms reduction– Terrorist groups become more sophisticated in

their actions: potential danger of nuclear, chemical, bio- and cyber-terrorism

– There is a strong political pressure for the so-called “Zero Casualty” War (zero casualty in the engaged military forces)


An evolving economical situation– S&T were since World War II the key to military

power (radar,sonar, computers, missiles, jet engines)

– From the 50’s to the mid-80’s, military requirements have been the engine for technological progress and a powerful adjuvant for scientific work even in basic sciences

– The development of Weapons of Mass Destruction - nuclear, chemical, biological - and of their delivery systems, has mobilised scientific disciplines and advanced technologies on an unprecedented scale


– The US Strategic Defence Initiative (“Star War”) was the last example of a S&T race driven by specific military objectives

– Since then, the pressure of the civilian market for new products and processes- cheap but also reliable, resistant, compact, saving energy - has become the driving force for technological advancement. The following diagramme reflects this evolution


Consequences of these evolutions for S&T

The reconversion of a significant fraction of the military-industrial complex, including its S&T components, is unavoidable. The challenge of “transforming swords into ploughshares” is formidable, especially for the ex Soviet Union.


Technological requirements for defence are shifting to new fields, in view of the « almost casualty-free » philosophy:– unmanned military systems– “stealth” systems– cyber warfare technologies– smart weapons with terminal guidance– hypersonic vehicles (propulsion, aerodynamics, materials)– directed-energy weapons, e.g. lasers and high-power

microwave weapons


– special weapons for destroying chemical and biological weapons’ sites

– intelligence data collection, surveillance and reconnaissance (multispectral sensors, advanced radars, surveillance satellites, ...)

– advanced Command, Control, Communications , Computers and Intelligence (C4I) processors


The new military philosophy of “better, cheaper and faster” implies an increased recourse to the civilian market with the consequences that technologies become more and more dual use, which in turn leads to an increased danger of proliferation. The conflicting objectives of proliferation and market expansion create increasingly difficult situations. Southeast Asia is a good geographical example of such situation. Encryption is a typical case of a sensitive technology, having at the same time a important commercial potential


The increased preoccupation of Security, i.e. protecting our increasingly vulnerable Societies against attacks by “Rogue States” or by terrorist groups, creates a new technological demand which might be described as « Counter Proliferation »

This demand can be met by drawing from the large pool of technologies developed for civilian markets


The technologies to be developed should contribute to prevent or mitigate attacks on an increasingly vulnerable Society; its growing sophistication leads to such vulnerability

For the prevention of attacks: – Development of monitoring, intelligence gathering systems– Ban on certain types of research and technological

development– Establishment of « black lists » of sensitive products or

processes


For mitigation of attacks:– Hardening techniques for information and communications

systems– Detection systems such as bio sensors, accelerated

analytical techniques– Decontamination techniques– Bio sheathing– Systems for crisis management, aid to decision making

including data acquisition, communication, information processing and display, scenario modelling


Extreme natural events such as floods, tempests, snowstorms, have shown the fragility of the organisation of our Society by creating large disruptions in its functioning. The potential danger of more severe attacks by sophisticated terrorists’ groups reinforces the need for a concerted effort devoted to technologies aimed at the prevention and the mitigation of such events

Quality of Life (1)

Two main objectives : Health, Environment

Health :– Medicine was basically an Art in the past, it has

evolved towards a Science relying heavily on technologies, not only biotechnologies

– New developments : • Computer designed drugs• New diagnostic techniques : X-Ray, NMR,

Scanner, biotech kits, biochips

understanding science and technology for a new economy j.p.contzen instituto superior técnico...

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